Predictions US Senate elections 2006

[amicus]

I did a Google search under this: Predictions US Senate elections 2006

and selected the following links and excerpts.

For those of you who follow US politics and more specifically the US Senate as that body has the obligation to confirm Supreme Court nominations made by the President, then you know that the next Senate may be faced with confirming another 'conservative' appointment by President Bush.

In the current sharp divide between left and right in American politics, the make-up of the next Senate becomes of primary concern.

The underlying conflict lies in the perception that the Supreme Court has been left leaning, liberal, for many years and has, by a narrow margin, approved legislation considered by many to be unconstitutional in nature.

The main issues concern Roe v Wade and court enforced legislation to equalize differences between racial and minority groups. Another issue of emminent domain may also play a role in future court decisions.

The next Supreme Court Justice confirmed will directly influence the overall political leaning of the court.

Thus there is heavy partisan participation in upcoming Senate elections and the fervor will increase as the November elections approach.

You can search under the same key phrase as I did, (the title of this post) or conduct other searches to support your position.



http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1058



http://www.mydd.com/story/2005/12/1/144756/048

Overall Forecast: Right now, I forecast Democratic pickup of 1 to 3 seats. The situation remains volatile, however, and could easily change significantly in favor of one party or the other. It should be noted that the odds are still heavily against a Democratic takeover in 2006.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/1/27/42057/4267

It will be very difficult to take the Senate in 2006, but Democrats will come close. Right now (considering Senator Jeffords as a Democrat), the Senate is divided 55-45. According to traders on Tradesports eight seats are competitive; six Republican and two Democrat. If held today, Democrats would pick up two seats but the GOP would likely keep control of the Senate by a margin of 53-47.



http://home.earthlink.net/~abramsonm/id2.html
Early 2006 Predictions:
Governors. Dems takes over AK (Murkowski), CA (Schwarzenegger), MA (ASSUMED OPEN), NY (OPEN), OH (OPEN). GOP takes over IA (OPEN)
Senate. Dems takes PA (Santorum) and RI (Chafee), GOP takes over MN (OPEN).
House. Dems takes CO-7 (OPEN), IA-1 (OPEN), and PA-6 (Gerlach). GOP takes over IL-8 (Bean).


amicus...

 

[SEVERUSMAX]

I wouldn't exactly miss Santorum if he were voted out. Don't look for any GOP gains in WV, where Robert Byrd might retire at last. It is still mostly a Dem stronghold. I am thinking that a BARE GOP majority in the Senate is likely, with the tiebreaker being VP Cheney himself.

House: here is the BIG one. I predict a Dem sweep, with the House changing hands for the first time in 12 years. Pelosi will become Speaker, with Harold Ford as Majority Leader, I think. Boehner's selection might reduce the effect, however, causing the Dems to have to work with the GOP on certain issues, anyway. A veto-proof majority is unlikely in either house, so the Dems will have to work with the President on some things.

 

[amicus]

SEVERUSMAX]I wouldn't exactly miss Santorum if he were voted out. Don't look for any GOP gains in WV, where Robert Byrd might retire at last. It is still mostly a Dem stronghold. I am thinking that a BARE GOP majority in the Senate is likely, with the tiebreaker being VP Cheney himself.

House: here is the BIG one. I predict a Dem sweep, with the House changing hands for the first time in 12 years. Pelosi will become Speaker, with Harold Ford as Majority Leader, I think. Boehner's selection might reduce the effect, however, causing the Dems to have to work with the GOP on certain issues, anyway. A veto-proof majority is unlikely in either house, so the Dems will have to work with the President on some things.

[/I]

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~`


Hello again, Severus...I did a similar search for House predictions but found mostly partisan stuff with little or no factual reasoning behind the predictions.

All 435 seats are up every two years, so it makes the scope a bit too wide to go seat by seat and weigh the results, at least for me.

This is about the best I found after scanning two pages of entries:


http://davideisenthal.typepad.com/the_eisenthal_report/2005/12/2006_events_and.html

"...Predictions

Both houses of Congress are likely to remain under Republican control after the 2006 elections. Gerrymandering has created too many safe seats for the Republicans in the southern and western states for there to be a serious run at the House of Representatives this year. In the US Senate, of the 33 seats that are up, only 15 are currently held by Republicans. The Democrats could gain a few of these seats, but not enough to overcome the current 55 to 45 Republican majority (counting Sen Jim Jeffords (I - Vermont) as a Democrat)..."


amicus...

 

[Weepingguitar]

Okay, my predictions are always ALWAYS spot on. So get ready for this...

I predict....


That some people will be elected....

 

[SEVERUSMAX]

Okay, my predictions are always ALWAYS spot on. So get ready for this...

I predict....


That some people will be elected....

Here's another safe one. They will pass some laws, mostly stupid ones.

 

[Weepingguitar]

Here's another safe one. They will pass some laws, mostly stupid ones.

Yeah, that sounds about right ^_^

 

[SEVERUSMAX]

[/I]

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~`


Hello again, Severus...I did a similar search for House predictions but found mostly partisan stuff with little or no factual reasoning behind the predictions.

All 435 seats are up every two years, so it makes the scope a bit too wide to go seat by seat and weigh the results, at least for me.

This is about the best I found after scanning two pages of entries:


http://davideisenthal.typepad.com/the_eisenthal_report/2005/12/2006_events_and.html

"...Predictions

Both houses of Congress are likely to remain under Republican control after the 2006 elections. Gerrymandering has created too many safe seats for the Republicans in the southern and western states for there to be a serious run at the House of Representatives this year. In the US Senate, of the 33 seats that are up, only 15 are currently held by Republicans. The Democrats could gain a few of these seats, but not enough to overcome the current 55 to 45 Republican majority (counting Sen Jim Jeffords (I - Vermont) as a Democrat)..."


amicus...

I hadn't thought about that factor, but "gerrymandering" does tend to favor the ruling party. It just isn't enough to save them in certain rare cases (such as 1994).
Personally, the composition of the Senate matters more to me than the House. It can stay GOP, for all I care. I just want another Sandra Day O'Connor-type centrist on the Supreme Court, ruling in favor of civil liberties and against too much power for government at all levels.

 

[SEVERUSMAX]

Yeah, that sounds about right ^_^

Then again, MOST laws are stupid. Another reason that we have a Constitution and a Supreme Court.

 

[amicus]

Severus...I realize a 'Centrist' is sought by many, however...

I think one must acknowledge that the generation long activism of the Court has changed the nation.

I think also, that one must acknowledge, that in election after election, the general population is rejecting the secular humanist view of social issues, eg, abortion, gay marriage, affirmative action.

I think it only fair recompense after 30 years of left wing issues, we should have 30 years of right wing issues.

The Centrist, 'swing vote' style of O'Conner, I think, served nothing other than to create uncertainty as to the next decision.

amicus...

 

[Colleen Thomas]

I did a Google search under this: Predictions US Senate elections 2006

and selected the following links and excerpts.

For those of you who follow US politics and more specifically the US Senate as that body has the obligation to confirm Supreme Court nominations made by the President, then you know that the next Senate may be faced with confirming another 'conservative' appointment by President Bush.

In the current sharp divide between left and right in American politics, the make-up of the next Senate becomes of primary concern.

The underlying conflict lies in the perception that the Supreme Court has been left leaning, liberal, for many years and has, by a narrow margin, approved legislation considered by many to be unconstitutional in nature.

The main issues concern Roe v Wade and court enforced legislation to equalize differences between racial and minority groups. Another issue of emminent domain may also play a role in future court decisions.

The next Supreme Court Justice confirmed will directly influence the overall political leaning of the court.

Thus there is heavy partisan participation in upcoming Senate elections and the fervor will increase as the November elections approach.

You can search under the same key phrase as I did, (the title of this post) or conduct other searches to support your position.



http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1058



http://www.mydd.com/story/2005/12/1/144756/048

Overall Forecast: Right now, I forecast Democratic pickup of 1 to 3 seats. The situation remains volatile, however, and could easily change significantly in favor of one party or the other. It should be noted that the odds are still heavily against a Democratic takeover in 2006.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/1/27/42057/4267

It will be very difficult to take the Senate in 2006, but Democrats will come close. Right now (considering Senator Jeffords as a Democrat), the Senate is divided 55-45. According to traders on Tradesports eight seats are competitive; six Republican and two Democrat. If held today, Democrats would pick up two seats but the GOP would likely keep control of the Senate by a margin of 53-47.



http://home.earthlink.net/~abramsonm/id2.html
Early 2006 Predictions:
Governors. Dems takes over AK (Murkowski), CA (Schwarzenegger), MA (ASSUMED OPEN), NY (OPEN), OH (OPEN). GOP takes over IA (OPEN)
Senate. Dems takes PA (Santorum) and RI (Chafee), GOP takes over MN (OPEN).
House. Dems takes CO-7 (OPEN), IA-1 (OPEN), and PA-6 (Gerlach). GOP takes over IL-8 (Bean).


amicus...

The next Justice will not neccissarily affet the makeup. If Thomas or Scalia, were to become sik or resign for some other reason, he would likely be replaced with a judge of like opinion.

Not arguing with you rpremise. Just a note for anyone not in the US who might wonder.

 

[amicus]

Yes, of course, Colleen, many possibilities, but if as predicted, a liberal justice is the next to retire, then the Court would change.

By the way congratulations on your Novel placing in the top 10 out of the 500 listed, good job!


amicus...

 

[SEVERUSMAX]

Severus...I realize a 'Centrist' is sought by many, however...

I think one must acknowledge that the generation long activism of the Court has changed the nation.

I think also, that one must acknowledge, that in election after election, the general population is rejecting the secular humanist view of social issues, eg, abortion, gay marriage, affirmative action.

I think it only fair recompense after 30 years of left wing issues, we should have 30 years of right wing issues.

The Centrist, 'swing vote' style of O'Conner, I think, served nothing other than to create uncertainty as to the next decision.

amicus...

Not so sure about that with the "general population". As a secular humanist myself, I see hopeful signs in the Maine referendum in favor of gay rights, for instance. I think it depends on the region. The South remains right-wing. The North is more liberal, and the West tends to be more "Libertarian" in outlook.

 

[elsol]

I think also, that one must acknowledge, that in election after election, the general population is rejecting the secular humanist view of social issues, eg, abortion, gay marriage, affirmative action.
amicus...

And in election after election, they are choosing religious conservative stances.

Ask the muslims how they feel about free speech; yeah, I see the Evangelicals leaving Lit in peace.

Sincerely,
ElSol

 

[amicus]

elsol]And in election after election, they are choosing religious conservative stances.

Ask the muslims how they feel about free speech; yeah, I see the Evangelicals leaving Lit in peace.

Sincerely,
ElSol

[/I]

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

You could interpret it that way, I suppose.

Two things, by rejecting liberalism, people are not necessarily choosing the religious right. My take is that they simply want government out of infringing upon individual choices.

Except the abortion issue, which is taken as a destruction of life.

Secondly, the Muslim world does not have a Declaration of Independence, A Constitution and a Bill of Rights. All of which combine to protect the rights of 'free speech.

All the fluff about losing rights under an 'imperial presidency' is just that, fluff; created by the ACLU and the rabid left wing in hopes of winning the White House, who knows, it may work, but I hope not.


amicus...

 

[SEVERUSMAX]

I personally feel my "individual choices" more threatened by the GOP than by the Dems these days (except on guns, that is).

 

[elsol]

I would be there with you on some liberals going of the deep end except...

Gonzales said on Dec. 19, “We have had discussions with Congress in the past — certain members of Congress — as to whether or not FISA could be amended to allow us to adequately deal with this kind of threat, and we were advised that that would be difficult, if not impossible.”

This was his reply when asked why not go to Congress to allow them to put what Bush wanted into law.

It says to me... "They knew they were on the line... they understood they would be balked (BY THEIR OWN CONGRESS), and they made a concious decision to circumvent the process."

Whenever someone says "It's easier to ask forgiveness than permission", they know their doing something wrong and they're willing to suck the concequences rather than deal with the issue up front.

Sincerely,
ElSol

 

[amicus]

Elsol, et al....the Fisa Court, in addition to creating red tape backlog also has many requirements that compromise national security by recording the identity of foreign and domestic users of communications networks.

With some small experience, albeit dated, in this field, operatives must keep the nature of their investigation secure and secret if it is to be ongoing.

Using the apparatus of the FISA system would effectively destroy the ability to surviel in secrecy.

There are some oversight agencies to monitor the activities of security agencies within the US Government but the bottom line is that we place a certain degree of trust in these agencies not to abuse the tactics they use.

I really think a 'secret service' has to be just that, secret.

We have spies around the world, counter espionage ops that most likely include 'wet work', I think we really don't want to know about most of those things.

Again, the Commander and Chief, which ever party elected him, has always known and used these tactics to protect the United States. History continues to show that while there are some abuses, the system serves us well.

I think it will continue to do so.


amicus...

 

[JamesSD]

Well, as I've said elsewhere, I expect the Dems to make small gains in both the house and senate (1-2 seats in total), and the republicans to maintain majorities. I'd expect the more moderate Republicans will gain some clout, especially if the Republicans have a very small majority and need every vote.

I also expect everyone and their mom to try to seem more centrist as '08 presidential primaries approach. I don't think any Supreme Court Justices will retire in the next 2 years.

I really hope that the current supreme court respects all the changes for the better that have been established in the past 30 years. I feel Roberts will respect precedence, but the Alito-Scalia-Thomas trifecta is quite dangerous.

 

[elsol]

Elsol, et al....the Fisa Court, in addition to creating red tape backlog also has many requirements that compromise national security by recording the identity of foreign and domestic users of communications networks.

With some small experience, albeit dated, in this field, operatives must keep the nature of their investigation secure and secret if it is to be ongoing.

Using the apparatus of the FISA system would effectively destroy the ability to surviel in secrecy.

There are some oversight agencies to monitor the activities of security agencies within the US Government but the bottom line is that we place a certain degree of trust in these agencies not to abuse the tactics they use.

I really think a 'secret service' has to be just that, secret.

We have spies around the world, counter espionage ops that most likely include 'wet work', I think we really don't want to know about most of those things.

Again, the Commander and Chief, which ever party elected him, has always known and used these tactics to protect the United States. History continues to show that while there are some abuses, the system serves us well.

I think it will continue to do so.


amicus...

Yes...

But these idiots got caught with their hand in the cookie jar.

I'm not going to cry if someone 'accidently' confuses me for Ahmed-Massa-whatever-da-fuck and tries to listen in on my phone conversation... I hope they enjoy the frakin' boredom of listening to my girlfriend complain about her boss.

But if you're too fucking stupid to keep shit under-wraps, don't do it.

In other words... don't bury the bodies, make it so Allah can't find them with Jesus and Buddha helping.


Sincerely,
ElSol

 

[Huckleman2000]

Here's my Senate predictions:

Chafee - (R) R.I. - defeated
Santorum - (R) PA - defeated
DeWine - (R) OH - defeated
Burns - (R) MT - defeated
Frist - (R) TN - retires, seat goes Dem.

Net gain: Dem. 5 seats

Makeup in 2007: 50-50

 

[amicus]

Thas possible....and in a 50-50 Senate...Cheney votes....


amicus....

 

[Huckleman2000]

Thas possible....and in a 50-50 Senate...Cheney votes....


amicus....

Maybe...
Or, in a 50-50 Senate, Cheney does time.

 

[amicus]

Cheney for Prez!

 

[Colleen Thomas]

Yes, of course, Colleen, many possibilities, but if as predicted, a liberal justice is the next to retire, then the Court would change.

By the way congratulations on your Novel placing in the top 10 out of the 500 listed, good job!


amicus...

thank you

Not sure which novel so I'll have to look

 

[SEVERUSMAX]

To clarify, I see Orwellian aspects to BOTH major parties, but the fundamentalists are the ones running the show right now, whereas the other Orwellian group, the radical feminists, are in disarray and battling for influence in the opposition party.