Are Senate Democrats Headed For Disaster In November?

[Rightguide]

Democrats are heading for disaster in the Senate​

JOHN SEXTON Apr 11, 2022 1:00 PM ET

As I pointed out last week, there are a range of estimates out there about how House Democrats will perform in the midterms. The low side expectation right now is that Republicans will pick up 15 seats but the high side estimate is over 40. Either way, Democrats lose control of the House for the rest of Biden’s term.

Today, Matt Yglesias’ Substack site, Slow Boring, has a piece arguing that things are looking just as bad for Democrats in the Senate. Author Simon Bazelon starts by looking at the generic ballot average at Five Thirty Eight. By setting aside undecided voters, he finds Democrats are actually polling slightly above their historic average during the midterms right now. But there’s a catch.

For comparison purposes, when Cook Political Report published its analysis of House races, they suggested the generic ballot had shifted 7 points toward the GOP since 2020. The Slow Boring analysis puts the shift at 9 points. The result of this is that Senate Democrats who won in states Biden won by less than 9 points are probably in trouble. Specifically, Sen. Mark Kelly in Arizona, Sen. Raphael Warnock in Georgia, Sen. Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire and Sen. Catherine Cortez-Masto in Nevada. (Rue Teixeira wrote and analysis of Cortez-Masto’s chances last week which I wrote about here.)

So Democrats are likely to lose 3-4 Senate seats this year and that’s just the start of their troubles. Bazelon goes on to point out that 2024 is looking ever worse for Democrats. There are six Senate seats up for reelection in 2024 in states where Biden either lost the state or won narrowly. If Democrats perform close to their historical average in that election they have a good chance of losing those six plus another two more that would be on the bubble. Again, that’s if they perform close to their average. But obviously if Democratic enthusiasm remains low then the historical average won’t save them. All of this culminates in a chart which combines the potential outcome of the next two elections into a range of probabilities:

Remember, we started this by saying Democrats would probably wind up with about 47% of the vote in the midterms, so if you start with that in the left column and move across the best case scenario for Democrats is that they’ll have (rounding up) 41 senators after the 2024 election. And the worst case is (rounding up) 39 senators. Obviously things change dramatically once you have 60 Republicans in the Senate and that’s a real possibility.

The rest here:

https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2022/04/11/democrats-are-heading-for-disaster-in-the-senate-n461563

 

[ll74]

I brought this up last year and was told that only the house was up for a GOP win.

Redistricting has actually led to less house seats. We have an entire summer of politicking, but expect both chambers to flip.

 

[Sean Renaud]

Midterms ALWAYS suck that's just the way of it. The American people by and large are deeply, deeply stupid. Every poll shows even among Republicans that Biden's agenda is something they want, same as it was under Obama. Yet they still have this throwout the baby with the bathwater attitude. Honestly I have minimal pity for a lot of them on a lot of issues.

The only way Biden loses control for the rest of his term is if he steps down which is likely and its not impossible (if a bit unlikely if we trust the polls for some reason on that front) that Kamala could carry it. I would send Gavin personally, he actually has some fight in him.

After that at least at the presidential level the Dems have done a terrible job my entire adult life of not being particularly strategic. Like Obama should have just let Hillary have it, she would have won by a similar margin to Obama, almost definitely gotten her 8 and even if it wasn't 2016 if Obama stuck around he would have gotten it.

We also don't groom for shit. These are all weaknesses of people who don't treat politics like a game.

 

[pecksniff]

Midterms ALWAYS suck that's just the way of it. The American people by and large are deeply, deeply stupid.

But consider that those who bother to vote in midterms are more politically engaged and sophisticated than everybody else.

 

[Sean Renaud]

More engaged yes, I don't know if I've seen much evidence they are more sophisicated however. I think for starters between state and federal level there are so many things that nobody with a job and anything resembling a social life keeps up with much.

Speaking as a Californian I quite often see that MAYBE letting the public have as much power as we have isn't brilliant. You guys want a train? Yes. Do you want a 5 cent tax on candy to pay for it? Nope. Which means we budget for it but don't pay for it amongst other problems.

 

[Rightguide]

Midterms ALWAYS suck that's just the way of it. The American people by and large are deeply, deeply stupid. Every poll shows even among Republicans that Biden's agenda is something they want, same as it was under Obama. Yet they still have this throwout the baby with the bathwater attitude. Honestly I have minimal pity for a lot of them on a lot of issues.

That was quite the opening line of shit. Show me "every poll" showing Republicans want the Biden agenda. Reading your posts is like watching roadkill roasting over a barrel fire.

 

[Sean Renaud]

I'm not diggin up every fucking poll since 2008. Sorry, that would eat up WAY too much time. Especially when you aren't even attempting to defend any of your points, at least not in a way that accepts the facts.

 

[Rightguide]

I'm not diggin up every fucking poll since 2008. Sorry, that would eat up WAY too much time. Especially when you aren't even attempting to defend any of your points, at least not in a way that accepts the facts.

That's because you know they don't exist.

 

[Sean Renaud]

I know they exist, I also know when your goal is just to keep me busy.

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

Too early to assess the Senate races. Encouraging signs for sure, but it’s a small number of races. After the primaries the picture will become much more clear.

 

[Chernosoth]

The USA is probably less screwed than Europe, but this year's disaster is more than just one party losing seats on the gravy train. The nation is losing the gravy train.

 

[Sean Renaud]

How can we be less screwed than Europe? I mean isn't British Trump gonna be gone soonish?

 

[Chernosoth]

Europe uses less energy per capita, but it's more dependent on the fuel exports of one nation it has permanently pissed off.

 

[Champakian]

I read just yesterday that flipping the Senate would be a tough task.
I really don't know, but I have heard it said that
a week is an eternity in politics.
__________________________________________
Democrat born. Democrat bred. Libertarian led (by Democrats).

 

[Champakian]

Too early to assess the Senate races. Encouraging signs for sure, but it’s a small number of races. After the primaries the picture will become much more clear.

And you can bet the DNC and it's wealthiest (which I always find humorous,
that the richest in our nation support the Democrats who claim the Republicans are the party of the rich)
and going to pour tons of money into those races that are close ensuring that any other candidate
will be massively outspent, and the MSM is going to make its contributions in kind,
promoting dirty tricks from the (D) and truth and (R)s truth as
dirty deeds done dirt cheap...

 

[SS100]

I personally think the major issue is the way the political system is set up. You guys don't have mandatory voting. And the democrat politcians suck and can't rely on grass roots/left wing support.
Which feeds back to them seeking other places of support i.e. corporations and etc
Which makes them suck and people don't vote for them unless they have to.
the democrats are a big, big tent party.

 

[Champakian]

Yeah, a voter voting at the point of a gun doesn't scream "informed voter" to me...

The rest of your post is divorced from reality. Where do you live?

 

[SS100]

Yeah, a voter voting at the point of a gun doesn't scream "informed voter" to me...

The rest of your post is divorced from reality. Where do you live?

Australia. Voting is mandatory here.

Last I remember it went like this IF you don't vote.

1. First election you don't vote you get a warning.

2. Second election you don't vote you get a $300 fine

3. Third election you don't vote you got to jail for three months.

 

[YDB95]

I believe it's $20 for not voting. Not to mention we have ranked-choice voting, so you can vote for a third party without wasting your vote or spoiling the election.

 

[Champakian]

Voting is a privilege and not a right.
Free speech is a right and we don't force people to speak.
We have a right to bear arms and we don't go all Switzerland and force ownership.

I don't see how a self-respecting culture can look itself in a mirror while forcing its citizens to vote.
The contented (even if it's just because they're completely tuned out) should not be compelled to vote.
They might make their choices out of spite. A free people who love Liberty should be appalled at imprisonment...

I am happy that those disinclined to vote, don't.
They just don't care enough to pay attention.
They shouldn't have to pay a fine for that.

Life's too fawkin' short...

 

[LittleDixie]

Let's paint the pile of shit red again, maybe it won't stink anymore.

SPOILER ALERT: it's still a pile of shit.

 

[MLG1016]

Let's paint the pile of shit red again, maybe it won't stink anymore.

SPOILER ALERT: it's still a pile of shit.

And, Unfortunately it will still stink

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

Some very encouraging polling in Nevada today. The GOP is pulling ahead in both the Senate and Governor races.

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

Some more encouraging news. As the election approaches, a growing number of Democratic Senators are feeling the heat on immigration. Centrist Dem Sens. Joe Manchin of West Virginia; Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona; and Jon Tester of Montana who are demanding Brandon reinstate Title 42 have now been joined by vulnerable Dem Sens. Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire; Raphael Warnock of Georgia; Mark Kelly of Arizona; and Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada.

 

[HisArpy]

Some more encouraging news. As the election approaches, a growing number of Democratic Senators are feeling the heat on immigration. Centrist Dem Sens. Joe Manchin of West Virginia; Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona; and Jon Tester of Montana who are demanding Brandon reinstate Title 42 have now been joined by vulnerable Dem Sens. Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire; Raphael Warnock of Georgia; Mark Kelly of Arizona; and Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada.

This too:

https://cis.org/Arthur/WSJ-Describes-White-House-Disarray-Immigration

All of the problems Brandon is facing were self induced.