War starts on command, but doesn't end when you please

[LupusDei]

but Germany is still dealing with Russia,
which is offensive towards poor European countries who cut ties and are making economic sacrifices

Regarding German industry. Truth to be said, it's worse than you think. The energy imports can be relatively easily replaced, yes, at higher prices, so be it. Loss of exports is way worse, and the key here. Those two economies, Germany and Russia, are intimately connected by chance, choice and design.

German engineering be indeed denied, the flow to Russian natural resources to anywhere will case in short time, a year or two tops. (Not even to mention Russian weapons production that's already mostly at standstill.)

It's still far, far easier to weather for Germany than Russia, it's not like they're the one and only buyers, just one notable.

 

[oggbashan]

At the start of Operation Barbarossa in 1941, German troops advancing into Russia passed Russian trains exporting to Germany. Up to then, Germany and Russia were each other's largest trading partners.

 

[LupusDei]

it's something a Sorbonne-trained historian was saying, he was even showing it on a map.
In his view, we shouldn't listen to Americans who do propaganda and don't understand Russians.
He said that Russia is winning, it;s apparent chaos is the typical maskirovka they used for centuries. Just like the current mass deportations in view of Russification.

For me & others it's clear: Russia is winning, Kyiv was never it's goal, the coastal cities were.
The scary question is: will they attack other countries too, or will they contend themselves with the modern more subtle colonial rule through influence,

French are weird. They always had a love affair with Russia, I admit my ignorance to why exactly, as it seems too complicated. Perhaps they think them friends since (before Pushkin) Russian upper class pretended to be francophone.

Earlier this year French intelligence chief got himself fired for, apparently, regurgitating Russian propaganda a bit too close.

Then, certain devoted Ukrainians say, French are friends and there's nothing to worry about as all that supposedly is just anti-Americanism for internal audiences. Go figure.

 

[mayfly13]

French are weird. They always had a love affair with Russia, I admit my ignorance to why exactly, as it seems too complicated. Perhaps they think them friends since (before Pushkin) Russian upper class pretended to be francophone.

Earlier this year French intelligence chief got himself fired for, apparently, regurgitating Russian propaganda a bit too close.

Then, certain devoted Ukrainians say, French are friends and there's nothing to worry about as all that supposedly is just anti-Americanism for internal audiences. Go figure.

it actually makes sense!
I don't know History, but intuitively it makes sense. Even in literature, Russian-French writers have more affinities than with English German or Italian writers.

The only thing in this line that I read about France, is that they, too are trying to use the Ukraine-Russia conflict to become The next colonial powers of the UE.

 

[LupusDei]

The scary question is: will they attack other countries too, or will they contend themselves with the modern more subtle colonial rule through influence,

Everyone's so impatient. We will know in a year or two. Of course, it can be Ukrainians have fooled everyone and certain bunch of mad, angry, genocidal Serbs are right in their assessment Ukraine actually is fighting with an army of 50k or less and don't seriously plan to field any much more if even able to fill in loses with untrained forced conscripts. I don't think it means what they think it means anyway.

On scary thoughts about imperial borders. Yeah, what if... they decide to restore Vithebsk governorate in 19th century borders? They can't, couldn't even before Ukraine, take entirety of Latvia in one go... not because we could defend ourselves, we can't, no matter how good our pros might be or not, the numbers are just lol, and even if our schoolboy platoons could slaughter veteran elite divisions again, they would need those two weeks of basics in anyway... just because of how the Russian army is built and supplied, they just can't make it happen.

But Lettigalia, that roughly bit less than third in the east, they could snatch before anyone could do much about it (and we would likely retreat, because standing on the border against their artillery is suicidal anyway). And that would be enough to test NATO resolve. That's why Poland is arming so urgently.

Afterall, U.S. is not the first overseas metropolis we have seen sinking in the ocean.

Anyway, I'm going back to sauna.

 

[mayfly13]

Another interesting thing, LupusDei.
This war also exposed the different experiences of Eastern Europeans. (my definition of EE is I half of Europe, from Finland to Geece).

First of all:
Imo, Indians and East Asians have a lot more in common with Anglos, than Eastern Europeans will ever have -- we don't have that analytical type of philosophy.
We have a lot more in common with Greek and Jewish mode of thinking, sprinkled with Russian influence (likethe latter or not).

Anyway. Within our block:
It's fascinating to see how different Lithuanians/Poles/Ukrainians etc versus Hungarians versus Albanians versus Serbs versus Greeks view America.

 

[mayfly13]

Everyone's so impatient. We will know in a year or two. Of course, it can be Ukrainians have fooled everyone and certain bunch of mad, angry, genocidal Serbs are right in their assessment Ukraine actually is fighting with an army of 50k or less and don't seriously plan to field any much more if even able to fill in loses with untrained forced conscripts. I don't think it means what they think it means anyway.

On scary thoughts about imperial borders. Yeah, what if... they decide to restore Vithebsk governorate in 19th century borders? They can't, couldn't even before Ukraine, take entirety of Latvia in one go... not because we could defend ourselves, we can't, no matter how good our pros might be or not, the numbers are just lol, and even if our schoolboy platoons could slaughter veteran elite divisions again, they would need those two weeks of basics in anyway... just because of how the Russian army is built and supplied, they just can't make it happen.

But Lettigalia, that roughly bit less than third in the east, they could snatch before anyone could do much about it (and we would likely retreat, because standing on the border against their artillery is suicidal anyway). And that would be enough to test NATO resolve. That's why Poland is arming so urgently.

Afterall, U.S. is not the first overseas metropolis we have seen sinking in the ocean.

Anyway, I'm going back to sauna.

you're right.
But let us both not be partial

UK/US
What disgusts me is that none of the UK/US/German subservient press made much noise when Russia did awful things in Georgia &. But they did a big hooha for a piece of rock --Crimea-- which was Russian-majority anyway, and which always belonged to Russia. Cause geostrategically located.

RUSSIA
The new RussiaToday banner - Russia/Former Soviet States is a sinister foreshadowing of what more carnage is to come.

 

[mayfly13]

ogg, I admire your culture. You gave some of the World's best writers and scientists.


But what I abhorr about your culture, is the cunning shit.
You don't see that in Germans, French, Africans or Eastern Europeans.
You only see it in Anglos, Indians and East Asians.

 

[Kradder]

you're right.
But let us both not be partial

UK/US
What disgusts me is that none of the UK/US/German subservient press made much noise when Russia did awful things in Georgia &. But they did a big hooha for a piece of rock --Crimea-- which was Russian-majority anyway, and which always belonged to Russia. Cause geostrategically located.

RUSSIA
The new RussiaToday banner - Russia/Former Soviet States is a sinister foreshadowing of what more carnage is to come.

Why did russia invade Georgia? Could it be because of the Israeli sponsored Georgian invasion of South ossetia, a part of Russia? American media is too quick to ignore past events and simplify things into good and evil, with anyone America doesnt like as evil.

Another case that springs to mind is Kuwait. It was always part of iraq. It was the British that carved it up in the 20th century and removed Kuwait. So iraq
did have some grounds for taking back what is theirs.

 

[mayfly13]

The British have always been masters of divide and rule. That is how a small number of British could subjugate large numbers. Anytime any opposition arose they would support other groups against them. The British would rule over black tribes like this but then support other black tribes against the boers.

You can call it cunning but it works. The jews have also always used this model, like being the biggest funders of both parties in the USA. Whoever wins, they win.

and it's probably how they managed to dominate their own people.

My biggest shock, after emmigrating was to find out that Brits had so many accents. And that those that back home were considered not posh, were actually down to Earth folks, eager to mingle and get along with other nations.

 

[mayfly13]

well, BUT for Australians and NZers.
Fuckers came from the lowest levels of British/Scottish/Irish societies,
yet after colonising, they started thinking of themselves as more posh than the posh.

 

[LupusDei]

Why did russia invade Georgia? Could it be because of the Israeli sponsored Georgian invasion of South ossetia, a part of Russia?

Huh?

The South Ossetian Autonomous Oblast, established by Soviet authorities in 1922, declared independence from the Georgian Soviet Socialist Republic in 1991. The Georgian government responded by abolishing South Ossetia's autonomy and trying to re-establish its control over the region by force.[10] The escalating crisis led to the 1991–1992 South Ossetia War.[11] Georgians have fought against those controlling South Ossetia on two other occasions: in 2004 and in 2008.[12] The latter conflict led to the Russo-Georgian War of August 2008, during which Ossetian and Russian forces gained full de facto control of the territory of the former South Ossetian Autonomous Oblast. Since the 2008 war, Georgia and a significant part of the international community have regarded South Ossetia as occupied by the Russian military.

At no point it was prior to 2008 occupation it was part of Russia, not during this current conflict. Have we look further back? Well...

The Ossetians are believed to originate from the Alans, a nomadic Iranian tribe.[20] In the 8th century a consolidated Alan kingdom, referred to in sources of the period as Alania, emerged in the northern Caucasus Mountains. Around 1239–1277 Alania fell to the Mongol and later to the Timur's armies, that massacred much of the Alanian population. The survivors among the Alans retreated into the mountains of the central Caucasus and gradually started migration to the south, across the Caucasus Mountains into the Kingdom of Georgia.

The Baltic German explorer Johann Anton Güldenstädt who visited Georgia in 1772. called modern North Ossetia simply Ossetia, while he wrote that Kartli (the areas of modern-day South Ossetia) was populated by Georgians and the mountainous areas were populated by both Georgians and Ossetians.[28] Güldenstädt also wrote that the northernmost border of Kartli is the Major Caucasus Ridge.[29][30][31] By the end of 18th century, the ultimate sites of Ossetian settlement on the territory of modern South Ossetia were in Kudaro (Jejora river estuary), Greater Liakhvi gorge, the gorge of Little Liakhvi, Ksani River gorge, Guda (Tetri Aragvi estuary) and Truso (Terek estuary).

The Georgian Kingdom of Kartli-Kakheti, including the territory of modern South Ossetia, was annexed by the Russian Empire in 1801. Ossetia, the area comprising modern North Ossetia, was among the first areas of the North Caucasus to come under Russian domination, starting in 1774.[33] The capital, Vladikavkaz, was the first Russian military outpost in the region.[34] By 1806, Ossetia was completely under Russian control. Ossetian migration to Georgian areas continued in the 19th and 20th centuries, when Georgia was part of the Russian Empire and Ossetian settlements emerged in Trialeti, Borjomi, Bakuriani and Kakheti as well.

Literally at no time in history South Ossetia was part of Russia when Georgia itself wasn't.

While North Ossetia, north of the Caucasus ridge indeed was incorporated into Russian Federation while South Ossetia remained part of Georgia, both as independent country and later as socialistic republic of Soviet Union. This, however, was used as manipulative mandate for the latest occupation.

 

[LupusDei]

But they did a big hooha for a piece of rock --Crimea-- which was Russian-majority anyway, and which always belonged to Russia.

Huh.

Crimea always was. Needs a full stop right there.

Greek, Tatar, Ottoman, whatever. Russia lost a war to Sardinia there. That's what they decided to reenact now.

 

[LupusDei]

Another interesting thing, LupusDei.
This war also exposed the different experiences of Eastern Europeans. (my definition of EE is I half of Europe, from Finland to Geece).

First of all:
Imo, Indians and East Asians have a lot more in common with Anglos, than Eastern Europeans will ever have -- we don't have that analytical type of philosophy.
We have a lot more in common with Greek and Jewish mode of thinking, sprinkled with Russian influence (likethe latter or not).

Anyway. Within our block:
It's fascinating to see how different Lithuanians/Poles/Ukrainians etc versus Hungarians versus Albanians versus Serbs versus Greeks view America.

I disagree on so much here. First how you lump together pieces of... pretty much different civilizations with just by miss-labeled geography. Even the history has been wastly different across it all...

...even if we go as far as to when Slavs were a branch of Balts abused by Huns while they raided Rome...

And y the way... the geographic center of Europe continent, by the way, is somewhere near Latvian - Lithuanian border roughly south from Riga; with side of the border depends on what mathematical model of the planet is being used.

And lack of analytical type of philosophy in... Greek? You may have there something on their long decline since they have been corrupted by christianity, maybe.

 

[mayfly13]

I disagree on so much here. First how you lump together pieces of... pretty much different civilizations with just by miss-labeled geography. Even the history has been wastly different across it all...

...even if we go as far as to when Slavs were a branch of Balts abused by Huns while they raided Rome...

And y the way... the geographic center of Europe continent, by the way, is somewhere near Latvian - Lithuanian border roughly south from Riga; with side of the border depends on what mathematical model of the planet is being used.

And lack of analytical type of philosophy in... Greek? You may have there something on their long decline since they have been corrupted by christianity, maybe.

they Are very different, you are right.
come to think of it, I was wrong and I guess I should have put it in a different way.

I think that the British way of intuiting the World (which was subsequently transmitted to former colonies) is very different from that of Continental Europe, from Germany to Spain to Eastern Europe.

And this time, I'm not saying it in any derogatory way towards either Brits. nor the rest of Europe.

I'm referring to what they often call analytic versus continental philosophy.
Maybe brits. caught a more logic-pragmatic-left brain approach approach to reality from their travels in Asia, maybe it's about their island status.

For example, I've done this Critical Thinking paper, which was fantastic! it will enable me not only to appraise political forum arguments and construct my own, but also to construct logical sentences and paragraphs.
But what surprised me, is that this paper is often studied under a BA in philosophy. No way it would be put under philosophy in other European countries; it would be under logic or mathematics.

 

[mayfly13]

And y the way... the geographic center of Europe continent, by the way, is somewhere near Latvian - Lithuanian border roughly south from Riga; with side of the border depends on what mathematical model of the planet is being used.

what do you mean?

Huh.

Crimea always was. Needs a full stop right there.

Greek, Tatar, Ottoman, whatever. Russia lost a war to Sardinia there. That's what they decided to reenact now.

I guess my piss-off comes from the fact that cunning America fueled Ukraine's determination to hang on to Crimea.
Not because Americans wanted freedom and democracy for Ukraine and Eastern Europe blah blah blah crap crap,
but for obvious NATO geostrategic reasons.

We're not talking about what's right or just, LD.
we're talking about the fact that, unfortunately Ukraine --just like Finland-- drew the short straw and have a very dangerous and powerful neighbor. You HAVE to be realistic and compromise; you will NEVER stop Russian imperialism if Russia decides to expand. But you can be more willy and do it with minimum losses.

 

[mayfly13]

come back to my post in 3 months time, Lupus.

by then, you'll see that America's plan to weaken Russia so it never does it again was just lala land wishful thinking. With many Ukrainian lives lost

 

[mayfly13]

UKRAINE holds territories stolen from Hungary, Slovakia, Romania, Moldova and Hungary during the Soviet rule. Russia took those chunks and integrated them into Ukraine through russification/ukrainisation, thinking that Ukraine will always be Russian/USSR territory.

You don't see Ukraine lobbying for justice and trying to give those territories back, do you?

And it shouldn't, those territories are now Ukrainian majorities anyway
In saying that, Ukraine has breached those minorities rights, repeatedly. No schools in their language, no radio stations. Just check Hungary's embassy site in Washington, it gives great insights

Yet Ukraine felt oppressed when it came to Crimea, which is majority Russian anyway.

 

[mayfly13]

I just don't believe that lay-Ukrainians were even keen on Crimea, which was mostly Russian anyway.
Ask them and I bet they'd say" "Fuck Crimea. Just give it to Russia so that we can live our lives in peace."

The only ones who are willing to sacrifice Ukrainian lives for it, were their leaders, Lithuaine, Polland and Americans. Easy when it isn't You who's dying.

 

[mayfly13]

Zelensky, with all his faults,--he was elected with a massive vote based on his 'let's bring peace to Ukraine' platform, but pre-war his approval rate fell to 25%--
Did try compromise and peace.

He tried to retract Ukrainian forces from Donbas and to negotiate some truce with Russian separatists, but it fell flat because the Azov battalion and Americans opposed him.

Then he did a Huge mistake: in 2021, he passed a law which claimed that only tatars are native minorities to Crimea and Ukraine, in lieu of his application to UAE to get Crimea back.
to
This not only pissed Russians, but it also alienated Hungary&, because his decree would have impinged on the rights of other minorities.

 

[mayfly13]

It's not just France, Lupus.
Italy wants compromise too.

So do most laypeople outside of countries like Polland, Lithuaine, Finland & (which understandably want the war to continue even if it kills millions of Ukrainains, cause they will be next).
American laypeople? They live in a capitalist autocracy and have no say in this war, but I bet most of them want compromise.

The entire world is turning to poverty and famine due to Dementia Biden's ill-thought sanctions.

 

[mayfly13]

But Ukrainian Elites will never agree on a compromise.

It's about them hanging on to their seats, as they'd look bad:

after losing 25% of Ukraine's most vital territories, massive deaths and levelling of cities,
they'd agree to a truce that could have been reached with fewer casualties 3 months ago?

 

[mayfly13]

I'm not saying that morality isn't on the side of Ukraine. Of course it is.

But shit for brains Zelensky, and disingenuous pos Biden
with goading from the American industrial complex (croney) and Polland/Lithaine/Finland (who understandably would sacrifice Ukrainian lives cause they might be next)
made a horrible situation even more horrid.


i actually wish Trump were president.
He's a low-level crook that Russians own.
but his corruption/duplicity would have led to better outcomes

 

[LupusDei]

I've done this Critical Thinking paper, which was fantastic! it will enable me not only to appraise political forum arguments and construct my own, but also to construct logical sentences and paragraphs.
But what surprised me, is that this paper is often studied under a BA in philosophy. No way it would be put under philosophy in other European countries; it would be under logic or mathematics.

The way you operate your preconceptions is mildly amusing. The God created the numbers, it's all he did. Math is philosophy, geometry used to part of it. Until they tried to square the circle dismissing tools their engineers used as "impure" the same way Einstein failed allowing his philosophy constrain his math. Rene Dehart "I think, therefore I am" was so powerful declaration of independence exactly because it was answer to question, "if all I know or believe is false, what can I rely upon?" And he starts with that, that the sceptic should necessarily exist. And rebuild his entire philosophy, the building of science, based on that. And Kant... by the way, he lived and worked in Konigsberg, now Kaliningrad.

what do you mean?

The landmass of Europe, as it's defined. Ural mountains is the east edge, and the reach in arctic is significant. It's large enough for there to be significant curvature and up north enough the deviation from perfect sphere matter; constructing and projecting to the surface the "center" isn't trivial. It allows both Latvia and Lithuania to claim they own the point.

I guess my piss-off comes from the fact that cunning America fueled Ukraine's determination to hang on to Crimea.
Not because Americans wanted freedom and democracy for Ukraine and Eastern Europe blah blah blah crap crap,
but for obvious NATO geostrategic reasons.

We're not talking about what's right or just, LD.
we're talking about the fact that, unfortunately Ukraine --just like Finland-- drew the short straw and have a very dangerous and powerful neighbor. You HAVE to be realistic and compromise; you will NEVER stop Russian imperialism if Russia decides to expand. But you can be more willy and do it with minimum losses.

Russia is gigantic misunderstanding. It had never truly been, had any independent history. A robber empire. Error of history that need to be corrected, and it will be, even if we have to wait for Russians to die out on their own.

come back to my post in 3 months time, Lupus.

by then, you'll see that America's plan to weaken Russia so it never does it again was just lala land wishful thinking. With many Ukrainian lives lost

While I still think the next three months are the best window for Ukraine to take back territory, it may be resolved in that space only if there was 10x the military assistance we're getting. So, make it one year, and we may talk.

America, well, there a co-victim dragged into the conflict against their will, although they could conceivably extract geopolitical benefits from it, such is much hampered by internal conflict.

UKRAINE holds territories stolen from Hungary, Slovakia, Romania, Moldova and Hungary during the Soviet rule. Russia took those chunks and integrated them into Ukraine through russification/ukrainisation, thinking that Ukraine will always be Russian/USSR territory.

You don't see Ukraine lobbying for justice and trying to give those territories back, do you?

And it shouldn't, those territories are now Ukrainian majorities anyway
In saying that, Ukraine has breached those minorities rights, repeatedly. No schools in their language, no radio stations. Just check Hungary's embassy site in Washington, it gives great insights

Yet Ukraine felt oppressed when it came to Crimea, which is majority Russian anyway.

You contradict yourself just in there already. Russians moved Poland west, by like half, after the WW2. Crimea was given to Ukraine because it made sense, and was Ukraine when it was occupied. Still, it would be long recognized as Russia had Russia be content with it. Now they will lose it.

Zelensky, with all his faults,--he was elected with a massive vote based on his 'let's bring peace to Ukraine' platform, but pre-war his approval rate fell to 25%--
Did try compromise and peace.

He tried to retract Ukrainian forces from Donbas and to negotiate some truce with Russian separatists, but it fell flat...

Indeed, Zelensky lost popularity mostly for not being nationalistic enough. The peace was understood by people as getting the Donbas back.

Italy wants compromise too.

Berlusconi is Russian agent (the way Trump & Orban is) and has outsized influence in media.

The entire world is turning to poverty and famine due to Dementia Biden's ill-thought sanctions.

Huh. This is just absurd. The only reason is Russian actions. Biden has managed this as best as anyone could, even despite his administration's problems with moderating themselves to standstill. Yes, there's always room for improvement. If Biden was allowed to lead where his instincts seem to be...

But Ukrainian Elites will never agree on a compromise.

It's about them hanging on to their seats, as they'd look bad:

after losing 25% of Ukraine's most vital territories, massive deaths and levelling of cities,
they'd agree to a truce that could have been reached with fewer casualties 3 months ago?

In contrary, the elites might compromise, but be labeled traitors. But they would be labeled traitors for fairly losing the war, or even for not winning it fast and deficiency enough, so that may be nearly inevitable anyway.

Ukrainians had always -- always -- elected their own pastors. Think about it.

I'm not saying that morality isn't on the side of Ukraine. Of course it is.

But shit for brains Zelensky, and disingenuous pos Biden
with goading from the American industrial complex (croney) and Polland/Lithaine/Finland (who understandably would sacrifice Ukrainian lives cause they might be next)
made a horrible situation even more horrid.

i actually wish Trump were president.
He's a low-level crook that Russians own.
but his corruption/duplicity would have led to better outcomes

Now you are just trying to insult everyone at once.

 

[LupusDei]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FP2B4vTWYAkxduO?format=jpg&name=900x900