Basically everyone is angry at the GOP

[bronzeage]

Given the number of failed attempts to kill ACA, abject failure must play pretty well in their home districts. It seems like there are fewer Republicans but more ideologically driven conservatives. Maybe a party purge is what they're after. Plenty of right wingers on the GB would seem to be okay with that.

Suppose they go into to these attempts knowing they won't get ACA repealed or defunded and the "win" is forcing the confrontation in the first place? You know, like a kid will throw a tantrum to get attention or some consolation prize for not getting it all his own way to start. As long as he gets anything but ignored or isolated until he learns how to behave better, he's gonna keep on throwing tantrums. And it doesn't seem like the Representatives behind this are going to get much in the way of censure from their own party or even much voter backlash in their home districts.

At any rate, it's a bit silly to go around declaring winners and losers at this point. The electorate will do that in 13 months, during the off-year elections. Those usually don't favor the party in the White House and are often characterized by low voter turn-out.

Don't forget, the deal for temporary funding still hasn't gone through. Call me cynical, but even the best case scenario here is to be watching Federal Budgetfuck, the sequel, coming to political theater this January. At this point it might as well be a regular telenovella, except with really shitty scriptwriters and no hot latina babes.

This is a disaster for the GOP and it will take a couple of weeks for it to really sink in.

The GOP is the preacher who saved the choir and lost the church. Except for getting caught having sex in a men's room, the worst thing a Congressman can do is appear ineffective. Going back to the home district and bragging about how he shut down the government for 16 days, just to reopen it without gaining any of the goals stated at the start is the definition of ineffective.

It's easy for the GOP to forget they depend upon the middle ground voter to win elections. Even a safe gerrymandered GOP district doesn't have to send back the same Congressman.

We won't hear much about it in public, but the whisper campaign over the next 3 or 4 months will be all about, "Who screwed the pooch?"

 

[1sickbastard]

This is a disaster for the GOP and it will take a couple of weeks for it to really sink in.

The GOP is the preacher who saved the choir and lost the church. Except for getting caught having sex in a men's room, the worst thing a Congressman can do is appear ineffective. Going back to the home district and bragging about how he shut down the government for 16 days, just to reopen it without gaining any of the goals stated at the start is the definition of ineffective.

It's easy for the GOP to forget they depend upon the middle ground voter to win elections. Even a safe gerrymandered GOP district doesn't have to send back the same Congressman.

We won't hear much about it in public, but the whisper campaign over the next 3 or 4 months will be all about, "Who screwed the pooch?"

That all may very well be.
I think it's the mood of the voters about this time next year that's going to have more weight than the moods over the next six months.

 

[JackLuis]

Grover is pissed at them.

The S&P Standard & Poor's estimating the shutdown has taken $24bn out of the economy and slowed growth by 0.6%:

I say we ship Ted Cruise back to Canada.

 

[KingOrfeo]

Probably less secure in their gerrymandered districts. Many of those were formed by the "cracking" method, meaning in each the Pubs are a majority but the district is not solid-red. Anything that fires up the Dem minority and independents and moderate Pubs against the TP wing can put such a district in serious play. And this spectacle ought to do it.

See here for analysis.

In the fight over the shutdown, a residual feature of partisan gerrymandering has become unexpectedly important. Andrew Sullivan quotes Kyle Kondik at Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball:

t’s the House Republicans in marginal districts who could see their ranks decimated, just like the House Democratic moderates whose anti-Obamacare votes couldn’t save them in 2010.

An examination of the MoveOn/PPP data suggests that this burden might fall harder on some Republicans than others. Perhaps surprisingly, a major cause seems to be partisan gerrymandering.

<snip>

It is a common fallacy is to believe that seats gained by partisan gerrymandering are safe seats. In fact, the converse is the case. Gerrymandering achieves a net gain of seats by packing the opposition party into as few districts as possible.

 

[bronzeage]

That all may very well be.
I think it's the mood of the voters about this time next year that's going to have more weight than the moods over the next six months.

Yes, and the odds of the GOP getting smarter in that time would be?

Are you optimistic enough to believe they learned something from this experience?

 

[JackLuis]

We can hope that Congress will become a responsible servant of the American people.

Good Fuck'n luck with that!

 

[Ulaven_Demorte]

All the Democratic (and moderate Republican) challengers to these TeaOP Congressmen have to do is hammer this nail into their coffin.

My opponent helped cause a 16 day shutdown of the government trying to force something that he could not get otherwise, and got nothing in the bargain except an estimated $23 billion dollar loss and .6% loss in economic growth.

 

[1sickbastard]

Yes, and the odds of the GOP getting smarter in that time would be?

Are you optimistic enough to believe they learned something from this experience?

No, it's more that I'm too cynical to believe the trends/attitudes that got these folks into office in the first place are going away anytime soon. The GOP doesn't have to 'get smarter', just be smart enough to keep getting their core constituents to the polls in sufficient numbers to stay elected.

 

[bronzeage]

No, it's more that I'm too cynical to believe the trends/attitudes that got these folks into office in the first place are going away anytime soon. The GOP doesn't have to 'get smarter', just be smart enough to keep getting their core constituents to the polls in sufficient numbers to stay elected.

The GOP better get smarter. Their support among middle ground voters is very fragile. Tea Partiers maybe able to control the party, but they can't win elections without the middle.

Ask Newt Gingrich how this plays out.

 

[FistedSister]

This is a disaster for the GOP and it will take a couple of weeks for it to really sink in.

The GOP is the preacher who saved the choir and lost the church. Except for getting caught having sex in a men's room, the worst thing a Congressman can do is appear ineffective. Going back to the home district and bragging about how he shut down the government for 16 days, just to reopen it without gaining any of the goals stated at the start is the definition of ineffective.

It's easy for the GOP to forget they depend upon the middle ground voter to win elections. Even a safe gerrymandered GOP district doesn't have to send back the same Congressman.

We won't hear much about it in public, but the whisper campaign over the next 3 or 4 months will be all about, "Who screwed the pooch?"

Thanks.

 

[1sickbastard]

The GOP better get smarter. Their support among middle ground voters is very fragile. Tea Partiers maybe able to control the party, but they can't win elections without the middle.

Ask Newt Gingrich how this plays out.

GOP "getting smarter" = shunned for heresy (Damn RINO's!). Maybe the ideologues on the right need to just purge the party of anything but their own before the GOP sees any substantial changes.

I mean, jeez, look at what happened after the debt ceiling debacle last year. The GOP didn't unseat Obama and lost control of the House of Representatives to boot.
First it was Mitt's fault, because he wasn't 'conservative' enough, then it was the nation's fault for being a bunch of godless, degenerate, freeloading commie faggots, then it was because the GOP had a problems articulating it's message, yaddayaddayadda. The few who did speak out and say the party needed to get smarter, or do things differently, they seemed to get sidelined pretty quick.

 

[richard_daily]

Grover is pissed at them.

The S&P Standard & Poor's estimating the shutdown has taken $24bn out of the economy and slowed growth by 0.6%:

I say we ship Ted Cruise back to Canada.

Grover's quickly becoming irrelevant. Kind of like the Republican party is.

 

[dan_c00000]

The GOP better get smarter. Their support among middle ground voters is very fragile. Tea Partiers maybe able to control the party, but they can't win elections without the middle.

Ask Newt Gingrich how this plays out.

The shame of it is there's enough gerrymandering that a group of 80 clowns can wreck havoc on the government.

 

[CaptainKirk]

So... when you boil it down, it basically comes out as this:

The Republicans got nothing out of this, except another piece of their credibility chopped away. The Democrats got nothing out of this, expect moving the ACA forward which it was already doing, and we're... right back at 'square one'.

Except for the fact that over two weeks worth of work was not done, the loss of revenue, wages, etc. which totals 20-odd billion dollars, and over half a percent of the country's economic growth went straight into the toilet and went swirling.

Is this a correct evaluation?



Your tax dollars at work, ladies and gentlemen.

 

[JohnnySavage]

All the Democratic (and moderate Republican) challengers to these TeaOP Congressmen have to do is hammer this nail into their coffin.

My opponent helped cause a 16 day shutdown of the government trying to force something that he could not get otherwise, and got nothing in the bargain except an estimated $23 billion dollar loss and .6% loss in economic growth.

But the extremists in the Republican party are safe because of gerrymandering. Those extremists will be re-elected, but the more reasonable Republicans are dead in the water and will be replaced by Democrats, which means the extremists will be around to kill the economy for some time to come.

 

[Recidiva]

So... when you boil it down, it basically comes out as this:

The Republicans got nothing out of this, except another piece of their credibility chopped away. The Democrats got nothing out of this, expect moving the ACA forward which it was already doing, and we're... right back at 'square one'.

Except for the fact that over two weeks worth of work was not done, the loss of revenue, wages, etc. which totals 20-odd billion dollars, and over half a percent of the country's economic growth went straight into the toilet and went swirling.

Is this a correct evaluation?



Your tax dollars at work, ladies and gentlemen.

I am hoping that it will result in a "learned lesson" about obstruction politics as policy.

Not counting on it, mind, but hoping.

 

[landslider2000]

It wasn't a "shutdown" -- merely a slowdown.

Nobody kicked anything, and different visions about the role of federal governance remain.

Liberals have overweening faith in federal bureaucracy; conservatives have more faith in individuals allowed to make their own decisions.

Tomorrow in politics will creep at its petty pace.

 

[richard_daily]

It wasn't a "shutdown" -- merely a slowdown.

Nobody kicked anything, and different visions about the role of federal governance remain.

Liberals have overweening faith in federal bureaucracy; conservatives have more faith in individuals allowed to make their own decisions.

Tomorrow in politics will creep at its petty pace.

"Conservatives" are kowtowing the corporate line... They are fully owned by the companies who buy them. They don't give a shit about "individuals" and the fact that you think they do, just shows how ignorant you really are.

 

[landslider2000]

It is a common mistake to assume people are "ignorant" if they voice an opinion at variance with one's own opinion.

But that's just vanity -- the assumption that one's own opinions are tantamount to truth or wisdom.

 

[julybaby04]

Soooo......

The liberals believe they are on top of the world today, thinking they have won and the conservatives have lost.

So be it. Let all the conservative hold true to their values, but play the liberal game.

1. Add the conservatives to the welfare roll.

2. Quit jobs and demand free healthcare from Obamacare

3. Sign up for the EBT

4. In case #2 is NOT actually free, then just punt that system and take the illness straight to the ER.

I think, perhaps, what the liberals do not quite understand, is that eventually, conservatives will get tired of fighting liberals and the man/child potus. The values will never change, however, there will no longer be a desire to fight.

So, the liberals will get all they want....this utopia they are striving so hard for. The problem will be that there will be no one (or at least 50% less) to actually fund it. So good luck with the liberal idea of America.....it will be fun watching!

 

[phrodeau]

Soooo......

The liberals believe they are on top of the world today, thinking they have won and the conservatives have lost.

So be it. Let all the conservative hold true to their values, but play the liberal game.

1. Add the conservatives to the welfare roll.

2. Quit jobs and demand free healthcare from Obamacare

3. Sign up for the EBT

4. In case #2 is NOT actually free, then just punt that system and take the illness straight to the ER.

I think, perhaps, what the liberals do not quite understand, is that eventually, conservatives will get tired of fighting liberals and the man/child potus. The values will never change, however, there will no longer be a desire to fight.

So, the liberals will get all they want....this utopia they are striving so hard for. The problem will be that there will be no one (or at least 50% less) to actually fund it. So good luck with the liberal idea of America.....it will be fun watching!

Go ahead and quit your job. Someone else will take up the slack. Probably do it better than you could, too.

 

[RobDownSouth]

Soooo......
The liberals believe they are on top of the world today, thinking they have won and the conservatives have lost.
So be it. Let all the conservative hold true to their values, but play the liberal game.
1. Add the conservatives to the welfare roll.
2. Quit jobs and demand free healthcare from Obamacare
3. Sign up for the EBT
4. In case #2 is NOT actually free, then just punt that system and take the illness straight to the ER.
I think, perhaps, what the liberals do not quite understand, is that eventually, conservatives will get tired of fighting liberals and the man/child potus. The values will never change, however, there will no longer be a desire to fight.
So, the liberals will get all they want....this utopia they are striving so hard for. The problem will be that there will be no one (or at least 50% less) to actually fund it. So good luck with the liberal idea of America.....it will be fun watching!

America Won.
You Lost.
You got NOTHING.
The age of "Tyranny of the Minority" is over.
Get Over It.

Don't like it?
Organize your friend, your co-workers, the folks in your "church".
Get them to vote like you do.
See if you can get a majority of Americans to agree with your toxic "us vs. them" policies.
I'm betting you can't.

 

[RobDownSouth]

I am hoping that it will result in a "learned lesson" about obstruction politics as policy.

Not counting on it, mind, but hoping.

Exactly!!

 

[RobDownSouth]

Hey Landslider2000!

The Senate approved the clean CR by a 4:1 margin.
The House approved the clean CR by a 2:1 margin.

To me, that's pretty damned indicative of the "will of the people".

Wouldn't you agree?

 

[julybaby04]

America Won.
You Lost.
You got NOTHING.
The age of "Tyranny of the Minority" is over.
Get Over It.

Don't like it?
Organize your friend, your co-workers, the folks in your "church".
Get them to vote like you do.
See if you can get a majority of Americans to agree with your toxic "us vs. them" policies.
I'm betting you can't.

MY "us vs them".....

Oh yes, I can see by your posts how "all inclusive you are"....

Hypocrite much???