Gallup: Tea Party support dwindles to near-record low

[julybaby04]

Generally speaking, Christians believe Jesus of Nazareth was the Messiah. Since this part of Mormon doctrine, they are Christians. There are many differences with main stream sects, but that is the bottom line.

I would agree and disagree with this. They may believe that Jesus was the Messiah, but they lack understanding of who God is.

They may have aspects, but not all.

 

[julybaby04]

So the polls were rock solid after all.

Except you just said they weren't. Which is it? It can't be both.

I believe I said that the polls may be correct, but it may not truly reflect everyone's opinion. Actually, I would think that is probably true for ALL polls. There is no way everyone can be asked their opinion, and if a poll chooses to skew it a certain way (which most do, on both sides), then they know which states to call, etc.

 

[RobDownSouth]

I believe I said that the polls may be correct, but it may not truly reflect everyone's opinion. Actually, I would think that is probably true for ALL polls. There is no way everyone can be asked their opinion, and if a poll chooses to skew it a certain way (which most do, on both sides), then they know which states to call, etc.

Nate Silver of 538 emphatically disproved that "all polls are biased" hypothesis in the last election. It's simply not true.

 

[KingOrfeo]

I believe I said that the polls may be correct, but it may not truly reflect everyone's opinion. Actually, I would think that is probably true for ALL polls. There is no way everyone can be asked their opinion . . .

No, of course there isn't, but the state of public opinion can reliably be inferred from a statistical sample. Pollsters know this, and they know how many people they need to poll, and by what means, to get a reliable sample.

 

[julybaby04]

Nate Silver of 538 emphatically disproved that "all polls are biased" hypothesis in the last election. It's simply not true.

Well, if you believe that the media is not bias...at all....ever, then perhaps someone could say the polls are not bias.

I guess different way to look at it is that people could answer a question in a certain way, to get the optimal result, based on how the question was asked.

For example, there was a poll out recently that said something like 85% did not want Congress being exempt from Obamacare. That is probably true, but the person sharing the poll said this was not indicative of whether the people being polled wanted Obamacare at all. That was not asked.

So, it all depends on the question.....that is all I am saying.

 

[landslider2000]

Geography, natural resources, etc certainly played a role in America's development.

But immigrants came from Europe for freedom, lower taxes, more capitalism, more opportunity.

The notion that America enjoys progress only to the extent it emulates European socialized medicine, high taxes, central control, etc isn't sound.

 

[julybaby04]

No, of course there isn't, but the state of public opinion can reliably be inferred from a statistical sample. Pollsters know this, and they know how many people they need to poll, and by what means, to get a reliable sample.

I would agree....but I would also add, they know what people in what states to include to get the answer they are looking for.

For example, if they wanted a high approval rating for the POTUS, the outer states would be polled. If they wanted a lower, the inner states would be polled.

I am not saying they are not trying to be honest, always, but I would never take a poll at face value, especially from the main stream media which is known to be very liberally bias.

 

[RobDownSouth]

Well, if you believe that the media is not bias...at all....ever, then perhaps someone could say the polls are not bias.

I guess different way to look at it is that people could answer a question in a certain way, to get the optimal result, based on how the question was asked.

For example, there was a poll out recently that said something like 85% did not want Congress being exempt from Obamacare. That is probably true, but the person sharing the poll said this was not indicative of whether the people being polled wanted Obamacare at all. That was not asked.

So, it all depends on the question.....that is all I am saying.

We're not talking about media bias. As long as Fox News exists, there will be media bias.

We are talking about statistical bias and statistical certainty, which is a completely different thing.

There are things called "confidence intervals" which expand exponentially with the number of people being polled. It judges the reliability of an estimate. Nothing is ever "always" 100% (but I doubt even YOU beat your children if they brought home a test with a grade of less than 100).

95 to 99% certainty is the generally accepted standard for polling. That's roughly 1000 people, if I recall.

Poll enough people and you can get a reasonable approximation for a candidate or issue. I understand the wording of a question is important (i.e "Do you support a woman's right to make decisions regarding her own body?" vs. "Do you support a woman's right to kill her babby?") but on things like Obamacare, the issue questions are pretty cut-and-dry.

 

[julybaby04]

We're not talking about media bias. As long as Fox News exists, there will be media bias.

We are talking about statistical bias and statistical certainty, which is a completely different thing.

There are things called "confidence intervals" which expand exponentially with the number of people being polled. It judges the reliability of an estimate. Nothing is ever "always" 100% (but I doubt even YOU beat your children if they brought home a test with a grade of less than 100).

95 to 99% certainty is the generally accepted standard for polling. That's roughly 1000 people, if I recall.

Poll enough people and you can get a reasonable approximation for a candidate or issue. I understand the wording of a question is important (i.e "Do you support a woman's right to make decisions regarding her own body?" vs. "Do you support a woman's right to kill her babby?") but on things like Obamacare, the issue questions are pretty cut-and-dry.

Actually even in obamacare it is not. There have been a few polls that I have seen that x% approves and Y% disapproves. Whomever is talking about the polls also say that if the y% is high that that number also includes those who want obamacare to go even further.

(and CNN and MSN are just as much or MORE bias than Fox could ever be)

I like the y% being large, but even those polls are not telling the true story.

 

[RobDownSouth]

Actually even in obamacare it is not. There have been a few polls that I have seen that x% approves and Y% disapproves. Whomever is talking about the polls also say that if the y% is high that that number also includes those who want obamacare to go even further.

(and CNN and MSN are just as much or MORE bias than Fox could ever be)

I like the y% being large, but even those polls are not telling the true story.

On the Obamacare question we agree: there are three separate and distinct factions in this country:

• Those who do not like Obamacare, period (that includes you, I think it is safe to say)
• Those who like Obamacare
• Those who do not like Obamacare because they do not think it goes far enough (i.e. they want single-payer)

This threeway split allows for interesting interpretation depending on your political bias.

People like me would group items 2 and 3 together to prove that Obamacare is better than the old way of insuring people.

People like you would group items 1 and 3 together to prove that the majority of Americans dislike Obamacare.

 

[KingOrfeo]

I would agree....but I would also add, they know what people in what states to include to get the answer they are looking for.

For example, if they wanted a high approval rating for the POTUS, the outer states would be polled. If they wanted a lower, the inner states would be polled.

They could, but it would be against their professional ethics. What makes you think they do it?

I am not saying they are not trying to be honest, always, but I would never take a poll at face value, especially from the main stream media which is known to be very liberally bias.

Bear in mind that the "mainstream media" includes Fox News, the Washington Times, and the New York Post, to which there are no comparable LW analogs. Not even MSNBC is liberal or LW the way Fox is conservative and RW, and the Washington Post is no liberal counterpart to the Times. The nearest lefty equivalents to Fox, etc., would be Democracy Now! radio or Mother Jones or The Nation, which are not part of the mainstream media.

 

[julybaby04]

On the Obamacare question we agree: there are three separate and distinct factions in this country:

• Those who do not like Obamacare, period (that includes you, I think it is safe to say)
• Those who like Obamacare
• Those who do not like Obamacare because they do not think it goes far enough (i.e. they want single-payer)

This threeway split allows for interesting interpretation depending on your political bias.

People like me would group items 2 and 3 together to prove that Obamacare is better than the old way of insuring people.

People like you would group items 1 and 3 together to prove that the majority of Americans dislike Obamacare.

Oh my goodness, I think we actually agree .....

 

[julybaby04]

They could, but it would be against their professional ethics. What makes you think they do it?

That is funny to me. I would question if the media have ethics....



Bear in mind that the "mainstream media" includes Fox News, the Washington Times, and the New York Post, to which there are no comparable LW analogs. Not even MSNBC is liberal or LW the way Fox is conservative and RW, and the Washington Post is no liberal counterpart to the Times. The nearest lefty equivalents to Fox, etc., would be Democracy Now! radio or Mother Jones or The Nation, which are not part of the mainstream media.

I would agree that Fox News is Conservative Leaning. There are radio shows such as Rush Limbaugh, Hannity, etc that are Conservative as well. There are others on TV that are more Conservative, ie, Glenn Beck. But I would say for the majority of media outlets, almost all lean Liberal. Most Large Newspapers lean liberal, not all....just most.

CNN and MSNBC are absolutely in the liberal Court (i.e. Candy Crowley and her VERY BIAS turn at moderator of a Presidential Debate). I would think that most are liberal leaning simply because they do news stories from everywhere. They hear people complaining about how they don't have enough, how corporations are do this or that to them, how they need more in their lives, how unfair life is.....etc. Of course their views become left-slanted. They want their guy to win....whatever it takes.

I would offer this, if they were truly unbias.....any media, then I would offer up that they look beyond party lines, look beyond the gender of a person, look beyond the color of a person's skin.... and look DIRECTLY at the facts when things happen (i.e. Benghazi, NSA, etc)....AND not be afraid to criticize when it is truly due. To search for the actual facts and not just what the talking points are, if that happened then I would begin to trust in unbias media.

Until then, the bias is blatant and so therefore any poll or any such thing will be viewed through the glasses of scepticism.

 

[mercury14]

July, why do you keep equating polls with news networks. Fox News, CNN, MSNBC, etc don't do polls, they're all done by professional polling firms. Their methods are transparent.