IrezumiKiss
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urk!
Election night prediction thread
- Thread starter BabyBoomer50s
- Start date
urk!
BabyBoomer50s
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Congrats to our members from Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina. Those were among the super close Senate races that have now been called. GA, PA, and NV will take a while to shake out.
IrezumiKiss
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IrezumiKiss
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Rockymtnman
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ummm. Vegas \ Clark county determines the state. Washoe merely brings it closer or further away.
BabyBoomer50s
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Had not been called at the time of posting. Looks like a win for DemsWhat's laughable is the OP's failure to include the highly competitive Wisconsin races in their poll.
BabyBooBoo fails again.
*nods*
(And how about that Inflation Reduction Act.!!!)
ll74
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Vance took OH..
Shit candidate will be our shitty Senator....fantastic.
I was wrong about the House. Though I still think it will move red. Ohio definitely fell in line that direction.
From some of the exit polls, specifically some from Michigan, Dobbs was a much bigger issue than anticipated.
And as fun as it was to watch Boebert possibly being ousted, I see that reversing in the final counts.
Shit candidate will be our shitty Senator....fantastic.
I think I'm still solid for the Senate. I still think it's going to end in the GA runoff, but still time.
I was wrong about the House. Though I still think it will move red. Ohio definitely fell in line that direction.
From some of the exit polls, specifically some from Michigan, Dobbs was a much bigger issue than anticipated.
And as fun as it was to watch Boebert possibly being ousted, I see that reversing in the final counts.
ll74
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His prediction, based on exit polling, was correct.
colddiesel
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Joe Biden has probably done the GOP a favour. He thrashed Trump by 10 million votes in 2020 and in 2022 the Trump endorsed candidates have done very poorly, largely running as Biden critics. Trump may still run in 2024 to try avoiding criminal liabilities, but if he does not, fearing humiliation, the GOP will have a bunch of candidates with much much less baggage.
schism666
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the gop voters have proven over and over again that they don't care about their candidate's baggage.
HisArpy
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Very disappointed in Georgia. Basically, the 80k votes for the independent candidate who had no possible hope of winning, almost assures that Warnock will be reelected after a run off.
More cost to the taxpayers for that run off and the end result may very well be more of the same economic doldrums as the past 2 years. Very disappointing.
More cost to the taxpayers for that run off and the end result may very well be more of the same economic doldrums as the past 2 years. Very disappointing.
Wrong Element
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What's laughable is the OP's failure to include the highly competitive Wisconsin races in their poll.
BabyBooBoo fails again.
*nods*
(And how about that Inflation Reduction Act.!!!)
I took note of that, but if you're running a contest like this, you're usually going to try to take races where lots of people will pick both sides. The polls all showed a small but persistent lead for Johnson, which is about what happened in the end. Not sure if a different candidate could have won that race -- I remain stunned that a relatively normal place like Wisconsin could choose a complete idiot and Putin stooge like Johnson even once -- but Barnes had been elected statewide before so that's not bad preparation.
phrodeau
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They did it for the clicks.
Wrong Element
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It's been pointed out that the difference between the vote of a "normal" Republican like Brian Kemp and an unqualified brain-addled liar like Herschel Walker is really shockingly small.
The question was asked above whether Arizona is a blue state. I don't think that's true, or at least it's premature to say it's true, but it's definitely true that Democrats there make efforts to nominate the kind of candidates that stand a chance of getting to 51 percent statewide, while Republicans just let their freak flag fly. Turns out that swing voters had some second thoughts about turning the governorship, an executive position, over to a career teleprompter-reader who thinks attacking an old man with a hammer is hilarious.
Wrong Element
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The NY Times guy predicted it. I think the suburban women pissed off about abortion probably did him in. I'm amused thinking about all the MAGAs in Warren County who are going to have a Dem representative now.
Ohio is as hopeless as ever politically and may actually be getting worse, but losing another seat in the House threw a monkey wrench into their gerrymander. The Democrats literally couldn't win a close House race in the 2010s. Last night they won two, and that's not counting the Marcy Kaptur race which was forecast to be close but wasn't.
Wrong Element
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The Democrats might have actually been able to keep the House if they still had partisan gerrymandering in California, and if the one they tried in New York had been allowed by the courts. (Republican-run states don't have these qualms. Ohio's new Supreme Court is almost certainly going to allow a more aggressive gerrymander even though voters said thy wanted an end to it.)
Most of the polling errors this year all went the same way, which is actually pretty normal. What's not as normal is punditry essentially spending the week prior to the vote doing their post mortem on the vote. They committed hard to their "Dem disaster" narrative and look like morons today. Maybe try getting out and talking to some pissed-off young women instead of hanging out in the same fucking Pennsylvania diner.
Biden's poll numbers are what they are, but politics is a zero-sum game, and people are always going to assess the alternative before making a change. That's something Republicans ought to keep in mind, but if they keep deluding themselves that they're only losing because of fraud, they will keep making the same mistake.
Most of the polling errors this year all went the same way, which is actually pretty normal. What's not as normal is punditry essentially spending the week prior to the vote doing their post mortem on the vote. They committed hard to their "Dem disaster" narrative and look like morons today. Maybe try getting out and talking to some pissed-off young women instead of hanging out in the same fucking Pennsylvania diner.
Biden's poll numbers are what they are, but politics is a zero-sum game, and people are always going to assess the alternative before making a change. That's something Republicans ought to keep in mind, but if they keep deluding themselves that they're only losing because of fraud, they will keep making the same mistake.
phrodeau
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I was wrong. Maybe next time.
The J-6 violence occurred AFTER things didn't go the petulant right's way. I believe the mouth breathers will be appeased by the "red wave" that returned control of the House to The Inquisition.
*nods*
oggbashan
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He's not. He is reported to be ranting and screaming and saying that the candidates he supported that lost were 'bad' candidates.
I wasn't referring to the giant orange toddler, but to the "petulant right" in general.
*nods*
Wrong Element
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For the last few years Republicans, not just on Lit, have pointed to the large and threatening Covid protests in Lansing as proof that Gretchen Whitmer was both very radical and very unpopular. To which KAH, not known as a political poster for the most part, would answer with, "No, actually most people here really like her."
Another case where the narrative was not a good match with reality.
Another case where the narrative was not a good match with reality.
AsmodeusPrime
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Yes how dare we not want to bend over backwards to lick communist ass..... looks like you are just going to have to endure some diversity of political opinion and deal with the existence of people who don't hate civil liberties as much as you and the comrades.
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