The Official Author's Hangout 2014 Earth Day Contest Support Thread

[MSTarot]

Would you people please quit it with the friggin math?? Si vous parlerez en maths, he parlerai en français. O en español.

You're making my math-retarded head hurt!!

Now see the sucky part is I could read what you wrote and understand it. I could even speak it back to where it would be understandable in French.

But if spoken I go all Gomez Addams.

 

[squirrelzo]

Hi, quick question. If you enter the contest, does your story also show up in whatever category its in, incest, EC, etc. Or can it only be found on the contest page? Thanks

 

[TimothyM]

Hi, quick question. If you enter the contest, does your story also show up in whatever category its in, incest, EC, etc. Or can it only be found on the contest page? Thanks

Yep, it shows up in the pertinent category as well as on the New stories list.

 

[BuckyDuckman]

How do you check the scores? I don't even know how to check my own, much less everyone elses

A low vote story has the potential advantage of the trolls unwittingly camouflaging it. A single low vote has more impact on a low-vote story, thus making it appear to be less of a threat to whomever the malicious voter is trying to help win. Once it's dropped off the radar, the low votes stop coming in, because that energy is being expended upon other stories that are a threat to the low-voter's favorite.

Once the sweeps remove that low vote, it has more impact on a low-vote story for the same reason.

However...

The maximum jump in votes between day-5 of a day-1 story to the end of the contest is 39% in a random sampling from my old tracks. It averages about 12-15%, and only drops a couple of percentage points through most of the submission days until the dead end, when it's impossible to get any data.

Quite a few of those attaining higher percentages of post-honeymoon votes actually placed in the contest, or barely missed it. Part of the reason for those higher increases is probably that they were good stories, which caused people to recommend them.

A day-1 story with 75 votes ( hitting somewhere around the midpoint between average and max ) isn't going to move that much more than the zero-hour story with 60 votes.

4.86 x 60 + 1 = 4.80
4.86 x 75 + 1 = 4.80

4.80 x 61 + 1 = 4.74
4.80 x 76 + 1 = 4.75

4.74 x 62 + 1 = 4.68
4.75 x 77 + 1 = 4.70

( I didn't bother with the fractions on those, so it's possible the last 4.68 could be a 4.67, etc. )

It's not that fraction of votes attained over the duration of the contest that makes the difference, it's the lower vote total in general. Votes obtained over the full length of the contest don't have the potential to move the bar far enough to matter.

RR's math is correct, however, I would advise against believing the attempts of math performed in a world that includes magic and mythical creatures.

Lit contests exist in a Sci-fi/Fantasy universe filled with mysterious trolls and magical sweeps occasionally interrupted with math, rumor, conjecture, finger-pointing and name calling.

Here's my take-away about contests:
1) Contest entries tend to increase readership of one's entire catalog.
2) Scores reported during a contest have ZERO value.

The scores we can see for each other's entries aren't official scores, because those scores aren't constantly updated. The score you see for your story is updated more often, though I don't know if it's done in real time. Still, the result is the same: Scores reported during contests have ZERO value.

And when does the contest end? Great question. No one knows. We have a date when it's supposed to end, but not a time or time zone. So, when are the final votes accepted? No one knows. Nor does anyone know which votes might be swept any better than we know who did the vote in the first place. Result? SCORES REPORTED DURING CONTESTS HAVE ZERO VALUE!!!!

Try surviving a tax audit with numbers that are accurate within, what's the margin? 39%? 12-15%? A couple percentage points? Try submitting your taxes with income earned through December 10th instead of through December 31st. Or, for that matter, try passing a tax audit when the auditor tells you, "Oh, sorry, we decided to include January 1st and 2nd. But don't worry, we did it everyone."

With all that said: to my eyes, the winning stories seem to consistently be well written stories deserving of a win. But questioning the scoring system gets you branded as a sore loser.

 

[lovecraft68]

The final sweep is the key.

No one knows what it looks for, but more importantly when does it stop?

People with 1000k plus votes may only lose a handful of votes and see no real chnage in scores.

But other times a 600 votes story somehow loses 250 votes and jumps from a 4.74 to a 4.86.

Last summer I saw my entry change scores 6 times in the final day each time losing more votes.

I envision someone shaking one of those magic eight balls, going, "Hmmm no" and doing it again until they are happy.

I've been seriously screwed then a year later placed with a story that I truly felt didn't deserve a win. Maybe that was me "here, we'll even this out for you" or all of this is just random.

What I know is after seeing a romance story-and let's face it romance is about the least trolled softest voted category there is- lose over a third of its votes and jump over .15 to come from not even the top ten to take first place I cannot see the sweeps as being legit whether that is deliberate or a badly flawed system we'll never know.

But what I do know is there are ways to help yourself out by choosing when you post your entry and what category you choose.

To win less is more. Less votes less time the better.

Forum posts and general attitude and brown nosing is most likely an intangible as well.

I'm competitive in anything I do and like to win, but do my best and leave it at that. Its not important enough to sit there and pour over statistics and patterns to try to pick the right everything to win.

If it means that much to some people they can have it.

 

[RejectReality]

No, my problem was the way you were posting was degrading to the winners. If you recall, one of them even expressed that.

Dig back through these threads into ancient history and you'll find out that you're not making some stunning revelation. Every reference to the "roller coaster" is an acknowledgement that the score you see ( even your own ) isn't what you'll end the contest with. And it's elaborated on to say exactly that in almost every contest.

This is not something new. It's part of what the contests are, and always have been.

What does the transparency you're calling for accomplish?

Knowing the actual end time for voting wouldn't be that big of a deal. It would most likely result in less pointless trolling that isn't even going to be considered in the final results. Considering the flurry of votes that always come in at the 11th hour, your score is probably getting knocked down for no good reason on many occasions.

That leaves the sweeps. How do you make that process transparent and not provide a treasure map to people who want to manipulate the results?

You can't.

That leaves two choices. Keep the criteria of the sweeps secret, or eliminate them entirely.

The first is the status quo.

The second leaves the determination of the winners up to who has the most time and dedication to toss the appropriate number of 1s and 5s at the right stories, making not only the scores during the contest meaningless, but the scores afterward even more meaningless.

How many contests would you bother to enter if you watched your score plummet every single day on the back of 1s you knew weren't going anywhere?

There are other choices, of course. They've been discussed at length. Laurel doesn't appear to be interested in a panel-judged contest. One reason is probably that it wouldn't change a thing. Those who want to believe the contests are fixed would still believe they're fixed. The target would change from the sweeps to the judges, and that's all.

Any other change you make would be the same.

Eliminating the money would dramatically reduce the gamesmanship, but would most likely reduce the participation to a handful of people on the forum. No matter what the prize offered ( even reducing it to nothing but an acknowledgement of the winner ) a few are still going to toss 1-bombs.

The final solution, of course, is to eliminate the contests completely.

I'll be rather surprised if there are any official contests next year, and hardly surprised if we don't finish this year's schedule.

And when that happens, everybody loses.

 

[Seanathon]

This is only my third contest and it sounds and seems like there are a lot of shenanigans that go on during them. But I still enjoy entering them and think they offer a lot of rewards for writers (not just the huge cash prizes and big blue W), like the challenge to write to a theme, having your name on the contest page as a portal for new readers to find your stories, and a targeted readership. I know my Mature contest entry has received more votes, views and comments in one week than my other Mature story has garnered in four months!

 

[Seanathon]

I submitted one yesterday...

I see Jag's story still isn't on the contest page two days after being submitted. Maybe Laurel decided to take a day off?

Is it true that she's the only one who reads the stories to see if they are accepted or not. I love both reading and reading erotica, but I think I'd get sick of it pretty quick if I had to read 50+ new stories every day, 365 days a year.

 

[lovecraft68]

This is only my third contest and it sounds and seems like there are a lot of shenanigans that go on during them. But I still enjoy entering them and think they offer a lot of rewards for writers (not just the huge cash prizes and big blue W), like the challenge to write to a theme, having your name on the contest page as a portal for new readers to find your stories, and a targeted readership. I know my Mature contest entry has received more votes, views and comments in one week than my other Mature story has garnered in four months!

And what you said is a huge advantage, all that extra attention. I've had a two year old story get 6 comments this week.

Having said that, that's how you can tell who has what motives.

because fact is the person who posts the most about the advantages of the exposure of contests is the one that when he wants to win goes out of their way to garner the least exposure.

Those would be shenanigans I suppose

 

[oggbashan]

Thank you, anonymous, for the latest PC on my ineligible entry:

Huh?

I can't even say that was weird. It made no sense whatsoever.

That was an improvement on an earlier one:

CRAP

WHAT A LOAD OF CRAP!

 

[lovecraft68]

Thank you, anonymous, for the latest PC on my ineligible entry:

Huh?

I can't even say that was weird. It made no sense whatsoever.

That was an improvement on an earlier one:

CRAP

WHAT A LOAD OF CRAP!

At least they said it was an entire load of crap and not just a piece.

That's something, right?

 

[oggbashan]

At least they said it was an entire load of crap and not just a piece.

That's something, right?

Anonymous took the trouble to write a PC. That is a considerable improvement on no reaction at all.

 

[TimothyM]

I envision someone shaking one of those magic eight balls, going, "Hmmm no" and doing it again until they are happy.

But what I do know is there are ways to help yourself out by choosing when you post your entry and what category you choose.

To win less is more. Less votes less time the better.

You know what: before my first story in a contest (VD), I'd have shaken my head over all this and not believed a word.

But after seeing the amount of votes (including some threes and fours too) removed from Personal Cards and the absolutely ridiculous increase in final score for my story which resulted from the end of contest sweeps, I'm not so sure.

On the other hand that story was posted on the first day and in GM and it still ended up in fourth place. Not a win (thank God), I'll grant you that, but still a much higher placing than might be expected according to your theory.

Altogether I honestly felt that the sweeps manipulated the scores of the best placing VD stories way past the removal of obvious trolling. To me threes and fours are NOT illegitimate votes. And I'd rather have more votes and a lower score, as long as the average stays above 4 (and preferably 4.5 of course )

Though I guess if 3* and 4* come from the same sources as 1 bombs on other stories and are used to disguise trolling by giving intermediate votes to midrange stories, that could explain the removal. But having the winning stories end up with scores above 4.85 still seems strange to me. For that more than four out of five votes have to be 5*. Is that really plausible ??

So in this contest, apart from staying with the strategy of posting early and doing GM again, I left a note for Laurel asking not to sweep any votes above 2*. Luckily, I also managed to end my story so abruptly that it annoyed most readers, so the score is staying around 4. Ensuring that it should be safe from any sort of manipulation to sweep it into any sort of absurd result or danger of a top three finish.

 

[LadyVer]

Just got a comment titled

"So cute and sweet."

I am deeply ashamed of myself now.

I liked the story. I wouldn't describe it as cute and sweet, but maybe compared to your usual dark themes, I guess that's how some readers would see it.

 

[Swilly]

I liked the story. I wouldn't describe it as cute and sweet, but maybe compared to your usual dark themes, I guess that's how some readers would see it.

What about that rumor that Lifetime wants to do a movie of it?

 

[LadyVer]

What about that rumor that Lifetime wants to do a movie of it?

Lifetime knows a good story.

 

[MSTarot]

What about that rumor that Lifetime wants to do a movie of it?

Who would we cast for what part?

 

[lovecraft68]

Who would we cast for what part?

Hmm we'd have to find some 18 year old guy to play a convincing virgin

Actually the character of "Sam" was based on Sam from who's the boss(except older of course) but she was that cute little tomboy in that show.

And of course underneath she was hot as Alyssa Milano really is.

 

[PennLady]

Who would we cast for what part?

I haven't read the story (sorry), but isn't it required to hire John Corbett? The guy from Northern Exposure? I thought he did a lot of those movies.

 

[PennLady]

Hmm we'd have to find some 18 year old guy to play a convincing virgin

Michael Cera.

 

[BuckyDuckman]

I'm thinking LC got a post in while you were writing, so I'm going to assume most of these comments were directed at me.

No, my problem was the way you were posting was degrading to the winners. If you recall, one of them even expressed that.

Lots of people painted me into that corner. I went out of my way to praise the winners. (If you mean whom I think you mean, trust me: we've long since kissed and made up, I believe she understands I NEVER meant any disrespect to her or her story regardless of how others tried to mis-characterize my comments). And, as I ended my last post, ". . . questioning the scoring system gets you branded as a sore loser." Congratulations on fulfilling my prophecy and please note that your continued attempts to brand me as one get tiresome.

What does the transparency you're calling for accomplish?

I wasn't calling for any transparency in my last post. It is what it is. But instead of trying to apply logic to a magical world, I pointed out the obvious in very simple terms: Scores reported during a contest have ZERO value. I'm not real sure why that makes you uncomfortable. You point out how true the statement is and still want to take me task for saying it? I don't get that, RR.

In other threads, I've offered suggestions. Don't display points for contest entrants during contests seems the most logical one to me. It would eliminate the conjecturing about scores during the contest. But suggestions made around here are consistently met with "It's all been suggested before." (I know I've seen all of your suggestions and reasoning before.)

Your attempts of applying logic to a magical world full of trolls and sweeps performed in secret, at random, with unknowable criteria doesn't change the simple truth: Scores reported during a contest have ZERO value.

However, here is what your defensiveness DOES do:

• Confuse new people. Probably as much as that wonderful jokester does with his fake contests.
• Your scary bedtime stories about the damage performed by trolls creates panic, disillusionment and surely suppresses more entrants. No one knows who made a vote, so there's no way for anyone to validate the damage except pointing to trolls! We could just as easily say "Rabid fans who over vote" with the same amount of knowable honesty.
• Your NSA-esque defense of sweeps as "Shut up, we're doing this for your own good!" adds to the disillusion and suppression of new entrants. The truth is, no one, including you, knows any details about the sweeps. They happen, at random, in an effort to mediate the gamesmanship of the contests, whether it's revenge voting that votes down a story or someone stuffing the ballot box with up votes. At least, that's what we're supposed to believe. Clearly some do believe it and some don't.
• Trying to illustrate mathematical principles with slippery numbers that can change at any time is an exercise in futility. However, it DOES give people a false sense of expectations and refutes what you've already admitted: Scores reported during a contest have ZERO value.

The final solution, of course, is to eliminate the contests completely.

I'll be rather surprised if there are any official contests next year, and hardly surprised if we don't finish this year's schedule.

And when that happens, everybody loses.

And, if that happens, you can cry "VICTORY!" with your false hope, fear-mongering and attempts at explaining the unknowable.

I noticed you were careful to say "official" contests, because I know of at least two unofficial contests where people are having lots of fun: FAWCer and the soon-to-be unleashed "Tag Team" competition. Apparently, having stories earn a W or money isn't as important as you might think. I believe even most of those participating in the soon-to-be-ended "Survivor Contest" aren't doing it for the money, instead, they're doing it for the sheer joy of being challenged.

 

[lovecraft68]

Oh, I have no doubt the contests are all but done.

It took several pm's just to get this one started.

And it has nothing to do with anything except the total apathy this site is now run with.

I was just telling someone that not all that long ago the upcoming contest would be advertised on the homepage in advance "Earth Day contest is coming" now the link isn't even active on the front page even when the first stories are up.

And like the monthlies there will be no announcement or thread or any notice. One day Pennlady will start a thread and the contest will just never happen.

Survivor is ending as well this year. So at this point the sites "job" is uploading new stories.

Too bad the site does well but could do so much better.

 

[lovecraft68]

The finger pointing at others to point away from themselves now begins.

From what I have seen the people who have their stories suddenly inflated to come out of nowhere to win are generally not referred to as cheaters. The suspicion is directed-and rightly-to the mysterious sweep that seems to reward certain categories as the flavor of the month revolves.

No human had a stretch of wins, then gay male, Romance seems in vogue these days.

The most blatantly contestable win was two years ago in Winter when a romance story lost close to three hundred of their 600 or so votes to jump from the mid 4.7's to the high 4.8's. A third swept from the softest voted lowest trolled category on the site.

that's the thing hat sends people frothing and bitching.

That and stories doing well throughout then suddenly tanking at the final sweep to make it look as if they cheated or were the victims of cheer leading voting

But of course we all know it must be scouries fault. That's the story we get.

 

[RejectReality]

All I've ever talked about is the reality of the contests.

In case you missed it, those numbers I posted were nothing more than a demonstration that LC's supposition about late entries is hogwash. They have nothing whatsoever to do with the numbers during the contest having any "meaning".

They don't. They never have. And, it's never been a secret. Would you like me to pull up a thread years old and show you that? Pick a contest. Any year. Any theme.

Actually, here's one from 2007: http://forum.literotica.com/showpost.php?p=21102052&postcount=667

Until that final sweep runs, you don't really have any idea what your final score will end up being.

Or this one: http://forum.literotica.com/showpost.php?p=21104325&postcount=670

No vote is really ours until the end of the contest. Don't even look at the numbers.

Nobody has ever remotely argued with the concept you seem to feel needs to be stated and restated in giant bold letters.

As far as the sweeps go, there's only two things you can really believe.

A) They're applied equally and fairly ( even if flawed )

B) They're rigged by the site to determine the winner.

If it's A, then I fail to see what all the shouting is about.

If it's B, then I fail to see why you're bothering to talk about it. This isn't some corporation where you can scream and point fingers, hoping the board of directors will push out the CEO and bring in someone new. It's essentially a mom&pop operation that's been under the same ownership since day one.

If you believe that management is corrupt, nothing is going to change. They have the absolute power to do as they wish, and there's nobody who can compel them to do otherwise.

Sound and fury.

I simply don't see what you're attempting to accomplish. The one thing I do know you accomplished was shitting all over the winners of a contest at the moment when they should have been celebrating.

 

[HeyAll]

Laurel,

Can you please swing by and confirm that these contests will continue in the future?

We don't want them to end!