The latest and greatest "model"!!!

[icanhelp1]

Initial conditions are crucial for any model.
It is hard to develop a predictive model and
even if you have the mathematical grail,
without proper initial data, it will fail...

When China says the virus is not transmittable from human to human, do you think that has any influence on how you deal with it right from the beginning?

 

[SpeareChucker]

Even with the proper initial data the model starts to fall apart if the population under study changes its behavior. Essentially you're shooting at a moving target.

That is a good point.
My experience was in models where all
variables were known and accounted for.

 

[SpeareChucker]

When China says the virus is not transmittable from human to human, do you think that has any influence on how you deal with it right from the beginning?

Indeed.
President Xi and the Communist Party are the bad players here but
our Left has labeled President Trump and the Republican Party as
Satan and his profiteering minions of Capitalism...

 

[icanhelp1]

Indeed.
President Xi and the Communist Party are the bad players here but
our Left has labeled President Trump and the Republican Party as
Satan and his profiteering minions of Capitalism...

Nancy wants to torch Trump and the economy!

 

[bellisarius]

Nancy wants to torch Trump and the economy!

That IS the point. Trump has to get the economy restarted and soon.

 

[SpeareChucker]

Nancy wants to torch Trump and the economy!

Long ago they made the political calculus to go negative
as preferable to go positive and offer something "better."
This is why Schiff is out there demanding another investigation;
this time into the coronavirus "response."

We've seen that play before and it will begin with serious charge,
specious fact, unsupported allegation and turn out
to be much ado about nothing...

 

[IsItBad]

dammit

here i was expecting a young bridget bardot or something

instead some freaking covid crap

 

[SpeareChucker]

That IS the point. Trump has to get the economy restarted and soon.

He should have been as resolute as Sweden.
I expect more than caving to panic from my leadership...

 

[Adre]

Indeed.
President Xi and the Communist Party are the bad players here but
our Left has labeled President Trump and the Republican Party as
Satan and his profiteering minions of Capitalism...

Your tribe loves their hyperbole. Observing someone’s misstatements and incompetency is hardly labeling them Satan.

 

[zipman]

Bill Gates called this five years ago, including the big blow to the economy. We pay a price when we ignore the smart people. We wasted half of January and all of February, and were totally unprepared for the pandemic that many knew would eventually come.

Leave the three stooges alone.

They've come to the conclusion that modeling isn't an exact science. Of course no one said it is, but that doesn't matter.

The reason that doctors and scientists use modeling is because it is a useful tool for predicting the future in complex systems. It is especially useful for pandemics.

But let's give them a big round of applause anyway.

 

[bellisarius]

Bill Gates isn't particularly prescient. Anyone with half a brain knew that this could happen at anytime. All Gates has going for him is the press. He's a celebrity so he gets the coverage.

 

[SpeareChucker]

Hindsight is almost always 20/20

...

This morning, MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough claimed that, unlike the Trump administration, “Everybody saw this coming in early January.” As far as I can tell, in the entire month of January, Morning Joe didn’t reference the coronavirus once to his 2.6 million followers on Twitter. [In January, Joe was focused solely on impeachment. A_J] Imagine the thousands of lives Scarborough could have saved if he had only shared his insight.

Does “everyone” include the World Health Organization, which claimed in a January 14 tweet (reflecting earlier findings) that preliminary investigations into Chinese authorities found “no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus”?

...

Even if Scarborough had warned us, what would the public have done differently in early January, before a single confirmed case in the United States? When Trump “did something” in late January and restricted travel to China, I don’t recall a single mainstream pundit applauding him for taking the virus seriously. (In fact, the opposite happened.)

And even if we had “listened to the scientists,” the United States wouldn’t have been able to avert the coronavirus. Expert predictions were all over the place, and very few researchers or scientists came close to calling the spread correctly. But now we’re going to act as if politicians were negligent for failing to try to lock down the entire economy in early January? In mid March, you could hardly get people off beach in Florida, but you think the American public was going to consent to deep-freeze the economy and shut down the NFL in January? To say such things is just armchair quarterbacking of the most cynical kind.

Major media outlets, incidentally, ran plenty of their own stories in January and February tempering fears over coronavirus. And that’s okay, too. As I’ve argued elsewhere, it’s impossible to be on a perpetual war footing, organizing and planning for every known emergency and eventuality at all times. Of course there is great room for improvement. Of course we should have more flexibility to produce ventilators or other emergency equipment. But it’s unrealistic for the public to expect there is any policy proposal or political leader that can immunize us from disasters such as this one.

DAVID HARSANYI, NRO


https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/armchair-quarterbacks-try-to-rewrite-history-on-coronavirus/

 

[sygn]

1. The government's inability to step in and control PPE commodities and develop a central distribution center ( FEMA ) and act as a collection point for all retail and wholesale product distribution was a big mistake.

2. Allowing individual states to bid on equipment orders directly from manufacturing or from overseas merchants where finite resources and capability developed into critical shortages, hording and price gouging and needs to be studied. States should not bid against states and the feds. Usually decentralization and competition lower prices except when a commodity is critical and limited then the opposite takes effect. In the time of crisis a more military style approach where the gov procures commodities at one agreed upon price and fills requisitions to their customers ( the states ) where each state has a representative at the FEMA level to interact with each state's emergency management agency and requisitions are filled based on urgency of need and supply ( a supply tzar ).

Exactly.

No.2 is a more sophisticated issue, but no.1 is so common sense!! How tf didn't they foresee it? The hoarders and crooks.

Jomar posted a link to local Office Depots a week ago. Up till that time they were still selling packs of 20 n95 masks, max. 10 per person.

But it isn't just the gaffe of US government.
Australia, for example: It was recently revealed that two (part- Chinese/part-Australian owned) property development companies sent 90 tons of Australian medical supplies to China!

" This was done after Greenland's Australian staff were deployed from normal HR and management duties to go out shopping for masks, sanitiser, thermometers and gloves to be sent to Wuhan.
News.com.au has now learnt even more supplies - vitally needed by Australian doctors and nurses in the coronavirus outbreak - have been sent to China by other exporters."
https://www.dailymercury.com.au/news/90-tonnes-of-supplies-shipped-to-china/3983282/

If each individual wears a mask they contain the contagion to within themselves, that is a no brainer!! I believe we were sold a bill of goods earlier because our experts knew they fucked up and tried to ease the demand load on limited supply availability and protect our first line medical response teams.

I'm starting to think that too.
Interestingly enough, All Western countries followed this two-stage pattern.

 

[Adre]

Bill Gates isn't particularly prescient. Anyone with half a brain knew that this could happen at anytime. All Gates has going for him is the press. He's a celebrity so he gets the coverage.

He spelled it out very precisely in a 2015 TED talk. Suggesting he has half a brain is par for the course for a knowitall like you. I don’t recall anyone else making such a concrete prediction.

 

[sygn]

There were many big mistakes made by every level of government and we're adjusting but China caused this and the blame sits squarely on them.

I believe Trump is keeping a low profile with Ji to not upset the supply line but I believe if and when we recover from this if Trump doesn't come down hard on China he will lose the election by a large margin and we get Sleepy Joe who is more amiable towards China.

Yes!
I disagree with most GB conservatives, it's obvious that Trump Made a few gaffes and mistakes.

But so did ALL the leaders of Western countries.
In Australia and Canada health professionals were ringing alarm bells for quite a while (need for medical supplies, more strict distancing rules than up to 50 gatherings) - their letters gained tens of thousands of signatures -- but the government and massmedia kept it under blackout. It took the Bondi Beach disaster for them to realize they need to close public beaches.

But that's in the past, it's insane how both your Left/Right leaning massmedia keep rehashing that, instead of looking forward.
The Board reads like a 2 weeks pre-election bulletin.

 

[SpeareChucker]

Uhhhhh...,


What path forward are you advocating?

 

[bellisarius]

He spelled it out very precisely in a 2015 TED talk. Suggesting he has half a brain is par for the course for a knowitall like you. I don’t recall anyone else making such a concrete prediction.

So the fuck what. Epidemiologists have been talking about this since 1918.

 

[SpeareChucker]

It's easy to speculate about a "generic" outbreak of disease,
but quite a different thing to prepare for a specific
and completely unknown disease, unless,
the Left now wants to backtrack and
say we should have acted like...



... it was the flu.

 

[Aglaopheme]

He spelled it out very precisely in a 2015 TED talk. Suggesting he has half a brain is par for the course for a knowitall like you. I don’t recall anyone else making such a concrete prediction.

They act like our intelligence agencies and health experts had absolutely nothing to say about Covid. As if they were not waring the administration back in early January. As if they were not seeing what was happening on the ground across the globe first hand and reporting that back to the administration. All the while, Trump was downplaying it, and others receiving the same briefings were dumping stocks.

 

[sygn]

Uhhhhh...,

What path forward are you advocating?

I'm not advocating.
Just noticing what's been startling me -- the extent to which most massmedia, like the GB, seem mainly focused on election stuff // Trump+ versus Trump-.

It's insane, eh? My rellies in the States -who, strangely enough now changed their previously harsh stance on Trump- say they're watching the minimum of news, because they're fed up.

 

[sygn]

They act like our intelligence agencies and health experts had absolutely nothing to say about Covid. As if they were not waring the administration back in early January. As if they were not seeing what was happening on the ground across the globe first hand and reporting that back to the administration.

All the while, Trump was downplaying it, and others receiving the same briefings were dumping stocks.

This is so interesting.
If true, it puts a different spin on Trump.

 

[Adre]

So the fuck what. Epidemiologists have been talking about this since 1918.

Tell that to your President. He didn’t seem to know.

 

[HisArpy]

He spelled it out very precisely in a 2015 TED talk. Suggesting he has half a brain is par for the course for a knowitall like you. I don’t recall anyone else making such a concrete prediction.

1. PLEASE learn how to fucking READ. NO ONE "suggested" that Gates has half a brain - that's YOU fucking up in your reading comprehension rather than anyone else saying/doing something.

2. As for predictions, there have been soothsayers and seers predicting the end of the world for a few centuries now. I believe there's even a foursome of mythical horseman who are supposed to be very experienced on this particular subject.

 

[Hugh_Essay]

Learn to read.

See that part where I said it was not genetically modified and that it was naturally occurring?

Take it easy, queeflord. We know it wasnt manufactured in a lab.

 

[SpeareChucker]

Response to post #45

That is because in a nation so deeply divided over the philosophy
and purpose of government, the stakes are extraordinarily high
and for the most part, the MSM is an advocacy group for only
one of the polities, so their daily mission is to restore the
imbalance of power in favor of their perceived peers.

When Obama was President, the focus was on
what is right with the country and its leadership
just as the focus is now firmly upon the negatives
of government, especially the President.

It is a logical fallacy:

The government failed us.
Trump is the public head of the government.
Therefore Trump failed us.

It's one of the first fallacies discussed in Logic 101.