XI.

[iso36]

The last paragraph of Ill’s “proof” … proves Chomham’s point:

“China is learning to build the world's finest propeller engine, just as its competitors enter the jet age. Admire the effort, but don't cash in your chips just yet.”

 

[ll74]

The last paragraph of Ill’s “proof” … proves Chomham’s point:

“China is learning to build the world's finest propeller engine, just as its competitors enter the jet age. Admire the effort, but don't cash in your chips just yet.”

Since his information is outdated, his proof is a bit off

 

[iso36]

Since his information is outdated, his proof is a bit off

You are usually wrong; watching how much energy you put into running from the truth is always good for a laff!

 

[icanhelp1]

Not so much their manufacturing, that's always been labor intensive. It will devastate their military though. Their chip technology is stuck at the "internet of things" level. 28nm technology. Great for refrigerators but definitely sucks when it comes to the technology required for the avionics of a 5th generation fighter. They can build the air frame but they end up with a highly maneuverable, blind, target.

As a contrast, Russia is going through a demographic collapse as well. The big difference is that Russia has the agriculture needed to feed it's people and it certainly has the raw materials. Which is to say that Russia has a financial future without globalization and can survive sanctions, China can't.

Put one carrier battle group at the Indian Ocean side of the straits of Malacca and within 90 days the trucks stop rolling in China, within 6 months the lights go out, and a year later 500 million Chinese are dead from starvation. The Chinese aren't stupid, they know this as well as we do and that drives them nuts as well.

What's their plan Stan? Invade Kazakhstan? North Korea? Maybe Vietnam? How would any of that solve their supply side and resource problems? They could go after Eastern Siberia but Putin has already told them, "We aren't going to fight you on the ground. We're going to nuke you."

Manufacturing as in manufacturing their own AI technologies and semi conductors.

 

[ll74]

You are usually wrong; watching how much energy you put into running from the truth is always good for a laff!

You don't have to believe me. That's why I provided my source.

As someone who believes bullshit, I can see why you don't get that.

 

[icanhelp1]

Not so much their manufacturing, that's always been labor intensive. It will devastate their military though. Their chip technology is stuck at the "internet of things" level. 28nm technology. Great for refrigerators but definitely sucks when it comes to the technology required for the avionics of a 5th generation fighter. They can build the air frame but they end up with a highly maneuverable, blind, target.

As a contrast, Russia is going through a demographic collapse as well. The big difference is that Russia has the agriculture needed to feed it's people and it certainly has the raw materials. Which is to say that Russia has a financial future without globalization and can survive sanctions, China can't.

Put one carrier battle group at the Indian Ocean side of the straits of Malacca and within 90 days the trucks stop rolling in China, within 6 months the lights go out, and a year later 500 million Chinese are dead from starvation. The Chinese aren't stupid, they know this as well as we do and that drives them nuts as well.

What's their plan Stan? Invade Kazakhstan? North Korea? Maybe Vietnam? How would any of that solve their supply side and resource problems? They could go after Eastern Siberia but Putin has already told them, "We aren't going to fight you on the ground. We're going to nuke you."

Manufacturing as in manufacturing their own AI technologies and semi conductors.

Other than a Taiwan invasion I don't believe China has any designs on a protracted land war with any of its neighbours. Russia for sure, India would be too costly for both sides. N Korea, they have nothing worth fighting for, N K is an actual buffer between westernized S Korea and their own country. China is really good at subversive covert operations, spying and stealing intellectual property. They do have a problem feeding their people and depend on foreign trade for sustenance. China's main threat to the US is self inflicted, much about allowing our dependency on the pharmaceutical and other critical industries to metastasize. Our biggest threat from China is within our own borders and that's corporate greed, companies allowing themselves to be raped of their intellectual properties for the sake of the almighty dollar. IMHO Your opinion is not outdated.

Although China's navy is not the super power navy people tout it to be, they have a lot of ships most small corvette types, they don't don't have the ability or experience to project sustainable power but could defend their territorial waters.

 

[icanhelp1]

That old dude was the former President of China who opened up China to the West, encouraged more democratic freedom (well not much but revolutionary by Chinese standards) and was all for liberalization of the economy.

Someone is sending a message that his era is over.

Xi sure looks like he’s consolidating his power.

 

[Chobham]

Manufacturing as in manufacturing their own AI technologies and semi conductors.

Other than a Taiwan invasion I don't believe China has any designs on a protracted land war with any of its neighbours. Russia for sure, India would be too costly for both sides. N Korea, they have nothing worth fighting for, N K is an actual buffer between westernized S Korea and their own country. China is really good at subversive covert operations, spying and stealing intellectual property. They do have a problem feeding their people and depend on foreign trade for sustenance. China's main threat to the US is self inflicted, much about allowing our dependency on the pharmaceutical and other critical industries to metastasize. Our biggest threat from China is within our own borders and that's corporate greed, companies allowing themselves to be raped of their intellectual properties for the sake of the almighty dollar. IMHO Your opinion is not outdated.

Although China's navy is not the super power navy people tout it to be, they have a lot of ships most small corvette types, they don't don't have the ability or experience to project sustainable power but could defend their territorial waters.

Understood. They're still damn near 20 years behind. They don't have the tools to build the tools they need to build the chips required and what access they did have has been cut off.

Re. the 7nm chip. I'm well aware of China's plagiarizing of TSMC's dead end technology. TSMC abandoned that path virtually as soon as they demonstrated it. The problem with that technology is that it's prohibitively expensive to replicate across multiple chip designs AND get a yield that would be competitive in the market place. They could potentially pursue that technology for their own internal use but they'd still be years behind and left with no path forward.

 

[oggbashan]

Xi sure looks like he’s consolidating his power.

He has. He has just been elected for a third term. No one since Mao has done that.

 

[Chobham]

He has. He has just been elected for a third term. No one since Mao has done that.

The fallout is just as telling. Two of the most vocal proponents for the liberalization of industry and private property have been purged from the central committee thus signaling a deepening commitment to Xi's policy of "Marxism Chinese style."

 

[John_von_Neumann]

Understood. They're still damn near 20 years behind. They don't have the tools to build the tools they need to build the chips required and what access they did have has been cut off.

Re. the 7nm chip. I'm well aware of China's plagiarizing of TSMC's dead end technology. TSMC abandoned that path virtually as soon as they demonstrated it. The problem with that technology is that it's prohibitively expensive to replicate across multiple chip designs AND get a yield that would be competitive in the market place. They could potentially pursue that technology for their own internal use but they'd still be years behind and left with no path forward.

Uh huh. Now tell us your excuse for SMIC's 14nm chip technology.

 

[Chobham]

On Sunday Xi won his third term. On Monday the markets reacted by tanking Chinese stocks wherever listed.

 

[Chobham]

China is already rationing electricity and encouraging the people to stock up on food in anticipation of shortages in that sector as well. As the economy collapses the leadership is increasingly liable to turn to the one thing they can unite the people around, invading Taiwan. China will lose that if they try (even if they are successful in taking Taiwan, they still lose). But it will keep Xi and his cronies in power a little longer.

 

[JohnEBbad]

I still think that despite what you say, that Ukraine will give them pause, they are desperate but not stupid.

Now, getting Lil' Kim to begin an engagement that they can take part in from the balcony,
that might be more of a win-win for them domestically...

 

[Chobham]

I still think that despite what you say, that Ukraine will give them pause, they are desperate but not stupid.

Now, getting Lil' Kim to begin an engagement that they can take part in from the balcony,
that might be more of a win-win for them domestically...

It's all about how desperate they get. Right now I give it a 30-40% chance.

 

[JohnEBbad]

China has never been good at "Navy."

The one time they attempted it, they burned it when it returned to port.
Anything they put in the water will be a sitting duck.

They know that (we know that).

 

[ll74]

China is already rationing electricity and encouraging the people to stock up on food in anticipation of shortages in that sector as well. As the economy collapses the leadership is increasingly liable to turn to the one thing they can unite the people around, invading Taiwan. China will lose that if they try (even if they are successful in taking Taiwan, they still lose). But it will keep Xi and his cronies in power a little longer.

Yes, China is experiencing high inflation, just like the rest of the world.

Your predictions of his demise are premature.

 

[exgovie]

Yes, China is experiencing high inflation, just like the rest of the world.

Your predictions of his demise are premature.

 

[Chobham]

Yes, China is experiencing high inflation, just like the rest of the world.

Your predictions of his demise are premature.

And you don't have a clue as to what's happening in China. They're toast.

 

[ll74]

And you don't have a clue as to what's happening in China. They're toast.

I know what's happening in China. I also know historically what they've done and continue to be doing.....if they played by the rules, they might be toast.....they've never done so.

 

[Chobham]

I know what's happening in China. I also know historically what they've done and continue to be doing.....if they played by the rules, they might be toast.....they've never done so.

No, you don't know.

China's problems are all internal. Yes, the various sanctions aren't helping but their injuries are basically self-inflicted. You can cheat as much as you want but if you continue with the same policies you get the same outcome.

China will remain China but not necessarily under the leadership of the CCP. There's a reason for their outrageous internal security apparatus and heavy handed surveillance of their population. They are fearful of their own people and that's where their danger lies. All of the other issues merely feed into that basic problem.

Their energy and food problems are NOT a result of inflation, they are a result of very real shortages. Shortage of coal/oil/gas and a shortage of food. Shortages do drive the prices up but it doesn't matter to the people how much something costs when the lights are out and there's nothing to eat. That is a prescription for regime change. This is particularly acute when you consider that China had for two decades liberalized the economy and is now in the process of shutting that down.

Their rapid rise in labor costs without a commiserate increase in productivity is NOT helping them in attracting new investment and is contributing to the flight of foreign capital and the current manufacturing concerns.

Getting back to the "cheating." There is only so much they can get away with. They can't change the basic rules of business to suit their internal political agenda. They have to pay for the energy, food, and raw materials they import. If they don't they just won't get anymore. What they can get away with to a limited extent is on the export side, Fentanyl being one of the prime examples.

No, China isn't going to go away, they're going to implode from within and that implosion will be a result of their own policies. I don't see China in it's current form surviving for another decade, if that long.

 

[ll74]

No, you don't know.

China's problems are all internal. Yes, the various sanctions aren't helping but their injuries are basically self-inflicted. You can cheat as much as you want but if you continue with the same policies you get the same outcome.

China will remain China but not necessarily under the leadership of the CCP. There's a reason for their outrageous internal security apparatus and heavy handed surveillance of their population. They are fearful of their own people and that's where their danger lies. All of the other issues merely feed into that basic problem.

Their energy and food problems are NOT a result of inflation, they are a result of very real shortages. Shortage of coal/oil/gas and a shortage of food. Shortages do drive the prices up but it doesn't matter to the people how much something costs when the lights are out and there's nothing to eat. That is a prescription for regime change. This is particularly acute when you consider that China had for two decades liberalized the economy and is now in the process of shutting that down.

Their rapid rise in labor costs without a commiserate increase in productivity is NOT helping them in attracting new investment and is contributing to the flight of foreign capital and the current manufacturing concerns.

Getting back to the "cheating." There is only so much they can get away with. They can't change the basic rules of business to suit their internal political agenda. They have to pay for the energy, food, and raw materials they import. If they don't they just won't get anymore. What they can get away with to a limited extent is on the export side, Fentanyl being one of the prime examples.

No, China isn't going to go away, they're going to implode from within and that implosion will be a result of their own policies. I don't see China in it's current form surviving for another decade, if that long.

Jesus Christ you are full of yourself.

Good luck on your expectations.

You haven't been right since I've seen you post here.

I guess at least AJ strokes your cock in the morning hours for ya.

 

[ffish1]

Jesus Christ you are full of yourself.

Good luck on your expectations.

You haven't been right since I've seen you post here.

I guess at least AJ strokes your cock in the morning hours for ya.

at least they read books.
you woke moo-ers are among the least educated Litsters.

 

[JohnEBbad]

Jesus Christ you are full of yourself.

...

I swear you must have been looking in the mirror when you formulated that thoughlette...

 

[ll74]

at least they read books.
you woke moo-ers are among the least educated Litsters.

You just keep trying cupcake. It's cute to see.