COVID-19 by the Numbers/Facts

[Conager]

Where is the fear mongering>?

Facts should not be feared. They should be used for what they are, the correct information pertaining to a subject.

I would think you as a lawyer would know that?

Infection ratio;

US 98.1%
Cnd 97.4%
China 7.4% ( if you believe the numbers they are releasing)
SKorea 69.2%
Italy 79.7%

98% of the US is not infected. You need to knock off the whole self-appointed expert nonsense. You can't seem to do basic math or understand anything that you're reading. You're coming across as dumb as Frodo does on so-called climate change.

 

[Fuzzy1975]

98% of the US is not infected. You need to knock off the whole self-appointed expert nonsense. You can't seem to do basic math or understand anything that you're reading. You're coming across as dumb as Frodo does on so-called climate change.

Here is the link, go read for yourself, that is not the infection rate of the US as a percentage of population, or any other country, it is "The rate of infection percentage" boy your reading comprehension needs some work...

https://covid19info.live/

 

[icanhelp1]

Where is the fear mongering>?

Facts should not be feared. They should be used for what they are, the correct information pertaining to a subject.

I would think you as a lawyer would know that?

Infection ratio;

US 98.1%
Cnd 97.4%
China 7.4% ( if you believe the numbers they are releasing)
SKorea 69.2%
Italy 79.7%

ra·tio
/ˈrāSHēˌō/
Learn to pronounce
noun
the quantitative relation between two amounts showing the number of times one value contains or is contained within the other.
"the ratio of men's jobs to women's is 8 to 1"

 

[Fuzzy1975]

ra·tio
/ˈrāSHēˌō/
Learn to pronounce
noun
the quantitative relation between two amounts showing the number of times one value contains or is contained within the other.
"the ratio of men's jobs to women's is 8 to 1"

Since I deal in numbers, the description makes sense to me, sorry if you can't figure it out.

 

[Bas_van_Fraassen]

98% of the US is not infected. You need to knock off the whole self-appointed expert nonsense. You can't seem to do basic math or understand anything that you're reading. You're coming across as dumb as Frodo does on so-called climate change.

Queef Quavin strikes again!

 

[icanhelp1]

Since I deal in numbers, the description makes sense to me, sorry if you can't figure it out.

That's why they call it FUZZY math!

 

[Fuzzy1975]

That's why they call it FUZZY math!

No it is actually called Fuzzy Logic, a bit similar to Boolean Algebra ... but I see that mathematics was not your field of study.

The ratio is the percentage of change in the infection rate per day, but I guess even with that explanation you will be stuck. So whats the square root of -1?

 

[icanhelp1]

No it is actually called Fuzzy Logic, a bit similar to Boolean Algebra ... but I see that mathematics was not your field of study.

The ratio is the percentage of change in the infection rate per day, but I guess even with that explanation you will be stuck. So whats the square root of -1?

Post #182 U.S. mortality rate= 291

post #190 U.S. mortality rate= 245

Must be the Lazarus effect!


i

 

[bigsly]

Northern Italy & Wuhan: Partners for Better or Worse
https://www.rebellionresearch.com/blog/northern-italy-wuhan-partners-for-better-or-worse

 

[Conager]

Here is the link, go read for yourself, that is not the infection rate of the US as a percentage of population, or any other country, it is "The rate of infection percentage" boy your reading comprehension needs some work...

https://covid19info.live/

Not a thing wrong with my reading comprehension. Reading comprehension is not the process of guessing words that the other person didn't write and correctly comprehending the words the other person did not write in support whatever point it is they are trying to make.

What an absolutely stupid mathematical point you're making now that you've actually fleshed it out to the point that anyone can comprehend it. The rate of increase when there are vast numbers of unknowns is meaningless and the difference between for example the US in Canadian rate is marginal at best and clearly within the margin of any reasonable error built into your calculations.

No one has any idea how many people are infected. What you're counting is the rate of reported infections. US has ramped-up testing; it's expected that the number of detected cases will increase because you tested for it.

I gather you've never heard of Schrödinger's cat .

 

[Bas_van_Fraassen]

Not a thing wrong with my reading comprehension. Reading comprehension is not the process of guessing words that the other person didn't write and correctly comprehending the words the other person did not write in support whatever point it is they are trying to make.

What an absolutely stupid mathematical point you're making now that you've actually fleshed it out to the point that anyone can comprehend it. The rate of increase when there are vast numbers of unknowns is meaningless and the difference between for example the US in Canadian rate is marginal at best and clearly within the margin of any reasonable error built into your calculations.

No one has any idea how many people are infected. What you're counting is the rate of reported infections. US has ramped-up testing; it's expected that the number of detected cases will increase because you tested for it.

I gather you've never heard of Schroeder's cat.

Lol @ Schroeder's cat.

 

[badbabysitter]

What an absolutely stupid mathematical point you're making now that you've actually fleshed it out to the point that anyone can comprehend it. The rate of increase when there are vast numbers of unknowns is meaningless and the difference between for example the US in Canadian rate is marginal at best and clearly within the margin of any reasonable error built into your calculations.

USA 24, 218

Canada 1,328

Canada has 1/10th the US' population, according to you nearly 50% is " marginal"



and leave Ricky Schroeders cat alone

 

[Sean]

I gather you've never heard of Schroeder's cat.

Oh my dear fucking lord.

 

[icanhelp1]

USA 24, 218

Canada 1,328

Canada has 1/10th the US' population, according to you nearly 50% is " marginal"



and leave Ricky Schroeders cat alone

That's what you got out of that?

 

[badbabysitter]

That's what you got out of that?

that I dont think 50% is marginal, or reasonable error

 

[Conager]

98.1% vs 97.4% is a difference of 50%?

That sounds like some Mara Gay level math.

 

[silver gurl]

Update: numbers aren't decreasing. They are increasing.

 

[badbabysitter]

98.1% vs 97.4% is a difference of 50%?

That sounds like some Mara Gay level math.

and you're bitching about reading comprehension?

stick with what you know racist rants and how millions of mexicans voted

 

[Conager]

and you're bitching about reading comprehension?

stick with what you know racist rants and how millions of mexicans voted

Learn to read, I was responding to Fuzzy accusing me of comprehension issues. Comprende?

I still maintain that in the conversation you butted into, the difference between 98.1% and 97.4 % is in fact, "marginal," especially since those figures only relate to known cases. Unknown cases before the purported size of the increase and the number of currently unknown cases would skew those numbers significantly. Current estimates are that there are about 9 in fractions for everyone infection that is known. There is considered to be 10 times the infection rate that we have been able to identify. I would call a 90% uncertainty rate to one's data significant

Which way do you think millions of a Mexicans voted? I'm thinking that they didn't vote for the anti illegal immigrant candidate, but if your view is otherwise, please elaborate.

 

[Conager]

Update: numbers aren't decreasing. They are increasing.

The question is it's not whether the number of infections and deaths and so on are increasing (we're expecting that to happen) the question is whether are rate of detection is increasing faster, slower, or at about the same rate that the virus is moving through the population.

If you could test every single person overnight which would be kind of helpful the rate of reported infection would skyrocket overnight because there's lots of people that have it that don't know they have it or are in the early stages. It would taper the next day because you've already identified everyone with it. Night of the skyrocketing increase due to the hypothetical overnight testing of everyone nor the drop off the next day would be meaningful. Those would be expected.

 

[sygn]

Has anyone seen a theory as to why the death rate in Italy is so awful? It's now 9% of all victims. Is it simply a matter of people dying from the inability of an overwhelmed system to give patients adequate treatment?

Three suggestions:
1. Italians tend to live in city centre apartments, often in older buildings crowded together.
2. Several generations living in a single home is normal. The older relations are very vulnerable to anything their children and grandchildren catch.
3. The age distribution of Italians is for a much higher proportion of the over-70s compared to most other European countries and the US.
They are theories only but seem rational.

The Telegraph:
A study in JAMA this week found that almost 40 per cent of infections and 87 per cent of deaths in the country have been in patients over 70 years old. “On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity - many had two or three,” he says.

“It’s too early to make a comparison across Europe,” he says. “We do not have detailed sero-surveillance of the population and we do not know how many asymptomatic people are spreading it.”

[But there are other factors that may have contributed to Italy’s fatality rates, experts say. This includes a high rate of smoking and pollution - the majority of deaths have been in the northern region Lombardy region, which is notorious for poor air quality.

FYP.
The average age in Italy is 46. The average age admitted to the hospital (which is the bulk of known cases) is 67.
Italy has a very high rate of multi-generational households meaning all of their most susceptible were likely exposed.
Italy has hundreds of thousands of Chinese guest workers, the viral load on those exposed was high.

I think that you guys did a fantastic job in explaining all the demographic/ systemic risk factors, and covered 80% of the problem.

But what I personally want to learn more about, is the genetic analysis part.
Unlike influenza (see Trump’s comparison) which has been around for ages thus it’s mutation patterns are more or less understood, this is a new virus. And it’s not your typical coronavirus either, Nankai University researchers found mutated genes that did not exist in Sars, but were similar to those in HIV and Ebola.






==================================
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I still can't get my head around these, could someone please explain?

So the virus has been mutating as they all do, but scientists can't seem to agree fully on it' significance.

As far as the China outbreak is concerned,
Chinese scientists from 4 universities in four cities claim that there were two strains S(the initial one) and L, a more aggressive one derived from S.
L was quite prevalent (70%) before the strict lockdown but decreased remarkably by the end of february, in places like Wuhan where lockdown was imposed.
So applause from them to the government for doing such a great job.

But then prof. Paul Young from the Institute for Bioengineering and Nanotechnology says that those population genetic analyses involved too few patients to be relevant. And that those scientists misinterpreted the findings too.

re the European outbreak:
Spanish scientists saying that the one in Italy/Spain is also a mutated, thus different strain from China.
And then they add “But this is normal: almost all the viruses that have been sequenced so far have some differences with the first one.” All RNA viruses mutate.

That’s not the reassurance I’m looking for. I want them to speculate on whether they think the new strain is more, less or just as aggressive as the L/S strains.
But nada.
How can you not fill that empty space with paranoia, when people in Spain/Italy are falling like flies?
Yes, those over the age of 65 had a huge mortality rate, but half of the ICU admissions in Lombardia were younger.

The Telegraph:

In very crude terms, this means that around eight per cent of confirmed coronavirus patients have died in Italy, compared to four per cent in China. By this measure Germany, which has so far identified 13,000 cases and 42 deaths, has a fatality rate of just 0.3 per cent.

^^
The only glimmer of hope for me is this, given that an obscure newssite claimed that the Germany/Italian strain are almost identical genetically.

 

[LupusDei]

Here in Latvia we have made 4446 tests and registered 124 covid-19 cases so far. No linked deaths, so far. Overwhelming majority of cases are returning travelers (from just over two million of "ours," about 200,000 are working/studying/wandering abroad and that's just those falling under the blanket repatriation help announced), local spreading is believed to be minimal, family members and alike. There's few cases the infection three can't be tracked through, including one parliament delegate (and awful clown), who appears to have walked around sick for a week, including attending government meetings.

And yeah, there's a lot of bitching about insufficient testing. Free testing is very limited, paid for at a private laboratory is asking €80 what isn't cheap for our people, especially those most at risk. About twenty of first cases registered in Estonia were all traveling through Riga airport and took public transportation from Riga to Tallinn, but at least officially haven't left any virus behind here. Yeah, hard to believe. Estonians allegedly given up on testing in their islands, there the resorts were overrun by imported infection, spreading wildly locally by unofficial sources. Might be a rumor.

So, this is expected to explode every moment, but seems not doing so, but yeah, nobody knows shit. Schools closed, yadda, yadda, the same as everywhere.

 

[SpeareChucker]

I don't know if this has been posted yet

The following article is a systematic overview of COVID-19 driven by data from medical professionals and academic articles that will help you understand what is going on (sources include CDC, WHO, NIH, NHS, University of Oxford, Stanford, Harvard, NEJM, JAMA, and several others). I’m quite experienced at understanding virality, how things grow, and data. In my vocation, I’m most known for popularizing the “growth hacking movement” in Silicon Valley that specializes in driving rapid and viral adoption of technology products. Data is data. Our focus here isn’t treatments but numbers. You don’t need a special degree to understand what the data says and doesn’t say. Numbers are universal.

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/covid-19-evidence-over-hysteria



Hat Tip: American Thinker

 

[sygn]

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/covid-19-evidence-over-hysteria
Hat Tip: American Thinker

This is an extremely convincing article, and I read many experts arguing that despite nassmedia's hysteria, the "flattening the curve" approaches are starting to work.




But there's a 'rogue' group of doctors and epidemiologists in Australia and NZ who are criticising the governments for not imposing more drastic social distancing measures. Some are even advocating temp. lockdown.

They are saying that if these two countries don't start ASAP, they prognosticate that Australia could be 3 weeks away from becoming like Italy, and NZ a few days away.

It's on all news channels, here are their open letters:






Open letter from Australian doctors to Australian federal and state governments re. coronavirus COVID19 emergency response
https://***************/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScYb_XOzPsGaRsUPOK_XacES857iti_qIrSKm6YKaC8sLpxmg/viewform

Medical Professionals to PM Ardern: 4 measures to protect NZ from COVID19
https://www.change.org/p/medical-professionals-to-pm-ardern-4-measures-to-protect-nz-from-covid19

 

[SpeareChucker]

What do they care about the economy and people's lives?
They suddenly find themselves relevant and powerful and
everyone wants to get in on the act...