Just the Polls

[jaF0]

Seeing this bloothirsty piece of Stitt get the boot would be a nice touch.

Democrat Takes Lead in Oklahoma Governor Race With Unexpected Voters: Poll​

Joy Hofmeister, who switched from the Republican Party to challenge Governor Kevin Still, has a higher favorability rating than he does.

 

[jaF0]

Democrats Edge Over Republicans With Latinos Lowest Since 1994, Poll Shows​

The poll showed that the 21-point margin would be the closest Republicans have come with Latinos since 1994, and nearly half the 40-point advantage Democrats enjoyed during their blue wave year of 2018.

 

[jaF0]

I do not trust polls .....

Dems Could Flip Enough Governorships to Tie GOP for First Split in 55 Years​

The odds are increasing that Republicans will have a net loss of seats in the midterm governor races: 'This is where we thought we'd be."

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

CBS Nevada poll. Is anything missing from the issues that voters say are very important?

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nevada-senate-poll-cortez-masto-laxalt/

 

[ll74]

It seems some folks have difficulty refraining from their commentary and just objectively providing the polls.

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

NATIONAL: BIDEN NOT PAYING ENOUGH ATTENTION TO MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES
GOP maintains edge in contest to lead Congress

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_us_102022.pdf/

 

[ll74]

Arizona - Oct 20/21
Co/efficient (538 - B/C rating)
https://coefficient.org/arizonastatewide/

Senate - Kelly by 2%
Kelly
47%
Masters
45%
Victor
4%

There are some favorability ratings as well.

Biden
Fav 35%
Unfav 53%
Unsure 11%

Kelly
Fav 46%
Unfav 46%
Unsure 7%

Hobbs
Fav 39%
Uncav 48%
Unsure 12%

Masters
Fav49%
Unfav37%
Unsure 13%

More at the link....

 

[ll74]

Ohio - Oct 18-22
Cygnal - (538 Rating- B+ )
https://www.cygn.al/cygnal-momentum-tracking-poll-ohio-statewide-10-23-22/

Senate - Vance by 4 - Vance voters "more enthusiastic"
Vance - 47%
Ryan - 43%

Democrats have very slightly tightened the generic and named ballots but continue to suffer from an enthusiasm problem, as Republicans have strong negative feelings towards President Biden and the direction of the country and are ready to vote.

Governor - Dewine overwhelmingly leading
Dewine - 55%
Whaley - 37%

 

[ll74]

Here's another forecasting site.

Elections Daily

I'm not as familiar with their background as I'd like to be, but they look to be up to date and objective at first glance. Feel free to utilize or discard as you wish.

 

[ll74]

Arizona - Oct 14-18
Susquehanna Polling and Research, Inc (538 Rating - NA)
https://www.scribd.com/document/602578830/Toplines-AZStatewide-Oct2022

Governor
Hobbs (D) 48%
Lake (R) 47%
Lutes-Burton (W) 1%

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

Arizona Senate Shifts Back From Lean Democrat To Toss Up​

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/arizona-senate/arizona-senate-shifts-back-toss

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

New Hampshire Senate race tied @ 45-45
https://nhjournal.com/kuster-trailing-in-new-nhjournal-poll-with-hassan-tied-and-leavitt-close/

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

New poll in Washington State Senate race. Incumbent Patty Murray (D) 49%, challenger Tiffany Smiley (R) 48%.

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/WA-General-Poll-Report-1029.pdf

 

[ll74]

Senate - Battleground States - Most recent verified polls per 538

Ohio - Ryan by 2-5 (Center Street PAC) or Vance by 5(Cygnal)
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/ohio/
Vance 40-42% or 48%
Ryan 42-47% - 43%

Nevada - Laxalt by 2 or even (Echelon Insights)
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/nevada/
Cortez Masto 46%
Laxalt 48%

Georgia - Walker by 3 (Insider Advantage and co/efficient)
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/georgia/
Wormack - 45/44%
Walker - 48/47%

Arizona - Kelly by two (Insider Advantage and co/efficient)
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/arizona/
Kelly - 45/47%
Masters - 43/45%

Pennsylvania - Oz by 3 or 2 (Wick and co/efficient)
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/pennsylvania/
Oz - 48%
Fetterman - 46/45%

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

Throwback poll

https://twitter.com/x/status/1344588336288190464

 

[ll74]

Decision desk HQ Forecasting

Senate
https://forecast.decisiondeskhq.com/senate
Our model currently predicts that Republicans have a 50.8% chance of controlling the Senate. Our mean seat projection is 51 (R) and 49 (D).

House
https://forecast.decisiondeskhq.com/house
Our model currently predicts that Republicans have a 79.5% chance of controlling the House. Our mean seat projection is 231 (R) and 204 (D).

 

[ll74]

Early Voting Statistics
https://rpubs.com/ElectProject/early_vote_2022
Sorry about the formatting

Total Early Votes: 26,032,658 •
In-Person Early Votes: 10,783,994 •
Mail Ballots Returned: 15,248,664 •
Mail Ballots Requested: 56,611,066

[TR]
[TH]Party[/TH]
[TH]Count[/TH]
[TH]Percent[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Democrat[/TD]
[TD]6,075,270[/TD]
[TD]44.8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Republican[/TD]
[TD]4,499,786[/TD]
[TD]33.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]None/Minor[/TD]
[TD]3,000,397[/TD]
[TD]22.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]TOTAL[/TD]
[TD]13,575,453[/TD]
[TD]100.0[/TD]
[/TR]

 

[ll74]

https://www.propublica.org/article/senate-report-covid-19-origin-wuhan-lab

That's not a poll, dipshit

 

[jaF0]

Johnson holds 2-point edge over Barnes in Wisconsin Senate race: poll​

https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/ip3/thehill.com.icoThe Hill|18 minutes ago
Sen. Ron Johnson (R) is leading Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes by 2 percentage points in Wisconsin's Senate race, according to a new poll from Marquette Law School.

 

[ll74]

FiveThirtyEight Forecasts

Senate - Dead Heat -
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/

House - Republicans favored to win
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/house/

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

The Twitter thread will take you to the source of the poll. Sharing the tweet to draw your attention to this specific question. DeSantis, aka DeSanctimonious, leads Trump 52 to 36 in a hypothetical primary matchup in Georgia.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1588196547950419973

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

NBC poll question for Republicans: Do you consider yourself to be more of a supporter of Donald Trump or more of a supporter of the Republican Party? Result: Trump 30% GOP 62%. Lowest-ever Trump number; highest-ever GOP number.

https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/23272032/220806-nbc-november-poll-v2.pdf

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

USA Today (headline)

Trump in trouble: Republican support for his 2024 bid falls amid political, legal setbacks​

By double digits, GOP voters prefer DeSantis as the 2024 presidential nominee​

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...-gop-2024-presidential-race-poll/10882346002/

 

[Dribble]

Technically...this isn't a poll...but it does provide demographic data

https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/26/politics/midterm-election-2022-historically-close/index.html

Why am I so hard on my fellow Democrats? Stuff like this. Seriously...why is it even close? Why are we failing so miserably to get a message out there that resonates with the people? My view? The Democratic policy is old and broken. It may have worked 20 years ago....maybe...but not today. We isolate the youth ...the future...saying shit but never coming through. We are not proactive.

We have no chance of winning in 24 if we don't change today.

 

[ll74]

Technically...this isn't a poll...but it does provide demographic data

https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/26/politics/midterm-election-2022-historically-close/index.html

Why am I so hard on my fellow Democrats? Stuff like this. Seriously...why is it even close? Why are we failing so miserably to get a message out there that resonates with the people? My view? The Democratic policy is old and broken. It may have worked 20 years ago....maybe...but not today. We isolate the youth ...the future...saying shit but never coming through. We are not proactive.

We have no chance of winning in 24 if we don't change today.

Fits within the purpose of the thread. Thanks for sharing