BabyBoomer50s
Capitalist
- Joined
- Nov 27, 2018
- Posts
- 14,261
Polls do not predict outcomes. They provide a snapshot in time with a margin of error, typically around +/- 3%He won't win
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Polls do not predict outcomes. They provide a snapshot in time with a margin of error, typically around +/- 3%He won't win
I've noticed a lot on the right imply a major shift their way due to the verdict. It will be interesting to see.Sorry, just scanned the article and didn’t see any links to actual questions and cross tabs. Advise ignoring the headline. Only one day of polling occurred after the verdict. Probably will take a couple of weeks and several polls before we see how or if the verdict impacts the poll standings.
https://issuesinsights.com/2024/06/...biden-in-court-of-voter-opinion-ii-tipp-poll/
Same. I’m ignoring the spin from both sides and will wait to digest the polling in the days and weeks ahead. My gut feeling is the case was already baked into public opinion prior to the actual verdict but we’ll have to see what the data says.I've noticed a lot on the right imply a major shift their way due to the verdict. It will be interesting to see.
I don't expect that the verdict realistically changed anyone's vote. If anything, the actual cases being filed are what drove changes in voting choice.
I would be surprised if I am wrong....there are so many novel happenings during this election cycle....which make it difficult to predict.
Polling and forecasting website 538, originally known as FiveThirtyEight, said that Biden wins November's race 53 times out of 100 when run through a prediction simulation, with Trump coming out on top 47 times out of a hundred.
The simulation forecast is based on a number of factors, including adjusted polling averages, economic and political indicators, as well as demographic data to explore likely election outcomes.
I just posted this one directly.Joe Biden Favored to Beat Donald Trump in 538 Election Forecast
https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-beat-donald-trump-538-forecast-election-2024-1911231
I just posted this one directly.
Technically, the polling group says tied (they are owned by ABC)I find the headlines interesting. ABC says tied. Newsweek says Biden ahead.
Gotta love the media.
I strongly support sending Joe Biden to the UkraineDo you support or oppose allowing Ukraine to join NATO?
YouGov surveyed 2008 (number)US adults
Conducted Sep 30, 2022
Strongly support
36%
Somewhat support
20%
Somewhat oppose
7%
Strongly oppose
6%
Not sure
31%
https://today.yougov.com/topics/travel/survey-results/daily/2022/09/30/7fd8c/1
This thread isn't about youI strongly support sending Joe Biden to the Ukraine
I enjoy how daily caller hijacks CNN.CNN Data Guru Details How Biden’s Struggles With Hispanic Voters Could Sink Him In Two Key States
https://images.dailycaller.com/image/width=960,height=411,fit=cover,f=auto/https://cdn01.dailycaller.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/DCNF-Enten-Berman-Trump-Hispanic-Featured.jpg
Screenshot/Grabien/CNN
https://dailycaller.com/files/images/DCNF-large.jpg
HAROLD HUTCHISONREPORTER
June 10, 202411:00 AM ET
CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten described Monday how President Joe Biden could lose two crucial swing states due to his struggles with Hispanic voters.
Biden’s lead over former President Donald Trump among Hispanic voters dropped by 20 points from 2020, according to an aggregate of polls compiled by Enten. The CNN data guru noted that the swing states of Nevada and Arizona, both won by Biden in 2020, have significant Hispanic populations. (RELATED: ‘No Sign Of A Backlash’: CNN Data Guru Says More Foreign-Born Voters Back Trump Over Biden)
“Let’s take a look here,” Enten told “CNN News Central” host John Berman. “Hispanics share of likely voters. Where are these campaigns going to be focusing if they’re focusing on Hispanic voters? Well, it’s pretty clear from this screen, John, that they’re going to be focusing on the Southwest, right? Nevada, 19%, that’s percentage of Hispanics makeup of likely voters. How about Arizona? They make up 17%.”
More here: https://dailycaller.com/2024/06/10/...es-hispanic-voters-could-sink-two-key-states/
More bad news for Democrats.