War starts on command, but doesn't end when you please

[ffish1]

Yet, they're still angry about the attitude, about the misery and missing gear, but as far we can tell the majority haven't questioned the war as such till now. They're pro war.

In a sense I understand them,
1. NATO/America and Ukraine are anything BUT Russia's friends
2. combined with Putin's propaganda

They're still fighting by choice, even if passive and reluctant. It's not at all that hard, even now, to evade conscription in Russia. Many did. Over 400k fled the country. Probably even more have moved internally. There's anecdotes about futility of recruiters going into taiga (Siberian forests) after foresters camping out there for weeks, presumably without knowledge about the mobilization. They don't comment had the recruiters been seen ever again.

There's no visible protest movement in Russia, but dozens of recruiting offices have been firebombed, railroad tracks have been damaged. And it's impossible to distinguish between absurd incompetence and deliberate malicious compliance.

Of course there isn't. They'd be thrown in prison. Still, I've seen people subtly expressing dissent, which makes them heroes.

I only saw loud protests in Dagestan.
No wonder; occupied minority

My grandfather managed to desert from both. Proud he never fired in combat. But he wasn't a pacifist, just afraid to hit his brothers. Two of whom died on the same battlefield in opposite sides. But been there chance to fight for own country -- against either -- he would.

And so would I. Actually, I rather feel bad for finding excuses for not going to fight for Ukraine...

I don't know much about Ww2, let alone your guts' History, I'm afraid.
So who tried to conscript your grandfather?

 

[Chobham]

An analysis of Russian Air Power in the Ukraine War.

46 min. long and very detailed.

 

[jaF0]

So, uh, Moldova, huh?

 

[jaF0]

So, uh, Poland, huh?

 

[jaF0]

Question as to intentional RU strike, accidental RU off course flop, or UK trying to hit an RU object.

 

[Dribble]

Oops....Poland attacked. Time for NATO to step in. Give Putin a second front to fight

 

[LupusDei]

So, uh, Poland, huh?

Oops....Poland attacked. Time for NATO to step in. Give Putin a second front to fight

The place that was hit in Poland is roughly 3/4 south along a roughly 160 mile north-south line between Brest in Belarus and Lviv in Ukraine, some 3 miles from Poland-Ukraine border in the deeper part of a broad eastward bulge of the border. It is said the connection of Ukrainian electric power grid to Poland/EU runs nearby. Up until Ukrainian power grid become Russian priority target recently, Ukraine exported electricity through it. Now, with roughly 40% Ukrainian generation capacity destroyed or damaged during the past month, they are importing.

As far I can tell, there's two, likely connected incidents: some as of yet unidentified rocket debris fell with little effect, and what's been quite clearly identified as an s300 air defense system rocket landed and exploded on the ground killing two people and leaving quite a crater (not a surprise, s300 fires a huge rocket with a warhead said to be ~300lb of explosives).

At the time it happened Ukraine was under massive missile attack. No less than 96 air launch cruise missiles were used together with a mere half dozen sea launch Kaliber missiles (Russians allegedly have nearly run out of those) and a dozen or so Iranian drones, as well other artillery along the border with Russia, such as Smerch MLRS used on Kharkiv city.

Ukrainians claim to have shot down all the drones and some 75 of the cruise missiles, using, among multitude of other systems, the venerable s300 that still represents the backbone of Ukrainian long range high altitude air defense.

(Some independent observers think that either they were less successful or there was more, perhaps up to 130 missiles total, going by the damage done, although, for example the two fires in residential buildings in Kyiv have been reported to have been caused by the debris of downed missiles, not direct hits.)

S300 system does have known surface attack capabilities, besides its normal air defense use. It's relatively uncommon, undocumented and not optimal use by far, but Russians have done it a lot since summer, and may have used it as artillery in this attack as well. It's been speculated, Russians don't have that much work against Ukrainian air force that doesn't really try to challenge the front lines often, have fully introduced the newer S400 and are sitting on huge stockpiles of S300 rockets that are about to expire by age, so using them up in low efficiency area attacks isn't actually that crazy.

In contrast, Ukrainians have never fired one in ground attack mode, both by probably not even being familiar with the necessary modifications to do so, and, if anything, risk of shortages of the ammunition necessary for their primary role.

However, while s300 interceptor should self destruct after missing the intended target (or not finding any), Russian made air defense missiles are known to have failed to do so in several occasions. In 2019 a Syrian Sa-5 (aka s200) flew nearly 200 miles and hit Cyprus after missing an Israeli fighter jet.

Russia is claiming the closest of their targets was over 35km (22mi) from the Poland border -- with actually is still plenty close enough for a failed interceptor to land over there, and that's if you're going to believe them -- what isn't advisable in most cases of such statements.

Ukrainians claim to have tried to down a missile close to the Polish border, but refuses to admit the rocket that exploded on ground was an interceptor fired by them. What is a bit strange, imho, as that seems exceedingly logical conclusion on the information currently available publicly and no one is blaming them directly, saying, it's Russian fault regardless, since Ukraine fired in selfdefense.

It could be, that Ukrainians declared it a Russian missile at first, and now are reluctant to admit mistake (it's a toxic, but very, well, Russian, and more broadly right wing habit Ukrainians may not be immune off). It can't be dismissed it could be seen as quite gainful for them if it was true, but also rather damaging to claim so in vain. Still, Ukrainians continue to insist on in-depth investigation with their participation.

The alternative version could be that Russians fired s300 in surface mode from Belarus. The closest point on the border is some 75 miles, with is already about twice than the typical document use of s300 in that mode, but still close enough (right about their max range in AA mode) it can't be completely ruled out as possibility. They might have aimed at said power lines, perhaps, or whatever within Ukraine, and a couple miles of a miss isn't at all that unexpected for that use case, even more at double the typical distance. Or else, it might be that the missile was misidentified altogether.

Actually, the huge diplomatic storm the incident made isn't consistent with mere stray interceptor eiter...

And the NATO should know for sure already, seemingly. The newish Polish main radar see all the way to Kyiv, in theory, well, not under the horizon, obviously, but there was an AWACS plane in the air that doesn't have that limitation. Actually, the US Patriot battery was well in range too.

It's then almost surprising whatever crossed the Polish border wasn't shot down at once -- one might expect air defenses to be on high alert due to unfolding large scale battle nextdoor. Perhaps they still weren't, and to be fair, there perhaps was less than a minute of reaction time after crossing the border, and possibly not the optimal procedures in place. A logical suggestion then could be to coordinate the Polish, NATO (US elements), and Ukrainian air defense directly over the border going forward, but I wouldn't be holding my breath for that.

 

[Chobham]

The S300 system is made up of many different interceptor missiles. They are all initially guided by the tracking radar systems but at some point in the trajectory become autonomous. They do not behave like ballistic missiles and can wander off in any virtually any direction within their physics envelope. Given the point of impact in relation to the Russian lines the missile was most probably a Ukrainian unit gone astray.

When the USSR collapsed the US along with the UK purchased a complete S300 system from the Ukraine for ~$30 million in gold bullion. The system was flown to the UK where US and UK scientists/engineers reverse engineered the system. We do know S300 components when we see them.

 

[butters]

the remoteness of the area (population-wise), a 'small village' where 2 people were killed seems a strange target for a russian missile until the electricity connection is brought into things.

an accident, or an attack? if it genuinely was a case of a deliberately-fired russian missile, NATO would have no option but to address the problem. It IS possible that Z is speaking the truth but Poland, America, and other NATO members have decided it better to call it an accident rather than hugely escalate the problems already being dealt with. 2 lives instead of countless numbers. Of course I don't know... none of us do, but i could see that as quite a logical decision called by the member nations, no matter how much truth would be the victim.

 

[jaF0]

^^^ I have it in my mind that the remoteness of it could be a test to see how Poland and NATO might respond. Probing if you will. I'm not sold on the low level replies so far.

 

[Dribble]

the remoteness of the area (population-wise), a 'small village' where 2 people were killed seems a strange target for a russian missile until the electricity connection is brought into things.

an accident, or an attack? if it genuinely was a case of a deliberately-fired russian missile, NATO would have no option but to address the problem. It IS possible that Z is speaking the truth but Poland, America, and other NATO members have decided it better to call it an accident rather than hugely escalate the problems already being dealt with. 2 lives instead of countless numbers. Of course I don't know... none of us do, but i could see that as quite a logical decision called by the member nations, no matter how much truth would be the victim.

It could have been 10 lives....or 100. Doesn't matter where the missle came from. Enough is enough. We should go in...re-establish original borders...and build a big beautiful wall there.

 

[oggbashan]

It seems that it might have been a Ukrauiain anti-missile that missed its target.

If so - the ultimate blame must lie with the Russians because such a missile would not have been fired unless Russia was attacking Ukraine with missiles.

But NATO's response has been proportionate. Whoever's missile is irrelevant as long as it isn't part of a deliberate attempt by Russia to attack NATO.

But NATO is strengthening all its missile defenses along the border with Russia.

 

[ffish1]

It seems that it might have been a Ukrauiain anti-missile that missed its target.

If so - the ultimate blame must lie with the Russians because such a missile would not have been fired unless Russia was attacking Ukraine with missiles.

lol
the contorted thinking and justifications

 

[ffish1]

no, it was a Ukrainian fuck-up -- any war has them, Russians did 3 times more
what was worrying tho, was Zelenskyy's direct call to the West, to start World War 3.

 

[Chernosoth]

https://margaretannaalice.substack.com/p/my-war-missive-from-a-fallen-veteran
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F956bb5a5-3e78-4fbb-8c36-7bcf3e6548e1_1200x1199.jpeg

 

[Chobham]

Consequences

 

[jaF0]

Is Traitor Flynn connected with Wagner?

 

[Chernosoth]

The Ukraine is committing “suicide by cop”

 

[ffish1]

The Ukraine is committing “suicide by cop”

It's a mixture.

I'm just as disgusted with the war profiteers (be they Ukrainian Elites hanging on to their lucrative jobs, or the US/UK military-industrial complex)
as many laypeople who are watching this shit-show are.
------btw whenever I read Dribble's and oggbashan's patriotic posts, I feel like screaming.

But then, as an Xer I have little sense of History, even if I'm from SE Europe.
I met with a friend's parents the other day, and their own parents told them horror stories about Russian occupation after ww2.


The war of psychopaths.
As your meme says, it's the little penniless Ukrainian guy who suffers.

 

[Dribble]

Unlike some....weak individuals...I take a stand. I do not support individuals from a country if they refuse to fight tyranny. It would be like me supporting a Republican. Cowards....try to walk both sides. There is only one side of "right".

 

[ffish1]

Unlike some....weak individuals...I take a stand. I do not support individuals from a country if they refuse to fight tyranny. It would be like me supporting a Republican. Cowards....try to walk both sides. There is only one side of "right".

lol
says he, from the comfort of his couch

 

[Dribble]

lol
says he, from the comfort of his couch

Says the fish that feeds off the bottom. I have no problem voicing ...and backing that up...with the side of right.

 

[ffish1]

I have no problem voicing ...and backing that up...with the side of right.

sez eating takeaways parked on his couch

 

[Dribble]

sez eating takeaways parked on his couch

Keep thinking that bottom feeder. Only gives me more power than I already have

 

[icanhelp1]

lol
says he, from the comfort of his couch

Exactly, look how brave I am fighting the war from my living room.