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Just the Polls

Reuters:
"Trump co-campaign manager Chris LaCivita heaped scorn on a national college Republican group whose post on social media platform X said [Trump's NY trial] jury's verdict should be respected.
"Opinions are like assholes...everyone has one...," LaCivita posted."

If a Republican chair said opinions are like assholes, then so are the opinion poles that are touted if they don't favor your candidate. :giggle:
 

Biden needs to do more than make up his deficit in national polls​

If the popular vote is close, Trump will probably win the election.​

Nate here, briefly! I’m excited since this is Eli McKown-Dawson’s first article for Silver Bulletin. And we’re making it a Model Talk(our weekly column for paid subscribers) since it goes into a lot of detail on the impact of the Electoral College on this year’s presidential forecast. Obviously, Democrats face some other big challenges — is Biden still going to be their nominee? But the Electoral College is a key background factor as they make their decision and will likely make their path more uphill whomever they pick. Bringing the race back a popular vote “tie” probably isn’t enough — they need some margin to spare to make up for Trump’s likely Electoral College edge. -NS
https://www.natesilver.net/p/biden-needs-to-do-more-than-make
 
I swear how fucking funny. Biden is still within the margin of error for beating trump even with the dems not wanting him. trump is such a loser. There should be a poll, trump against the invisible man. trump would be behind.
 
adrina said:
Click to expand...
No disagreement with her comments on the importance of good research design - sample representation, confidence intervals, margin of error, etc.

But the point she’s trying to argue is that polls “are shit.” She goes on to say that a reason they’re shit is that polling firms are motivated by profit.

She’s essentially arguing that major polling firms like Monmouth, Quinnipiac, Siena, Gallup, etc. that national political campaigns and media outlets like NYT, Bloomberg, WSJ, CNN, etc. spend big bucks on are useless. And that those polling firms don’t see the relationship between their reputation/credibility and their ability to stay in business. She also assumes these firms that are staffed with statisticians, social science researchers, data scientists, etc. are clueless.

Most of the polls we share on this thread provide “the small print” she mentions. That’s why 1174 and I try to provide links to the raw data - sample size, sample selection, qualifying questions about “likely” voters, question language, cross tabs, etc. It’s why I try to stick with polls that qualify for the RCP averages and FiveThirtyEight data sets. And it’s why we periodically post apples to apples trends, not one off polls. And finally, as people followed my posts know, I repeatedly remind folks that polls are simply snapshots in time.

There’s a reason successful polling firms stay in business, and there’s a reason national, state, and major local political campaigns rely heavily on the data they produce. Same with businesses. They help target messaging and spending.

The lady is correct that polls should not be relied upon exclusively. Qualitative research (ex. interviews, focus groups) are valuable elements as well. Also external data.

The RCP averages on Election Day in recent elections have been well within the margin of error. They showed Obama leading in 2008-2012, Hillary ahead in 2016, and Biden ahead in 2020. The margins didn’t match the results precisely but they were pretty darn close.

If you agree with the premise that “polls are shit”, this thread probably isn’t for you. The purpose of this thread, as 1174 makes perfectly clear, is to post “Just the Polls.”
 
adrina said:
Click to expand...

Polls ARE shit.

And "someone" who starts a thread dedicated to them is an idiot on some level.

👎

And "someone" who CONSTANTLY cites those shit polls is a total POS troll - a POS poll troll.

👎

The truly disturbing and dangerous thing about “shit polls”, is the reaction from ignorant gaslighted individuals (generally MAGAts) who become enraged when the results of an election don’t match the shit polling that they were indoctrinated into believing actually meant something.

The fact that shit polls are actually getting worse due to various factors that were partially elucidated in the video is even more disturbing and dangerous when combined with ignorant gaslighted individuals (generally MAGAts) ’ "FAITH" in those polls, and their willingness to engage in insurrection, etc, when the results of ACTUAL elections don’t match the shit polls they were fed. (See: 2020)

🤬

JFC

SAD!!!
 
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