An interesting read, while I don't agree with all the assumptions, still it is nice to find a comprehensive article that tries to encapsulate the whole of COVID-19 outbreak.
COVID-19 by the Numbers/Facts
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An interesting read, while I don't agree with all the assumptions, still it is nice to find a comprehensive article that tries to encapsulate the whole of COVID-19 outbreak.
Unfortunately, after each test the tester has to discard their mask, gown and gloves. That means that only on Friday, almost 10.000 gowns and 10.000 masks were discarded in NY.
On another but related topic -- I came across the argument (gosh, those NZers are pretty good - first the alert system, now this) that countries / or cities should go in total lockdown as soon as the virus is confirmed.
Covid is 3* more contagious than the flu.
https://www.geekzone.co.nz/forums.asp?forumid=161&topicid=265423&page_no=258
"Professor Michael Baker from the Wellington Campus of Otago Medical School who has spoken publicly in recent weeks about his concerns.
IMO we need to 'stamp it out' and not just flatten the curve.
-- Because flattening the curve is going down the route of herd immunity where over a very long time, a significant percentage of people get it, but it doesn't put major pressure on our health system, so it should result in less deaths.
-- Stamping it out is about actually getting rid of the virus totally, by starving it of people to infect, which allows NZ local population economy to get back to normal potentially earlier. It appears stamping it out is the only way to prevent older people not being told to 'stay at home' for months and months while he virus exists.
I am not sure exactly what China are doing to reduce their rates, but but guessing it is more of the 'stamp it out' thing."
icanhelp1
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They're accelerating clinical testing. They have the actual genetic structure of the virus in 3D model
https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/defaul...2-5348-11ea-8948-c9a8d8f9b667_972x_043105.jpg
They have had a genetic model of the virus for months...funny how you start getting informed of what the rest of knew months ago when Fox changes it news stories...
Look should I go back and pull my post up where I challenged you on the CDC's capabilities, and you claimed Canada would be coming to the CDC for help?
Here you are grasping at straws from some French study, that has not yet been duplicated....
icanhelp1
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I posted the 3d model for anyone interested. I'm not fucking posting for you. so fuck off!! We'll see about Canada, the day is still young.
I'm not grasping at anything, for anything, so once again, fuck off!
wow intelligent come back....
That will dazzle them with the facts for sure....
Chuckles
Us infected 24,738, deaths 291, new cases today 5403
Cnd 1280 infected, 18 deaths, new cases today 193
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butters
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they can be effective in treating any bacterial infections/complications that occur as a secondary effect in a weakened body
newer studies show antibiotics actually weaken our immune systems and it can take 6 months for adults to return to their normal microbiome levels.
silver gurl
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Yes azithromycin is an old school antibiotic.
Taken with Hydroxychloroquine aka as Plaquenil. Which is an old school maleria drug.
My guess, this will be the cocktail for many people.
So?
I trust the accuracy of the Canadian numbers, the ones coming from the US, I am not so confident in.
So given the death rate seems higher in Canada, I suspect that may be closer to it actually. Seems in the US the Federal Government is downplaying everything about this virus.
HisArpy
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Or the numbers are accurate and you just don't want to believe them. Because panic.
icanhelp1
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Agree! Can weaken/ But still play an important part in treatment. Harvard/ MIT has done considerable studies on antibiotics and its effects on the immune system, the effects on macrophage immune cells leaving them less effective.
icanhelp1
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Huh?
Has your reading comprehension started to slip? Seriously..
Not to mention I fail to see what point your trying to foster, though I do seem to see your own fear now creeping into your posts?
Infected in the US 25,045 deaths 245, recovered 147.
By tonight it seems the US will move up from #4 to #3 passing Spain in having the most infected residents.
Wrong Element
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Has anyone seen a theory as to why the death rate in Italy is so awful? It's now 9% of all victims. Is it simply a matter of people dying from the inability of an overwhelmed system to give patients adequate treatment?
oggbashan
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Three suggestions:
1. Italians tend to live in city centre apartments, often in older buildings crowded together.
2. Several generations living in a single home is normal. The older relations are very vulnerable to anything their children and grandchildren catch.
3. The age distribution of Italians is for a much higher proportion of the over-70s compared to most other European countries and the US.
They are theories only but seem rational.
icanhelp1
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The Telegraph:
The coronavirus pandemic is exacting a heavy toll on Italy, with hospitals overwhelmed and a nationwide lockdown imposed. But experts are also concerned about a seemingly high death rate, with the number of fatalities outstripping the total reported in China.
Of the 47,000 people confirmed coronavirus patients in Italy, 4,032 so far have died - with a record increase of 627 in the last 24 hours.
By contrast China has almost twice as many cases, 81,250, but 3,253 fatalities.
In very crude terms, this means that around eight per cent of confirmed coronavirus patients have died in Italy, compared to four per cent in China. By this measure Germany, which has so far identified 13,000 cases and 42 deaths, has a fatality rate of just 0.3 per cent.
“The age of our patients in hospitals is substantially older - the median is 67, while in China it was 46,” Prof Ricciardi says. “So essentially the age distribution of our patients is squeezed to an older age and this is substantial in increasing the lethality.”
A study in JAMA this week found that almost 40 per cent of infections and 87 per cent of deaths in the country have been in patients over 70 years old.[/COLOR]
And according to modelling the majority of this age group are likely to need critical hospital care - including 80 per cent of 80-somethings - putting immense pressure on the health system. [/COLOR
“The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus.
“On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity - many had two or three,” he says. “It’s too early to make a comparison across Europe,” he says. “We do not have detailed sero-surveillance of the population and we do not know how many asymptomatic people are spreading it.”In Germany, epidemiological surveillance is more challenging - simply because of the complexity of working in a federal state and because public health is organised very much at the local level."
But there are other factors that may have contributed to Italy’s fatality rates, experts say. This includes a high rate of smoking and pollution - the majority of deaths have been in the northern region Lombardy region, which is notorious for poor air quality.
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HisArpy
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Huh?
Has your reading comprehension started to slip? Seriously..
Not to mention I fail to see what point your trying to foster, though I do seem to see your own fear now creeping into your posts?
Infected in the US 25,045 deaths 245, recovered 147.
By tonight it seems the US will move up from #4 to #3 passing Spain in having the most infected residents.
Lol, ain't you a clever little fearmonger. I remember a time fairly recently where you were screaming that I was "out and about" and "spreading the virus". Now you're sitting on your fat ass on your comfy couch telling ME that I'm the one who's "afraid".
What a laugh.
In reality I saw some clients this morning and I have appointments to see a couple more this evening. Yeppers, I'm going "out and about" again despite that "mandatory" stay home order.
Hey, if the pizza guy isn't afraid, why the hell are you?
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oggbashan
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Note: Wuhan is called 'The Furnace City' because it gets unbearably hot in summer and also has some of China's worst polluted air. It is and has been for decades a grey smoke-stained city with a high number of people with breathing problems even before the virus.
Sean
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You're a cunt.
Conager
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FYP.
It's pointless to test people who are asymptimatic or self-recovering when you have pretty much exposed everyone in your country to the virus.
The average age in Italy is 46. The average age admitted to the hospital (which is the bulk of known cases) is 67.
Italy has a very high rate of multi-generational households meaning all of their most susceptible were likely exposed.
Italy has hundreds of thousands of Chinese guest workers, the viral load on those exposed was high.
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Where is the fear mongering>?
Facts should not be feared. They should be used for what they are, the correct information pertaining to a subject.
I would think you as a lawyer would know that?
Infection ratio;
US 98.1%
Cnd 97.4%
China 7.4% ( if you believe the numbers they are releasing)
SKorea 69.2%
Italy 79.7%
silver gurl
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Seriously. If you are told to stay home, stay home. It's not about making a statement "I am not afraid" It's about spreading.
The longer people do stupid, the numbers will increase, we will continue the need to self isolate.
The longer people do stupid, the numbers will increase, we will continue the need to self isolate.
Certainly true, but there could me more than that:
""50% of our patients in the intensive care unit (in Lombardy), which are the most severe patients, are over 65 years old," he said.
But that means that the other 50% of our patients are younger than 65."
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...-can-make-young-people-seriously-ill-11961000
Maybe the virus has mutated to more virulent forms?
Or something about their haplogroup that somehow clicks with the virus?
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