Election night prediction thread

[ll74]

My prediction: "Major metro areas" will not report their numbers until they find out how far behind they are to suburban and rural areas. In every state.

So you don't understand how votes are reported.

I predict that you will be angry because you are an idiot.

 

[wallstreetguy]

So you don't understand how votes are reported.

I predict that you will be angry because you are an idiot.

I worked for a Congressman. A Dem. Very honest and hardworking. Loved working for him, so I know how politics works.
I will ignore the rest of your post.

 

[ll74]

I worked for a Congressman. A Dem. Very honest and hardworking. Loved working for him, so I know how politics works.
I will ignore the rest of your post.

Where did I mention politics?

You seem to ignore many things.

 

[Wrong Element]

I've actually paid a lot less attention to these races than usual.

House: Democrats ran ahead of district norms in all the special elections that have been held since the Dobbs decision, something that a lot of smart people have somehow forgotten. I doubt this will be enough to save the House, as reaction against the incumbent president is always a factor and gerrymandering is an additional factor. But all these "blowout!" takes of recent days seem like a Karl Rove-like attempt to manufacture a narrative and demoralize the opposition that doesn't seem to be justified by nonpartisan polls.

GOP +9

Governor: I'll save time and say that I think all the races listed in the OP will be won by the incumbent party.

Senate: I'm going to call it for the Democrats in every race but Ohio, because I always like our chances to be incredibly dumb (this race is genuinely close though, as I wrote about in a different thread). And I have trouble believing that in the privacy of the voting booth, millions of people are actually going to vote for a morally bankrupt and barely intelligible clown like Walker.

Possible surprise: The biggest surprise will by definition be something I'm not talking about, but I think Farmer Chuck could come very close to getting beat in Iowa; the Dems' decision to put nothing into a race against an 89-year-old man is going to be second-guessed on Wednesday.

Factor that's real that no one ever talks about: The Republicans will not do nearly as well this year as they would have done if Trump had just conceded the 2020 election once the result became clear (2 years ago today) and gone into retirement like every other president, instead of hogging the spotlight incessantly. He's highly unpopular and ran behind downballot candidates in most places in 2020. But no one on the GOP side ever points this out, not even self-styled tough guys like DeSantis.

 

[schism666]

I would like to know the specific names and when/where of any GOP candidate who actually said that "5th graders should be forced to have babies" OR "we should overturn election results we don't like."

NOT interpretations, opinions, metaphores, or anything else, put up the ACTUAL QUOTES.

Or STFU forever.

it's not our fault your critical thinking skills are impotent.

 

[LupusDei]

A possible source of uncertainty could be youth voters. That offer small chance for Dems to pull a miracle and outperform the pools significantly, but I wouldn't count on it. I'm afraid even that wouldn't stop the backsliding of actual democracy, so this could be last more or less free election in the US for a decade or five anyway.

For the giggles: house, R pick up seats but ends to be as close to 50/50 as possible, in Senate dems pick up a seat or two. No specifics as I really haven't paid attention to details even despite all the lots of crazies that might have been fun to watch at happier times.

(The only issue that bothers me short term is military assistance to Ukraine, and schism on that doesn't really run along party lines, yet. However, pointed propaganda and political games can make it partisan issue, if R will decide to deny Biden a victory, against their own best interests (but that's commonplace). And really, the neo-feudalists would love to rescue Russia, but I doubt there's a chance anyway.)

 

[phrodeau]

I predict at least two armed attacks on voters and poll workers at a polling site.

 

[KeithD]

I have only one race to vote for. The congressional district is gerrymandered Republican and the Republican incumbent, Bob Good, is one of the crazy MTG coconspirators in Congress. I will get out and vote against him regardless.

 

[Fuckette]

Beto

 

[Rockymtnman]

No idea. But I know politics in this country will remain fubar. I’m thinking New Zealand is looking like a wonderful place.

 

[KeithD]

I’m thinking New Zealand is looking like a wonderful place.

I've said as much to three people today alone.

 

[HisArpy]

Yeah, I got nothing because I lied, but I'm going to attack you personally for pointing that out anyway.

We already know that's your MO.

 

[HisArpy]

NO. Saddened, but not shocked. Saddened because you would have a President who couldn't do anything and the US would be in limbo for the next two years.

If I was a US voter I would be torn between two sets of bad. Which is worst? I think the election deniers are - just, but it would be a close call that might be decided by the persons standing where I vote.

Has it occurred to you (and everyone else) that when the voters choose who they want to represent them, and when that creates a sea change in government direction, that it's because the voters aren't happy with the way things are currently going?

And that's not a bad thing. What's bad is when certain factions call the voters "cockroaches" and "terrorists" in order to intimidate them so that the government that's in power, stays in power.

 

[oggbashan]

Has it occurred to you (and everyone else) that when the voters choose who they want to represent them, and when that creates a sea change in government direction, that it's because the voters aren't happy with the way things are currently going?

And that's not a bad thing. What's bad is when certain factions call the voters "cockroaches" and "terrorists" in order to intimidate them so that the government that's in power, stays in power.

That is the sad thing about current US politics on both sides..

The others are demonised to a ridiculous extent. The idea that a politician from the other side could have a good idea, or that one side's proposal is worth backing seems impossible because of the hatred that exists.

One side or the other is determined to wreck whatever is proposed even if it is sensible. That is very sad.

 

[schism666]

We already know that's your MO.

i used one of your canned responses. glad you also think they are ridiculous.

 

[HisArpy]

That is the sad thing about current US politics on both sides..

The others are demonised to a ridiculous extent. The idea that a politician from the other side could have a good idea, or that one side's proposal is worth backing seems impossible because of the hatred that exists.

One side or the other is determined to wreck whatever is proposed even if it is sensible. That is very sad.

This isn't true.

Take Joe Manchin for example. West Virginia continually reelects him even though he's a Democrat is a majority Republican State. If US politics were as you say they are, that couldn't happen.

However, what Manchin did recently by going along with Brandon's "Inflation Reduction Act" burned Manchin's political fortunes to the ground BECAUSE he didn't listen to his constituents AND he placed his faith in the Democrat's promises to reciprocate in the future on one of Manchin's signature bills. Which Manchin then got screwed by the Democrats for.

Notice that Manchin still isn't being demonized by the general electorate for his political party affiliation. What he did was stupid, and he's being vilified for it because he should have known better, but what you believe is how we do politics here isn't what actually happens.

The fact that you do believe it, is because of the liberal media foisting that particular vision of US politics off upon you.

 

[HisArpy]

i used one of your canned responses. glad you also think they are ridiculous.

I'll have you know that all of my responses are fresh picked and prepared, and not canned, because I don't like SPAM.

Unlike some...

 

[ll74]

However, what Manchin did recently by going along with Brandon's "Inflation Reduction Act" burned Manchin's political fortunes to the ground BECAUSE he didn't listen to his constituents

How exactly did you arrive at this conclusion outside of your own opinion?

 

[oggbashan]

People are elected to make decisions on behalf of their constituents, using their own judgment, not opinion polls or the shouts of activists.

They should make decisions that are good for the whole country, not just their own constituency. It is a shame that so many are addicted to 'pork-barrel' politics - it has to benefit my people only.

 

[HisArpy]

People are elected to make decisions on behalf of their constituents, using their own judgment, not opinion polls or the shouts of activists.

They should make decisions that are good for the whole country, not just their own constituency. It is a shame that so many are addicted to 'pork-barrel' politics - it has to benefit my people only.

I agree with this only to a point. Local politicians are responsible to their electorate and not to the general public at large. However, absent that I agree with your position.

Unfortunately, politicians are politicians because they're narcissistic assholes who are only in it to enrich themselves and they can't make it work out in the real world. And of course anyone who's benevolent enough to actually listen to their constituents and propose bills and ideas for what those voters want, is too soft to withstand the rough and tumble of politics and wouldn't ever be elected in the first place.

So we're left to deal with narcissistic assholes and the fallout therefrom.

 

[phrodeau]

I'll have you know that all of my responses are fresh picked and prepared, and not canned, because I don't like SPAM.

Unlike some...

GOFUCKYOURSELF

GOFUCKYOURSELF

GOFUCKYOURSELF

GOFUCKYOURSELF

GOFUCKYOURSELF

GOFUCKYOURSELF

GOFUCKYOURSELF

GOFUCKYOURSELF

GOFUCKYOURSELF

That multiquote feature works pretty well, I’d say.

 

[HisArpy]

That multiquote feature works pretty well, I’d say.

GO
FUCK
YOURSELF


That fresh enough for you, SPAMmeister?

 

[schism666]

That multiquote feature works pretty well, I’d say.

derp spam is the worst spam.

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

Feeling really good about my NV Senate pick. Jon Ralston has been covering Nevada politics for decades.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1590080517927448576

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

Nevada continues to look good for the GOP Senate and Governor. So good that the Democratic governor has just shut down state offices because of…wait for it…rain! Florida is looking good too - almost in the bag for DeSantis and Rubio.