Your February Republican Primaries Predictions?

[Rick345]

Trump won the January republican primary and win big and he'll make the most of it.. Trump is a good salesman, he'll sell the fact he won Iowa and sell it over and over again like he did his Alabama 2015 win. Alabama the reddest state in the nation and in 2015 was a given for Trump and he made it sound like it was the biggest win in history and that propelled him toward the presidency.. it was a masterful job of salesmanship. If he would have lost Iowa he'd be toast.

But on to February, I doubt he'll win the next three NH, NV and SC.. I know for a fact he'll lose Nevada, he's not on the ballot in the silver state. Nevada didn't remove him, the dumbass forgot the send in an application, the senile old bastard screwed himself.. Between Haley and Desantis I don't know who will win Nevada.

New Hampshire is a far cry from conservative evangelical Iowa and like many, those in that state don't want the chaos that comes with Trump. SC is going to vote for their hometown girl.. So three losses in a row for Trump.. I predict Harley will win both..

Then comes Michigan and Michigan is the key.. if Trump loses in Michigan he's toast and we'll get to listen to four years of how the primaries were rigged. If he wins he'll get to be the republican presidential candidate.. Giving him have a good chance of becoming the second president in history to win two nonconsecutive terms. May God have mercy on us all. If he is nominated and loses again we'll hear incessant whining about how the election was rigged till he draws his last breath.

 

[pocjet]

 

[Fuzzy1975]

Trump won the January republican primary and win big and he'll make the most of it.. Trump is a good salesman, he'll sell the fact he won Iowa and sell it over and over again like he did his Alabama 2015 win. Alabama the reddest state in the nation and in 2015 was a given for Trump and he made it sound like it was the biggest win in history and that propelled him toward the presidency.. it was a masterful job of salesmanship. If he would have lost Iowa he'd be toast.

But on to February, I doubt he'll win the next three NH, NV and SC.. I know for a fact he'll lose Nevada, he's not on the ballot in the silver state. Nevada didn't remove him, the dumbass forgot the send in an application, the senile old bastard screwed himself.. Between Haley and Desantis I don't know who will win Nevada.

New Hampshire is a far cry from conservative evangelical Iowa and like many, those in that state don't want the chaos that comes with Trump. SC is going to vote for their hometown girl.. So three losses in a row for Trump.. I predict Harley will win both..

Then comes Michigan and Michigan is the key.. if Trump loses in Michigan he's toast and we'll get to listen to four years of how the primaries were rigged. If he wins he'll get to be the republican presidential candidate.. Giving him have a good chance of becoming the second president in history to win two nonconsecutive terms. May God have mercy on us all. If he is nominated and loses again we'll hear incessant whining about how the election was rigged till he draws his last breath.

Trump will win the primary, his supporters are fanatics. Those who won't support him will not even come out to vote, since the other two are basically similar version of him.

Trump winning the primary is the best chance for Biden to have a second term. It almost guarantees his re-election.

 

[pocjet]

 

[BrightShinyGirl]

Donald Trump will will easily win the Republican primary and will lose badly to Joe Biden in the general election in the fall. Trump is a much weaker candidate now than he was in 2020 and Biden beat him handily then.

 

[Rick345]

Trump will win the primary, his supporters are fanatics. Those who won't support him will not even come out to vote, since the other two are basically similar version of him.

Trump winning the primary is the best chance for Biden to have a second term. It almost guarantees his re-election.

Trump winning the primary gives Biden his best shot at winning the election? How so?

 

[Rick345]

Donald Trump will will easily win the Republican primary and will lose badly to Joe Biden in the general election in the fall. Trump is a much weaker candidate now than he was in 2020 and Biden beat him handily then.

I don't know if Trump has an easy win... I wouldn't count Haley or Desantis out just yet..

 

[BrightShinyGirl]

I don't know if Trump has an easy win... I wouldn't count Haley or Desantis out just yet..

The only way there will be a different Republican candidate is if Trump drops dead of a stroke before November. The base is rabidly MAGA.

 

[Rick345]

The only way there will be a different Republican candidate is if Trump drops dead of a stroke before November. The base is rabidly MAGA.

His base is rabid and rabidly MAGA but it only accounts for 10-15% of republicans. The next few primaries will tell if he actually has a stranglehold on the Grand Old Party or if Iowa was one off event..

 

[YDB95]

I'm not sure if I agree Trump getting the nomination is the best thing for Biden. If Haley or DeSantis somehow beats Trump in the primaries (I don't expect that to happen, but hypothetically), does anyone believe Mr. January 6 would concede graciously and support his party's nominee? No freakin' way. He'd run as an independent and his cult would stick with him, splitting the right-of-center vote, and Biden will waltz to re-election.

Given that Trump only got 51% in Iowa and he won't even be on the ballot in Nevada, there's at least a slight possibility things will be very interesting for the next few weeks.

 

[Rick345]

He'd run as an independent and his cult would stick with him, splitting the right-of-center vote, and Biden will waltz to re-election.

I'm sure that is exactly what Harris and Biden are praying for every night before they go to bed, that would be an easy win for Biden otherwise Biden will have a hard fight on his hands.. Mainly because he won in 2020, the republicans will swam the polls to be sure history doesn't not repeat itself.

Biden has dropped the ball on at least two of his major campaign promises student loan forgiveness, and a healthcare system that is equitable and affordable.. That means the voters which were inspired by those promises may stay home.. Plus Biden hasn't started champagning while Trump has been champagning since 01/21/21..

 

[Fuzzy1975]

Trump winning the primary gives Biden his best shot at winning the election? How so?

Trump holds only about 40% of the Republican base, the other 60% will do like they did in 2020. Hold their collectives noses and vote Biden for Pres, and Republican across the rest of the board.

Independents also don't want Trump, so the right leaning group will vote Biden, but Republican across the rest of the board. The left with Biden.

Given the volatile nature of events surrounding Trump, and Trump himself, Democrats who would normally stay home, will now once again come out to vote. With Trump on the ballot I see an even greater voter turnout at the polls than 2020 and that was a record setting election. The larger the number of total voters, the better the odds for Biden, since die hard Trumpers are a limited in numbers.

 

[coati]

I don't know if Trump has an easy win... I wouldn't count Haley or Desantis out just yet..

I tend to agree that Haley has a chance. Almost everyone in the media is making a big deal about the Iowa results, but the fact is almost half of the GOP caucus participants voted against the corrupt former President in one of the most right-wing strongholds of the Republican Party.

There is such a thing as Republican women. There is such a thing as non-MAGAt Republicans. Some Republicans actually have some education. There is an underlying desire among those constituencies to ditch the multi-indicted sociopath. If Haley wins a few primaries, she could gain momentum when people realize that don't have to stick with a total loser.

I'll stick my neck out and at least say that Haley has a chance. Desantis looks dumb as a politician by trying to out-Trump everyone, so I do not expect him to go anywhere other than sucking up to Trump when he bows out.

And I agree with others on this thread that Trump would be the weakest vote getter in the general election. Haley could actually win, not that I want her to, but she could pull it off.

 

[KeithD]

I otherwise Biden will have a hard fight on his hands..

I have faith that a vast majority of voters will chose sanity over Trump.

 

[jaF0]

Primamry results won't matter. Really no reason to even spend the money on them. Ronna McOrange will declare Dear Leader the candidate.

 

[Rick345]

While I agree Trump’s zealots are small in number I’d put them at less than 40% and many republicans will stay home or vote for Biden.. And that Independents like myself don’t want Trump within 100 miles of the Oval Office.

Were I strongly disagree is with the number of voters that will stay home and which camp is most likely not too vote.. The party not in party is the party most likely to get out and vote, those in power are less likely to vote.. If Trump gets the nomination then Dems will come out, if DeSantis or Haley are the Republican candidate Dem turn out will not be as strong as it would be if Trump were on the ticket. Biden will likely lose in that scenario..

The reason I hold out hope Trump will fail to receive the republican nomination is history. In February 2008 no one thought that skinny black guy with a funny name would be the democratic nominee, in February ‘76 no one thought a peanut farmer from Georgia would be president.. In February 2015 everyone thought Trump’s run for the presidency was some kind of joke.. So I won’t count out Nikki or Don just yet...

 

[Chernosoth]

Ron and Nikki will have a boots fashion show. Trump's hair will get bored with just sitting on his head and start an acting career.

I haven't bothered to follow much of the main party candidates, but I haven't noticed anyone yet being blasted on anything new. Redoing 2020 may hurt both parties if most people have other issues now.

 

[YDB95]

I'm sure that is exactly what Harris and Biden are praying for every night before they go to bed, that would be an easy win for Biden otherwise Biden will have a hard fight on his hands.. Mainly because he won in 2020, the republicans will swam the polls to be sure history doesn't not repeat itself.

That's really not the way it usually works.

Biden has dropped the ball on at least two of his major campaign promises student loan forgiveness, and a healthcare system that is equitable and affordable.. That means the voters which were inspired by those promises may stay home.. Plus Biden hasn't started champagning while Trump has been champagning since 01/21/21..

Not if they've been paying attention. They know he tried to deliver on loan forgiveness but the Coathanger Five blocked him, and they know health care reform is effectively impossible without substantial Democratic majorities in both houses (which he has never had).

 

[Rick345]

I have faith that a vast majority of voters will chose sanity over Trump.

I'm afraid you have way more faith in the sanity of humanity than is warranted.

 

[Rick345]

Rick345 said:
Mainly because he won in 2020, the republicans will swam the polls to be sure history doesn't not repeat itself.

That's really not the way it usually works.

Generally the parties that hold the Whitehouse oscillate:
2000 Republican
2004 Republican
2008 Democrat
2012 Democrat
2016 Republican
2020 Democrat
2024 ?

Normally an incumbent backed by a good economy is a shoe IN, but this one feels different. i think it's because Trump has been on the campaign trail since 2020. And because Biden hasn't began campaigning. Biden won in 2020 because Trump's mishandling of COVID and the insane stuff he said about it, plus the losey champaign he ran in respect to COVID..

 

[KeithD]

I'm afraid you have way more faith in the sanity of humanity than is warranted.

He hasn't won a majority of anything yet. I'm not prone to being a Chicken Little.

 

[Rick345]

I'm not prone to count my chickens before they hatch

 

[Rick345]

Redoing 2020 may hurt both parties if most people have other issues now.

that is very true

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

Trump won the January republican primary and win big and he'll make the most of it.. Trump is a good salesman, he'll sell the fact he won Iowa and sell it over and over again like he did his Alabama 2015 win. Alabama the reddest state in the nation and in 2015 was a given for Trump and he made it sound like it was the biggest win in history and that propelled him toward the presidency.. it was a masterful job of salesmanship. If he would have lost Iowa he'd be toast.

But on to February, I doubt he'll win the next three NH, NV and SC.. I know for a fact he'll lose Nevada, he's not on the ballot in the silver state. Nevada didn't remove him, the dumbass forgot the send in an application, the senile old bastard screwed himself.. Between Haley and Desantis I don't know who will win Nevada.

New Hampshire is a far cry from conservative evangelical Iowa and like many, those in that state don't want the chaos that comes with Trump. SC is going to vote for their hometown girl.. So three losses in a row for Trump.. I predict Harley will win both..

Then comes Michigan and Michigan is the key.. if Trump loses in Michigan he's toast and we'll get to listen to four years of how the primaries were rigged. If he wins he'll get to be the republican presidential candidate.. Giving him have a good chance of becoming the second president in history to win two nonconsecutive terms. May God have mercy on us all. If he is nominated and loses again we'll hear incessant whining about how the election was rigged till he draws his last breath.

The only way Trump loses NH is if Dems re-register. The problem for Nikki is that the deadline has long passed and only 3,500 people switched from Democrat to undeclared. She might come in a strong second on Tuesday, but every GOP leader in her home state of SC has endorsed Trump. Both senators and the governor. A defeat in SC sinks her i would think.

 

[Rick345]

The only way Trump loses NH is if Dems re-register. The problem for Nikki is that the deadline has long passed and only 3,500 people switched from Democrat to undeclared. She might come in a strong second on Tuesday, but every GOP leader in her home state of SC has endorsed Trump. Both senators and the governor. A defeat in SC sinks her i would think.

Damn it you are probably right. the latest polling numbers from NH don't look good for Haley..

There are 24 candidates listed on your Republican Primary ballot. The three major candidates include (RANDOMIZE) Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, and Donald Trump. At this point for whom will you vote or toward whom do you lean?
(N=500) n %
Ron DeSantis------------------------------------------------------ 33 6.60
Nikki Haley --------------------------------------------------------179 35.80
Donald Trump ---------------------------------------------------- 263 52.60
Someone else ------------------------------------------------------- 3 0.60
Undecided ---------------------------------------------------------- 18 3.60
Refused -------------------------------------------------------------- 4 0.80