War starts on command, but doesn't end when you please

[colddiesel]

Given that during the muddy season land operations are impossible, Putin seems to be trying to demoralize Ukraine with Missiles and Bombing; it seems inevitable that some sort of payback will be considered. It seems to me that it would be quite understandable if someone official or otherwise decided that Putin himself is a legitimate target. He might be too well protected, but to perhaps undermine confidence in Putin's administration it might not be a bad idea to eliminate some of his top political cronies because that might convince the remainder that the boss has to go. Ukraine was previously very successful at killing senior military officers, it would not be a big escalation to extend the targets to Russian politicians. What do you think?

 

[LupusDei]

While at face value Vlad might be at least marginally more competent than that mustache guy, I think it's the same "should we kill Hitler?" dilemma. And the likely answer is probably the same, why not if opportunity presents itself, but not worth it to go for great lengths when their own internal structures struggling between themselves have greater probabilities of success.

I for example don't believe Ukrainians had anything to do with the death of Darya Dugina, other than as possibly, targets of framing in blatant sacrifice.

Putin's power isn't as monolithic as people seem to think. He is ruling a criminal organization, and it is structured like any other criminal organization. The official, formal government structures hardly matters, the informal power balancing matter more. And while massive infighting upon unexpected death of the Boss of Bosses may be the most likely result, it isn't the only, nor necessary the most wanted.

Going after the second level, partially the same, those people aren't selected for actual convertible merit either. Further, at that level there's necessarily inbuilt redundancy (else balancing of forces wouldn't be possible) and fierce competition that will be more than happy to glob up pieces of a failed branch. To understand those people you must take the most insanely cynical selfishness you can imagine and magnify by a factor of ten thousand. To where killing just mobilized soldiers by hundreds is, simply profitable out of an opportunity for a scam, and it's sought how to prolong validity of said scam in (relative, as it is by physical constraints) perpetuity before anything else.

Killing actually competent army generals is whole another ballgame, and Ukrainians engage in that upon opportunity, both by direct fire and by aiding power games that may do it for them. Although even there... the probably best outcome for Russia now could be a massive army mutiny leading to military coup, necessarily lead from a rather high level. And if you have a hope of such, there should be someone actually caring about the actual soldier's lives, I mean, it should be the core tenet of such mutiny (and why it's extremely unlikely).

 

[Chobham]

Ahhh, the pitfalls of regime change in what amounts of dictatorships. You just don't know what the new dictator is going to be like. It's not just a Russian problem, its been a problem throughout history.

 

[Chobham]

27 days ago there was a Youtube blog up that declared Putin would be gone in 47 days. I paid little attention to it. But reading the reports (if they can be believed) coming out of Russia whoever posted that video may have been on to something. 20 days left if they're right.

 

[LupusDei]

100,000 dead Russians and 3,000 destroyed/captured tanks.

Yes, statistical milestones, but far from meaningless.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FkkgTTgXgAEIcJA?format=jpg&name=large

By the way... talking about tanks ("Oryx" means, photo-visually confirmed by public sources)
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fkk_gX-XkAEwM1o?format=png&name=large

"About halfway done..."

 

[jaF0]

Was there a window nearby?

Head of major Russian shipyard dies suddenly, no cause given​

https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/ip3/www.cnn.com.icoCNN|3 hours ago
A major Russian shipyard that specializes in building non-nuclear submarines said its general director had died suddenly on Saturday after 11 years in the job, but gave no details.

..

 

[LupusDei]

Was there a window nearby?

The guy wasn't a youngster, was 69 if I'm not mistaken of what I have seen in passing, and median life expectancy for males in Russia would make that plausible as a mundane death of old age.

So, yes, it's a peculiar fact, but not necessarily that peculiar.

 

[jaF0]

So, which is true?

Ukrainian Drone Attack on Russian Air Base Kills Three, Russia Says​

https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/ip3/www.wsj.com.icoWall Street Journal|3 hours ago
The strike at the Engels air base, a hub for Russia's strategic bombers in the Saratov region, is the latest apparent demonstration of Kyiv's ability to strike military targets inside Russia.

Three Die in New Drone Attack on Russian Strategic Bomber Base​

https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/ip3/www.bloomberg.com.icoBloomberg L.P.|1 hour ago
Three servicemen were killed during a Ukrainian drone attack at a military air base in southern Russia that hosts strategic bombers, the Defense Ministry in Moscow said Monday.



Did it get through and strike? Or ....

Ukrainian Drone Shot Down At Air Base In Saratov Region: Russian News Agencies​

https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/ip3/www.barrons.com.icoBarron's|29 minutes ago
Russian air defence troops shot down a Ukrainian drone as it approached a southern Russian airbase, with debris from the attack killing three people, Russian news agencies reported Monday.



... did it only almost get through?

 

[LupusDei]

... did it only almost get through?

All sorts of rumors, much too many seems wishful, ranging from a hit on command post or air traffic control to pilot lounge, and even that the warehouse of cruise missiles was blown.

Some, possibly creative, triangulating of videos posted on social media seems to place the explosion (that may or not be large, flash in darkness can be misleading) on or above the ramp near the end of runway where the bombers were know to be parked, but insofar no one dares to guess possible damage to the planes.

The sky there is overcast, some snowing, unfortunately we can't expect high resolution commercial satellite imagery from early this morning. Effectively that means we may not learn significantly more anytime soon, and likely have to rely on circumstantial evidence.

 

[jaF0]

And then I see this:

FSB Says Killed Ukraine 'Saboteurs' Trying To Enter Russia: Russian News Agencies​

https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/ip3/www.barrons.com.icoBarron's|1 hour ago
Russia's FSB domestic security service said Monday it had killed a group of saboteurs from Ukraine that attempted to cross into a Russian border region.

.

 

[jaF0]

You and what Army Sergie?

Russia's foreign minister issues ultimatum to Ukraine to give up territory or the 'army will deal with the issue'​

https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/ip3/www.businessinsider.com.icoBusiness Insider|41 minutes ago
Sergey Lavrov said Ukraine should accept Russia's demands, including giving up territory, or "the Russian Army will deal with this issue."

 

[JohnEBbad]

Putin is denying that he's about to send a half a million new conscripts into the fray.

I have to wonder if this will trigger the grand mutiny of his forces.

https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2023/01...men-and-more-money-for-the-war-effort-n522071