Florida and hurricanes

[Sugar Baby Wanted]

I am not the only one questioning the sanity

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/29/opinions/hurricane-ian-florida-population-strader/index.html

CNN? I won't even open that propagandist dribble.

 

[Sugar Baby Wanted]

"The number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes appears to have nearly doubled in occurrence from 1970 to 2004. It is likely that the increase in Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane frequency is primarily due to improved monitoring."


[Note 'improved monitoring' does not mean more have occurred, only that more are identified.]



"A total of 94 hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean Basin, including the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean, have reached Category 4 status as their peak intensity. (Note that Category 4 storms that intensified later to Category 5 status are not included in this analysis.)"



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_4_Atlantic_hurricanes

And cleaner air increases hurricane strength.

 

[iso36]

When you look at 100 year patterns, the change in number and severity of storms is effectively zero.

View attachment 2180945
We find that, after adjusting for such an estimated number of missing storms, there is a small nominally positive upward trend in tropical storm occurrence from 1878-2006. But statistical tests reveal that this trend is so small, relative to the variability in the series, that it is not significantly distinguishable from zero

 

[SgtSpiderMan]

Ladies and gentlemen… Lit’s biggest twat…. Spiderboi.

At least you know you’re wrong.

 

[iso36]

When you look at 100 year patterns, the change in number and severity of storms is effectively zero.

View attachment 2180945
We find that, after adjusting for such an estimated number of missing storms, there is a small nominally positive upward trend in tropical storm occurrence from 1878-2006. But statistical tests reveal that this trend is so small, relative to the variability in the series, that it is not significantly distinguishable from zero

The various political forces behind climate issues usually pull data from short cycles to suit their position.

Truth is that big storms are tracked on 100 year cycles, with most of the data collected since 1850 or the beginning of the Industrial Revolution.

So, the data we have is less than 2 cycles and more than half of it was collected with 17th Century equipment and anecdotal reports from random sailing ships.

Further, it’s widely accepted that a number of storms were not observed or recorded before 1940 and storms recorded from 1940 until the advent of electronic measurement versus 17th century mercury/mechanical instruments were not recorded as accurately as today.

Keeping in mind that we inhabit a small portion of the planet, storm data is fertile ground for misinformation agents with hidden agendae.

That said, the 100 year data suggests no statistical variance in number, strength or intensity of atlantic hurricanes.

 

[Wrong Element]

Some years back then there were more… go read the links.



I’m saying that some storms in the old days weren’t measured as accurately as the past 30 years.

A couple of things: first, in an era where life was more dangerous all around, individual natural disasters would have had to be pretty deadly to be remembered for very long.

And second, the part of the country that's most affected by hurricanes used to be a lot less populated. As recently as the 1940 census, Florida had the smallest population of any Southern state. If a hurricane had hit what is now Miami 150 years ago, there would have been no one there to notice it.

It appears the longterm trend with tropical storms is that there are slightly more of them, and that hurricane season is becoming more spread out as the ocean warms. Hurricane Andrew, which was 30 years ago, hit Florida in mid-August. The first named storm of the year always comes earlier than that these days.

But a small upward trend in the number of tropical storms is still an upward trend. If the climate weren't changing, the trend line would be flat.

 

[iso36]

A couple of things: first, in an era where life was more dangerous all around, individual natural disasters would have had to be pretty deadly to be remembered for very long.

And second, the part of the country that's most affected by hurricanes used to be a lot less populated. As recently as the 1940 census, Florida had the smallest population of any Southern state. If a hurricane had hit what is now Miami 150 years ago, there would have been no one there to notice it.

It appears the longterm trend with tropical storms is that there are slightly more of them, and that hurricane season is becoming more spread out as the ocean warms. Hurricane Andrew, which was 30 years ago, hit Florida in mid-August. The first named storm of the year always comes earlier than that these days.

But a small upward trend in the number of tropical storms is still an upward trend. If the climate weren't changing, the trend line would be flat.

I think we’re saying pretty much the same thing…. Except i think theyre cherry picking the data to support green energy etc. Durka durka.


My proviso re warmer water is that the Gulf Stream’s temperature and distance from the east coast from the Carolinas up to Nova Scotia has always varied year over year , plus the effects of nino/nina.

Some years you can swim in the ocean on the outer banks until November…. Some years you can wear shorts and t-shirt in Boston at halloween… depends on the Gulf Stream.

And those are the years you can get a big storm labour day weekend…. or late in the season like Ian.

 

[phrodeau]

Slight upward trends and no downward trends, just like I said.

 

[oggbashan]

Over recent decades the water temperature in the Gulf of Mexico has been rising. Hotter sea temperatures make hurricanes more severe.

If a hurricane's course goes through the Gulf, it is likely to gain strength rather than lose it.

 

[butters]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/t...pc=U531&cvid=fe46661b80a5416cbc37e65dc8d8e1b4

salt water and evs don't mix

Flooded Tesla EVs From Hurricane Ian Exploding All Over Florida​

it's not just teslas, though