trysail
Catch Me Who Can
- Joined
- Nov 8, 2005
- Posts
- 25,593
Risky Business
The price of a gallon of gasoline is well below the cost of a gallon of milk. If you think it's all a vast conspiracy, I suggest you go have a look 100 miles offshore in the Gulf of Mexico in 10,000 feet of water where hurricane force winds of 100 mph can churn up 50' seas. It costs $1 billion to drill a well there (and that's just to find out if there's anything at the bottom of the well! It is a very, very, very risky business- but the demagogues have to point fingers at somebody, don't they?)-
all this is done so that you can get in your car and drive to the grocery store to buy the latest edition of "Peephole" or "National Enquirer."
What appears below is from an acquaintance who works as a petroleum geologist in Nigeria for one of the international oil companies.
(Note: Nigeria is Africa's largest oil producer (~2.2 MMbbl/d), an OPEC member and the fifth largest supplier of foreign oil to the USA (~1 MMbbl/d, or 9% of imported crude). Notional spare capacity related to unrest is ~0.5+ MMbbl/d but half or more is badly damaged.)
_________________________________________________________________
Nigeria Update 16 March, 2007
Elections still on target for April.
Governorship and state house assembly elections will take place on April 14.
Presidential and national assembly elections will take place on April 21.
Handover to the incoming administration will take place on May 29.
As dictated by the Nigerian consitution, President Obasanjo will be handing over power after the second of his two terms in office. The odds-on favorite to succeed Obasanjo is Umar Yar'Adua of Obasanjo's People's Democratic Party (PDP). The procedure by which Yar'Adua was chosen in December was not particularly transparent - he was basically hand-picked the same way that Mexican presidents used to select their successors when the PRI party was in power for most of the 20th century. The selection of Yar'Adua was ratified by a group of party delegates who were essentially given no choice in the matter after the preferred candidate was designated by party insiders. A running mate was also chosen at that time - governor Jonathan Goodluck of Bayelsa State. Goodluck was selected because he 'represents' the south, whereas the Muslim Yar'Adua 'represents' the north as the current governor of Katsina State.
Goodluck has only been governor for ~18 months after succeeding the impeached and disgraced Diepreye Alamieyeseigha who is facing corruption charges after jumping British bail from London in a wig and a dress. Alamieyeseigha was a known patron of the predecessor militant group to the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) and his release is routinely demanded by kidnappers. Goodluck's wife is facing money laundering charges and it is widely believed that he used state funds to pay for a widely publicized hip-hop concert in Lagos a year ago featuring American performers Jay-Z, Beyonce and Snoop Dogg among others. Give the people what they want to buy votes!
Yar'Adua seems to have recovered from a kidney ailment which sent him to Germany last week for medical treatment. Yar'Adua was med-evacc'ed out of the country by Julius Berger PLC - a German owned construction firm that seems to enjoy a monopoly on civil engineering projects in Nigeria. Everywhere they so much as repave a concrete sidewalk they erect an imposing (1 meter square) concrete marker with a blue 'B' logo.
This week, VP Atiku Abubakar was also flown out of the country, to London for knee surgery. Abubakar is a Muslim from Adamawa State. He was paired with Obasanjo in the current ticket which matched Obasanjo ('representing' the south, from Ogun State) and Abubakar 'representing' the north. Alas, VP Abubakar fell out with President Obasanjo over Obasanjo's attempt to rewrite the constitution and seek a third term. The two have feuded bitterly, trading corruption allegations (probably mostly true) in the media for the last 18 months. Among the accusations, Obasanjo is said to have tapped into state funds (specifically the Petroleum Technology Development Fund, ostensibly to invest windfall oil revenues) to bribe senators to vote in favor of amending the constition to allow him to run for a third term. Obasanjo attempted to have Abubakar impeached in December - the VP escaped to his suburban residence in Potomac MD to weather the political storm, apparently slumming to fly commercial after Obasanjo grounded his courtesy jet.
Just yesterday, the federal electoral commission released a list of eligible candidates to contest the federal election. Abubakar has foresworn the PDP in favor of the Action Congress (AC). As of now, Abubakar is the most visible member of AC. However, his name was left off the list and Abubakar is challenging this in court. Abubakar was left off the list on the basis of corruption charges levelled by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission - the same outfit that fingered 31 of 36 state governors for shady business practices and ruled out the presidential candidacy of erstwhile PDP favorite Peter Odili. An Abubakar ally was implicated in the corruption scandal involving US Rep. William Jefferson from New Orleans (with the hidden $90,000 of cold cash in the freezer). The AC is the most viable alternative to the PDP, but opposition is divided and regional in nature. No opposition candidate has emerged that would draw support from all parts of the country.
http://www.guardiannewsngr.com/news/article01
All told, 24 parties are fielding presidential candidates. Worthy of note is Mohammed Buhari of the ANPP (All Nigerian Peoples' Party). Buhari was military ruler in the mid 1980s, as was Obasanjo in the late 1970s.
http://www.guardiannewsngr.com/news/article02
Bios of notables -
Olesegun Obasanjo
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obasanjo
Jonathan Goodluck
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodluck_Jonathan
Peter Odili, with a photo of trophies for good governance!
http://www.onelga.com/Hisexcellency.htm
Atiku Abubakar. According to a recent biography, Abubakar's money comes from 'wise investments, hard work and sheer luck of being in the right place at the right time'; he also worked in the customs office for 20 years, rising to Deputy Director! Did I mention the vacation home in Potomac MD?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atiku_Abubakar
Mohammed Buhari
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohammed_Buhari
Umar Yar'Adua
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Umar_Yar'Adua
Meanwhile militant activity carries on at a somewhat reduced level. The militants, while professing to champion the cause of dispossessed swamp-dwellers of the Niger Delta, are really gangs who are jockeying for the patronage spoils of local politicians - specifically, the state governors. In fact, many have in fact been supported in the past by local politicians (such as Rivers State governor Peter Odili - Port Harcourt is in Rivers State). Yesterday, there was a shootout involving followers of Ateke Tom - who is the leader of the Niger Delta Vigilantes, perhaps the second-most famous militant group after MEND.
http://www.guardiannewsngr.com/news/article07
The price of a gallon of gasoline is well below the cost of a gallon of milk. If you think it's all a vast conspiracy, I suggest you go have a look 100 miles offshore in the Gulf of Mexico in 10,000 feet of water where hurricane force winds of 100 mph can churn up 50' seas. It costs $1 billion to drill a well there (and that's just to find out if there's anything at the bottom of the well! It is a very, very, very risky business- but the demagogues have to point fingers at somebody, don't they?)-
all this is done so that you can get in your car and drive to the grocery store to buy the latest edition of "Peephole" or "National Enquirer."
What appears below is from an acquaintance who works as a petroleum geologist in Nigeria for one of the international oil companies.
(Note: Nigeria is Africa's largest oil producer (~2.2 MMbbl/d), an OPEC member and the fifth largest supplier of foreign oil to the USA (~1 MMbbl/d, or 9% of imported crude). Notional spare capacity related to unrest is ~0.5+ MMbbl/d but half or more is badly damaged.)
_________________________________________________________________
Nigeria Update 16 March, 2007
Elections still on target for April.
Governorship and state house assembly elections will take place on April 14.
Presidential and national assembly elections will take place on April 21.
Handover to the incoming administration will take place on May 29.
As dictated by the Nigerian consitution, President Obasanjo will be handing over power after the second of his two terms in office. The odds-on favorite to succeed Obasanjo is Umar Yar'Adua of Obasanjo's People's Democratic Party (PDP). The procedure by which Yar'Adua was chosen in December was not particularly transparent - he was basically hand-picked the same way that Mexican presidents used to select their successors when the PRI party was in power for most of the 20th century. The selection of Yar'Adua was ratified by a group of party delegates who were essentially given no choice in the matter after the preferred candidate was designated by party insiders. A running mate was also chosen at that time - governor Jonathan Goodluck of Bayelsa State. Goodluck was selected because he 'represents' the south, whereas the Muslim Yar'Adua 'represents' the north as the current governor of Katsina State.
Goodluck has only been governor for ~18 months after succeeding the impeached and disgraced Diepreye Alamieyeseigha who is facing corruption charges after jumping British bail from London in a wig and a dress. Alamieyeseigha was a known patron of the predecessor militant group to the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) and his release is routinely demanded by kidnappers. Goodluck's wife is facing money laundering charges and it is widely believed that he used state funds to pay for a widely publicized hip-hop concert in Lagos a year ago featuring American performers Jay-Z, Beyonce and Snoop Dogg among others. Give the people what they want to buy votes!
Yar'Adua seems to have recovered from a kidney ailment which sent him to Germany last week for medical treatment. Yar'Adua was med-evacc'ed out of the country by Julius Berger PLC - a German owned construction firm that seems to enjoy a monopoly on civil engineering projects in Nigeria. Everywhere they so much as repave a concrete sidewalk they erect an imposing (1 meter square) concrete marker with a blue 'B' logo.
This week, VP Atiku Abubakar was also flown out of the country, to London for knee surgery. Abubakar is a Muslim from Adamawa State. He was paired with Obasanjo in the current ticket which matched Obasanjo ('representing' the south, from Ogun State) and Abubakar 'representing' the north. Alas, VP Abubakar fell out with President Obasanjo over Obasanjo's attempt to rewrite the constitution and seek a third term. The two have feuded bitterly, trading corruption allegations (probably mostly true) in the media for the last 18 months. Among the accusations, Obasanjo is said to have tapped into state funds (specifically the Petroleum Technology Development Fund, ostensibly to invest windfall oil revenues) to bribe senators to vote in favor of amending the constition to allow him to run for a third term. Obasanjo attempted to have Abubakar impeached in December - the VP escaped to his suburban residence in Potomac MD to weather the political storm, apparently slumming to fly commercial after Obasanjo grounded his courtesy jet.
Just yesterday, the federal electoral commission released a list of eligible candidates to contest the federal election. Abubakar has foresworn the PDP in favor of the Action Congress (AC). As of now, Abubakar is the most visible member of AC. However, his name was left off the list and Abubakar is challenging this in court. Abubakar was left off the list on the basis of corruption charges levelled by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission - the same outfit that fingered 31 of 36 state governors for shady business practices and ruled out the presidential candidacy of erstwhile PDP favorite Peter Odili. An Abubakar ally was implicated in the corruption scandal involving US Rep. William Jefferson from New Orleans (with the hidden $90,000 of cold cash in the freezer). The AC is the most viable alternative to the PDP, but opposition is divided and regional in nature. No opposition candidate has emerged that would draw support from all parts of the country.
http://www.guardiannewsngr.com/news/article01
All told, 24 parties are fielding presidential candidates. Worthy of note is Mohammed Buhari of the ANPP (All Nigerian Peoples' Party). Buhari was military ruler in the mid 1980s, as was Obasanjo in the late 1970s.
http://www.guardiannewsngr.com/news/article02
Bios of notables -
Olesegun Obasanjo
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obasanjo
Jonathan Goodluck
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodluck_Jonathan
Peter Odili, with a photo of trophies for good governance!
http://www.onelga.com/Hisexcellency.htm
Atiku Abubakar. According to a recent biography, Abubakar's money comes from 'wise investments, hard work and sheer luck of being in the right place at the right time'; he also worked in the customs office for 20 years, rising to Deputy Director! Did I mention the vacation home in Potomac MD?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atiku_Abubakar
Mohammed Buhari
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohammed_Buhari
Umar Yar'Adua
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Umar_Yar'Adua
Meanwhile militant activity carries on at a somewhat reduced level. The militants, while professing to champion the cause of dispossessed swamp-dwellers of the Niger Delta, are really gangs who are jockeying for the patronage spoils of local politicians - specifically, the state governors. In fact, many have in fact been supported in the past by local politicians (such as Rivers State governor Peter Odili - Port Harcourt is in Rivers State). Yesterday, there was a shootout involving followers of Ateke Tom - who is the leader of the Niger Delta Vigilantes, perhaps the second-most famous militant group after MEND.
http://www.guardiannewsngr.com/news/article07
