The latest and greatest "model"!!!

[VaticanAssassin]

I am so sick of the news sensationalizing this tragedy for ratings. Watching politicians, Dr’s and the press trying to explain, question or rationalize these models makes my head want to explode. I may be biased but they need to get an actuarial on TV to explain this. For weeks I have been bitching about how incorrect the initial models are. Now there are new models. I still do not like them. I do not like the news only reporting one side of the facts and always worst case. So, I am going get on my soap box and post some positive news and perspectives as well as my thoughts on the greatest latest models. No, I am not saying we should not social distance and follow CDC guild lines.


• OMG new models call for ~100k to ~200K deaths!!!!! (Down from millions in the initial BS models)
o This model is correctly based on US data. Fact is China, Russia, Iran data are completely unbelievable. SK and others are too small to be relevant and would be outliers. Italy’s population is vastly different, and their data is not “apples to apples’ as they are essentially reporting all non- traumas as COV related.
o The model (incorrectly, IMO) assumes data from NY in NJ will present across our total population. Why I think it is incorrect?
 NY, NYC has the highest population density of any state/city in the USA. Manhattan has the highest population density of any county in the USA.
 Based on the cases and timing it is obvious NY had a high rate of infection prior to current and even initial guidelines. This is not the case for most of the rest of the USA.



• OMG we do not have enough ventilators/beds!!!
o The USA has roughly 160K ventilators. France, UK, Spain, Italy all started this with roughly 5k each. Germany was the in the best shape in Europe at 25K. (This is the difference between National and Private health care FYI)
o The USA has roughly 34.7 ICU beds for every 100K people. Germany is the next best at 29.2K per 100K. The rest of Europe?? The average is 7.9 per 100K.
o Nobody is dying because they can’t get on a ventilator. The federal government and every state are correctly sitting on caches.
 Hospitals and Governors are all preparing for a worst-case scenario that may or may not come. So, the Hospitals yell at the Governors they need more (Just in case). The governors deploy where they can and hold some back for any hospital that gets critically low or hit hard.
 The governors then yell at the Feds saying they need more (Just in case). The Feds are deploying them where they can and holding back some in case any state get critically low.


• OMG why are we not testing more!!!
o Initial test from China/SK had an extremely high rate of false positive and negatives. The most prevalent test being used now is still not 100% and only weeks out of development. New, faster and easier test have been developed.
o Yet we have still managed to test more in total than any other country and are testing more than any other country daily.
o How long does the press think it takes to develop, manufacture, and distribute a product for 327m people?
•

Am I going to die!!? Well probably not. While we do need to protect our elderly and there will be outliers if you are under 65 and have no preexisting condition you are probably safe.
• 99.2% of all mortality’s have had a preexisting condition
• The median age of death is ~69
• If you are under 65 and no preexisting condition you have more than a 99.8% chance of surviving. (No this is not me suggesting you go out and party and socialize)

 

[HisArpy]

There is no model that will accurately predict the final tally. The best we can do is a projected "worst case scenario" and hope that it'll be better than that. Or at least no worse.

As Pence told Wolf Blitzer this am, these will be American lives lost. They will be our loved ones, friends, and acquaintances. They aren't just a number.

 

[Curmudgeonly]

Panic sells.

 

[VaticanAssassin]

There is no model that will accurately predict the final tally. The best we can do is a projected "worst case scenario" and hope that it'll be better than that. Or at least no worse.

As Pence told Wolf Blitzer this am, these will be American lives lost. They will be our loved ones, friends, and acquaintances. They aren't just a number.

Your are correct. Models are only as good as the data we have. In the absence of various elements we can typically plug in safe assumptions based on historical data. There is no historical data for this virus.

That being said.... I am pretty, sure the actuaries creating the models here are have more experience and are smarter than me. Well I hope they are... But yet,again and again they put out this scary over inflated models like they are real.

All while the news only reports the bad.

Maybe it is because we live in a society were people eat tide pods and they think we need to be scared in to limiting contact....

Yes people will be lost. One person dies in the USA roughly every 12 seconds. A weekly average is about 50K. Last week it was about 40K. That inlcudes COV deaths. ( Decrease in traffic deaths was the primary reason)

So if you look at it net/net. Thimgs are not so bad....

 

[sygn]

I am so sick of the news sensationalizing this tragedy for ratings. Watching politicians, Dr’s and the press trying to explain, question or rationalize these models makes my head want to explode.

I may be biased but they need to get an actuarial on TV to explain this.
For weeks I have been bitching about how incorrect the initial models are. Now there are new models. I still do not like them.

I'm only referring to half of your message, not the assessment of the pandemic or the criticism of the Liberal press.


# I sometimes feel it's a confusing mess.

First experts tell us "no need to wear masks in public all the time, they don't work 100% anyway." Now Germany, Austria, other European/US experts are recommending masks in public all the time.
-- First the reassurances of WHO - no need to ban flights, just screen or quarantine arrivals. Now WHO: omg the pandemic is getting worse, worst crisis since ww2.
-- Europe goes in lockdown, Sweden advocates against lockdown and keeps pubs open.

To make it even more confusing, Reuters said that White House told federal health agency to classify coronavirus deliberations.
Pretty unusual measure for any pandemic.

 

[Conager]

@Vat my thread on one's own risk being more than just arithmetic computations went completely over most poster's heads. At some point modeling was in the news so the nudnicks sputtered, "but, but, MODELS use math!!" because I pointed out that some of the math was completely meaningless because of the unknowns.


@HisArpy- True if your friend, family member or acquaintance is in the .05% of the population that might die under the current, worst case model.

Which also assumes low efficacy of treatment experiments on those most vulnerable and hospitalized.

Your odds go up significantly if your loved one lives in a densely populated city. Does anyone know anyone in, say NYC, you'd miss? I don't.

Newark ain't looking good, but my mans Smooth ain't lived his whole reckless life to this point to be taken out by no virus.

 

[HisArpy]

@Vat my thread on one's own risk being more than just arithmetic computations went completely over most poster's heads. At some point modeling was in the news so the nudnicks sputtered, "but, but, MODELS use math!!" because I pointed out that some of the math was completely meaningless because of the unknowns.


@HisArpy- True if your friend, family member or acquaintance is in the .05% of the population that might die under the current, worst case model.

Which also assumes low efficacy of treatment experiments on those most vulnerable and hospitalized.

Your odds go up significantly if your loved one lives in a densely populated city. Does anyone know anyone in, say NYC, you'd miss? I don't.

Newark ain't looking good, but my mans Smooth ain't lived his whole reckless life to this point to be taken out by no virus.

We are only 7 degrees of separation apart from everyone else. That means these will be our friends, loved ones, acquaintances, or just someone who nodded at someone who is a friend of someone who knows one of our friends who, and so on.

At the very least they are our fellow human beings.


They are not "just numbers". Not to me and certainly not to their own families and friends.

China owes the world an explanation on how they let their bio-weapon get out of control.

 

[Conager]

I didn't say I am not acquainted, I said I wouldn't miss. Lots of people that I would never miss die every day. Most of those deaths, I no direct responsibility for.

 

[Hugh_Essay]

We are only 7 degrees of separation apart from everyone else. That means these will be our friends, loved ones, acquaintances, or just someone who nodded at someone who is a friend of someone who knows one of our friends who, and so on.

At the very least they are our fellow human beings.


They are not "just numbers". Not to me and certainly not to their own families and friends.

China owes the world an explanation on how they let their bio-weapon get out of control.

Bio weapon.

Did they manufacture it in a lab?

 

[Conager]

You don't manufacture bio-material, you cultivate it. This particular disease was not genetically modified, but was available in that area where also they were known to be isolating and studying specifically SARS type corona viruses.

The labs have been accused of selling lab animals for human consumption.

 

[BoyNextDoor]

You should hold a big "anti-sensationalizing this tragedy" rally.

 

[Conager]

You should hold a big "anti-sensationalizing this tragedy" rally.

Do you mean like how New Orleans Mayor encouraged Mardi Gras, DeBlasio encouraged anyone who's asymptomatic to do all the the things that you normally, go to bars and restaurants? Or more like help Pelosi urge to everyone to go sample the delights of Chinatown?

 

[BoyNextDoor]

I mean like how clearly the people that contained SARS, H1-N1 and ebola can't develop a model to describe the virology of Covid-19.

How dare they! Who do they think they are - rocket scientists?!

 

[Hugh_Essay]

You don't manufacture bio-material, you cultivate it. This particular disease was not genetically modified, but was available in that area where also they were known to be isolating and studying specifically SARS type corona viruses.

The labs have been accused of selling lab animals for human consumption.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucel...lab-study-shows-natural-origins/#7dd663223728

No, COVID-19 Coronavirus Was Not Bioengineered. Here’s The Research That Debunks That Idea

Some folks including politicians in both the U.S. and China have suggested that the COVID-19 coronavirus (SARS-CoV2) that’s causing the pandemic may actually be a bioweapon that was manufactured in a lab. The only difference between their conspiracy theories is who’s being accused of doing the manufacturing.

Nope, looks like it wasn't manufactured in a lab.

 

[BoyNextDoor]

Nope, looks like it wasn't manufactured in a lab.

If PJ Media doesn't "debunk it" than it must be true.

 

[SpeareChucker]

All current models are based on incomplete data.

In these cases we usually use/substitute
models based upon similar, but more complete, data sets.
Right now, that parallel modeling would be the flu,
but since the ruling class is dead set on the idea that
SARS-CoV-2 is nothing at all like the flu and only stupid
people would make such a comparison, the Scientific
community is loath to do what it knows is right since
they will not produce the desired results and this
could hurt their standing with the people who have
the money to support research: the ruling class...

At his point, those without a degree in Science
(or possibly no degree at all... )
will jump I and scream mindless serious charges
such as, "YOU JUST HATE SCIENCE!!!"

 

[Conager]

Nope, looks like it wasn't manufactured in a lab.

Learn to read.

See that part where I said it was not genetically modified and that it was naturally occurring?

 

[icanhelp1]

I'm only referring to half of your message, not the assessment of the pandemic or the criticism of the Liberal press.


# I sometimes feel it's a confusing mess.

First experts tell us "no need to wear masks in public all the time, they don't work 100% anyway." Now Germany, Austria, other European/US experts are recommending masks in public all the time.
-- First the reassurances of WHO - no need to ban flights, just screen or quarantine arrivals. Now WHO: omg the pandemic is getting worse, worst crisis since ww2.
-- Europe goes in lockdown, Sweden advocates against lockdown and keeps pubs open.

To make it even more confusing, Reuters said that White House told federal health agency to classify coronavirus deliberations.
Pretty unusual measure for any pandemic.

I believe you have to take the mask issue as two events. The first event when considering the most effective use of n95 mask was defensive and to insure frontline healthcare specialist got first crack at all versions of PPE including mask. I believe a glut was anticipated and shortages where predicted but the intensity was not completely understood. The defensive use of a mask was to protect a healthcare worker against the virus which to this very day is an essential use of PPE. The government's inability to step in and control PPE commodities and develop a central distribution center ( FEMA ) and act as a collection point for all retail and wholesale product distribution was a big mistake. Allowing individual states to bid on equipment orders directly from manufacturing or from overseas merchants where finite resources and capability developed into critical shortages, hording and price gouging and needs to be studied. States should not bid against states and the feds. Usually decentralization and competition lower prices except when a commodity is critical and limited then the opposite takes effect. In the time of crisis a more military style approach where the gov procures commodities at one agreed upon price and fills requisitions to their customers ( the states ) where each state has a representative at the FEMA level to interact with each state's emergency management agency and requisitions are filled based on urgency of need and supply ( a supply tzar ).

The second event is the public use of mask where that is an offensive approach. If each individual wears a mask they contain the contagion to within themselves, that is a no brainer!! I believe we were sold a bill of goods earlier because our experts knew they fucked up and tried to ease the demand load on limited supply availability and protect our first line medical response teams.

There were many big mistakes made by every level of government and we're adjusting but China caused this and the blame sits squarely on them. I believe Trump is keeping a low profile with Ji to not upset the supply line but I believe if and when we recover from this if Trump doesn't come down hard on China he will lose the election by a large margin and we get Sleepy Joe who is more amiable towards China.

 

[sygn]

I believe you have to take the mask issue as two events.

Yes, true. But still..

 

[bellisarius]

All current models are based on incomplete data.

In these cases we usually use/substitute
models based upon similar, but more complete, data sets.
Right now, that parallel modeling would be the flu,
but since the ruling class is dead set on the idea that
SARS-CoV-2 is nothing at all like the flu and only stupid
people would make such a comparison, the Scientific
community is loath to do what it knows is right since
they will not produce the desired results and this
could hurt their standing with the people who have
the money to support research: the ruling class...

At his point, those without a degree in Science
(or possibly no degree at all... )
will jump I and scream mindless serious charges
such as, "YOU JUST HATE SCIENCE!!!"

Precisely the point. We have no idea how many have been infected and have gone undiagnosed. Now that knowledge will not change the actual number of deaths from the Wuhan Flu, but it might dramatically change the mortality % rate.

This is a classic case of "advocate" journalism.

Identify a problem. (In this case it is very real.)
Blow it all out of proportion. (as if reality isn't bad enough)
Use it to further a political agenda.

Of course it helps if there's some consistency in the message and in this case there isn't.

 

[SpeareChucker]

I concur.

This is a perfect example of politics pandering to an angry mob...

 

[sygn]

I don't quite understand this modeling thing

but don't you need to take in consideration the fact that 2-3 months ago, based on China's bullshit official data (no. of deaths) , the World believed that the virus was far less virulent?
Whereas US Intelligence just revealed that they believe the death toll in China to have been A Lot higher?
It's a different perspective leading to different models.


This NY doctor also says that from what she witnessed, in NY, the virus isn't 'behaving' as described in other places:
it also causes serious illness in young people without comorbities.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QtvNc9vhx94

 

[SpeareChucker]

Initial conditions are crucial for any model.
It is hard to develop a predictive model and
even if you have the mathematical grail,
without proper initial data, it will fail...

 

[bellisarius]

Initial conditions are crucial for any model.
It is hard to develop a predictive model and
even if you have the mathematical grail,
without proper initial data, it will fail...

Even with the proper initial data the model starts to fall apart if the population under study changes its behavior. Essentially you're shooting at a moving target.

 

[Adre]

Bill Gates called this five years ago, including the big blow to the economy. We pay a price when we ignore the smart people. We wasted half of January and all of February, and were totally unprepared for the pandemic that many knew would eventually come.