Disaster in the Making

[Aglaopheme]

I don't care about your guys' Trump fights, nor am I condoning kurdish genocide, Aglao.

I'm just trying to understand, to integrate somehow the following in the current "Turkey's anti-kurd invasion" narrative. Because right now, they don't fit:


Over the past months, Turkey has been raising repeated alarms that it feels overwhelmed by the refugee burden placed on her (4 million Syrians, 300.000 kurds, and other Muslims) and unsupported by EU.

Unless it was a pr campaign to legitimize the current attack.

I was not referring to you at all.

 

[jaF0]

Uh...that’s not how ISIS came about. Not even close.


Revisionist history indeed.

"ISIL originated as Jama'at al-Tawhid wal-Jihad in 1999, which pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda and participated in the Iraqi insurgency following the 2003 invasion of Iraq by Western forces at the behest of the United States."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_State_of_Iraq_and_the_Levant

 

[icanhelp1]

You're talking to "Democrats can never do any wrong under any circumstances" Emerson40.

All Bush's fault, clearly.

Yeah, some of these people have no concept of law, history, the constitution or current events. It's just constant oral diarrhea with absolutely no objectivity. It's like their trapped in a left only revolving door.

 

[jaF0]

Yeah, I have no concept of law, history, the constitution or current events. It's just constant oral diarrhea with absolutely no objectivity. It's like I'm trapped in a right only revolving door.

We get that. We really do.

 

[LupusDei]

I think you've been feed a far left, pro-globalist anti-nationalist perspective that is wildly hyperbolic. Right in there with "He's literally HITLER!! ORANGE HITLER!!!" it's just silly.

Silly or not, they do have a lot in common, Hitler and Trump. Neither are evil or even necessarily bad people. Both are stupid, mentally unstable, delusional conmen who appropriated existing political movements to build personal cult following, come to power in democratic elections, had chaotic administrations and... hopefully the similarities end here. Hopefully. I am seriously and legitimately afraid that his reelection could be end of the USA as we know it. And, no, it has absolutely nothing to do with any (D)/(R) left/righ political spectrum, I'm too alien to even grasp the concept of that scale Americans use. Although if anything, I'm nationalsocialist myself.

Nah, Saddam and his psycho kids were real scum, real evil. They were 100% on the list of people who really should and deserved to be taken out.

Even though the WMD threat was later found to be bunk, cleansing the Earth of that regime, especially the boys, was imo a good thing for the planet and humanity at large.

I do however think we should have handed Iraq back to it's people and left after their elections.

No much question about that, they were scum and overstaying their rule by a couple of decades. If you guys went and finished it off properly the first time... yeah, I know, not that easy, not that mandate, nor mission. But then, it could have worked, perhaps. Although, the sad truth is you can't free people by force. Intervening "liberation" always fails if not coming for support of a legitimate movement within. And remember who rebelled against Hussein and suffered chemical weapon attacks under him, Kurds did. Sure they're one of what, three major factions in Iraq? And one of five(?) In Syria.

I would too, but at the same time we can't fight everyone's fight for them forever.

So we need to either commit to the extermination of Islamofascism everywhere. Which means several decades of military action and trillions of dollars. Which I think would be a huge mistake we're in no position to make.

Or let Europe and Russia police their back yard and take the opportunity and money to un-fuck ourselves a bit.

I've been in favor of the latter idea since 2006 ish and 100% support Trump further reducing our military presence/expenditures on conflict in the ME just like I supported Obama pulling out of Iraq.

IMO we the US of A, need to do some nation building and national security here at home and get ourselves straightened out before we think about doing it in the middle east.

Nothing much to say on this, being a world cop is a hard and thankless place to be, no doubt. Just that I think that in modern world isolationism is't even a possibility. And then, I have vested interests to rather see US mismanagement in middle east than Russian. Call me russophobe if you must, I am, but I got reasons to be. So for me, this substitution is the worst outcome in this whole thing.

 

[bigsly]

Well; you covered just about the whole political spectrum. So, what are you?
Statist and conservative are on opposite ends of the scale!

He's someone who sits there on the fence until all the hard work is done, then tells you how you coulda done it better if you'd only listened to him after the fact.

You two obviously dripped down the same leg.

 

[LupusDei]

Who are the majority of these "Kurds" Turkey intends to neutralize to try to create both a buffer zone between Syria and Turkey and a land of refuge settlement for hundreds of thousands of displaced Syrians in their own country?

To put face on whom we are messing with here
https://s2.reutersmedia.net/resources/r/?m=02&d=20191009&t=2&i=1438878575&w=640&fh=&fw=&ll=&pl=&sq=&r=2019-10-09T150503Z_34543_MRPRC1FE8C72C90_RTRMADP_0_MIDEAST-CRISIS-ISLAMIC-STATE-SDF

Yes, they're socialist. Secular Islam lends itself to quite far left socialist ideology by default.

 

[bellisarius]

Everyone should take the time to watch "Lawrence of Arabia." Not only is the film entertaining but it captures the essence of the region, its peoples, and their attitudes. It also captures the depth of the British betrayal of those people and the very real reasons why they were betrayed.

Although 100 years have passed, not all that much has changed beyond some of the cast of characters. The Muslim tribal attitudes in that regions certainly haven't. Watching Erdogan move his nation away from the tenets laid down by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk post WWI is a huge disappointment. Turkey showed promise as a beacon for the Muslim world at one time, not any more it seems. Iran was one of those showing promise at one time as well.

For the time being there are only two islands of stability in the Mid-East. Israel and Egypt. And there's no telling how long Egypt may stay that way.

Are the Kurd's going to suffer? Yes, and they will continue to suffer so long as they keep agitating for a greater Kurdistan.

I reiterate, we, the US, do not have the resources that would be required to keep those tribes from going for each others throats forever. We cannot export or impose freedom, liberty, or tolerance. We've tried and it doesn't work. We have all we can handle trying to contain China and Iran with China being the far greater threat.

 

[jaF0]

The US shared intelligence with Turkey that may have helped it target the Kurds in Syria
Business Insider | Thu Oct 10, 2019 21:06 UTC

The US provided Turkey with intelligence, including surveillance video and information from reconnaissance aircraft, that may have aided in its assault on US-allied Kurdish forces in Syria,

 

[icanhelp1]

"ISIL originated as Jama'at al-Tawhid wal-Jihad in 1999, which pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda and participated in the Iraqi insurgency following the 2003 invasion of Iraq by Western forces at the behest of the United States."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_State_of_Iraq_and_the_Levant

You're right, as an offshoot of Al Qaeda Iraq. My point is the vision of a Caliphate under the leadership of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi 2010 till 2014 ( till present ) and the ISIS surge under Obama's admin. I didn't think it was necessary to get into ISIL, I get it! your good with a google button.

aL Zarqawi was the leader of the Iraqi insurgence. Bush had that beat with a troop surge in 2007.

 

[LupusDei]

Are the Kurd's going to suffer? Yes, and they will continue to suffer so long as they keep agitating for a greater Kurdistan.

It's a great nation arbitrary divided between four countries by borders drawn mostly by outsiders.

Sure, creation of greater Kurdistan demands dismounting of both Turkey and Iran in addition to Syria and Iraq (where they are reached practical independence) there's just too many reasons why it can't reasonably happen. However, history isn't reasonable, so who knows.

 

[jaF0]

Illinois congressman 'heartbroken' over president's Syria moves and says he no longer supports Trump
Fox St. Louis | Thu Oct 10, 2019 21:05 UTC

Republican Rep. John Shimkus of Illinois is going further than many of his fellow GOP lawmakers in criticizing President Donald Trump's shift in Syria strategy, declaring he no longer supports Trump altogether because of the move.

 

[BotanyBoy]

I am seriously and legitimately afraid that his reelection could be end of the USA as we know it.

How do you figure?

I see his nationalism being the best part about him, I think it's why the left hates him so much, they HAAAAATE the USA and are ashamed of it as it's been known.

I think the "progressive" leftist that want to violate our core political values for the exact opposite represent the largest threat to the USA as we know it.

Although if anything, I'm nationalsocialist myself.

Liberal and nationalist myself.

Although, the sad truth is you can't free people by force. Intervening "liberation" always fails if not coming for support of a legitimate movement within.

No you can't, you're 100% right.

And remember who rebelled against Hussein and suffered chemical weapon attacks under him, Kurds did. Sure they're one of what, three major factions in Iraq? And one of five(?) In Syria.

Yea, but it's still time to go, we can't stay there forever and decided some time ago to GTFO. The time to decide to stick with it to win it has come and gone.

Nothing much to say on this, being a world cop is a hard and thankless place to be, no doubt. Just that I think that in modern world isolationism is't even a possibility. And then, I have vested interests to rather see US mismanagement in middle east than Russian. Call me russophobe if you must, I am, but I got reasons to be. So for me, this substitution is the worst outcome in this whole thing.

I don't think not being the world police is isolationism though.

What's wrong with Russia?

To put face on whom we are messing with here

Yes, they're socialist. Secular Islam lends itself to quite far left socialist ideology by default.

Another reason to GTFO, the USA shouldn't support people who promote anti-American ideologies.

 

[LupusDei]

What's wrong with Russia?

Metastatic complications since Mongol-tatar invasion. The real Russia is actually Ukraine, once upon a time protected by Great Lithuania.

But maybe their problems started when they invited Estonia born Swede to become king in Novgorod (btw, literally The New City) unable to elect a local. Moscow wasn't even founded then yet.

Um well, the past century... How about, our guys were Lenin's bodyguards for a while, but then we cleared Red Army out from some towns days ahead of Germans whom we welcomed as liberators. And then we disenfranchised some 30% of voters, predominantly Russian speakers.

Did I mention once a Lithuania born Polish girl who was a maid of German pastor who translated bible to Latvian under Swedish rule was captured in Latvia, brought to Moscow, gifted to Peter the Great as sex slave, but became the Emperor of Russia after him?

Well, beyond being an illegitimate mob rule dictatorship there's nothing much wrong with Russia, but our history is a bit tangled. Our independence is an insult to some. So yeah, mostly personal issues.

 

[icanhelp1]

Metastatic complications since Mongol-tatar invasion. The real Russia is actually Ukraine, once upon a time protected by Great Lithuania.

But maybe their problems started when they invited Estonia born Swede to become king in Novgorod (btw, literally The New City) unable to elect a local. Moscow wasn't even founded then yet.

Um well, the past century... How about, our guys were Lenin's bodyguards for a while, but then we cleared Red Army out from some towns days ahead of Germans whom we welcomed as liberators. And then we disenfranchised some 30% of voters, predominantly Russian speakers.

Did I mention once a Lithuania born Polish girl who was a maid of German pastor who translated bible to Latvian under Swedish rule was captured in Latvia, brought to Moscow, gifted to Peter the Great as sex slave, but became the Emperor of Russia after him?

Well, beyond being an illegitimate mob rule dictatorship there's nothing much wrong with Russia, but our history is a bit tangled. Our independence is an insult to some. So yeah, mostly personal issues.

Very interesting and insightful. I enjoyed studying the Bolshevik revolution in college.

 

[bellisarius]

What's wrong with Russia?

Russia has a serious demographic problem. Starting with their fertility rate, it's 1.61 children per female. Just to maintain a population the fertility rate has to be 2.1 children per female. They are dying as a nation.

Close to 50% of the males in Russia are beyond military age. And the fertility rate merely compounds that problem. After the year 2021 they will no longer represent a serious military threat with regard to any expansionist desires. They'll still have their nukes and area denial technologies, but they aren't going to be invading anyone anytime soon.

 

[suurfer]

What a mess... Syria deserves an international payment for being continuously shat on.

And the EU completely mishandled the refugees situation.

They took in those who arrived by sea (physically fit, many young men) - probably because they needed a workforce.

They should have taken those from Turkey instead, who are likely genuine, vulnerable refugees .

 

[LupusDei]

They'll still have their nukes and area denial technologies, but they aren't going to be invading anyone anytime soon.

Well, our defense doctrine is based on full scale Russian invasion. We have 4k highly trained pros, and 10k national guard, and 1k NATO Canadians, and then some Americans on training rotation, it's varied, but presence is constant. Per capita, we contribute to NATO operations more than anyone (however we do not have reached the prescribed 2% military spending yet). There's about 130k Russian troops stationed around Pskov, some 300km from Riga (and that's only the western regiment). We plan to stand on our own for up to a week (yes, it's insanely optimistic) then disperse for guerrilla warfare. Actually, national guard starts decentralized, we even discuss should specialists be allowed to have antitank weapons at home. We also proved in wargames that US troops could land here in under 17 hours from bases in US mainland under basic defcon4 readiness. Of course, the airspace will likely be denied, and anyway, it's the political will that's our main concern.

Although actually, it's more likely that we may have to deal with some out of control general in post-Putin chaos than the full thing

 

[bellisarius]

Well, our defense doctrine is based on full scale Russian invasion. We have 4k highly trained pros, and 10k national guard, and 1k NATO Canadians, and then some Americans on training rotation, it's varied, but presence is constant. Per capita, we contribute to NATO operations more than anyone (however we do not have reached the prescribed 2% military spending yet). There's about 130k Russian troops stationed around Pskov, some 300km from Riga (and that's only the western regiment). We plan to stand on our own for up to a week (yes, it's insanely optimistic) then disperse for guerrilla warfare. Actually, national guard starts decentralized, we even discuss should specialists be allowed to have antitank weapons at home. We also proved in wargames that US troops could land here in under 17 hours from bases in US mainland under basic defcon4 readiness. Of course, the airspace will likely be denied, and anyway, it's the political will that's our main concern.

Although actually, it's more likely that we may have to deal with some out of control general in post-Putin chaos than the full thing

I have no idea why Putin would even be eyeing the Baltic's. Beyond salving some butt hurt for lost prestige what is there for them to gain? A couple more ports? And then what? They're still bottled up in the Baltic. Natural resources? They have an untapped treasure chest in Siberia.

Putin can spread his forces as thin as he wants but treaty or not, I'd have my eye on the Amur river. Only a fool would think the Chinese aren't eyeing the Siberian resources themselves.

 

[BotanyBoy]

Well, beyond being an illegitimate mob rule dictatorship there's nothing much wrong with Russia, but our history is a bit tangled. Our independence is an insult to some. So yeah, mostly personal issues.

Who's independence?

They'll still have their nukes and area denial technologies, but they aren't going to be invading anyone anytime soon.

Nah....from my perspective China is the only joint able to expand right now.

I think after they are done with HK they will go after others and own the south pacific.

 

[LupusDei]

Who's independence?

Sorry if it wasn't clear from context, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia.

I have no idea why Putin would even be eyeing the Baltic's. Beyond salving some butt hurt for lost prestige what is there for them to gain? A couple more ports? And then what? They're still bottled up in the Baltic. Natural resources? They have an untapped treasure chest in Siberia.

Putin can spread his forces as thin as he wants but treaty or not, I'd have my eye on the Amur river. Only a fool would think the Chinese aren't eyeing the Siberian resources themselves.

Logically and rationally I would tend to agree. There's no natural resources to speak about, and although Ventspils and Liepāja are ice-free ports and Riga quite large one, they're indeed not at all that strategically important as they used to be.

However, Putin himself regards disintegration of Soviet Union as the "greatest geopolitical catastrophe of twentieth century." They are quite butthurt about Baltic states, and Putin is trying to channel Peter the Great who did win Riga for Russia from Kingdom of Sweden among other historic heroes. His designated clown and nominally opponent Zhirinovsky once suggested to install gigantic radioactive waste blowers on Latvian border. Hate isn't rational.

Russian invasion in Georgia haven't any much other sense than "protecting Russian speakers" either. Well, there was a bit of civil war situation, so it's probably a bit different. Crimea at least had clear strategic objectives, they couldn't tolerate NATO ships in Sevastopol (and draw a circle around Crimea on the globe, it is a fucking great strategic war base). Many here believed that once they done with Ukraine, we're next, makes it any sense or not.

Also, the latest large scale wargames they played was area denial of Baltic Sea. They repetition the ground invasion quite regularly. Then we pull counter games coordinating several dozens of military organizations from around the world in a single event. They say, hardly anyone else do anything alike. It's all good fun as long its games.

As long as the price is too great, they won't do anything too stupid, one might hope.

Actually, it makes much more sense to try to win political influence in an EU country, and they certainly are trying that too.

 

[Aglaopheme]

Just when you thought things couldn’t get any crazier:


The US just joined Russia to veto a UN Security Council resolution sponsored by our former European allies — France, Germany, Belgium, the UK and Poland — condemning Turkey's invasion of Syria.


https://www.dailysabah.com/war-on-t...eys-op-in-syria/amp?__twitter_impression=true

 

[bigsly]

Just when I and my fellow emotionally hyperbolics thought things couldn’t get any crazier:

Fixed your post for actual accuracy. Yw.

You're a perfect example why hysterical people, fueled primarily by partisan feeling, should never be eligible for any public office higher than kindergarten cafeteria monitor.

 

[DeluxAuto]

Fixed your post for actual accuracy. Yw.

You're a perfect example why hysterical people, fueled primarily by partisan feeling, should never be eligible for any public office higher than kindergarten cafeteria monitor.

Did she kick your dog or something? You're a creepy stalker.

 

[Aglaopheme]

Did she kick your dog or something? You're a creepy stalker.

Poor eyesore is having a bad week.

It’s really amusing to watch him try and tell me about what is happening in my backyard and trying to school me on the FEC when I was the Treasurer for a national committee and therefore real with the FEC and campaign finance all the time.