War starts on command, but doesn't end when you please

[colddiesel]

So Britain blew up the Nord Stream pipeline.

Where did you source that information ?

 

[Fuzzy1975]

Where did you source that information ?

From some dude's channel on youtube I suspect....

 

[LupusDei]

So Britain blew up the Nord Stream pipeline.

Lol, of course. They also forced Ukrainians to reluctantly carry out the "useless" attack on Sevastopol harbor, right?

I think it was already explained to you how the omnipotent ever scheming Jews made Brits to do it on their behalf, right?

 

[LupusDei]

Where did you source that information ?

It's today's hot Putin's talking point.

 

[LupusDei]

Well, let's there be some Halloween decorations...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1586755824046727169

 

[LupusDei]

Well, let's there be some Halloween decorations...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1586755824046727169

There's been a lot of those reportedly. And I mean, a whole damn lot.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FgUpFndWQAA1DfU?format=jpg&name=large

Yup. That claim of +950 kills and +52 APC/IFV destroyed is extreme -- a new daily max (while everything else is mundane), especially coming seemingly out of nowhere as the frontlines have barely moved in the past three weeks and there's already mud season.

However, the static nature of fronts is misleading and disappear when zooming in.

Ever since the Kharkiv and Liman advances Ukrainians haven't quite stopped, only slowed down. Against growing reinforcements they have moved afield from the river, and now are about to reach the next principal Russian defense line at Svatove. Today there's reports of two blown bridges on the next river still believed to be bit in Russian rear (so not quite clear if by Russians or Ukrainian artillery). And that's, while perhaps currently largest is just one of at least five separate battles going on.

There's relatively smaller skirmishes around Bilohorivka. It was liberated before Liman, but attempts to climb the hills back to Lysychansk weren't successful and were abandoned for now. Russians are now attempting to dislodge the Ukrainian positions around the town.

Bahmut been compared to Verdun. Last week Ukrainians in two or three days pushed Russians (Wagner mercenaries specifically) about two months back. Yes, we talk about ~2 kilometers and two of three major factories in the eastern outskirts. The third remains in Russian hands for now, but brutal battles continue.

Similarly, the Ukrainian defense line along Donetsk city haven't been breached... in eight years despite regular, daily, attacks on it.

Around Vuhledar the front was relatively quiet for awhile, despite steady rumors Ukrainians might have been building for a hypothetical attack towards Volnavakha. Such could be a catastrophe for Russians along the entire south. Donetsk - Volnavakha railroad is the only other railroad under Russian control going west from Mariopol besides Kerch bridge. (There's also a highway through Mariupol, but Russian road logistics are awful and generally considered non-viable beyond 90 miles or so.) With the Kerch bridge damaged, it's more important than ever, but Ukrainian summer counteroffensive had brought the frontline in only few kilometers from it at places, likely allowing fire control of it. Now, there's an ongoing Russian attempt to improve their situation, reportedly with some early success. It's quite possible the bulk of those unexpected loses are from here.

Rest of the Zaparozhia frontline isn't quiet either, with Ukrainian raids pushing Russians a little back in places.

Then of course, there's the eternal grind of Kherson (where the above video is claimed to be from). There's possibly as much as 40,000 Russians in the grand trap on the right bank of the Dnipro, with recent untrained mobilized reinforcements not quite counting (and there's jus about 1,000 of those), but the core units here are the Russian best: remains of VDV (airborne) and naval infantry, supposedly elites. Russians are deporting/evacuating civilians out of the area, intentionally making the city unlivable: communications are cut, reportedly because of equipment being stolen, stores are being looted, public transport and emergency service vehicles are stolen/evacuated to Crimea and beyond.

And speaking of Crimea, there was a major drone attack on Sevastopol harbor. No comprehensive damage assessment is available as of now, but the videos apparently from the unmanned surface vessel's point of view show one going very close to the bort of Admiral Makarov, one of the newest and modern Russian frigates and the replacement flagship of Black Sea fleet after cruiser Moskva was sunk. Eight such fire boats and several areal drones were involved in the attack. Russia initially claimed they successfully fended everything off, but later reports indicated up to 3 or 4 ships could have suffered serious damages.

The attack shaked them quite, it seems, and indeed the implications of the new capabilities are profound. We are led to believe Ukrainians can attack with relatively cheap and simple, fast and nimble surface bomb-boats in a man in the loop manner beyond line of sight, over 130km from a friendly coastline. All while supposedly currently operating no real navy, although that might not be entirely true.

However it's doubtful the kill count has been increased from it, they certainly didn't add any ship yet. That might mean the rumors the Admiral Makarov sunk aren't true (wouldn't be the first time either), but let's see what we could learn later.

 

[LupusDei]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FgF2Ej9WAA8E7bB?format=jpg&name=medium
She's an artillery officer.
Reportedly the scene is her battery's work.

 

[ffish1]

She's an artillery officer.
Reportedly the scene is her battery's work.

LUPUSDEI
Re my Elon Musk thread & your like of Subzero's comment.
Sorry to bug you, but I fear that I didn't clarify my position correctly. This is important to me because I don't want it to color our future interactions.

SO:
I AM angry that Anglos sabotaged any attempts of negotiations with Russia starting 2014
--the latest being that Boris Johnson stopped Zelensky from signing a compromise with Russia, in March.
Fuck Crimea. Crimea used to belong to Russia and is majority Russian anyway. A small price to pay rather than civilians deaths &.

But hell no, I don't agree with Jimmy Dore's stance on Musk's Starlink stations in Ukraine.
As long as the war is going on, the US Govt. should do everything to help Ukraine defeat Russia.

 

[ffish1]

I'm glad that the US is providing armament and training to Ukrainian soldiers,

My beef with US Elites is that their goal isn't to help Ukrainians,
they don't give two shits about them
their goal is to weaken Russia-China and to continue being hegemons.

 

[colddiesel]

My beef with US Elites is that their goal isn't to help Ukrainians,
they don't give two shits about them
their goal is to weaken Russia-China and to continue being hegemons.

Foreign policy is about the pursuit of national interest: nothing else. It just confuses the issue when silly people opine that national interests should be served by moralizing clap trap. The stars have aligned for Ukraine in that it is in the US interest to align themselves with the Ukranian interest.

 

[Dribble]

Foreign policy is about the pursuit of national interest: nothing else. It just confuses the issue when silly people opine that national interests should be served by moralizing clap trap. The stars have aligned for Ukraine in that it is in the US interest to align themselves with the Ukranian interest.

And that is the whole problem with the world. We should be aligned with them because it is the right choice. Why do we need a reason to do the right thing?

 

[jaF0]

What is the right thing? I'm generally opposed to the (R)ight thing. I prefer the proper or correct or moral or ethical thing, which is too often not what some consider the (R)ight thing.

Fucking seditionist Dribbler up there thinks the right thing is to destroy and separate the US.

 

[LupusDei]

I AM angry that Anglos sabotaged any attempts of negotiations with Russia starting 2014
--the latest being that Boris Johnson stopped Zelensky from signing a compromise with Russia, in March.

We, people I know and live with, were afraid of the exactly opposite: that Boris goal for that visit was to press Zelensky into surrender. It would have been a disaster.

We don't know what was spoken about between them then. There is a locally popular option that Zelensky successfully convinced Boris that Ukraine can fight, and win.

However, the talks then were held in bad faith by both.

Putin didn't want a negotiated settlement because he felt strong to take more. Thus, he sabotaged the talks repeatedly. He sent people without permissions to make decisions. He even poisoned Abramovich! Then providing commentary that was not much veiled threatening of his own courtiers to not make any slightest concessions. And above all, Putin refused to meet Zelensky for anything but signing of unconditional capitulation.

It would be insanity for Zelensky to agree to Russian demands, even partial -- he would become a traitor the same instant, and, the war wouldn't end, only continue without state level oversight. Ukrainians wouldn't stop to fight then, they even less would now.

Ukraine, you totally misunderstand what's going on there. The war effort, it is 80%+ ground up. Heck, right this week they collected donations for a purchase of 60 Spartan APC, over $6.5m in under 36 hours. Sure, foreigners helped too, but it's far from unique. The point is, it is people's war nobody has total control over. Of course, without government it would be harder, without or very limited underground international support it would be harder still, but wouldn't stop anyway. Nor would stop Russian terror in the occupied territories. For Ukrainians, the people, the war is the least bloodiest option whatever the cost.

But most importantly, no deal with Putin is possible in principle, because he would never honor any. He will only use any pause in hostilities to rebuild for the next round and attack when he sees it favorable. Even if his mind boggling blunder this February could question his ability of such judgments rationally, it only makes it worse.

Russia will always remain a threat for its neighbors, but a comprehensive defeat and punishment could nudge it towards another flirt with democratization, if not for any other reason than to rebuild faster.

 

[Chobham]

Sooooooooo, Russia is withdrawing from Kherson? This represents a HUGE logistics problem for the Russians should they want to launch an offensive this coming spring, but the same goes for the Ukrainian's if they want to move further East. 4 months of nasty artillery duels in the mean time.

 

[LupusDei]

Sooooooooo, Russia is withdrawing from Kherson? This represents a HUGE logistics problem for the Russians should they want to launch an offensive this coming spring, but the same goes for the Ukrainian's if they want to move further East. 4 months of nasty artillery duels in the mean time.

They already did. What's still unclear is how much they left behind. For now it seems extremely efficient disappearance from the right bank, bit give it few days for a sweep and information to filter through. There's wild rumors of mass casualties as the last withdrawal was shelled, mass surrendering, mass deserting, possibly planned going underground by changing in civilian clothes but keeping weapons to perhaps simulate civil resistance to Ukrainians.

Unlike Russians, Ukrainians don't need to cross the river, they are already on the left bank. Ukraine can attack south in Zaporizhzhia and easily threaten the new riverside fortifications with another encirclement. Anyway, there's hardly a narrow coastline outside HIMARS range as it is now.

Fighting would not stop for winter. No way. Frozen ground is ideal for mechanized warfare and Ukraine will seek to exploit that, along with the moment the Russian army is reduced to disorganized mob without winter gear.

 

[LupusDei]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591077229739773953

Volodymyr Demchenko
Entire generations of Ukrainians dreamed of what is happening now. Millions of Ukrainians died at the hands of the russians only in XX century, including members of my family. Therefore, it cannot be any mercy. Only the winner has the right to forgive

Now we are waiting for the inclination of the Ukrainians to "peace" and the freezing of the situation,and all I want to say is: I don't know ANY Ukrainian who would agree to peace now. We was fighting when they burned the suburbs of Kyiv, so why should we lay down our arms now?

 

[colddiesel]

The snake oil salesmen of "peace and negotiations" are raising their voices. The problem is that no-one can negotiate with a mass murderer, serial liar and a man who can never, never be trusted. So long as Putin remains in place, the war will continue on some level or another; what the "peaceniks" fail to understand is that it must continue until Putin is either removed or dead.

 

[LupusDei]

The snake oil salesmen of "peace and negotiations" are raising their voices. The problem is that no-one can negotiate with a mass murderer, serial liar and a man who can never, never be trusted. So long as Putin remains in place, the war will continue on some level or another; what the "peaceniks" fail to understand is that it must continue until Putin is either removed or dead.

Russia is desperate for a pause -- to fix the gains.

The only way to obtain one is to trick or coerce the west into coercing Ukraine into some kind of negotiation. Right now, only total cut of military assistance could hope to achieve such. Even then, Ukraine would likely continue, or try to, on pure crowdfunding. (Don't laugh, it's huge. Along other help, Latvians alone have sent over 850 of various vehicles over, civilian cars sure...)

Btw, Gen. Surovkin (then in command of Southern Military District) reportedly requested retreat from Kherson back in August or so. Yes, well before the whole annexation charade. It was denied then. As soon he became the operation commander it was expected that he will get his way. Damage to Kerch bridge made it all but inevitable.

The attack in Vuhledar direction to improve situation of the only alternative railroad failed, with Russian 155th marines alone losing over 300 people in 4 first days (after with they remained trapped in a sea of mud overlooked by Ukrainians from higher ground). It was one of three major units involved, but the other two wasn't that elite and entitled to complain publicly (155th tried to reach Kremlin bypassing DoD chain of command completely) so we don't know their fate.

Yet, the Kherson retreat was also delayed specifically to after the US midterm elections. Part by fears it could have an unwelcome to Russia effect on the election itself -- by helping Democrats, partly out of hope that strong MAGA win (as was promised) would give hope the assistance will be cut or diminish. There's chance they would have tried to stay in that case.

 

[LupusDei]

Kherson:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591131063325454337

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591064148171161600

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591100046635929608

 

[ffish1]

I keep hearing that the end is in sight, from both camps:
--those who want negotiations --- they're claiming that Biden is conducting secret negotiations with Russia + trying to convince Zelenskyy
--those who want to defeat Russia through ongoing fights - they're seeing Russians' defeat in Kherson as a prelude to this.

But what about the million that Putin conscripted, and who are currently being trained for battle?

 

[LupusDei]

I keep hearing that the end is in sight, from both camps:
--those who want negotiations --- they're claiming that Biden is conducting secret negotiations with Russia + trying to convince Zelenskyy
--those who want to defeat Russia through ongoing fights - they're seeing Russians' defeat in Kherson as a prelude to this.

But what about the million that Putin conscripted, and who are currently being trained for battle?

Million? There's no million. Not quite. His haul was somewhere between 240-400k, so assuming the official target of 300k as realistic is, surprisingly, workable. There's regular draft on top of it -- that's why they had to wrap it, to free the administrative resources -- (something like 130-170k might be planned), but I don't currently know what, if any, success at that is. Yes, the annexations allow them to send draftees to front. So, being generous, half a million it might be.

But to say they're being trained is overly generous too. Some 20-90k sent to Belarus may get some training. Russia itself doesn't possess such capabilities anymore. The regular army is done and gone.

Mobiks are sent to Ukraine right away, within days and with no training, wearing uniforms they sourced themselves, issued with rusty rifles and few bullets, dropped up somewhere in the middle of nowhere where they sit or wander for a few days without food nor communications until they come under Ukrainian fire are decimated and survivors run towards rear whereas they are arrested and kept in some basement when they refuse to return to the front right away. It's a catastrophe. How many will die in coming months from simple hypothermia?

Sure, the above experience still is somewhat exclusive, only some 70-90k are dropped in the grinder already. Others idle in field camps with no amenities and die from heavy drinking and internal fighting. In hundreds already. And they're angry as shit. But let's be generous and suppose they somehow still can get some serious training. That would take months, something like three months. At current rate, they will be all that's left then, or almost.

Still, even if it sounds pessimistic from the above, I think the war would last a year or close to that still.

 

[ffish1]

Mobiks are sent to Ukraine right away, within days and with no training, wearing uniforms they sourced themselves, issued with rusty rifles and few bullets, dropped up somewhere in the middle of nowhere where they sit or wander for a few days without food nor communications until they come under Ukrainian fire are decimated and survivors run towards rear whereas they are arrested and kept in some basement when they refuse to return to the front right away. It's a catastrophe. How many will die in coming months from simple hypothermia?

Sure, the above experience still is somewhat exclusive, only some 70-90k are dropped in the grinder already. Others idle in field camps with no amenities and die from heavy drinking and internal fighting. In hundreds already. And they're angry as shit. But let's be generous and suppose they somehow still can get some serious training. That would take months, something like three months. At current rate, they will be all that's left then, or almost.

Still, even if it sounds pessimistic from the above, I think the war would last a year or close to that still.

you know, 6 months ago I didn't feel too much for the dead Russian soldiers.
Sure, they have moms and dads too, and they chose the Army out of desperation to feed their families.
But they CHOSE that job. And some were low IQ and brutalised too.

But now? I feel terrible for this new batch, just as much as I did about the Ukrainian civilians killed.
Most don't want to kill, they are forcibly sent to the meat grinder.

I'm now viewing ww2 in a different light...
What a massive massacre of good men, doesn't matter what side they were on.
It was only that the printed press was manipulated and casualties minimised, that people didn't rebell against being sent in battle.

 

[ffish1]

Russia and America are equally responsible for the lead-up to this bloodshed.

Should I feel grateful to America for helping Ukraine?
Fuck no, it's their duty now. They are half responsible for creating this war.

 

[LupusDei]

you know, 6 months ago I didn't feel too much for the dead Russian soldiers.
Sure, they have moms and dads too, and they chose the Army out of desperation to feed their families.
But they CHOSE that job. And some were low IQ and brutalised too.

But now? I feel terrible for this new batch, just as much as I did about the Ukrainian civilians killed.
Most from them don't want to kill or be killed, they are forcibly sent to the meat grinder.

Yet, they're still angry about the attitude, about the misery and missing gear, but as far we can tell the majority haven't questioned the war as such till now. They're pro war. They're still fighting by choice, even if passive and reluctant. It's not at all that hard, even now, to evade conscription in Russia. Many did. Over 400k fled the country. Probably even more have moved internally. There's anecdotes about futility of recruiters going into taiga (Siberian forests) after foresters camping out there for weeks, presumably without knowledge about the mobilization. They don't comment had the recruiters been seen ever again.

There's no visible protest movement in Russia, but dozens of recruiting offices have been firebombed, railroad tracks have been damaged. And it's impossible to distinguish between absurd incompetence and deliberate malicious compliance.

I'm now viewing ww2 in a different light...
What a massive massacre of good men, doesn't matter what side they were on.
It was only that the printed press was manipulated and casualties minimised, that people didn't rebell against being sent in battle.

My grandfather managed to desert from both. Proud he never fired in combat. But he wasn't a pacifist, just afraid to hit his brothers. Two of whom died on the same battlefield in opposite sides. But been there chance to fight for own country -- against either -- he would.

And so would I. Actually, I rather feel bad for finding excuses for not going to fight for Ukraine...

 

[ll74]

Russia and America are equally responsible for the lead-up to this bloodshed.

No, they aren't.