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Just the Polls

ll74 said:
Interesting data, not quite a poll, but registration numbers by party. They come in heavily against Democrats.

Link is to the tweet which contains the data source as well - Decision Desk HQ
https://twitter.com/x/status/1811437512554131724
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No offense, but to me this data is meaningless without doing the deep dive into the county break down she provides. I am not willing to take the time to do that to draw a conclusion one way or the other.
 
Aglaopheme said:
No offense, but to me this data is meaningless without doing the deep dive into the county break down she provides. I am not willing to take the time to do that to draw a conclusion one way or the other.
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This thread isn't about arguments or opinions or swaying people in any way. It's just information for people to see and use as they wish. It may go against your chosen candidate or party.....many times it's against mine.

I think having more data and information is good, especially absent of analysis. Please do with it what you need or ignore it completely.
 
ll74 said:
This thread isn't about arguments or opinions or swaying people in any way. It's just information for people to see and use as they wish. It may go against your chosen candidate or party.....many times it's against mine.

I think having more data and information is good, especially absent of analysis. Please do with it what you need or ignore it completely.
Click to expand...
I never said it was about opinions to sway people, my opinion on this data has nothing to do with my political affiliation, and everything to do with providing good meaningful data. The table you posted doesn’t really provide that data. Therefore, I did not provide my opinion on which party this data favors. Her county break down would be good data to prove or disprove your assertion/opinion that this is bad news for Dems.
 
Aglaopheme said:
I never said it was about opinions to sway people, my opinion on this data has nothing to do with my political affiliation, and everything to do with providing good meaningful data. The table you posted doesn’t really provide that data. Therefore, I did not provide my opinion on which party this data favors. Her county break down would be good data to prove or disprove your assertion/opinion that this is bad news for Dems.
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The underlying data is sourced in the tweet. I never said it was "bad news". I said the numbers come in heavily against Dems. (I e registration numbers are negative for Democrats)
 
ll74 said:
The underlying data is sourced in the tweet. I never said it was "bad news". I said the numbers come in heavily against Dems. (I e registration numbers are negative for Democrats)
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I know that data is there, and it is there for very good reason, said I was not willing to do the deep dive it would take to make an informed opinion.

Does negative/heavily against not equal bad?
 
Aglaopheme said:
I know that data is there, and it is there for very good reason, said I was not willing to do the deep dive it would take to make an informed opinion.

Does negative/heavily against not equal bad?
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To some, it might be. I never said it was bad, which is why I corrected you.
 
Latest from Nate Silver
Trump +3

Last update: 1:45 p.m, Friday, July 12: Today’s a good example of the importance of house effects. Two new national polls came out, with Biden trailing Trump by only 1 point in a Marist poll, but by 6 points in a Rasmussen survey. (FYI: this is in the version with third-party candidates included — that’s always the version our model uses.) However, Marist has given Biden some of his best numbers all cycle and Rasmussen some of his worst. (As it typically does; Rasmussen has a long history of strongly Republican-leaning numbers.)

Adjust for that, as our model does, and both polls are consistent with a world in which Biden trails Trump by around 3 points nationally, which implies a poor position in the Electoral College. In fact, Biden’s Electoral College win probability is the lowest to date in our forecast, having slipped to about 1-in-4.

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
 
Marist Poll

  • Among registered voters nationally including leaners, Biden receives 50% to 48% in the two-way presidential matchup. Two percent are undecided. Biden and Trump were tied (49% to 49%) in last month’s pre-debate NPR/PBS News/Marist survey.
Click to expand...

Honesty Trumps Age​

Americans are overwhelmingly more concerned about a president who plays fast and loose with the facts than someone who is too old to serve. Nearly seven in ten Americans (68%) think it is more concerning if a president does not tell the truth. Nearly one in three (32%) think it is more concerning if someone is too old to serve. Democrats (85%), independents (66%), and a slim majority of Republicans (51%) agree that dishonesty is of greater concern over advanced age.
Click to expand...
 

Donald Trump Gets Bad News From Black Voters​

The proportion of Black voters in seven key battleground states who would vote for Joe Biden against Donald Trump has surged by 15 points, according to a new survey for BlackPAC.
Click to expand...

The survey also found Biden's net approval rating as president with Black voters in the seven key swing states increased from 44 points in February to 54 points in June, when 74 percent of this category approved of his performance and just 20 percent disapproved.
Click to expand...

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-gets-bad-news-black-voters-1924324
 
adrina said:

Donald Trump Gets Bad News From Black Voters​





https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-gets-bad-news-black-voters-1924324
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👍

Give it a few more months of people really getting to hear / know about “Project 2025” and Trump’s plans to funnel more money to the wealthy and corporations.

👍

The continuing climate change related disasters also might convince more people that President Biden and the Democrats have faaaaaaar better policies than the alternative.

👍

I also believe President Biden getting back up after getting knocked down is truly inspiring to a lot of people.

👍

🇺🇸
 
Lazaran said:
👍

Give it a few more months of people really getting to hear / know about “Project 2025” and Trump’s plans to funnel more money to the wealthy and corporations.

👍

The continuing climate change related disasters also might convince more people that President Biden and the Democrats have faaaaaaar better policies than the alternative.

👍

I also believe President Biden getting back up after getting knocked down is truly inspiring to a lot of people.

👍

🇺🇸
Click to expand...
Don’t tell @ll74 … besides he wants a poll posted here.

https://www.politico.eu/article/russian-election-vladimir-putin-fake-legitimacy-moscow-ukraine/

Here’s one for @Rightguide.. Daddy Vlady is so popular!
 
Not a poll but an informative article on prediction markets. Polymarket, the blockchain exchange that’s getting a large amount of attention in this election, is profiled along with another startup called Kalshi.

Will Biden Drop Out? The Biggest Question in America Is the Newest Hot Market​

Prediction markets can provide a clear signal through even the most deafening noise. That’s why Americans are obsessively refreshing this one.​


https://www.wsj.com/tech/polymarket...051gaii5afjx137&reflink=article_copyURL_share
 
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