War starts on command, but doesn't end when you please

[Chobham]

No, Russia won't starve. They'll be able to grow an over-abundance of food but the issue there is that NATO has made it all but impossible for them to export said food or any of the fertilizers they produce. That does have a global impact.

I took a deep dive into the food security of the Baltic's and I apologize, they are relatively self-sufficient re. food. However they will have the same problem as everyone else in Europe and that's access to fertilizer.

 

[LupusDei]

However they will have the same problem as everyone else in Europe and that's access to fertilizer.

So what. Locally, we're not exactly so dependent on it either. It would cut some top yields (and profits) sure, but that's modern luxury anyhow. For how poor our soils are, they're been so forever.

We're not some jungle clearing aliens (rather, from where that misguided practice comes from, as here it actually makes at least some sense, with right mix of bushes). If you drive through Latvian countryside, you will see field after field of really bad looking beans, half rotted and full of weeds. Some of it goes to animal feed, but mostly it's there to be plowed in. So does corn. There's a lot of corn that never matures in the local climate (althoug that may soon change), grown just for the green mass.

A long way of saying we know how to deal with that.

Sure, you can argue that planting sequence alone can't account for everything, or that the land use is then less than optimal for short term profit. For how the current structure is (or was) the top dollar locally was in chasing the flimsy "biological" label, but that's only part of it, the penalty for not talking shortcuts isn't as steep if any, as even current equations go.

Further, the population here haven't really grown for centuries now (recently it's shrinking again instead). The reasons for that haven't been nice, but while we discuss food security that pretty much guarantees a cushion.

 

[mayfly13]

I deleted my posts about Bill Gates because I don't want to detract your thread --- sorry, LD.
I tried to comment on Ish's FANTASTIC post in a thread I started on the GB, instead.
Not sure if it will get any traction tho, Ish needs to get on to it and start writing threads like he used to.


Ish, Ishtard, ogg, Lupus and others --- the intellectual lifeline of the Board.
They NEED to start writing threads
Most other threads --mine included-- are uninformed or C&P's and stupid.

 

[mayfly13]

I see that Amnesty International accused Ukrainian Army of using civilians as human shields (that they parked their headquarters near hospitals theaters etc, in breach of Internatonal regulations).

Two reactions:
Zelensky claims it's a smear & not true
people who say & I told you so.
I think it's something in between.
I think that it DID happen, but only by the Azov batallion not the rest of the Ukrainian army.

It's just a lesson, for me of how the mindless mass media propaganda "Ukrainians pure as snow, Russians serial rapists" backfired.
The increasing Public indifference to Ukrainians' plight, unfortunately,is a result of such massmedia tactics. People feel insulted, when they are treated as if they;re telenovelas/Medieval Times eateries consumers.
\Nevermind that American govt is pouring billions into a war with no end in sight, while Americans are now rationing their Insulin

 

[LupusDei]

I see that Amnesty International accused Ukrainian Army of using civilians as human shields (that they parked their headquarters near hospitals theaters etc, in breach of Internatonal regulations).

Two reactions:
Zelensky claims it's a smear & not true
people who say & I told you so.
I think it's something in between.
I think that it DID happen, but only by the Azov batallion not the rest of the Ukrainian army.

Of course it did happen. Because it is expected by the nature of the warfare. And it is misunderstood there, the obligation is to protect civilians to the extent possible, an obligation shared by both sides, regarding each any every target. What's possible is still dictated by military logic though. Ukrainians have done their utmost. Russians never cared.

Like, for example, those two MLRS systems hiding in that Kyiv mall backyard doors that then get hit by Iskander burning out the whole thing (during battle of Kyiv, back in March). While it was indeed "legitimate" target the weapon Russians used was seriously overpowered and thus illegal for use in that situation. On Ukrainians part it was absolutely a forced thing in principle, in defense of the city. There had to be artillery present in the city, and any other hiding place would be as bad if not worse. Fine, Russians should have used low yield precision munitions. Russians may try to defend that decision saying they couldn't get any such there in time for how long they expected the target to be there so they fired a damn ballistic missile taking out the whole block. Bullshit, but such a war. Even so, casualties were minimal, because Ukrainians had done everything they could to minimize them, thus at absolutely no fail, although at face value, that was kinda bad decision to put those vehicles there on a scoot that got followed by a drone (then the exact location was confirmed by a traitor on the ground).

Where Ukrainian civilian casualties mount, is where either civilian population is deliberately targeted (Bucha & Irpin, Mariopol teacher case, Chechen mass rapes and killings later there (we likely never will hear an official account for)), many artillery strikes, including recent, or where Russians miss by half a mile (literally!) or fire at "military industry" using maps from seventies.

And that's why everyone and their dog shit on that Amnesty report. It's wrong, and pure sabotage.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1555668670486945792

 

[mayfly13]

I 80% agree with you. Also, the Ukrainian captive soldiers who got nuked? clearly Russians

my beef is with America
they, too contributed to this war

What the fuck was Victoria Nuland doing in 2014, hijacking a popular anti-Russian movement and trying to instate a pro-American puppet?
Why did NATO station their troops in Bulgaria and Romania, threateningly close to Rusia, yet when the war started.... crickets

Ukrainian people didn't want this war.
They elected Zelensky precisely because he promised to retract Ukrainian troops from Donbas, and broker some compromise with Russia


------------------

Now before you start tongue-ing American butts yada yada yada like a good colonised Lithuanian
I DO understand that Ukraine had no choice, Russia is an imperialist invader
But the American OVERWEIGHT PSYCHOPATHIC FUCKS deliberately pushed towards war

 

[ChloeTzang]

Yeah,its avoid using civilian buildings to the extent possible. Russians are attacking cities and towns Ukraine must defend. Amnesty deliberately got it wrong. There's some pro-Russians inside Amnesty, but that's been obvious for years. They've just proved they're a waste of space, biased, and totally self-owned themselves. Any good they try and do in future is going to be tarred by this for quite some time, and whoever authored this should resign or get kicked out right away. Anything less than a total retraction and a few people getting the bums rush out the door is going to leave Amnesty a laughing stock.

 

[ChloeTzang]

.....Also, the Ukrainian captive soldiers who got nuked? clearly Russians

Now THAT is bullshit, and entirely too close to Russian propaganda. The Russians have no qualms about torturing and massacring Ukrainians. They've done it before, they'lll do it again. Until they're dead.

 

[mayfly13]

Now THAT is bullshit, and entirely too close to Russian propaganda. The Russians have no qualms about torturing and massacring Ukrainians. They've done it before, they'lll do it again. Until they're dead.

my writing sucks, but I actually DO agree with you.
Even Russian sympathising East European analysts agree that it was clearly Russians, who nuked that prisoners-holding facility

 

[mayfly13]

Yeah,its avoid using civilian buildings to the extent possible. Russians are attacking cities and towns Ukraine must defend. Amnesty deliberately got it wrong. There's some pro-Russians inside Amnesty, but that's been obvious for years. They've just proved they're a waste of space, biased, and totally self-owned themselves. Any good they try and do in future is going to be tarred by this for quite some time, and whoever authored this should resign or get kicked out right away. Anything less than a total retraction and a few people getting the bums rush out the door is going to leave Amnesty a laughing stock.

no I don't think Amnesty are lying.
They just missed the nuances.

I'm convinced that some marginal Ukrainian fighters parked their headquarters in theaters, hospitals etc.
But that was with no ill-intent towards civilians. They didn't deliberately use civilians as human shields. Russians, on the other hand, did.



The point for me, is how intentionally deceiving Anglo massmedia is.
It's because of them, that laypeople are getting fed up with Ukrainians' plight.

 

[LupusDei]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1555898394480091136

 

[Chobham]

It's war folks and war means propaganda. Both sides are going to spin, exaggerate, minimize, and out and out lie. Without more than one independent source of information you can't be certain of anything you hear, read, or even see.

The only thing we know for more or less certain based on front movements is that both sides are being blooded in a war of attrition. It's down to who's going to run out of ammunition, men, and will first.

If there is any good news for the US military here is that it's a land war and it's depleting our military's stocks re. land war. Our Naval resources are not involved or engaged. And one misstep will require that we have those resources on the other side of the world.

 

[LupusDei]

More on Russians who volunteer, then refuse to fight and try to get out, a five Twitter threads series:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1555312718781071362

 

[mayfly13]

More on Russians who volunteer, then refuse to fight and try to get out, a five Twitter threads series:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1555312718781071362

now that's either smug or avoidant, LupusDei.

I could understand you doing that to me, my general knowledge sucks
but you have one of the most well-read posters --on a similar plane to you-- repeatedly reaching out & trying to engage in a debate.
Your dismissive/avoidant attitude fucking sucks.

I want to listen to a LD versus Chobham intellectual debate.
Most of my acquaintances are becoming indifferent to the plight of Ukrainians, precisely because of the Walmart-South African or Turkish telenovelas level of information we're being fed.

 

[Rightguide]

It's war folks and war means propaganda. Both sides are going to spin, exaggerate, minimize, and out and out lie. Without more than one independent source of information you can't be certain of anything you hear, read, or even see.

The only thing we know for more or less certain based on front movements is that both sides are being blooded in a war of attrition. It's down to who's going to run out of ammunition, men, and will first.

If there is any good news for the US military here is that it's a land war and it's depleting our military's stocks re. land war. Our Naval resources are not involved or engaged. And one misstep will require that we have those resources on the other side of the world.

How could it be good news that our ground force is having its inventories dangerously reduced when in a blink of an eye the war in Ukraine could bring a Russian attack on Nato or US forces in Poland or elsewhere? It isn't out of the question that Putin might declare the US an active belligerent in the war effort of Ukraine.

 

[LupusDei]

How could it be good news that our ground force is having its inventories dangerously reduced when in a blink of an eye the war in Ukraine could bring a Russian attack on Nato or US forces in Poland or elsewhere? It isn't out of the question that Putin might declare the US an active belligerent in the war effort of Ukraine.

You seem to be captured by the myth of Russia as some undrainable perpetual force.

Can Putin declare war on NATO and/or US? Sure he can, however absurd it would for him to do. He might seek that to "lose with pride," to an enemy he can present as clearly overwhelmingly superior, just because losing to Ukraine he perceive as unworthy subhuman scum is so unthinkable. So he indeed might pull it off, and do same damage with long range fires. There could be some fleet action, although I suppose, theirs would be eliminated rather quickly. But to go on yet another land attack when over 75% of his land forces fighting capacity is committed in Ukraine? With what exactly?

The Murmansk, the entire border with Finland is covered by two training battalions without artillery (that is removed and sent to Ukraine).

Pskov airborne was sent to Ukraine, decimated, refused to fight and was back for reconstitution. I think at least one of the armor units too. The rest of the garrison is more or less in tact, seemingly, but it's just that a garrison on NATO borders. Likewise, the three divisions in Brest, Belarus are still there for what I know. So yes, he might raid either Estonia or Latvia with a couple divisions from Pskov, and/or either Lithuania or Poland with a couple divisions from Brest. Not seems a good idea for anything but demonstrative action.

There's nothing more. They keep the forces in Ukraine manned, more or less, with short term (3 to 6 month) contracts signed by desperate older men who lost work due to sanctions. $10,000 a month (in rubles) is very good money for them, but they are thrown in combat with 2-3 weeks of training, sometimes not even that, despite no prior experience.

And it's not so long now they will really start running out of hardware, as they can't build new equipment either.

But that US stocks of military material could be drained by what's committed so far is nothing short of embarrassing. Well, the Europe in general and Germany in particular, that's way worse of course. We? We are setting up production for Finnish Patria IMFs. So, doing what we can. And Poland is serious to become a regional military power in short order.

 

[Chobham]

Only certain weapon stocks are of concern. Javelin, Stinger, and Excalibur rounds are of immediate concern. I would expect HIMARS will soon follow. All of the preceding are still in production but at a very slow rate, basically training replenishment rates. So production has to be bootstrapped to replace inventory and meet expected future requirements. And production is not as simple as merely expanding the production lines. There are hundreds of sub-contractors that supply various components who must expand their production lines as well as procure the raw materials and the issue there is the electronics. Miro-processors are in everything, from the fuses, to the targeting hardware to the guidance hardware and those processors come off the same fab lines as the processors that are holding up production on everything else.

 

[LupusDei]

Only certain weapon stocks are of concern. Javelin, Stinger, and Excalibur rounds are of immediate concern. I would expect HIMARS will soon follow. All of the preceding are still in production but at a very slow rate, basically training replenishment rates. So production has to be bootstrapped to replace inventory and meet expected future requirements. And production is not as simple as merely expanding the production lines. There are hundreds of sub-contractors that supply various components who must expand their production lines as well as procure the raw materials and the issue there is the electronics. Miro-processors are in everything, from the fuses, to the targeting hardware to the guidance hardware and those processors come off the same fab lines as the processors that are holding up production on everything else.

Yeah, I have read about problems with Javelins. The proposed solution was to pull a Tesla and redesign for availability, but not sure how realistic that may be in a weapon system on short timelines.

I have also heard claims that between all shoulder fired ATGM systems now used by Ukraine combined, there's actually healthy manufacturing surplus above average expenditures, so it's rather just that they can't be all Javelins or any other single system.

HIMARS, oh boy, Ukrainians will happily shoot out everything you can get to them, and the systems themselves will go off shelves like hot patties. Poland alone wanted some absurd number (like 500 systems) and that was even before the best marketing campaign imaginable (thanks to perfect timing of introduction in the theater), so...

Also, just a reminder, Ukrainians haven't signed the relevant papers and can (and massively do) fire cluster munitions, so if any of those old stocks aren't yet utilized, and some accidentally ended up in Ukraine, they wouldn't go to waste either. For now of course, the precision shit is of higher priority, both operationally and logistically. There's rumors of uncertain quality... the next gen 650km rocket may get combat tested? (Apparently, Ukrainians are firing undeclared anti-radar missiles out of naval boxes overland, so some borders of possible may be more broad than one might believe.)

 

[ChloeTzang]

HIMARS, oh boy, Ukrainians will happily shoot out everything you can get to them, and the systems themselves will go off shelves like hot patties. Poland alone wanted some absurd number (like 500 systems) and that was even before the best marketing campaign imaginable (thanks to perfect timing of introduction in the theater), so...

Also, just a reminder, Ukrainians haven't signed the relevant papers and can (and massively do) fire cluster munitions, so if any of those old stocks aren't yet utilized, and some accidentally ended up in Ukraine, they wouldn't go to waste either. For now of course, the precision shit is of higher priority, both operationally and logistically. There's rumors of uncertain quality... the next gen 650km rocket may get combat tested? (Apparently, Ukrainians are firing undeclared anti-radar missiles out of naval boxes overland, so some borders of possible may be more broad than one might believe.)

Oh yeah, I read somewhere that Ukraine fired off what US thought was a 10 day supply of Himars missiles in 3 days, they had so many available targets. And that's with the small #'s of himars they have. The limitation is not the # of himars launchers or finding Russian targets, it's the #'s of missile pods available to be fired.

And himars is so cost effective - the accuracy is pinpoint, and the cost of each M31A2 missile is, according to available information, approximately $105-125k. ONot bad, but it mounts up when you think that a one-time salvo from 12 HIMARS with 72 missiles would cost 9 million dollars.

On the other hand, Russia does not have anything like Himars, they're using cruise missiles for the same job, and those things cost. Not to mention they won't be making any more because they can't - some of the parts were made in Ukraine, and guess what, Ukraine won't be exporting those to Russia. LOL. According to Forbes Ukraine, a Kh-101 missile costs $13 million, a Kalibr $6.5 million, an Iskander $3 million, an Onyx $1.25 million, a Kh-22 $1 million, and a Tochka-U $0.3 million. So the launch of eight Kh-101 (Kh-555) missiles on Ukraine by the occupying forces on 2 August cost Russia almost US$100 million. Seven of those were shot down by Ukraine air defences, so it cost Russia $100,000,000 USD to score ONE hit, which probably didn't hit anything of military value in any case.

Russia's only real strength now is it's artillery, and with Himars, Ukraine is whittling away at that, reducing both the guns, and hammering Russian logictsic and ammo dumps.

 

[LupusDei]

The limitation is not the # of himars launchers or finding Russian targets, it's the #'s of missile pods available to be fired.

On the other hand, Russia does not have anything like Himars,

There was back-of-the-envelope math proof that HIMARS can "serve" twenty times more targets in an unit of time than BM-30 Smerch, even though that has twelve tubes and greater range on paper, as the Smerch reload requires a special vehicle and even then takes two hours, not to mention the only precision munitions for the system was produced by... Ukraine. Vilkha-M system, which R624M rocket, although I believe only rather small experimental run was made, and current production status is unknown/classified as one could expect, but I'm afraid there's none.

 

[icanhelp1]

There was back-of-the-envelope math proof that HIMARS can "serve" twenty times more targets in an unit of time than BM-30 Smerch, even though that has twelve tubes and greater range on paper, as the Smerch reload requires a special vehicle and even then takes two hours, not to mention the only precision munitions for the system was produced by... Ukraine. Vilkha-M system, which R624M rocket, although I believe only rather small experimental run was made, and current production status is unknown/classified as one could expect, but I'm afraid there's none.

Just curious, what's the status of maneuver troops *company and battalion size* anything left of their mech infantry? resupply of newly trained troops, don't ever read about that.

 

[Chobham]

Yeah, I have read about problems with Javelins. The proposed solution was to pull a Tesla and redesign for availability, but not sure how realistic that may be in a weapon system on short timelines.

I have also heard claims that between all shoulder fired ATGM systems now used by Ukraine combined, there's actually healthy manufacturing surplus above average expenditures, so it's rather just that they can't be all Javelins or any other single system.

HIMARS, oh boy, Ukrainians will happily shoot out everything you can get to them, and the systems themselves will go off shelves like hot patties. Poland alone wanted some absurd number (like 500 systems) and that was even before the best marketing campaign imaginable (thanks to perfect timing of introduction in the theater), so...

Also, just a reminder, Ukrainians haven't signed the relevant papers and can (and massively do) fire cluster munitions, so if any of those old stocks aren't yet utilized, and some accidentally ended up in Ukraine, they wouldn't go to waste either. For now of course, the precision shit is of higher priority, both operationally and logistically. There's rumors of uncertain quality... the next gen 650km rocket may get combat tested? (Apparently, Ukrainians are firing undeclared anti-radar missiles out of naval boxes overland, so some borders of possible may be more broad than one might believe.)

Yeah, the AT-4 system. Kinda like a use once and discard RPG. Very effective against light armor, not so much against a MBT. Swedish design and there's a ton of them available.

 

[icanhelp1]

Yeah, the AT-4 system. Kinda like a use once and discard RPG. Very effective against light armor, not so much against a MBT. Swedish design and there's a ton of them available.

I read somewhere that several thousand AT-4s were sent to Ukraine for use by reserve less trained soldiers because of their ease of use and requires very little training

 

[ChloeTzang]

I read somewhere that several thousand AT-4s were sent to Ukraine for use by reserve less trained soldiers because of their ease of use and requires very little training

Sweden was sending a total of 5000 AT4 missiles in March, but has now supplied Ukraine with 15,000. US was sending 6,000 back in March.

For thems whats has no idea what an AT-4 us, it's this. The AT-4 is a man-portable, disposable, single-use anti-tank weapon, developed by FFV (now SAAB-Bofors) in Sweden. The name of the weapon is a play on its 84 mm bore (AT-4 is pronounced as "Eighty-Four"), as well an indication of its role (AT for "anti-tank"). It was and remains one of the world's premier expendable infantry anti-tank weapons. It is also distinct from most other weapons in its class, being a recoilless gun rather than a rocket launcher. As of 2016, over 300, 000 AT-4s have been manufactured, and full-scale production is ongoing.

The AT-4 projectile weighs 1.81 kg, and contains 453 g of Octol that force a thin copper charge liner into a jet-like penetrator upon detonation. This charge will penetrate up to 400 mm of RHAe at a 0-degree obliquity, but there is more to the lethality of the warhead than just its penetration. The AT-4 was the first anti-tank munition especially designed to employ enhanced lethality against armored vehicles, through what the manufacturer has termed "Beyond Armor Effects". Using a number of special attributes built into the warhead, the damage caused to the interior of a penetrated armored vehicle and its occupants are dramatically increased, resulting in a significantly greater probability of disabling an armored vehicle. These effects include an instantaneous overpressure of 1 bar above normal (twice the ambient air pressure of the Earth's atmosphere at sea level), greatly increased back-spalling and penetrator spatter, a flash of light over 100 times stronger than sunlight, greatly increased smoke from combustion of the warhead and armor during penetration, and more intense heat than that of a generic shaped charge of similar penetration.

You can see from the photo, being essentially a man-portable recooilles gun, it has one heck of a backblast, and it should never be fired from inside an enclosed area, as the rebounding backblast will cause significant shock and hearing injuries to any personnel inside said space. It's generally ineffective against current modern main battle tanks (MBTs), especially those with reactive armour, unless weaker sections of the tank's armour are exploited.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4d/US_Army_AT4_CS_live-fire_training.jpg

 

[butters]

The United States said it believed Russia would target civilian and government infrastructure in the next few days. U.S. citizens should leave Ukraine "now" by their own means if it was safe to do so, the U.S. Embassy said.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...es-capital-bans-independence-day-2022-08-23/?