Prelude to war.

[Chobham]

The CCP flew a drone into close Taiwanese airspace. After several warning shots the Taiwanese shot the drone down.

Xi did this on purpose. He's been prepping his nation for war with Taiwan for years now and this act is just an escalation of provocations that he will use to inflame passions. This is not going to go unanswered.

US military analysts have estimated that China won't make a move against Taiwan for 3-5 years. Given the current global situation we may not have that long. The US Navy is a wreck. They are in the midst of far too many force transitions to be totally effective. The Air Force is in better shape, but not outstandingly so. Our ground forces will be utterly useless in such a confrontation.

Xi is running for a third term coming up in Oct. and is doing so not without opposition. The Chinese economy is in free fall with no end in sight, a great deal of the fault lies with his policies. There's nothing like a 'good war' to unite the populace. Ironically the same can be said of our nation from a political stand point. Biden can't allow Taiwan to fall because to do so will be the last nail in his political coffin and if he doesn't know that, he should.

 

[LukSkyFokker]

Civil War​

Prelude to war.​

There will be war.​

There Will be War – Prologue​

There Will be War – Japan vs. Russia.​

There will be War – Bolivia vs Chile​

There Will be War - Russia VS China​

Looks like war to me​

The next "Civil War?"​

​

Drunk warmonger Ishtard is the best Ishtard.

BTW - How many of NostraDumbAss' predictions came true?

 

[ll74]

Fear mongering is fun. China isn't going to chance it.

Good luck with your expectations.

 

[Dribble]

It is a tactic right from the books of Fascism. Instill fear. Degrade anyone questioning your action as not loving their country.

 

[John_von_Neumann]

Looks like war to me​

Assmeal is my new nickname for Ishmael. Thanks, AJ!

 

[icanhelp1]

It is a tactic right from the books of Fascism. Instill fear. Degrade anyone questioning your action as not loving their country.

Did you take that MO right out of Biden's speech.

 

[ll74]

Did you take that MO right out of Biden's speech.

His speech wasn't scary.

 

[JohnEngelman]

The Chinese economy is in free fall with no end in sight, a great deal of the fault lies with his policies. There's nothing like a 'good war' to unite the populace. Ironically the same can be said of our nation from a political stand point. Biden can't allow Taiwan to fall because to do so will be the last nail in his political coffin and if he doesn't know that, he should.

A falling economy for China reduces China's ability to finance a military build up and a war. The Chinese economy is dependent on exporting consumer goods. Nearly everything you can find in a department store was made in China. A boycott of Chinese goods would sink the Chinese economy. It would be good for American manufacturers and factory workers.

The U.S. government should pass a law right now calling for a complete boycott of Chinese goods in the event of military aggression against Taiwan.

A Chinese defeat in Taiwan and a Chinese economic collapse could mean the end of the Communist dictatorship, and the beginning of a democratic government on the mainland. The success of democracy in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan tells me that it would work well on the mainland too.

 

[LukSkyFokker]

Chodebum's thread is fucking awesome.

 

[JohnEBbad]

If the mainland has paid any attention to Ukraine, then I can imagine them being a bit hesitant to invade.

 

[Chobham]

A falling economy for China reduces China's ability to finance a military build up and a war. The Chinese economy is dependent on exporting consumer goods. Nearly everything you can find in a department store was made in China. A boycott of Chinese goods would sink the Chinese economy. It would be good for American manufacturers and factory workers.

The U.S. government should pass a law right now calling for a complete boycott of Chinese goods in the event of military aggression against Taiwan.

A Chinese defeat in Taiwan and a Chinese economic collapse could mean the end of the Communist dictatorship, and the beginning of a democratic government on the mainland. The success of democracy in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan tells me that it would work well on the mainland too.

Let me point out that China needs to import damn near everything that goes into those goods they export, including the energy needed to keep the lights on and food to keep the workers alive. Shutting down the input would be just as effective as shutting down demand for the output. I hope that the CCP realizes that. The decision to invade or not may revolve on just how secure Xi feels about the up coming election.

China could prevail over Taiwan, at a horrendous cost to both nations, but they would prevail. Further Chinese military doctrine has long held that the use of nukes on Taiwan would violate no international conventions. Their view is quite simple, Taiwan is NOT a foreign power and is part of China, if the leadership wants to use nukes on their own territories it's perfectly permissible to do so. No different than if the US gov't. should decide it wanted to nuke New Hampshire. The decision would be internal affairs and no one else's business. The CCP would have a phyrrhic victory, but a victory none the less.

 

[Chobham]

If the mainland has paid any attention to Ukraine, then I can imagine them being a bit hesitant to invade.

Yup. But politics and rational thought are often another one of those oxymoron's.

 

[JohnEBbad]

A collapsing economy might indeed trigger military action of distraction.

 

[JohnEBbad]

Nuke New Hampshire



It does have a ring to it.

 

[JohnEngelman]

A collapsing economy might indeed trigger military action of distraction.

The distraction would last until the Chinese military runs out of money.

 

[JohnEngelman]

Should Taiwan agree to receive the mainland back from the communists or say no thanks?

What Taiwan should do is say that it will unite with the mainland as soon as the mainland adopts a democratic government, with several political parties, regular contested elections, and open political debate. The Communist Party would continue to exist, but it would compete with other parties on terms of legal and political equality.

The Communist dictatorship would of course refuse, but Taiwan's offer would put it on the defensive in world opinion.

 

[John_von_Neumann]

How's Assmeal's prediction aging?

 

[LupusDei]

Unfortunately there's steady progress toward said war. For now I will hold my previous assessment of no earlier than 2024-25 though. Japan apparently thinks Xi will most likely go for the war at the start of his fourth term, in 2027-28 and I have no reason to call that wrong.

I haven't bothered to look up the exact text, but they enshrined some kind of statement about Taiwan's indivisible belonging into China in the constitution amendments. As it that would matter any...

When Xi effectively became unlimited emperor yesterday. With personal power concentration, by some early assessments, possibly greater than Mao. They really had to look up emperors of old for comparisons.

Meanwhile, recently Biden effectively kneecaped Chinese industry destroying their access and possibly even ability to develop advanced microprocessors. In a move demonstrating blatant imperial hegemony, actually, but we are supposed to cheer. The potential effects for China are outright apocalyptic, the practice likely wouldn't be quite, but time will tell. Also what the cascade secondary and further effects will be, the potential there is... ugly as well, at least short-medium term (as soon it will filter through the flabbergasted supply chains).

Chinese haven't missed the mess Russia wade into in Ukraine and reportedly are unhappy about what they see in multiple levels. That invasion wasn't a month old when they announced a reform, potentially complete overhaul of their officer training.

So, Chinese may not think they are actually ready to go, and may want at least a couple years still to get there. But nobody ever is ready for a war, and in a ways they are running against the clock, and perhaps now more ways and faster clocks that last year.

So... the perhaps best deterrent would be making a demonstration out of Russian defeat, but there's barely time for that, and lesions learned by Chinese may not be the ones we would want to teach them.

Again the war in Ukraine offers perfect opportunity to ramp up ammunition production in seemingly unrelated way but just in time. Will it be taken?

P.S. the ongoing popular liberal revolution in Iran deserves keeping an eye on as it can provide another clear warning to much any dictatorship. And by the way, the resistance in Myanmar is slowly winning too, and launched their first large scale coordinated assault into a major city this week. Junta was once regarded as Chinese puppet/client regime, but from the distance it seems both combatants dust it out in almost perfect isolation there, for now. Potentially that may change too.

 

[ffish1]

The Chinese economy is in free fall with no end in sight, a great deal of the fault lies with his policies. There's nothing like a 'good war' to unite the populace. Ironically the same can be said of our nation from a political stand point. Biden can't allow Taiwan to fall because to do so will be the last nail in his political coffin and if he doesn't know that, he should.

Paul Buchannan (pol. analyst) said he was surprised when Russia invaded Ukraine.
Because he'd been forecasting that America will be the next one to start a war, "as empires in decline start wars to re-establish themselves". But then he added that, on second thought, Russia being the other superpower to start a war made sense. Just like America, it's an empire in decline (birth rate being one of many factors).

We're fucked. Three Empires in decline, and international circumstances that could speed up the wars they prepared 'just in case' for years.

Let me point out that China needs to import damn near everything that goes into those goods they export, including the energy needed to keep the lights on and food to keep the workers alive. Shutting down the input would be just as effective as shutting down demand for the output. I hope that the CCP realizes that. The decision to invade or not may revolve on just how secure Xi feels about the up coming election.
China could prevail over Taiwan, at a horrendous cost to both nations, but they would prevail.

you mean due to America's sanctions?
Without the international deterrants like America UK Australia & (fear of sanctions or warships) wouldn't China have heaps to gain -- like Taiwan's rare minerals, Lithium among other resources?

Meanwhile, recently Biden effectively kneecaped Chinese industry destroying their access and possibly even ability to develop advanced microprocessors. In a move demonstrating blatant imperial hegemony, actually, but we are supposed to cheer. The potential effects for China are outright apocalyptic, the practice likely wouldn't be quite, but time will tell.

how about that .......

 

[ll74]

China has the world's largest supply of rare earth minerals. That is huge on the international market.

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-...-rare-earth-dominance-spurs-us-and-its-allies

 

[jaF0]

China needs to start making noises near the red line like they want to move out to the coast which would cut any land link between Putty and RocketBoi.

Just move troops to the area without crossing the line .... yet.

 

[ffish1]

I know that you all know these things and consider them to be basic,
but this is such a good read.... it puts so nicely the dots on most of the ii's...



Why Protecting Taiwan Really Matters to the U.S. -- By Elbridge A. Colby

“America is roughly 20% of global GDP. And the only state today that matches up to that description is China.But China on its own is not strong enough. China too is roughly 20% of global GDP.
So how could China pose such a threat to our interests? By dominating Asia. Asia is now again the center of the world, upwards of 50% of global GDP going forward.

If China becomes dominant in such a way over Asia it will have a controlling influence over roughly half of the global economy.
---To those who resist (play ball with such a China(, there will be penalties: exclusion from access, tariffs, and sanctions. Think of the economic power America can now wield against Russia in Beijing‘s hands, and at even greater scale.
---Most Americans would effectively be working for Chinese companies or their subsidiaries in one way or another.
---If Beijing is dominant over the world economy (…) the social media companies will ultimately be answerable to Beijing, and the situation will be even worse.

These are the stakes …. (....) Beijing’s behavior, and at a deeper level China’s interests, all point in the direction of Beijing pursuing a form of soft imperial control—what we might call hegemony—over Asia.
(But)…countries are unlikely to accept Chinese hegemony just due to economic sanctions and persuasion. Witness the difficulties Beijing is facing with its Belt and Road Initiative, and how even Australia, dependent on China’s imports for its economy, has stood up to China’s daunting economic pressure over the last year.

Beijing appears to agree with this assessment, as it is embarking on an historic military buildup of both its conventional and nuclear forces.”

https://time.com/6221072/why-protecting-taiwan-really-matters-to-the-u-s/