Swing state polls

[Politruk]

From Forbes.

Georgia: Trump leads Harris 52% to 45% in a Quinnipiac poll released Wednesday, after a Friday Wall Street Journal poll found her up by one point, 46% to 45%, and a Thursday Emerson poll showed Trump up one point, 49% to 48%. Trump leads by 1.7 points in Five Thirty Eight’s polling average.

North Carolina: Harris has a two-point lead, 49% to 47%, in the Wednesday Quinnipiac poll, while Trump is up one point, 46% to 45%, in the Wall Street Journal poll and holds a 0.4-point advantage in Five Thirty Eight’s polling average.

Pennsylvania: Harris holds a four-point advantage, 50% to 47% (but closer to four points when not rounded up) in a Saturday pair of New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College polls and also has the same lead in an Oct. 9 Quinnipiac poll, though Friday’s Wall Street Journal Poll gives Trump a one-point advantage, 46% to 45%, and the Thursday Emerson poll also found him up one point, 49% to 48%. Trump leads Harris by 0.7 points in Five Thirty Eight’s polling average.

Arizona: Trump leads Harris, 51% to 46%, in the Times’ poll, a margin nearly unchanged from last month, and also leads by two points, 49% to 47%, in the Thursday Emerson poll, while Harris leads Trump, 47% to 45%, in the latest Wall Street Journal Poll. Trump is up 1.6 points in Five Thirty Eight’s polling average.
Michigan: Harris leads Trump 47% to 45% in the Wall Street Journal poll, a change from the Emerson poll that shows Trump tied with Harris and from Trump’s three-point lead (50% to 47%) in the Oct. 9 Quinnipiac poll—though Harris is still up 0.8 in Michigan in Five Thirty Eight’s polling average.

Wisconsin: Harris holds a 1-point lead in Friday’s Journal poll, while Trump leads Harris by two points, 48% to 46%, in the Oct. 9 Quinnipiac poll, and the two are tied at 49% in the Emerson poll. Harris is up 0.7 points in Five Thirty Eight’s average.
Nevada: The Journal poll has Trump up by 5 points. Harris is up one point, 48% to 47%, in the Emerson survey. Harris leads by 0.8 points in Five Thirty Eight’s polling average.

 

[Politruk]

So if we add up the numbers:

Trump is ahead in:
Georgia -- 16 electoral votes

Harris is ahead in:
Pennsylvania -- 20
Michigan -- 16

Polls go both ways in:
North Carolina -- 16
Arizona -- 11
Wisconsin -- 10
Nevada -- 6

 

[Yarglenurp]

This is the last month, the polls really don’t mean shit at this point. They’re not going to be accurate at all.

 

[Politruk]

This is the last month, the polls really don’t mean shit at this point. They’re not going to be accurate at all.

If not now, when would they mean something?

Polls get closer to reflecting actual results the closer they are taken to E-Day.

 

[Yarglenurp]

If not now, when would they mean something?

Polls get closer to reflecting actual results the closer they are taken to E-Day.

Yes… but they also get more valuable as a platform for people who pay for them. It is because they are perceived as closer to the actual result that they are also thus the most valuable and susceptible to manipulation.

 

[Politruk]

Anyone know what odds they're giving in Vegas?

And whether that was a reliable predictor in previous elections?

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

Anyone know what odds they're giving in Vegas?

And whether that was a reliable predictor in previous elections?

Realclear Politics publishes betting odds from multiple betting houses and tracks the rolling averages. In close elections like this, the odds can fluctuate wildly, especially on Election Day as results start coming in. There really are no reliable predictors for this election.

 

[ll74]

From Forbes.

We have a thread for polls.

 

[rainsol]

From Forbes.

What a dork, the Guardian predicted this landslide 3 weeks ago.