Who is willing to admit the Obama stimulus was a failure?

[WriterDom]

Now they are talking about doing another? Isn't that like getting kicked by a mule twice?

 

[MisterSir]

I haven't paid any attention to this because we've got enough problems with our economy alone, but it's telling that I thought this topic was going to be posted by one of the General Board trolls looking to stir up shit elsewhere for a change. Make of that what you will.

 

[WriterDom]

I haven't paid any attention to this because we've got enough problems with our economy alone, but it's telling that I thought this topic was going to be posted by one of the General Board trolls looking to stir up shit elsewhere for a change. Make of that what you will.

Just because the press kisses his ass doesn't mean that I have to.

 

[rosco rathbone]

It was a failure because it was too little, too late.

 

[WriterDom]

Some of it is just ridiculous to begin with. Building tunnels for turtles and increasing the toad population. We could have given every man, woman, and child 2800 dollars. 14,000 dollars for a family of 5 overnight.

 

[Netzach]

It was a failure because it was too little, too late.

QFT.


Yeah, wow, three months of policy can't undo 34 years of fuckery.


I blame Carter actually.

If he hadn't sucked so horribly horribly bad, none of the rest of it could have happened. Carter's suckass set the stage for all this.

 

[Netzach]

Some of it is just ridiculous to begin with. Building tunnels for turtles and increasing the toad population. We could have given every man, woman, and child 2800 dollars. 14,000 dollars for a family of 5 overnight.

blah blah blah John McCain ancient red pen.

Do you know how much bigger things you have to worry about? And why are we blaming the gubmint when you should be asking the crooks who walked off with the trough where the fuck your money is?

 

[Netzach]

Republican Party Fail supplement.

I caught a snippet of my fine governor's address to a republican party audience or some such and I was very impressed with the following.

He said something to the effect of "if we love free market so much, we should be applying these principles to our own party. Right now, we have a product, that no one wants to buy."

He really should get some kind of strategist job, but be allowed nowhere near any actual policy. I think he's the only figurehead at this moment who can talk to an audience of anyone other than old white men and not have to make an apology statement ten minutes later.

 

[Marquis]

Nice topic.

I've tried to stay fairly informed on this and I honestly don't know how I feel one day to the next.

There's little doubt that we avoided even more serious pain than we are already dealing with, but it remains to be seen how this will play out in the future.

My feeling is that this will polarize people for a long time, and for this reason...

I think we chose between dealing with a VERY intense economic downturn for a shorter time, with more dramatic reconstruction giving birth to a renewed economy

vs.

mitigating the pain quite a bit but prolonging the recovery A LOT.


How you feel about those two options is going to depend a lot on your personal philosophy but also your financial situation and the industry you work in. Sort of like, the average depth of a river may be four feet, but that doesn't help a six foot man cross it safely if it's 20 feet deep at it's deepest point.

Does that make sense?

I'm trying to say that we made it possible for more people to survive the crossing, but it's going to take us, in my opinion, 5-10 times longer than it would've otherwise.

 

[Netzach]

Nice topic.

I've tried to stay fairly informed on this and I honestly don't know how I feel one day to the next.

There's little doubt that we avoided even more serious pain than we are already dealing with, but it remains to be seen how this will play out in the future.

My feeling is that this will polarize people for a long time, and for this reason...

I think we chose between dealing with a VERY intense economic downturn for a shorter time, with more dramatic reconstruction giving birth to a renewed economy

vs.

mitigating the pain quite a bit but prolonging the recovery A LOT.


How you feel about those two options is going to depend a lot on your personal philosophy but also your financial situation and the industry you work in. Sort of like, the average depth of a river may be four feet, but that doesn't help a six foot man cross it safely if it's 20 feet deep at it's deepest point.

Does that make sense?

I'm trying to say that we made it possible for more people to survive the crossing, but it's going to take us, in my opinion, 5-10 times longer than it would've otherwise.

I'm still with the economists who were projecting about a year at outset.

I think once consumer credit starts to flow again and it will based purely on how spoiled and optimistic we are, a lot of this will soften.

The unemployed smart people I know are starting to get some interviews. Some have even gotten jobs.

WOEZ ME I AM GOING TO BE PAYORXXING 4EVAH - eh not so much. I can handle an uptick on my federal tax return far better than I can handle the profit-taking that the insurers are doing in panic at this moment. Fuck 'em.

 

[Marquis]

I'm still with the economists who were projecting about a year at outset.

I think once consumer credit starts to flow again and it will based purely on how spoiled and optimistic we are, a lot of this will soften.

The unemployed smart people I know are starting to get some interviews. Some have even gotten jobs.

WOEZ ME I AM GOING TO BE PAYORXXING 4EVAH - eh not so much. I can handle an uptick on my federal tax return far better than I can handle the profit-taking that the insurers are doing in panic at this moment. Fuck 'em.

You're losing me here.

A year for what?

There's no doubt that we're seeing some positive signs, or at least fewer negative signs, but the underlying factors that drive the US economy forward are nowhere to be found.

Wait until inflation comes, mark my words ladies and gents because I will be referencing this very thread when the day comes:

we will see double digit inflation at some point in the next decade,

Marquis has spoken.

 

[Netzach]

You're losing me here.

A year for what?

My bad. A year for the average mortgaged and laid off middle-aged white collar smalltime to feel less pain in his life than he does at this point. I'm not looking at this like a macroeconomist, because my day depends on how many people choose to buy a small octopus shaped piece of brass for 20 bucks, and the answer is: enough.

There's no doubt that we're seeing some positive signs, or at least fewer negative signs, but the underlying factors that drive the US economy forward are nowhere to be found.

Wait until inflation comes, mark my words ladies and gents because I will be referencing this very thread when the day comes:

we will see double digit inflation at some point in the next decade,

Marquis has spoken.

I think you know much more about this than I do, but I think if overeager fed-rate tinkering can be resisted this will not necessarily doom us to total 70's redux. They got way way way too happy to fuck with the fed rate.


What are the underlying factors driving the US economy?Where I sit, they're consumer credit, optimism, pixie dust, and foreign manufacturing. Battered, but ever present.

I also think everyone has this really funny Wall St. recollection of the 80's but forgets that they were actually pretty grim for a lot of people. Anyone here graduate and look for a job in the 80's? Does this feel deja-vu like?

 

[rosco rathbone]

Interesting article about the whole ball of wax:

http://www.kyklosproductions.com/posts/index.php?p=85

 

[MisterSir]

but the underlying factors that drive the US economy forward are nowhere to be found.

Wait until inflation comes, mark my words ladies and gents because I will be referencing this very thread when the day comes:

we will see double digit inflation at some point in the next decade,

Marquis has spoken.

I disagree but I'm curious as to what the "underlying factors" are and why you think inflation's going to spike so. No sarcasm here, I'm genuinely trying to learn.

Also, this is why I hate discussing the economy. It hammers home just how little I really know.

 

[Netzach]

Interesting article about the whole ball of wax:

http://www.kyklosproductions.com/posts/index.php?p=85

"Briefly, as I said before, jobs and restoring consumption are the key."

I'm no economist, but yeah, what he said.

However we're not going to be doing a giant Dust Bowl saga. It's just not going to happen like that - I don't think that's realistic. RR, you're supposed to be under 10 feet of water right now from some projections, you know. The fact that you're not doesn't mean Global Warming isn't a problem, it's just not a Bruckheimer film.

 

[rosco rathbone]

"Briefly, as I said before, jobs and restoring consumption are the key."

I'm no economist, but yeah, what he said.

Long story short, he thinks the bank bailouts will achieve nothing except to enrich the already rich. The money would be better spent putting people to work directly.

 

[rosco rathbone]

"Briefly, as I said before, jobs and restoring consumption are the key."

I'm no economist, but yeah, what he said.

However we're not going to be doing a giant Dust Bowl saga. It's just not going to happen like that - I don't think that's realistic. RR, you're supposed to be under 10 feet of water right now from some projections, you know.

I've got my fingers crossed. We are going to be building those mega-flood control barriers at prevailing wage.

Lotta rebar in that shit.

 

[Netzach]

Long story short, he thinks the bank bailouts will achieve nothing except to enrich the already rich. The money would be better spent putting people to work directly.

Yep. But you can thank your local congress critters for making sure that doesn't happen, most of you.

Work doing what? That's why this energy revamp and toad highway shit isn't so freaking funny. You have to start *some*thing.

But the latest kool-aid around the Republican water coolers is that the New Deal actually made the depression worse and longer, the WPA and CCC are to be blamed.

 

[Netzach]

I've got my fingers crossed. We are going to be building those mega-flood control barriers at prevailing wage.

Lotta rebar in that shit.

Right. Or we can plug our ears and refuse to pass the debt to our children and the rich can move to higher ground and the poor will be happy to drown as long as their taxes don't go up one penny.

 

[Marquis]

My bad. A year for the average mortgaged and laid off middle-aged white collar smalltime to feel less pain in his life than he does at this point. I'm not looking at this like a macroeconomist, because my day depends on how many people choose to buy a small octopus shaped piece of brass for 20 bucks, and the answer is: enough.

Hey man, for all the water cooler conversation that this recession has given us, there are a lot of people who have dealt with more direct pain from Michael Jackson's death. Everyone knows someone who has been affected and most people know someone who know someone who has been ruined by it, but for a lot of people the "outrage" is purely intellectual and empathetic.

I on the other hand lost my awesome finance job following a shady government-abetted big bank takeover, owe considerably more on the home I own than it's worth and am drowning in debt totaling halfway towards 7-digits while searching for work in an industry that shed 20% of its employees in the last 52 weeks.


But that's all neither here nor there. What's going to really suck is when milk starts costing 5 bucks a carton and no one is floored by the awesome opportunities arising that compensate for that. God knows what gas is going to do. That's going to languish on for a while, hopefully some good music will be made during this time for us all to kick it with.

 

[rosco rathbone]

Right. Or we can plug our ears and refuse to pass the debt to our children and the rich can move to higher ground and the poor will be happy to drown as long as their taxes don't go up one penny.

No higher ground here

 

[Marquis]

I think you know much more about this than I do, but I think if overeager fed-rate tinkering can be resisted this will not necessarily doom us to total 70's redux. They got way way way too happy to fuck with the fed rate.


What are the underlying factors driving the US economy?Where I sit, they're consumer credit, optimism, pixie dust, and foreign manufacturing. Battered, but ever present.

I also think everyone has this really funny Wall St. recollection of the 80's but forgets that they were actually pretty grim for a lot of people. Anyone here graduate and look for a job in the 80's? Does this feel deja-vu like?

I don't know that I know much more about this than you do. I can tell you that I work with this every day and every day I hear something that surprises the hell out of me. I know many consultants with hundreds of millions of client assets under management who could probably surprise you with what they don't know, there is just A LOT to fucking know here and when speaking on such broad terms any persons opinion is as valid as any others.

I think all the underlying factors you listed are good, but what I still see missing is the ingenuity and the innovation, and quite frankly the happiness. American workers work too hard for too low a quality of life. I think we have 1/3 the average time off that they do in Europe, and what do we get in exchange for that? Bigger cars with bigger cup holders for our bigger sodas?

Don't people want more than that? I think they do.

And what have we done recently that's really fucking shit up? Where's the internet, where's the personal computer, where's the fucking flying cars?

A nation cannot live on iphones alone!

 

[Netzach]

Hey man, for all the water cooler conversation that this recession has given us, there are a lot of people who have dealt with more direct pain from Michael Jackson's death. Everyone knows someone who has been affected and most people know someone who know someone who has been ruined by it, but for a lot of people the "outrage" is purely intellectual and empathetic.

I on the other hand lost my awesome finance job following a shady government-abetted big bank takeover, owe considerably more on the home I own than it's worth and am drowning in debt totaling halfway towards 7-digits while searching for work in an industry that shed 20% of its employees in the last 52 weeks.


But that's all neither here nor there. What's going to really suck is when milk starts costing 5 bucks a carton and no one is floored by the awesome opportunities arising that compensate for that. God knows what gas is going to do. That's going to languish on for a while, hopefully some good music will be made during this time for us all to kick it with.

I'm honestly all ears. I'm wondering what you think could be done to keep that from happening that isn't happening.

 

[Netzach]

I don't know that I know much more about this than you do. I can tell you that I work with this every day and every day I hear something that surprises the hell out of me. I know many consultants with hundreds of millions of client assets under management who could probably surprise you with what they don't know, there is just A LOT to fucking know here and when speaking on such broad terms any persons opinion is as valid as any others.

I think all the underlying factors you listed are good, but what I still see missing is the ingenuity and the innovation, and quite frankly the happiness. American workers work too hard for too low a quality of life. I think we have 1/3 the average time off that they do in Europe, and what do we get in exchange for that? Bigger cars with bigger cup holders for our bigger sodas?

Don't people want more than that? I think they do.

And what have we done recently that's really fucking shit up? Where's the internet, where's the personal computer, where's the fucking flying cars?

A nation cannot live on iphones alone!

OMG, this is totally how I feel about it. We used to say "meeeh but in Sweden you have 13% unemployyyyment" guess what we do now! And we did then, because we fuck with how unemployment even gets reported!

It's the lack of pixie dust. As idiotic as that sounds.

 

[Marquis]

I disagree but I'm curious as to what the "underlying factors" are and why you think inflation's going to spike so. No sarcasm here, I'm genuinely trying to learn.

Also, this is why I hate discussing the economy. It hammers home just how little I really know.

Economics is, I think, a lot like medicine. There are still doctors out there that think cervical cancer couldn't be caused by an std because that's what they were taught. New shit comes out every day that casts doubt on what everyone thinks they know and most shit no one understands. Super nerdy researchers that cut mice up all day know WAY more about respiration than the average nurse ever will but if you start choking at a dinner party you better hope you got an RN at your table.

Is this making any sense?

Anyway, a short lesson on inflation.

Inflation refers to the relative price of goods and services across a very broad spectrum in the economy. While there are lots of factors that control the individual prices of things, not the least of which is supply and demand; prices at a broad level are chiefly controlled by the money supply; that is how much money there actually is out there.

Because the population and the economy in general is constantly (we would prefer) growing, it is necessary for the money supply to grow as well. When the money supply does not keep up with economic growth, we have deflation, which curiously enough is what we're dealing with currently. When the money supply grows faster than the economy, we have inflation (or excess inflation), a reduced purchasing power of our currency that results in a weaker position with our trading partners, the dilution of savings and the general destabilization of the structures that hold our economy together. Some inflation can be a good thing because sometimes we need a bit of flexibility but when taken too far it quickly creates a situation where businesses or enterprises can't create traction with the economy or take footing, ie nothing gets accomplished.

Now, if you're still with me, you're probably wondering what controls the money supply? Well, again, a lot of factors. Mostly the government, through the manipulation of certain interest rates and the loans that they give to..... well... anyone, in the form of treasury bills, bonds and notes.

You see, let's say the government, any government actually, federal or municipal, agrees to make some kind of payment. Like when Barack offers 700 billion dollars to various activities. They don't just pull out a government debitcard and hope the balance in the government checking account will cover it. They sell loans with a variety of maturity dates and interest rates that people buy because they want to earn interest and they know the government will pay. Then the government collects taxes and hopes it has enough to make all the payments it needs to make to all the people it owes money, most of whom are Chinese.

But the government can do something you or I can't do when we're strapped for cash. It can make more, this used to be called printing free money that ain't worth shit but these days they call it "quantitative easing". Increased money supply.

The federal government also manipulates the money supply by controlling how much money banks must have on reserve. When you deposit money into the bank, the bank now has money it can lend out to other people. How much money it can lend out as a proportion to how much it has on deposit is the reserve requirement and it is set by the federal government.

When the credit markets freeze like they have been recently, the government lowers the reserve requirement so banks can lend more and the velocity of money (how fast and how much money changes hands) increases. A side effect of this is that money lent out is redeposited and lent out again, creating a multiplier effect that greatly increases the money supply.

Hope that was helpful, I don't know much but I enjoy sharing what I do know and used to wonder about myself.

Work doing what? That's why this energy revamp and toad highway shit isn't so freaking funny. You have to start *some*thing.

This is true. John Maynard Keynes used to say when an economy is in recession, government should pay one man to dig a hole and another to fill it up.