The coming collapse of everything.

[mayfly13]

Yes and Yes.

but WHY is it happening?
It's fucking bizarre, because it happened only over the last 1-2 months

Euro used to be far higher than US dollars for many years!!!!! And now - boom
I can't help but be suspicious of
-- the Green agenda, farmers being gutted in Europe etc
-- the war in Ukraine
ie uncle Biden. Was that his end goal with those sanctions? Strengthen the US dollar? There was nothing 'educational' about those sanctions.

 

[iso36]

but WHY is it happening?
It's fucking bizarre.

Euro used to be far higher than US dollars for many years!!!!! And now - boom
I can't help but be suspicious of
-- the Green agenda, farmers being gutted in Europe etc
-- the war in Ukraine
ie uncle Biden. Was that his end goal with those sanctions? Strengthen the US dollar? There was nothing 'educational' about those sanctions.

I think they call it “the economy” or something like that.

Despite all the Outrage over loser boys dressing as girls to win swimming competitions and a cockblock to sluts getting abortions as if they were a mani/pedi, the US economy is in relatively good shape compared to europe right now.

US Tourism to Europe this summer is huge.

Even with Prices going crazy in Europe (a higher end hotel room in Italy is now $1500usd) the strong dollar still makes Europe a good deal this year.

 

[Philthy_Phil]

The less people the better.

Best line ever .....

If the Earth dies, you die.

If you die, the Earth survives.

-Klaatu

The earth will survive regardless of what happens to us.

 

[Wrong Element]

1 EURO = 1 US $
it used to be twice of that !!!


wTF is going on?
Is the Euro in decline, or is the US dollar doing well?
Did Biden engineer it?

I credit Little Dixie for its thread on the collapse of the dollar.

 

[Chobham]

World population predictions going forward.

https://media.nature.com/lw800/magazine-assets/d41586-021-02522-6/d41586-021-02522-6_19673288.png
Source Nature

Two out of three sources have us bending the corner in ~2055. Some demographers are openly questioning whether we'll even hit 9 billion as more and more details of the Chinese (and others) census data are leaking out.

 

[ll74]

World population predictions going forward.

https://media.nature.com/lw800/magazine-assets/d41586-021-02522-6/d41586-021-02522-6_19673288.png
Source Nature

Two out of three sources have us bending the corner in ~2055. Some demographers are openly questioning whether we'll even hit 9 billion as more and more details of the Chinese (and others) census data are leaking out.

Literally the title of the article

How far will global population rise? Researchers can’t agree​

 

[icanhelp1]

I think they call it “the economy” or something like that.

Despite all the Outrage over loser boys dressing as girls to win swimming competitions and a cockblock to sluts getting abortions as if they were a mani/pedi, the US economy is in relatively good shape compared to europe right now.

US Tourism to Europe this summer is huge.

Even with Prices going crazy in Europe (a higher end hotel room in Italy is now $1500usd) the strong dollar still makes Europe a good deal this year.

If you use leading economic indicators the economy is sound for now but heading for very anemic to negative growth. It’s just a matter of time before employment rates in manufacturing start to pull back and drop. The wealth factor is abysmal, stock market is still correcting and is presently in bear market territory. Retirement investments are evaporating at an alarming rate. If your metric is to compare US to European economies your point is well taken however the strength of the US dollar sooner or later is going to cause extreme short selling abroad an could lead to economic collapse overseas. Global oil markets are volatile. OPEC, Russia, Iran and Venezuela could screw around with oil markets which could cause price increases to as high as $300/per bbl. Draining liquidity from our fed banks is hurting overseas banks and causing interest rates on our debt to rise eliminating some very valuable and needed discretionary spending.

 

[Chobham]

This is true, the researchers can't agree. Although current demographics and demographic trends do favor the "end is coming soon" crowd. Let's call them the pessimists and those that see the population continuing to rise the optimists. (Although, clearly, depending on one's POV we could easily exchange those titles.)

The problem in a nutshell is that the world economy is a Ponzi scheme. It's based on the premise that there will be an ever growing consumer base and the prime consumer base is the 18-44 age group. It's virtually identical in structure to the various social safety net schemes which are built on the premise that there will always be a large and growing cohort of the young to pay the taxes to support the old and infirm. When the demographic profile is turned upside down and you have a huge bubble of the older citizen on top of a smaller number of producers (tax payers) then the economic train starts to go off the rails. Those models are unsustainable in a declining population.

 

[ll74]

This is true, the researchers can't agree. Although current demographics and demographic trends do favor the "end is coming soon" crowd. Let's call them the pessimists and those that see the population continuing to rise the optimists. (Although, clearly, depending on one's POV we could easily exchange those titles.)

The problem in a nutshell is that the world economy is a Ponzi scheme. It's based on the premise that there will be an ever growing consumer base and the prime consumer base is the 18-44 age group. It's virtually identical in structure to the various social safety net schemes which are built on the premise that there will always be a large and growing cohort of the young to pay the taxes to support the old and infirm. When the demographic profile is turned upside down and you have a huge bubble of the older citizen on top of a smaller number of producers (tax payers) then the economic train starts to go off the rails. Those models are unsustainable in a declining population.

That's only a problem if you believe the economy won't evolve to address problems.

 

[iso36]

Some here have been singing the end is near for the us dollar for 20 years.

It’s like christians predicting the end times.

Say it long enough and it might happen.

*shrugs*

 

[Chobham]

That's only a problem if you believe the economy won't evolve to address problems.

That's assuming the various governments allow the economy to evolve organically. From an historical standpoint I know of no advanced society where the government has allowed that to occur.

Take China for example. Below is the demographic model of their population (and more recent data indicates that it's even worse than this profile.)

https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/static/1099d65a952daa11819c890845070652/2b9a8/CH_popgraph2022.jpg
China, like virtually everyone else, has built their economic model on an ever expanding population. The most glaring example is their real estate markets. They have built entire cities where no one lives on the speculation that the growing population will eventually fill those voids. It's clear from the above profile that in the year 2050 there will be approx. 500 million fewer Chinese alive than there are today. Is it any wonder that the Chinese real estate market is in a state of free fall?

 

[iso36]

Sounds like they could use some Mexicans!

( i would have said africans but it would get kradder too excited)

 

[icanhelp1]

This is true, the researchers can't agree. Although current demographics and demographic trends do favor the "end is coming soon" crowd. Let's call them the pessimists and those that see the population continuing to rise the optimists. (Although, clearly, depending on one's POV we could easily exchange those titles.)

The problem in a nutshell is that the world economy is a Ponzi scheme. It's based on the premise that there will be an ever growing consumer base and the prime consumer base is the 18-44 age group. It's virtually identical in structure to the various social safety net schemes which are built on the premise that there will always be a large and growing cohort of the young to pay the taxes to support the old and infirm. When the demographic profile is turned upside down and you have a huge bubble of the older citizen on top of a smaller number of producers (tax payers) then the economic train starts to go off the rails. Those models are unsustainable in a declining population.

The perfect description of SS. Our debt is a ponzu scheme. Sooner or later those chickens will come home to roost. If Moody is compelled to devalue gov securities, well, get ready for another Great Depression

 

[Rightguide]

Some here have been singing the end is near for the us dollar for 20 years.

It’s like christians predicting the end times.

Say it long enough and it might happen.

*shrugs*

The Biden administration wants to move from cash into a digital currency. This will be one of the great battles left to fight in our war with totalitarianism in the US. They want to be able to examine and interdict our economic freedom when it's employed by free people against the plans of the social elite.

 

[iso36]

The Biden administration wants to move from cash into a digital currency. This will be one of the great battles left to fight in our war with totalitarianism in the US. They want to be able to examine and interdict our economic freedom when it's employed by free people against the plans of the social elite.

There’s talk here about it as well , WEF type stuff.

 

[LupusDei]

Blame the smartphone.

That's the best birth control tool ever invented. It work indirectly of course. Simply by giving access to (more or less) unrestricted information and feeling (even if mostly false) of membership in the global village.

As a direct result of that teen girls with a smartphone plan to have somewhere around 1.4 children on average independently of the society they live in.

So, if you're worried about pockets of "inferior" cultures having higher fertility rates the best way to avoid that is to increase coverage, access and inclusion in the global internet. Coincidentally (through dominance in the default information space) it also means exposure to English, and American culture, and a boost to American imperialism like no other, granting stable inflow of immigration allowing maintenance of stability through the global decline of population, at least short term.

It's therefore ironic how determined the Republicans seem to be to straggle the golden gooses they seem to not even realize possessing, out of irrational hatred to, well, whatever it is today. But I digress.

Concurrent trend is automation. What it really means is that mass labor no longer defines economic strength, the quality does. It also means exponential and ongoing increase of inequality, to potentially truly fabulous levels as there are few checks on it left (with robots replacing slaves). The great time of egalitarianism started by the great plague in Europe may be at the end. It doesn't have to, though, but the neo-feudal plutocracy will see it does. Not out of ville intent (well, not only) but out of inertia delusional view of economy as zero sum game.

In all likelihood the next couple centuries may see human race to split into gods and savages once again. Then, as always, the gods will die out in internal squabbles and savages be left free to overpopulate the planet... Only without the oil pouring out on the surface the rebuilding of technological civilization next time will be a bit more difficult.

 

[Rightguide]

There’s talk here about it as well , WEF type stuff.

And we know how wedded the Democrat Party and woke Republicans are to the "liberal world order."

 

[LupusDei]

And we know how wedded the Democrat Party and woke Republicans are to the "liberal world order."

Why wouldn't they as it limits the global population while making them richer?

 

[Rightguide]

Why wouldn't they as it limits the global population while making them richer?

Because that isn't their job. Their job is to maintain the social order of the United States under the Constitution which says nothing in its enumeration of powers about a duty to "liberal world order."

 

[Chobham]

Blame the smartphone.

That's the best birth control tool ever invented. It work indirectly of course. Simply by giving access to (more or less) unrestricted information and feeling (even if mostly false) of membership in the global village.

As a direct result of that teen girls with a smartphone plan to have somewhere around 1.4 children on average independently of the society they live in.

So, if you're worried about pockets of "inferior" cultures having higher fertility rates the best way to avoid that is to increase coverage, access and inclusion in the global internet. Coincidentally (through dominance in the default information space) it also means exposure to English, and American culture, and a boost to American imperialism like no other, granting stable inflow of immigration allowing maintenance of stability through the global decline of population, at least short term.

It's therefore ironic how determined the Republicans seem to be to straggle the golden gooses they seem to not even realize possessing, out of irrational hatred to, well, whatever it is today. But I digress.

Concurrent trend is automation. What it really means is that mass labor no longer defines economic strength, the quality does. It also means exponential and ongoing increase of inequality, to potentially truly fabulous levels as there are few checks on it left (with robots replacing slaves). The great time of egalitarianism started by the great plague in Europe may be at the end. It doesn't have to, though, but the neo-feudal plutocracy will see it does. Not out of ville intent (well, not only) but out of inertia delusional view of economy as zero sum game.

In all likelihood the next couple centuries may see human race to split into gods and savages once again. Then, as always, the gods will die out in internal squabbles and savages be left free to overpopulate the planet... Only without the oil pouring out on the surface the rebuilding of technological civilization next time will be a bit more difficult.

You've made some good points that I'd like to respond to.

I'm curious about your statement re. republicans. Is that in reference to abortion? Even if abortion were to be banned outright, which it isn't, the result would have little effect on the US fertility rate. It would slow down the population decline but it wouldn't stop it. As you pointed out in your previous paragraph women are exercising control over their reproduction.

Regarding your comments on "inferior" cultures. Many of those cultures are going to starve to death and that starvation begins this year. This is primarily as a direct result of the Russian-Ukraine situation. They will not have access to surplus grains, fertilizer, or energy. The advanced nations are going to preserve their own before they deal with the third world nations. That is just the cold, hard, facts of life. On a side note, this coming starvation is going to be devastating to certain environments.

Regarding automation. You have hit upon what will be the most likely outcome. The only issue is that raw material (either mined or recycled) and energy will be required. Those industries use mostly unskilled/semi-skilled labor and a lot of it. And this may tie back into your "inferior" culture comment. The survivors will most likely be the pool of labor used to do these jobs.

Re. your Gods and savages comment. That is certainly one possible outcome. A dystopian society where virtually all civilized forms of government breakdown. The return to city-state structures and/or feudalism is also a possibility.

 

[iso36]

or, plant some trees, increase the CAFE to 150mpg, there’s thousands of ways to adapt/prosper.

People do like the end of the world talk, they always have.

Scroll through netflix etc, dystopia and killing is the bulk of it… american content is all death, all the time.

I wonder if your people are being programmed to accept less of everything or if its just pandemic downbeat fear.

 

[LupusDei]

You've made some good points that I'd like to respond to.

I'm curious about your statement re. republicans. Is that in reference to abortion? Even if abortion were to be banned outright, which it isn't, the result would have little effect on the US fertility rate. It would slow down the population decline but it wouldn't stop it. As you pointed out in your previous paragraph women are exercising control over their reproduction.

Regarding your comments on "inferior" cultures. Many of those cultures are going to starve to death and that starvation begins this year. This is primarily as a direct result of the Russian-Ukraine situation. They will not have access to surplus grains, fertilizer, or energy. The advanced nations are going to preserve their own before they deal with the third world nations. That is just the cold, hard, facts of life. On a side note, this coming starvation is going to be devastating to certain environments.

Regarding automation. You have hit upon what will be the most likely outcome. The only issue is that raw material (either mined or recycled) and energy will be required. Those industries use mostly unskilled/semi-skilled labor and a lot of it. And this may tie back into your "inferior" culture comment. The survivors will most likely be the pool of labor used to do these jobs.

Re. your Gods and savages comment. That is certainly one possible outcome. A dystopian society where virtually all civilized forms of government breakdown. The return to city-state structures and/or feudalism is also a possibility.

Interesting you wonder I meant abortion legislation specifically. In the greater order of things that's such a non-issue. Anyway, all the abortions that need to happen will, no matter what, by suicide of mothers if not otherwise; there's no way to stop that. The damage done by unsafe abortions and/or psychological harm will contribute to decline of fertility rates, so, if there's any, the correlation with fertility should be the other way around: unrestricted access to health care including elective abortions with no questions asked should slightly increase fertility rates, or rather, any messing with that ideal state decrease the same.

However, that is indeed an indicative issue, exactly because of the greater damage it does to the would at large due to outsized influence U.S. have globally. Why would anyone honor human rights if even U.S. own messaging is so confused? It's a huge boost to legitimacy of all and any existing and would be oppressive regimes and dictatorships anywhere.

I'm more about the suicidal MAGA trumpism policies at large. About when they were in a step from owning the world Americans want to crawl in their own lair and go to sleep likely dooming everyone in the process. Almost anything that guy did was detrimental if not actively harmful to greater American interests, even directly, no less indirectly. Not so much surprise as he was placed to do just that, as much harm as possible. The surprise and the insane is that people seem to be celebrating, damn delusional savages.

Shortsightedness bordering on insanity. You're damn humans. Designed engineers of this damn spaceship. You can't suddenly decide "it's not my ("their") job" in a childish tantrum. Being defacto leaders incur certain obligations, unfortunately.

 

[ll74]

That's assuming the various governments allow the economy to evolve organically. From an historical standpoint I know of no advanced society where the government has allowed that to occur.

Take China for example. Below is the demographic model of their population (and more recent data indicates that it's even worse than this profile.)

https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/static/1099d65a952daa11819c890845070652/2b9a8/CH_popgraph2022.jpg
China, like virtually everyone else, has built their economic model on an ever expanding population. The most glaring example is their real estate markets. They have built entire cities where no one lives on the speculation that the growing population will eventually fill those voids. It's clear from the above profile that in the year 2050 there will be approx. 500 million fewer Chinese alive than there are today. Is it any wonder that the Chinese real estate market is in a state of free fall?

It evolves, slowly.

 

[Chobham]

Interesting you wonder I meant abortion legislation specifically. In the greater order of things that's such a non-issue. Anyway, all the abortions that need to happen will, no matter what, by suicide of mothers if not otherwise; there's no way to stop that. The damage done by unsafe abortions and/or psychological harm will contribute to decline of fertility rates, so, if there's any, the correlation with fertility should be the other way around: unrestricted access to health care including elective abortions with no questions asked should slightly increase fertility rates, or rather, any messing with that ideal state decrease the same.

However, that is indeed an indicative issue, exactly because of the greater damage it does to the would at large due to outsized influence U.S. have globally. Why would anyone honor human rights if even U.S. own messaging is so confused? It's a huge boost to legitimacy of all and any existing and would be oppressive regimes and dictatorships anywhere.

I'm more about the suicidal MAGA trumpism policies at large. About when they were in a step from owning the world Americans want to crawl in their own lair and go to sleep likely dooming everyone in the process. Almost anything that guy did was detrimental if not actively harmful to greater American interests, even directly, no less indirectly. Not so much surprise as he was placed to do just that, as much harm as possible. The surprise and the insane is that people seem to be celebrating, damn delusional savages.

Shortsightedness bordering on insanity. You're damn humans. Designed engineers of this damn spaceship. You can't suddenly decide "it's not my ("their") job" in a childish tantrum. Being defacto leaders incur certain obligations, unfortunately.

OK, gotcha.

The US's withdrawal from the international scene began with Clinton. "The Cold War is over, happy days are here again!" There was a resurgence under Bush during the first term but by his second term the nation began withdrawing again. That trend continued under Obama. The attitude was let the Muslim's run wild and we'll make a deal with Iran so we can forget about them. Trump was a little more sensible re. Iran but other than that the withdrawal continued and became seriously manifest. Now we have Biden and nothing has changed. The whole withdrawal process continues except the US is in an even weaker position.

The only saving grace in all this is the fact that the Chinese economy is collapsing and Russia is being bled dry. Russia can recover financially but they will never get those young men back. Their demographics are even worse than the Chinese.

Russian demographics.

https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/static/7684837464c587925a931eb5a88fca7d/2b9a8/RS_popgraph2022.jpg
Look at their 15-34 profile. Those are the military age cohort. If their losses are even half of what the Ukrainians claim they're royally fucked going forward.

As a matter of fact you can pull up the demographics for virtually EVERY European nation and you're going to see the same profile. (The UK is in better shape but still looking at population decline.)

 

[icanhelp1]

Interesting you wonder I meant abortion legislation specifically. In the greater order of things that's such a non-issue. Anyway, all the abortions that need to happen will, no matter what, by suicide of mothers if not otherwise; there's no way to stop that. The damage done by unsafe abortions and/or psychological harm will contribute to decline of fertility rates, so, if there's any, the correlation with fertility should be the other way around: unrestricted access to health care including elective abortions with no questions asked should slightly increase fertility rates, or rather, any messing with that ideal state decrease the same.

However, that is indeed an indicative issue, exactly because of the greater damage it does to the would at large due to outsized influence U.S. have globally. Why would anyone honor human rights if even U.S. own messaging is so confused? It's a huge boost to legitimacy of all and any existing and would be oppressive regimes and dictatorships anywhere.

I'm more about the suicidal MAGA trumpism policies at large. About when they were in a step from owning the world Americans want to crawl in their own lair and go to sleep likely dooming everyone in the process. Almost anything that guy did was detrimental if not actively harmful to greater American interests, even directly, no less indirectly. Not so much surprise as he was placed to do just that, as much harm as possible. The surprise and the insane is that people seem to be celebrating, damn delusional savages.

Shortsightedness bordering on insanity. You're damn humans. Designed engineers of this damn spaceship. You can't suddenly decide "it's not my ("their") job" in a childish tantrum. Being defacto leaders incur certain obligations, unfortunately.

I find your comment " I'm more about the suicidal MAGA trumpism policies at large" amusing. You may carry disdain for Trump but his policies were for the most part spot on. I'm not going to blab in defense of Trump because that's a losing argument with globalist. Feel free to expound on Trump policy that in your mind is suicidal, explain that to me while our borders are overrun with illegal migrants.

The abortion issue in the US could be described as two gunslingers about to have a shootout with each other and a huge wall separates them. What just happened with SCOTUS overturning Roe vs Wade was SCOTUS removed the wall. Abortion will not be eliminated in the US, if anything, states will have to rethink their stance on abortion. Our constitution grants the people the right to have a say on what's acceptable and what's not, true democracy. Were not in competition with the rest of the world. We have 50 states in our republic which makes us different than any country on the planet. Each state is unitary in it's governance which gives each state the unique ability to focus on their constituents.