War starts on command, but doesn't end when you please

[LupusDei]

All I see in this thread are some macho or righteous men pontificating from their couches.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1530285583792082945

 

[LupusDei]

...everybody is flying grass high...

...and even that doesn't help Russian Mi34 attack helicopters in MANPADS dense environment with a Ukrainian drone overhead. The first one gets away by popping flares, the second...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1537515598195859456

 

[LupusDei]

Wars never end. Ever. In the USA, we are still fighting the Civil War. Stupid I know. But the Confederacy does not want their people to see the truth. Far easier to just admit the facts...wars are never won by violence...but yet that is where they are fought. Why? Why fight on a front that can never be won? I support the Ukrainians and their cause. It is right. It is just. But it can never be won. Not until the World steps in and says enough. There are very few clear cut cases where right and wrong are so easily identifiable. Why the reluctance to assure Putin's aggression never occurs again?

So true. The WW2 ended for us here, and even then not quite yet, in 1992. Russians now believe in reenacting it in perverse way, writing "to Berlin" on their tanks in Ukraine. Some of the battles are in the almost the same places...

Even the fresh spring snow was the same eighty year later
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FMevoVSWQAgZTPM?format=jpg&name=large

Image: aftermath of possibly one the first shootouts the first day of current campaign, February 24 (that day was snow-free on those crossroads). The remains of the (allegedly Russian) soldier were still laying there almost two weeks later.

 

[mayfly13]

Hey Lupus,

First of all, to clarify:
----As opposed to the suspicion that most people around me have of America's agenda
they totally see Lithuania/Estonia/Finland's stances.
You guys have been just as victimised by Russia, as Georgia & Chechnya have been in modern era.
----Polland? Not so sure. It was just as victimised by Russia, but it's history with Ukraine is complicated.

In saying that, given your horrid history with Russia, I find you guys to be too "either you're with Russia, or with the war,"

=======================



Ok. Now to my point:
Hey. I just discovered Sorbonne-trained historians.
A few foreign channels who either invited them to talk in English, or translated them.

I like the French take on the war the most.
Imo, they highlight all parties' positives and negatives.

What is your opinion of them (French political analysts)? Where do you think THEIR bias lays?
After all, they are former Empires too, just like America, Britain and Russia, so they think like Empires.

 

[ll74]

Just because the frontlines are not moving and saying their are small daily changes is looking at it from only an operational point of view. Strategically their have been massive shifts.

Skyrocketing energy prices and interest rates have wreaked havoc in the west and will send their economies tumbling, and make their products far more expensive. In comparison, India and China gain from cheap russian gas and oil, making them even more competitive. Israel is stepping in to sell their expensive gas to europe. Anyone who has read the Merchant of Venice knows what happens when you are beholden to Shylock. It will be worse than being beholden to Putin for his gas. The losers are the west and the winners China India and Israel.

Rising food costs and grain shortages will create social unrest in the west, the middle east which is dependent on ukrainian grain, and africa. The losers are the poor, and muslims, for which israel again wins.

Social unrest in the west undermines their stability further. Rising food costs in the middle east will drive even more invasion of europe. Will they blame russia? No. They will blame the west for prolinging the war by trickling in arms to keep it going. So even more angry muslims, and we know how they take out their anger at the west. And what will eruopeans ans americans do when they see their food and heating and trasnport costs rising fast and their jobs threatened?

Only the west is ruining themselves by sanctioning russia. They are a small minority of the world. Asia and Africa is not going along and asia will score big time and are thumbing their noses at the west. Just because the west refuses to buy russian goods, so what? they have a far bigger market elsewhere.

Strategically the west has been weakened and the east strengthened. Putin has realigned russia to be more eastward focussed and will let europe weaken themselves. German industry is especially dependent on cheap russian energy. They will take a big knock. Eastern eruopean countries like Hungary who are choosing to not to perform in the circus will cause dissent in europe. Sooner or later this will lead to rifts in europe between those looking after their national interest and those playing the sanctions game.

Putin, using only 10% of his army, has managed to seriously weaken the west without firing a shot at them. It doesn't really matter to him if the front lines move, except for show.

If gas prices trumped economic hardship on Russia, Europe wouldn't even be considering it. As painful as it may seem, the west can afford the hit compared to the Russians. And there isn't much alternative besides global war

 

[LupusDei]

Skyrocketing energy prices and interest rates have wreaked havoc in the west...

The West risks mild recession, true. That's small price for avoiding global war. And, yes, given any sort of victory, even pyrrhic land grab it's right now, would mean global war in foreseeable future if not immediately. Because it's return of imperialism in the worst way and ultimately feudalism in agenda. I would go further and make the dramatic claim that survival of human race hinges on total, unquestionable defeat of Russia in this war, but that's what I believe in. How others don't see the obvious is the most irritating.

Will they blame russia? No. They will blame the west for prolinging the war by trickling in arms to keep it going. So even more angry muslims, and we know how they take out their anger at the west.

Now there's three words I can totally agree with, in a section that's rather fair analysis.

That's why we need 1,000+ howitzers and 500+ MLRS systems sent to Ukraine asap along with 10,000+ rounds daily because that's the only way this war ends quickly -- I mean, in a matter of months not years.

Otherwise it indeed matter rather little, on the big picture. If you think Zelensky can sign a humiliating peace and be done with it, without becoming a traitor right there, you're delusional, twice: in both Russian and Ukrainian moods and intentions. The war will continue as long Russia exists or is able to wage it. Where the frontline will be when it collapses is the only question.

Putin, using only 10% of his army, has managed to seriously weaken the west without firing a shot at them. It doesn't really matter to him if the front lines move, except for show.

Now, you display either your agenda, ignorance and delusion or both. That's simply not true.

They committed the largest army they could possibly manage, as determined in excercises last summer. It happened to be ~75% of their actual battle worthy forces they could possibly commit right there. Those possible reinforcements are since completely depleted.

Russians have tremendous difficulty with manpower. There's evidence they run two person tank crews, not to mention most of their problems stem from lack of infantry.

Their ability to run offensive operations are shrunk to an average of a mile a day over twenty mile wide front (out of a frontline of over thousand miles). If you think there's any element of "show" or "reluctance" whatever in that... again you're simply delusional victim of propaganda and doesn't know what you're talking about. They do their utmost. That's it. That's everything.

Mobilization, you say? They can't do that, or at least believe they can't. Again, they do their utmost right now. In the long run they will lose this war, inevitably. The only question is how long it takes.

Every weapon delivered to Ukraine shorten the war. That's the basic truth. The only truth.

 

[LupusDei]

Regarding German industry. Truth to be said, it's worse than you think. The energy imports can be relatively easily replaced, yes, at higher prices, so be it. Loss of exports is way worse, and the key here. Those two economies, Germany and Russia, are intimately connected by chance, choice and design.

German engineering be indeed denied, the flow to Russian natural resources to anywhere will case in short time, a year or two tops. (Not even to mention Russian weapons production that's already mostly at standstill.)

It's still far, far easier to weather for Germany than Russia, it's not like they're the one and only buyers, just one notable.

 

[Rightguide]

Putin is greatly over estimating the danger of a western invasion of Russia. If anyone has reason to invade Russia, it is China. China is over populated and lacks natural resources. Eastern Russia has lots of land to settle in, and lots of natural resources.

The Chinese have already laid a territorial claim to Vladivostok.

 

[Rightguide]

The current claims of the Ukrainian government on battle damage against the Russians:

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claimed that as of Thursday, Ukrainian forces have killed approximately 32,950 Russian troops (and wounded approximately thrice that number), destroyed 213 fighter, attack, and transport jets, 179 attack and transport helicopters, 1,449 tanks, 729 artillery pieces, 3,545 armored personnel carriers, 233 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), 13 boats and cutters, 2,494 vehicles and fuel tanks, 97 anti-aircraft batteries, 591 tactical unmanned aerial systems, 55 special equipment platforms, such as bridging vehicles, and four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems, and 129 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses.

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/06/the-russian-army-is-taking-massive-losses-in-eastern-ukraine/

 

[LupusDei]

Interesting tidbit. It's more on rumor level, but allegedly, there's currently "over 42 thousand" unanswered requests of information about whereabouts of Russian army personnel from relatives to the relevant administrative offices. No, I don't know what's the threshold for "unanswered" is in this. And no, it doesn't mean those all are necessary KIA & MIA, although that's the natural assumption. And in any case, that's besides the several thousand documented funerals open source investigations have collected, information on those is definitely certain. Moreover, it only covers Russia proper, not the DNR/LNR militias, and might be, not even Chechnya (although it's part of Russia).

 

[JohnEngelman]

Just because the frontlines are not moving and saying their are small daily changes is looking at it from only an operational point of view. Strategically their have been massive shifts.

Skyrocketing energy prices and interest rates have wreaked havoc in the west and will send their economies tumbling, and make their products far more expensive. In comparison, India and China gain from cheap russian gas and oil, making them even more competitive. Israel is stepping in to sell their expensive gas to europe. Anyone who has read the Merchant of Venice knows what happens when you are beholden to Shylock. It will be worse than being beholden to Putin for his gas. The losers are the west and the winners China India and Israel.

Rising food costs and grain shortages will create social unrest in the west, the middle east which is dependent on ukrainian grain, and africa. The losers are the poor, and muslims, for which israel again wins.

Social unrest in the west undermines their stability further. Rising food costs in the middle east will drive even more invasion of europe. Will they blame russia? No. They will blame the west for prolinging the war by trickling in arms to keep it going. So even more angry muslims, and we know how they take out their anger at the west. And what will eruopeans ans americans do when they see their food and heating and trasnport costs rising fast and their jobs threatened?

Only the west is ruining themselves by sanctioning russia. They are a small minority of the world. Asia and Africa is not going along and asia will score big time and are thumbing their noses at the west. Just because the west refuses to buy russian goods, so what? they have a far bigger market elsewhere.

Strategically the west has been weakened and the east strengthened. Putin has realigned russia to be more eastward focussed and will let europe weaken themselves. German industry is especially dependent on cheap russian energy. They will take a big knock. Eastern eruopean countries like Hungary who are choosing to not to perform in the circus will cause dissent in europe. Sooner or later this will lead to rifts in europe between those looking after their national interest and those playing the sanctions game.

Putin, using only 10% of his army, has managed to seriously weaken the west without firing a shot at them. It doesn't really matter to him if the front lines move, except for show.

Even if the Russians win their invasion is still unjustified and immoral.

 

[JohnEngelman]

Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn said that when Russia loses a war Russia reforms in a democratic direction. When Russia lost the Crimean War Russia ended serfdom. When Russia lost its 1905 war with Japan Russia introduced a democratically elected Duma. The Czar became a constitutional monarch. In World War I, when Germany defeated Russia, the Czar was overthrown, and the Provisional Revolutionary Government under Alexander Kerensky Russia would have continued to evolve in a democratic direction. Unfortunately, the Bolshevik take over happened. That was not a democratic revolution, but a coup by a well organized, well armed minority of political fanatics. When Russia lost its War in Afghanistan the Soviet Union came to an end.

If Russia loses its War in Ukraine, there is still hope for Russia. Solzhenitsyn also said that when Russia wins a war Russia becomes more tyrannical.

 

[LupusDei]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FVXBHwmXsAEUjm0?format=jpg&name=900x900

 

[ll74]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FVXBHwmXsAEUjm0?format=jpg&name=900x900

Can't wait until zelensky has our full deliveries

 

[rockcasbah]

Have you guys considered sponsoring a Ukrainian refugee?

Sofiadate.com

 

[LupusDei]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1537894024626905094

 

[Chernosoth]

With current tech, Ukraine has a defensive advantage, as long as it's adequately supplied with quantities of rockets and artillery. The war sponsors offshored most of their manufacturing. They don't have the capacity to resupply Ukraine while Russia fires 50,000 rockets and shells daily.

 

[Sh1ne0n67]

Yeah, the climate is changing here, And Paul is calling for an end to the endless weapons
and experts are to be found who are telling the simple truth: Russia is going to prevail.
__________________________________________
Democrat born. Democrat bred. Libertarian led (by Democrats).

 

[ishtat]

Yeah, the climate is changing here, And Paul is calling for an end to the endless weapons
and experts are to be found who are telling the simple truth: Russia is going to prevail.
__________________________________________
Democrat born. Democrat bred. Libertarian led (by Democrats).

The thing that military men and dictators never learn is that a military victory is not an end but only a beginning. If Russia prevails in the current engagement she will be looking at an anti Russian Terrorist campaign for the next 50 years. 40 million Ukranians can't just be shipped out as were the Tatars from Crimea or the Koreans from Russia's far east. A military "victory" for Putin would permanently install a cancer eating out Russia from within.

Whatever the outcome Russia loses.

 

[mayfly13]

just had a snoop --via yandex--
at RussiaToday.

Same banners;
"RUSSIA & FORMER SOVIET UNION" !!!!!!!!! which replaced the former Russia %& World banners in place until feb.2022.

And a lot of shows are now archived, including Chris Hedges' On Contact/
Chris Hedges used to post weekly on Rt to criticize Western Neoliberalism. He hasn't since the invasion. Good on him . That's patriotism -- you err, but you then correct it.

 

[LupusDei]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQ8-wWEXEAAox_8?format=jpg&name=900x900

 

[mayfly13]

..

yeah, it's more and more clear --even to myself-- that Putin wants to reconstitute some former borders. But not of the Soviet Union necessary. Of some former version of the Tzarist Russian Empire, like your crown shows.

But that doesn't absolve America&. They had, too a role to play in Ukraine's demise.

And those American-imposed sanctions are creating recession and famine in the World.
Only poor EE countries and lay-Americans are following them; Germany is still financing Russia's war.

 

[LupusDei]

yeah, it's more and more clear --even to myself-- that Putin wants to reconstitute some former borders. But not of the Soviet Union necessary. Of some former version of the Tzarist Russian Empire, like your crown shows.

LOL.
Wasn't talking with you.

Aerorazvidka is Ukrainian volunteer military programmers and DIY drone force. The real warriors of the future today.

Posted in part for that burning refinery. Even though it may not necessarily be their drone, could be army's own, although likely custom, so who knows.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1539512743333613569

Then, somewhat true that current frontline more resembles tsarist governorate borders than anything. But thinking that's not accidental would give too much credit to Russians, as obsessed by political goals they might be.

 

[LupusDei]

And those American-imposed sanctions are creating recession and famine in the World.

That's such a false narrative.

Russians are trying to sell stolen Ukrainian grain to Egypt, they isn't buying stolen goods.

The one only reason for chaos in food markets is Russia and Russia alone, and yes, the do it all very deliberately.

 

[mayfly13]

Then, somewhat true that current frontline more resembles tsarist governorate borders than anything. But thinking that's not accidental would give too much credit to Russians, as obsessed by political goals they might be.

it's something a Sorbonne-trained historian was saying, he was even showing it on a map.
In his view, we shouldn't listen to Americans who do propaganda and don't understand Russians.
He said that Russia is winning, it;s apparent chaos is the typical maskirovka they used for centuries. Just like the current mass deportations in view of Russification.

For me & others it's clear: Russia is winning, Kyiv was never it's goal, the coastal cities were.
The scary question is: will they attack other countries too, or will they contend themselves with the modern more subtle colonial rule through influence,