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Just the Polls

Listein to Rachel Maddow's podcast Ultra 1 and 2 if you have not already. Republicans are gearing up to torpedo the election. Get out and make your voices heard and check your local election boards for MAGAt Republicans.
 
and it's just the start of her campaign, now with Governor Walz on the ticket :cool:
 

In new Marist poll, Harris makes astronomical move on Trump​

https://www.nj.com/news/2024/08/in-new-marist-poll-harris-makes-astronomical-move-on-trump.html
In a new poll released Tuesday night, Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, has taken an enormous lead on former president Donald Trump among independent voters.


Harris is up nine points with that group (53%-44%) after being down 14 points with them when she launched her campaign just two weeks ago.
Click to expand...
 
John_von_Neumann said:

In new Marist poll, Harris makes astronomical move on Trump​

https://www.nj.com/news/2024/08/in-new-marist-poll-harris-makes-astronomical-move-on-trump.html
Click to expand...
Marist and Sienna College are the gold standards of political polling.
This is very good news for the Democrats.

Thankfully for the Republicans, they still have Rasmussen Reports ("we never poll anyone under 22 becoz erryone knows kids never vote!") and they have Trump up by five on their new "Landlines AND self-selecting Internet users" polling method.
 
Using current polling numbers, Harris leads in four of the seven most competitive swing states, while Trump leads in three. According to the Electoral College polling map produced by RaceToTheWhiteHouse, if the election were exactly matched current polling in each state, Harris would win the Electoral College with 276 votes to Trump's 262.

https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-battleground-state-chances-donald-trump-1935651
 
jaF0 said:
Using current polling numbers, Harris leads in four of the seven most competitive swing states, while Trump leads in three. According to the Electoral College polling map produced by RaceToTheWhiteHouse, if the election were exactly matched current polling in each state, Harris would win the Electoral College with 276 votes to Trump's 262.

https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-battleground-state-chances-donald-trump-1935651
Click to expand...
I was curious this morning to see what was going on in New Mexico, as some folks claimed it was a "battleground" state. The article you quoted doesn't even list New Mexico, and 538.com shows not a single presidential poll in the state since Kamala Harris became the presumptive nominee.

I'm guessing New Mexico is now considered "Likely Democratic".
 
1723127130761.png

Interesting tidbit. CNN no longer has their polling chart on the front page, or even on the politics page.
 
All we can say right now is that the polls are close, making the election hard to predict. A lot can happen between now and then that can turn things one way or another.
 
SimonDoom said:
All we can say right now is that the polls are close, making the election hard to predict. A lot can happen between now and then that can turn things one way or another.
Click to expand...
The point of the thread is to provide polls, not to analyze them.

Trends are important in polling
 
ll74 said:
The point of the thread is to provide polls, not to analyze them.

Trends are important in polling
Click to expand...
OK. I just think it's of limited value. It's like fussing over whether the temperature today is 84 degrees or 86 degrees when what we care about is what it's going to be in November. We know the polls are close; the rest is noise.

If by Sept. 1 Trump has a lead in most polls, that would be significant. Given the nature of the Electoral College, the odds would be against Harris winning. If Harris has a lead of several percent, particularly in the battle ground states that matter, that would be significant. But if it's closer than that then I think the difference is mostly noise.
 
SimonDoom said:
OK. I just think it's of limited value. It's like fussing over whether the temperature today is 84 degrees or 86 degrees when what we care about is what it's going to be in November. We know the polls are close; the rest is noise.

If by Sept. 1 Trump has a lead in most polls, that would be significant. Given the nature of the Electoral College, the odds would be against Harris winning. If Harris has a lead of several percent, particularly in the battle ground states that matter, that would be significant. But if it's closer than that then I think the difference is mostly noise.
Click to expand...
I am fine with debate on polling.

Just not in this thread.

This is providing polls, hopefully without analysis. I know they are not always correct.
 
Nate Silver, formerly of fivethirtyeight.com and now promoting his "exclusive" polling site thesilverbulletin.com was on MSNBC this morning, with a startling new development:

The state of Nevada, which polled +5 Trump as recently as 30 days ago, polled Harris +2 in a poll to be released later today. He said a 7 point swing in one month is very unusual, almost unheard of. There is a margin of error, so it's not a lock for Harris, he cautioned. But Nevada is now a "toss up", last month it was "leaning Republican".

He also pointed out that if Harris wins the traditional 'blue firewall" of the Great Lakes states AND Nevada, she will be our next president.

Teh "Shoot Teh Messenger" contingent will be along shortly after their naps.
 
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