War starts on command, but doesn't end when you please

[LupusDei]

Tribute tread on Russo-Ukrainian war.

It's now in the day 111/3033

For the past month we have zoomed in to smaller and smaller daily changes of the frontlines and it seems safe to say it's going to last for a while still.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FVNXxcNWIAEmt4w?format=jpg&name=large

 

[Rightguide]

Tribute tread on Russo-Ukrainian war.

It's now in the day 111/3033

For the past month we have zoomed in to smaller and smaller daily changes of the frontlines and it seems safe to say it's going to last for a while still.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FVNXxcNWIAEmt4w?format=jpg&name=large

Would you like to translate that for us?

 

[rockcasbah]

Would you like to translate that for us?

Try reading it, fuckface.

 

[LupusDei]

Would you like to translate that for us?

Look closely, there's English in fine print right on that image.

Loses of the enemy since February 24th this year, as estimated by Ukrainian general staff.

The numbers might be somewhat inflated of course, the most controversial being the claim of over 200 downed warplanes. Only few dozen can be independently verified by photo evidence, and it's generally considered padded by at least a hundred.

In contrast, the kills may actually be underreport, over half of those 1,400 tank losses can be verified and other categories seem likely in the the same ballpark.

 

[LupusDei]

Overall, it's a war huge scale.

Accordingly to Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhnyy: As of June 12th, the frontline in Ukraine was ~1520 miles long, on 687 miles of which there is active combat.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1536058729816285185

 

[Rightguide]

Look closely, there's English in fine print right on that image.

Loses of the enemy since February 24th this year, as estimated by Ukrainian general staff.

The numbers might be somewhat inflated of course, the most controversial being the claim of over 200 downed warplanes. Only few dozen can be independently verified by photo evidence, and it's generally considered padded by at least a hundred.

In contrast, the kills may actually be underreport, over half of those 1,400 tank losses can be verified and other categories seem likely in the the same ballpark.

I missed the part that says it is from the Ukrainian General Staff. If those numbers are correct they represent significant losses on the Russian armed forces. Have you seen credible numbers from the Ukrainian side as to their own losses?

 

[LupusDei]

I missed the part that says it is from the Ukrainian General Staff. If those numbers are correct they represent significant losses on the Russian armed forces. Have you seen credible numbers from the Ukrainian side as to their own losses?

Not quite, frankly.

Ukrainians run quite tight opsec and are generally rather secretive about loses. To the point Western intelligence agencies have complained about blindness to those. The general belief is however, that Ukrainian loses are considerably smaller, and the attrition rate is still in their favor. (Well, there is somewhat nonzero possibility they do not have clear idea of looses themselves...)

There been various claims, including the Russian ones that are absolutely ridiculous. Then, recently Ukrainians seemingly realized they have incentive to rather exaggerate own loses than hiding them in current climate and situation -- they're in accute danger of running out of amo, especially artillery shells, as the Soviet caliber stockpiles are depleted and there's rather little production capacity outside Russia itself (or China that likewise isn't available) and the switch to 155mm NATO is not going as swiftly as they might like, the current deliveries/pledges are barely a tenth of what's actually necessary to make a complete transition already. Situation may be even worse with rocket artillery, even though Ukrainians nominally had production capacity before the war, it never was much and the current status of it is unclear.

Thus the claims appeared they're losing 50-100 soldiers KIA and up to five times that WIA per day on average for the duration of current campaign. That would put the total at completely believable 6,000 to 10,000 KIA, and something like 40,000 wounded, predominantly by artillery shrapnel, and anecdotally, quite few of the wounded return in line, or plan to, even with prosthetic limbs.

The equipment loses are harder to assess. Of course, there's the Oryx list of photo verified loses, that's bound to be undercount though Russian propaganda had tried to show some of it a dozen times from different angles and even apparently did carry Bayractar wreckages around to photograph the exact same pieces in different places. Note, there's already one M777A2 listed, as well as one M109A3GN as damaged.

Russians, especially the proxy paramilitaries eagerly use abandoned Ukrainian equipment (with typically is better maintained) and there's been several documented cases of recapturing previously lost tanks back by Ukrainians. (Oryx handle such by listing each owner change separately, so such increase the numbers for both.) And the claims that Russian abandoned vehicles, especially tanks, more than made up for loses in the first phase might be technically even true, if all of those could be immediately returned to fight, with obviously isn't the case (at very least, the communication packages need a change over). However, those are being deployed and with the allied deliveries Ukrainian ground forces might be indeed not only growing but also reaching or even surpassing parity with Russians, at least, as far currently engaged within Ukraine. Russians taking storage T62 stocks to fixed positions (to free up actually somewhat battle worthy tanks for more active action) seem to suggest so too.

Russians have claimed to have destroyed entirety of Ukrainian air force many times over months ago already, while there are obviously still Ukrainian combat missions flying today. Just last week, Ukrainians lost a SU27 to friendly fire, and apparently, they actually have now managed air control over most of controlled territory, as there's claims no Russian manned aircraft had crossed the frontlines for nearly a month now, although U.S. intelligence officials still talk about hundreds of Russian sorties per day. Well, the airspace effectively denied, everybody is flying grass high and firing only at range. Drones, cruise and ballistic missiles is a different story.

Sure, Ukrainians are actually received additional aircraft too -- in form of spare parts they build into planes on site, but even with that planes of that vintage are again very finite resource, and even Bayractars never was exactly numerous in Ukraine service (I think it peaked at about 20 at one point) despite Russians claiming to have shoot down hundreds. And old RPG rounds carrying domestic production octocopters aren't exactly bombers even if the fleet of those is ostensibly growing.

People wise, Ukrainians are planning, and obviously could indeed raise an army of a milion, perhaps by the end of the year even, given the equipment, but so far it's still quite a bit off a race to mutual collapse. Russians have avoided that significantly longer than some projected at several points already, but given their reluctance/inability to actually mobilize their personal problems may soon become critical again, with total casualties approaching 100,000 even if they have proportionally few wounded, that is as much because near nonexistent frontline medical assistance as for somewhat more limited (but more accurate) Ukrainian artillery fires volume. Unlike Ukrainians, Russians see a wound as the safest ticket home and there's been persistent rumors of self mutilations for such goal.

Unfortunately the one thing Russians wouldn't be running out anytime soon is exactly the artillery. It's been claimed up to 50,000 shells a day are fired. Literally flattened frontline cities and blown up cannon barrels attest that number may not be all that unbelievable.

 

[Chobham]

Well Lupus the Russians have fallen back on a strategy that will virtually guarantee a Ukrainian loss. After their abysmal failure at 'blitzkrieg' they're doing what they do best, a war of attrition. Destroy everything with artillery, take a step forward, rinse and repeat.

While what the Ukrainians have been able to accomplish so far has been nothing short of remarkable, they cannot win a war of attrition.

What the West is doing is providing the Ukrainians with all of the equipment and arms that they can that don't require a logistics tail. The hope being that the Russians are so blooded by this invasion that they won't have the ability to move against another neighbor. There can be no doubt that if the Russian's 'blitzkrieg' had succeeded the Baltic's and/or Poland would be next on the menu.

Apparently Putin is being guided by Catherine the Great's observation regarding Russian security, the same guidance that Stalin followed. Obtain control of all of the historic invasion routes as far from the seat of power as possible. He's living in the 18th century.

 

[JohnEngelman]

Putin is greatly over estimating the danger of a western invasion of Russia. If anyone has reason to invade Russia, it is China. China is over populated and lacks natural resources. Eastern Russia has lots of land to settle in, and lots of natural resources.

 

[JohnEngelman]

Apparently Putin is being guided by Catherine the Great's observation regarding Russian security, the same guidance that Stalin followed. Obtain control of all of the historic invasion routes as far from the seat of power as possible. He's living in the 18th century.

Control of those invasion routes did not prevent the invasion of Russia by the French and the Germans.

 

[Chobham]

Control of those invasion routes did not prevent the invasion of Russia by the French and the Germans.

True enough, but neither reached Moscow before the snow flew. The Russians have always been willing to trade territory for time and the more of someone else's territory they can trade, the happier they are.

 

[JohnEngelman]

True enough, but neither reached Moscow before the snow flew. The Russians have always been willing to trade territory for time and the more of someone else's territory they can trade, the happier they are.

The French did reach Moscow. No one in the West wants to invade Russia. What are they afraid of?

 

[Rightguide]

Not quite, frankly.

Ukrainians run quite tight opsec and are generally rather secretive about loses. To the point Western intelligence agencies have complained about blindness to those. The general belief is however, that Ukrainian loses are considerably smaller, and the attrition rate is still in their favor. (Well, there is somewhat nonzero possibility they do not have clear idea of looses themselves...)

There been various claims, including the Russian ones that are absolutely ridiculous. Then, recently Ukrainians seemingly realized they have incentive to rather exaggerate own loses than hiding them in current climate and situation -- they're in accute danger of running out of amo, especially artillery shells, as the Soviet caliber stockpiles are depleted and there's rather little production capacity outside Russia itself (or China that likewise isn't available) and the switch to 155mm NATO is not going as swiftly as they might like, the current deliveries/pledges are barely a tenth of what's actually necessary to make a complete transition already. Situation may be even worse with rocket artillery, even though Ukrainians nominally had production capacity before the war, it never was much and the current status of it is unclear.

Thus the claims appeared they're losing 50-100 soldiers KIA and up to five times that WIA per day on average for the duration of current campaign. That would put the total at completely believable 6,000 to 10,000 KIA, and something like 40,000 wounded, predominantly by artillery shrapnel, and anecdotally, quite few of the wounded return in line, or plan to, even with prosthetic limbs.

The equipment loses are harder to assess. Of course, there's the Oryx list of photo verified loses, that's bound to be undercount though Russian propaganda had tried to show some of it a dozen times from different angles and even apparently did carry Bayractar wreckages around to photograph the exact same pieces in different places. Note, there's already one M777A2 listed, as well as one M109A3GN as damaged.

Russians, especially the proxy paramilitaries eagerly use abandoned Ukrainian equipment (with typically is better maintained) and there's been several documented cases of recapturing previously lost tanks back by Ukrainians. (Oryx handle such by listing each owner change separately, so such increase the numbers for both.) And the claims that Russian abandoned vehicles, especially tanks, more than made up for loses in the first phase might be technically even true, if all of those could be immediately returned to fight, with obviously isn't the case (at very least, the communication packages need a change over). However, those are being deployed and with the allied deliveries Ukrainian ground forces might be indeed not only growing but also reaching or even surpassing parity with Russians, at least, as far currently engaged within Ukraine. Russians taking storage T62 stocks to fixed positions (to free up actually somewhat battle worthy tanks for more active action) seem to suggest so too.

Russians have claimed to have destroyed entirety of Ukrainian air force many times over months ago already, while there are obviously still Ukrainian combat missions flying today. Just last week, Ukrainians lost a SU27 to friendly fire, and apparently, they actually have now managed air control over most of controlled territory, as there's claims no Russian manned aircraft had crossed the frontlines for nearly a month now, although U.S. intelligence officials still talk about hundreds of Russian sorties per day. Well, the airspace effectively denied, everybody is flying grass high and firing only at range. Drones, cruise and ballistic missiles is a different story.

Sure, Ukrainians are actually received additional aircraft too -- in form of spare parts they build into planes on site, but even with that planes of that vintage are again very finite resource, and even Bayractars never was exactly numerous in Ukraine service (I think it peaked at about 20 at one point) despite Russians claiming to have shoot down hundreds. And old RPG rounds carrying domestic production octocopters aren't exactly bombers even if the fleet of those is ostensibly growing.

People wise, Ukrainians are planning, and obviously could indeed raise an army of a milion, perhaps by the end of the year even, given the equipment, but so far it's still quite a bit off a race to mutual collapse. Russians have avoided that significantly longer than some projected at several points already, but given their reluctance/inability to actually mobilize their personal problems may soon become critical again, with total casualties approaching 100,000 even if they have proportionally few wounded, that is as much because near nonexistent frontline medical assistance as for somewhat more limited (but more accurate) Ukrainian artillery fires volume. Unlike Ukrainians, Russians see a wound as the safest ticket home and there's been persistent rumors of self mutilations for such goal.

Unfortunately the one thing Russians wouldn't be running out anytime soon is exactly the artillery. It's been claimed up to 50,000 shells a day are fired. Literally flattened frontline cities and blown up cannon barrels attest that number may not be all that unbelievable.

Thanks for the detailed and considered report. We're hearing very little from our intel agencies and news reports on the war have slipped off the daily TV news reports. It's almost as if our media have lost interest in the war. I have some concerns about its direction, however.

 

[Dribble]

Wars never end. Ever. In the USA, we are still fighting the Civil War. Stupid I know. But the Confederacy does not want their people to see the truth. Far easier to just admit the facts...wars are never won by violence...but yet that is where they are fought. Why? Why fight on a front that can never be won? I support the Ukrainians and their cause. It is right. It is just. But it can never be won. Not until the World steps in and says enough. There are very few clear cut cases where right and wrong are so easily identifiable. Why the reluctance to assure Putin's aggression never occurs again?

 

[LupusDei]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FVW8aC_WUAAJlYv?format=jpg&name=large

One of many random girls behind the Stugna-P (aka Skiff when with interface in Arabic) antitank rocket system screen? Not. This is Tetyana Mykolayivna Chornovol an investigative journalist and public figure, People's Deputy of Ukraine of the VIII convocation from the European Solidarity political party. And yes, her husband died at war in 2014. No, she isn't posing for a picture, she has quite a record as a tank buster.

 

[mayfly13]

Has anybody interviewed recently lay-Ukrainiansm to see how they want to handle things?
Not Zelensky, lay Ukrainians.

All I see in this thread are some macho or righteous men pontificating from their couches.

 

[ll74]

Has anybody interviewed recently lay-Ukrainiansm to see how they want to handle things?
Not Zelensky, lay Ukrainians.

All I see in this thread are some macho or righteous men pontificating from their couches.

Are you positing that Zelensky hasn't done this?

 

[oggbashan]

Has anybody interviewed recently lay-Ukrainiansm to see how they want to handle things?
Not Zelensky, lay Ukrainians.

All I see in this thread are some macho or righteous men pontificating from their couches.

Yes, the BBC does almost every evening on their main news. Most cannot understand why Russia invaded their 'brothers'. Even Russian-speaking Ukrainians are appalled by the damage done to civilian homes and civilian deaths.

Most just want the war to end but they have discovered, whatever contacts/relations they have in Russia, that they are Ukrainians now, suffering untold misery and for what? Putin will have destroyed everything worthwhile in the areas he controls.

 

[mayfly13]

Are you positing that Zelensky hasn't done this?

omg you reminded me of something. This time I genuinely wanted people's opinion, because it's a bomb. I'll start a thread about it

 

[ll74]

omg you reminded me of something. This time I genuinely wanted people's opinion, because it's a bomb. I'll start a thread about it

The reason I mention this is that Zelensky seems to have on the ground the majority of the time, moving among the soldiers and citizens and being in contact across the board. It would be contrary to his role to negotiate something that Ukrainians don't want.

 

[mayfly13]

The reason I mention this is that Zelensky seems to have on the ground the majority of the time, moving among the soldiers and citizens and being in contact across the board. It would be contrary to his role to negotiate something that Ukrainians don't want.

good point.

People are getting fed up with seeing Zelensky everywhere,
Cannes, Eurovision, soon enough on our milk cartons
moralising, pontificating and regurgitating memorised lines.

some think that he's starting to enjoy the glory
So I guess that's why they are starting to doubt him

But it might be that he's well aware of how he comes across
but he's doing whatever he thinks works, to help Ukraine.
- In which case, your point taken.

 

[ll74]

good point.

People are getting fed up with seeing Zelensky everywhere,
Cannes, Eurovision, soon enough on our milk cartons
moralising, pontificating and regurgitating memorised lines.

some think that he's starting to enjoy the glory
So I guess that's why they are starting to doubt him

But it might be that he's well aware of how he comes across
but he's doing whatever he thinks works, to help Ukraine.
- In which case, your point taken.

I do enjoy a healthy dose of skepticism, but I think you're over the top.

I personally think that only oath forward is to handover certain parts of Ukraine, like Odessa, in order to broker a deal, but it's difficult to make a deal when a dagger is at your throat.

 

[LupusDei]

I do enjoy a healthy dose of skepticism, but I think you're over the top.

I personally think that only oath forward is to handover certain parts of Ukraine, like Odessa, in order to broker a deal, but it's difficult to make a deal when a dagger is at your throat.

Odessa? Really? Wow. I hope you're geographically confused. There's no current military danger to Odessa beyond sea blockade and occasional cruise missile from ships. There's exactly zero chance an attack on Odessa might succeed anytime soon. The defensive structures within the the city are being dismounted for return to normalcy as much as its possible.

In contrary, the question of the month is when (or if, at worst) Ukrainians will liberate Kherson. I know it's boringly repetitive, the talk of that been constant since it fell the fifth day or so. Now, Ukraine may have up to fivefold advantage at least in personal on that front currently, and as expected is on the offensive, admittedly slow and dotted with setbacks. However, it's also used by UAF as training front to significant degree, so it's possible the current offensive isn't as committed as it possibly might be.

 

[ll74]

Odessa? Really? Wow. I hope you're geographically confused. There's no current military danger to Odessa beyond sea blockade and occasional cruise missile from ships. There's exactly zero chance an attack on Odessa might succeed anytime soon. The defensive structures within the the city are being dismounted for return to normalcy as much as its possible.

In contrary, the question of the month is when (or if, at worst) Ukrainians will liberate Kherson. I know it's boringly repetitive, the talk of that been constant since it fell the fifth day or so. Now, Ukraine may have up to fivefold advantage at least in personal on that front currently, and as expected is on the offensive, admittedly slow and dotted with setbacks. However, it's also used by UAF as training front to significant degree, so it's possible the current offensive isn't as committed as it possibly might be.

Correct...I was thinking of Donbas region...apologies.

 

[LupusDei]

Correct...I was thinking of Donbas region...apologies.

The fact remains, Odessa was/is one of original Russian campaign goals. Success in that would Render Ukraine entirely landlocked and with that substantially damage viability of economy for any stump in western Ukraine longterm.