Do Republicans appreciate what losing Roe V Wade will do to them?

[colddiesel]

Well, it is probably cheaper to travel from Ireland to London than from Texas to Illinois, even though you have to cross a sea.

Houston to Chicago is a tiny bit pricier than Dublin to London but the on-ground costs in London are higher - so almost the same overall, though the clinical costs in London are much less.

It's heaps cheaper to buy 'morning after' pills on the internet from India.

 

[pecksniff]

We just need to let the dumbfucks in Texas secede from the Nation's smart people.

Attention, Texan separatists: Independence is off the table -- but we will consider selling you back to Mexico!

 

[Fuzzy1975]

Attention, Texan separatists: Independence is off the table -- but we will consider selling you back to Mexico!

Mexico is not stupid enough to buy Texas.....unless the Texan are removed!...*chuckles*

 

[LukSkyFokker]

Mexico can afford to buy Texas with the money they saved on 45's yuge wall.

 

[Paul_Chance]

If Roe V Wade is overturned, and it is feasible because it is bad law, are the Republicans prepared for the backlash? Many states are preparing anti-abortion laws.

But the vast majority of American women will be upset at the imposing of laws reminiscent of Afghanistan's Taliban. Even though they might never contemplate an abortion, the idea that they or their daughters are refused that possibility is alaming.

Even if such legislation was accompanied by an extensive network of contraceptive advice and supplies, it will still be unpopular. Many staunch Republican women could desert their party, particularly if the Democrats promise new legislation to reintroduce abortion and contraception.

The mid-terms are approaching. Roe v Wade could cost the Republicans dearly.

We're going to get to see if it has any impact soon enough.

Single issue voters (in this case pro-choice) are often mythical creatures, existing mainly in retrospect or analysis. American's vote for individual politicians who represent a bundle of proposed and real positions. Abortion is just one of those items in that bundle.

A high percentage of voters are "party locked" - they will always vote D or R regardless as a sort of tribal identity. Over the last several decades the percentage of independent votes has increased - but within that number a good percentage of them are also party locked (they just don't admit it).

That leaves the swing voters (less than 10%) who actually decide which way the countries politics move. Expect the D's to weaponize the decision to overturn or weaken Roe v Wade, expect the R's to continue to weaponize their current issues (inflation, crime, immigration).

My general take is that it may blunt the coming red wave, but not significantly, in the mid-terms. Of course, I could be totally wrong.

*I thought I would include a little note here on how draft legal opinions "work". When a panel of judges is preparing to issue an opinion one judge is selected to write the decision. That judge, with his or her clerks, then writes the decision, which takes a pre-determined format: the facts of the case, the applicable law (the letter of the law, the interpretations of the law, the applicability of precedence), and the application and analysis of the law.

That draft opinion is then circulated through the entire panel and each individual judge (and their clerks) recommend/suggest changes and engage in point/counterpoint, precedence/counter precedence. Then, they either vote to agree with the final draft, concur with it, or dissent from it. A draft ruling can take months or sometimes even years, repeatedly circulating through the court until they reach a final draft, with the objective being to make the final decision well-reasoned, well-written, and capable of standing the test of time.

All speculation aside, we have no idea at what stage in the process this particular draft was written. The assumption, for political theatre, is that is was at or near the final draft - but no evidence that it actually is.

**On Roe v. Wade - there is a reason they teach it in law schools as an example of a "bad decision" legalistically. Many people in the legal community understood it was only a matter of time before it was overturned, which pushes the decision back to the voters (where in my opinion, it always should have been).

 

[Paul_Chance]

This is just a bit of information but:

27% of Republicans self-identify as "Pro-Choice".
29% of Democrats self-identify as "Pro-Life".

So let's say this is the "magic card" that makes them do a single issue flip. The Republicans lose 27% of their voters. But the Democrats lose 29%. Net win Republicans +2%.

 

[Gamine67]

We are about to have one of our Constitutional Rights taken away, that’s never happened before and effects everyone. Think hard about that because they are coming for more and this may well be the last election where you actually have the Right To Choose.

BTW: Authoritarian governments don’t allow citizens to own firearms, don’t say you weren’t warned.

So we will see if women, no matter where they stand in the abortion issue, are willing to knowingly volunteer to give up a Constitutional Right, that they won’t get back, and sentence themselves and daughters to 2nd class citizenship.

I’m fairly confident that left alone with a ballot they aren’t that freaking stupid.

 

[MrRandyWatson]

This is just a bit of information but:

27% of Republicans self-identify as "Pro-Choice".
29% of Democrats self-identify as "Pro-Life".

So let's say this is the "magic card" that makes them do a single issue flip. The Republicans lose 27% of their voters. But the Democrats lose 29%. Net win Republicans +2%.

Bear in mind that those who identify as “pro-life” Dems may not feel as strongly about it as the pro-choice GOPers. They may be pro-life in principle or based on personal belief but still believe it’s not the government’s place to regulate abortion. And Dems are probably more likely to separate their personal beliefs from government policy than Reps are.

So in all likelihood, it would be a narrow gain for the Dems, but he real difference is in firing up people who wouldn’t otherwise vote and now are more likely to do so.

Hell hath no fury like millions of pissed-off Democrats.

 

[Paul_Chance]

Bear in mind that those who identify as “pro-life” Dems may not feel as strongly about it as the pro-choice GOPers. They may be pro-life in principle or based on personal belief but still believe it’s not the government’s place to regulate abortion. And Dems are probably more likely to separate their personal beliefs from government policy than Reps are.

So in all likelihood, it would be a narrow gain for the Dems, but he real difference is in firing up people who wouldn’t otherwise vote and now are more likely to do so.

Hell hath no fury like millions of pissed-off Democrats.

Yep. Like all elections, it's going to be won or lost in the margins.

 

[pecksniff]

BTW: Authoritarian governments don’t allow citizens to own firearms

Saddam Hussein did. The U.S. troops didn't find the country full of assault rifles because ex-soldiers had kept them.

 

[YDB95]

So let's say this is the "magic card" that makes them do a single issue flip. The Republicans lose 27% of their voters. But the Democrats lose 29%. Net win Republicans +2%.

Only if the two parties have an approximately equal number of members, and they don't.

 

[domroger]

Wondering if the drug cartels are going to start smuggling pills and condoms across borders if contraceptive bans follow abolition of Roe V Wade.
If drugs cannot be stopped at the border pills and condoms will also make it.
Prohibition days could return .

 

[Sh1ne0n67]

https://pjmedia.com/columns/paula-b...rt-roe-leak-should-terrify-democrats-n1596370

It's not moving the needle - It's the Economy Stupid!

Are you paying attention Ogg? The Republicans are making gains.
_________________________________________
Democrat born. Democrat bred. Libertarian led (by Democrats).

 

[Sh1ne0n67]

Wondering if the drug cartels are going to start smuggling pills and condoms across borders if contraceptive bans follow abolition of Roe V Wade.
If drugs cannot be stopped at the border pills and condoms will also make it.
Prohibition days could return .

This is a hysterical reaction that bears no resemblance to reality.

 

[Sh1ne0n67]

Bear in mind that those who identify as “pro-life” Dems may not feel as strongly about it as the pro-choice GOPers. They may be pro-life in principle or based on personal belief but still believe it’s not the government’s place to regulate abortion. And Dems are probably more likely to separate their personal beliefs from government policy than Reps are.

So in all likelihood, it would be a narrow gain for the Dems, but he real difference is in firing up people who wouldn’t otherwise vote and now are more likely to do so.

Hell hath no fury like millions of pissed-off Democrats.

Million-Man Math.
_________________________________________
Democrat born. Democrat bred. Libertarian led (by Democrats).

 

[colddiesel]

This is just a bit of information but:

27% of Republicans self-identify as "Pro-Choice".
29% of Democrats self-identify as "Pro-Life".

So let's say this is the "magic card" that makes them do a single issue flip. The Republicans lose 27% of their voters. But the Democrats lose 29%. Net win Republicans +2%.

You need to sharpen up your arithmetic!

Clue:1% 0f Republicans is not an equal number to 1% of Democrats

 

[Sh1ne0n67]

Let's play "Guess the Leaker" (the implication being the motivation)!

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa/2022/05/10/is-this-the-supreme-court-leaker-n2606760
_________________________________________
Democrat born. Democrat bred. Libertarian led (by Democrats).

 

[RobDownSouth]

Mexico is not stupid enough to buy Texas.....unless the Texan are removed!...*chuckles*

Waaay off topic but this got a lot of play here in Texas yesterday: The government of Mexico is in the final stages of planning a major rail line freight terminus at the Mexico-Texas border to facilitate moving goods. After Texas Governor "Asswipe" Abbott had his photo op truck slowdown at the border last month, Mexico opted to reroute the rail line to New Mexico.

 

[Fuzzy1975]

Waaay off topic but this got a lot of play here in Texas yesterday: The government of Mexico is in the final stages of planning a major rail line freight terminus at the Mexico-Texas border to facilitate moving goods. After Texas Governor "Asswipe" Abbott had his photo op truck slowdown at the border last month, Mexico opted to reroute the rail line to New Mexico.

I don't blame Mexico, if you are investing in major infrastructure, you damn well want to ensure no politician is going to interfere with the logistics.

 

[Paul_Chance]

Wondering if the drug cartels are going to start smuggling pills and condoms across borders if contraceptive bans follow abolition of Roe V Wade.
If drugs cannot be stopped at the border pills and condoms will also make it.
Prohibition days could return .

Yes, you can bet on it. Assuming one of the states manages to implement a complete ban (and someone can magically enforce it), there will be a thriving black market in Plan B, including involvement in illicit manufacturing.

 

[oggbashan]

Yes, you can bet on it. Assuming one of the states manages to implement a complete ban (and someone can magically enforce it), there will be a thriving black market in Plan B, including involvement in illicit manufacturing.

And internet orders to Canada.

 

[Fuzzy1975]

And internet orders to Canada.

Internet orders....prior to COVID the number one tourism reason for US citizens was cross border drug shopping....with the border open, this potential reversal of Roe, will be an economic boom for drug access tourism....*chuckles*

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

Wondering if the drug cartels are going to start smuggling pills and condoms across borders if contraceptive bans follow abolition of Roe V Wade.
If drugs cannot be stopped at the border pills and condoms will also make it.
Prohibition days could return .

Birth control pills and condoms? What state is planning to outlaw those?

 

[YDB95]

This is a hysterical reaction that bears no resemblance to reality.

Ah yes, the tried and true "there you go again" trick: stand back and let the other side tell the truth about your extremism and then argue it can't be true because it sounds ridiculous. It works for a charm for the Republicans precisely because they really are so extreme.

 

[LukSkyFokker]

Poll: Two-thirds say don't overturn Roe; the court leak is firing up Democratic voters​

About two-thirds of Americans say they do not support overturning Roe v. Wade, the landmark Supreme Court decision that made abortion legal in the United States, according to the latest NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll.

Seven-in-10 U.S. adults, however, say they are in favor of some degree of restrictions on abortion rights. That includes 52% of Democrats.

The issue of abortion rights was once again thrown into the hot spotlight of American politics after the unprecedented leak of a draft opinion from the Supreme Court earlier this month that showed the majority-conservative court ready to overturn Roe.

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