Just the Polls

ll74

Your Best Friend
Joined
Aug 22, 2013
Posts
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That's it. Post a political poll. Just one. Could be on anything like policies, candidates, parties, Presidents. I prefer the source of the poll along with high level outcomes, but won't be upset as long as the source is available in some regard.
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The reason behind this is that I typically see threads of polls which support an author's perspective or fav candidate, but refrain when those same polls turn sour against the same. So I expect that people will post theirs and their opposition will post theirs and we may see the balance that exists more than not.
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I do encourage folks to go to sites like FiveThirtyEight.com and RealClearPolitics.com which do a fairly good job of collecting polls annd weighting them based on credibility. If, for no other reason than to see a good number of polls curated in one place.
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Please feel free to PM me with additional resources that you believe should be added here.

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Basic rules:
1. When possible, provide the originating source of the poll rather than articles referring to them. (I may follow up article posts with the originator from time to time - it's not meant to be a criticism or shit post).
2. If you can't provide the URL to your poll, it's your fault. "Google it" is not relevant.

My perspective is that polls be provided for objective information. Having your own commentary is fine, but this thread is meant to allow others to have their own perspective and therefore have access to the same originating data. Don't blame others if you can't understand this.
 
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GA poll 9/14/22
https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3855
Quinnipiac (538 rating - A-)

Governor
50 percent of likely voters support Republican incumbent Brian Kemp and 48 percent support Democratic challenger Stacey Abrams, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University poll of likely voters in Georgia released today.

Senate
Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock leads Republican challenger Herschel Walker 52 - 46 percent.

Most Urgent Issue
Asked to choose the most urgent issue facing Georgia today, inflation (41 percent) ranks first among likely voters followed by abortion (12 percent), election laws (12 percent), and gun violence (12 percent).
 
Wisconsin
Fox News Poll (538 - A/B rating)
https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-wisconsin-senate-race-shifts-johnsons-favor

Johnson up 4 pts
A new Fox News survey of Wisconsin registered voters finds Johnson preferred over his Democratic challenger by 4 points: 44% Barnes vs. 48% Johnson. Last month, it was Barnes who was up by 4 (50-46%).

Important issues
Preservation of American democracy (24%), inflation (20%), and abortion (16%) are the most important issues to voters in the Senate race
 
Lit used to have a poll option. It was fun. The owners took the fun out. I guess this was just better software.


🤷‍♂️
 
Arizona - Sept 22-26
Fox News (538 - A/B eating)
https://www.foxnews.com/official-po...na-senate-race-hobbs-lake-battle-governorship

Senate Race-- Kelly up 6 on Masters
The poll finds 46% would support Kelly if voting today, while 40% would back Masters. That 6-point advantage is within the margin of sampling error -- and down from 8 points in August, when 50% supported Kelly vs. 42% for Masters. Among only those certain they will vote, the race barely shifts: 47% for Kelly vs. 42% Masters

The issues most important to the Senate race are border security (18%), the preservation of American Democracy (18%), inflation (17%), and abortion (17%).

Governor's race - Hobbs with miniscule lead of 1 pt (negligible with error included)
In addition, the governor’s race has tightened, with Democratic candidate Katie Hobbs up over Republican Kari Lake by just 1 point. That edge transfers to Lake, however, when looking only at those who are certain they will vote (a rating of 10 on a 0-10 scale).

Hobbs tops Lake by 44-43%, down from a 3-point edge in August (47-44%).

That edge flips to Lake among the subgroup of those certain to vote: 45% Hobbs vs. 46% Lake.
 
Posting a model based on polls - Decision Desk HQ - https://forecast.decisiondeskhq.com/

Feel free to post others and please post recent polls


Senate
Our model currently predicts that Democrats have a 63.4% chance of controlling the Senate. Our mean seat projection is 50 (D) and 50 (R).

House
Our model currently predicts that Republicans have a 78.4% chance of controlling the House. Our mean seat projection is 229 (R) and 206 (D).
 
Poll on 11/2016
Hillary Clinton will win the presidency - 68%

Polls 11/2022
Democrats will control the Senate - 68%

2016 - What happens when you're smug and coast - 2022 repeat?

Danger ! Danger Will Robinson!


Comshaw
 
A
Poll on 11/2016
Hillary Clinton will win the presidency - 68%

Polls 11/2022
Democrats will control the Senate - 68%

2016 - What happens when you're smug and coast - 2022 repeat?

Danger ! Danger Will Robinson!


Comshaw
As has been mentioned before, there's only one poll that matters
 
You know MAGATS don't like facts or reality. It's hysterical
Please refrain from commentary like this for this thread. I don't mind comments regarding the polls being posted to a degree, but mostly want a collation of polls in one place for people.

Thanks.
 
Colorado
House - CD-3
Keating Research (538 rating - B/C)
Boebert up by 2
https://www.coloradopols.com/diary/180951/keating-poll-lauren-boebert-47-adam-frisch-45
In this poll, 45% of likely voters said they would vote for Frisch and 47% said they’d vote for Boebert. In a similar poll from July, also conducted by Keating Research, Frisch was 7-points behind Boebert, with 49% supporting Boebert and 42% for Frisch
Direct link to report - PDF - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1GDOVyE2dK3lSweNRGiLA00kVXLwaXfcI/
 
Nationwide
Generic Poll
Morning Consult (538- B)
https://morningconsult.com/2022-midterm-elections-tracker/

Democrats lead by 5pts (graph shows historical data on poll)
Democrats Increase Generic Ballot Lead: Congressional Democrats lead their Republican counterparts by 5 percentage points on the generic ballot (49% to 44%), with another 7% of likely voters undecided five weeks from Election Day. The past week has brought Democrats their widest lead on this metric since tracking of likely voters began in August.

Important Issues - Economy leads by 20pts+ over any other
The economy is obviously the electorate’s most important issue this year, but that is followed by several issues with mixed implications. Roughly half of voters say gun violence and abortion are “very” important when considering their vote this year, two issues that could likely benefit the Democratic Party, while a similar share elevates immigration, where voters favor the GOP.
 
Utah- Jan 2022
Planned Parenthood
https://www.plannedparenthood.org/planned-parenthood-utah/polling#:~:text=A majority (52%) of,would vote to uphold Roe.

Abortion - majority want abortion to be legal
55% of Utahns think abortion should be legal in all or most cases.

Sex Education - majority want expanded
62% of Utahns would prefer to see Utah’s sex education curriculum provide young people with more information. This is especially important to residents under 34 years old, with 77% supporting an expanded sex education curriculum.
 
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