Pandemic?

[xssve]

Outbreak of Swine flu has killed 68 people in Mexico, 72 sick in New York, Eight possibles in California and Texas, no deaths reported yet.

It's apparently some kind of stew, with strains of Swine flu and human influenza virus that makes it transmissible between humans.

John the Author had a tread on the periodicity of viral influenza mutations not too long ago, I'd appreciate any updates.

 

[xssve]

MEXICO CITY – A unique strain of swine flu is the suspected killer of dozens of people in Mexico, where authorities closed schools, museums, libraries and theaters in the capital on Friday to try to contain an outbreak that has spurred concerns of a global flu epidemic.

The worrisome new virus — which combines genetic material from pigs, birds and humans in a way researchers have not seen before — also sickened at least eight people in Texas and California, though there have been no deaths in the U.S.

"We are very, very concerned," World Health Organization spokesman Thomas Abraham said. "We have what appears to be a novel virus and it has spread from human to human ... It's all hands on deck at the moment."

The outbreak caused alarm in Mexico, where more than 1,000 people have been sickened. Residents of the capital donned surgical masks and authorities ordered the most sweeping shutdown of public gathering places in a quarter century. President Felipe Calderon met with his Cabinet Friday to coordinate Mexico's response.

U.S. health officials said the outbreak is not yet a reason for alarm in the United States. The five people sickened in California and three in Texas have all recovered.

It's unclear how the eight, who became ill between late March and mid-April, contracted the virus because none were in contact with pigs, which is how people usually catch swine flu. And only a few were in contact with each other.

CDC officials described the virus as having a unique combination of gene segments not seen before in people or pigs. The bug contains human virus, avian virus from North America and pig viruses from North America, Europe and Asia. It may be completely new, or it may have been around for a while and was only detected now through improved testing and surveillance, CDC officials said.

The most notorious flu pandemic is thought to have killed at least 40 million people worldwide in 1918-19. Two other, less deadly flu pandemics struck in 1957 and 1968.

AP Mexico swine flu deaths spur global epidemic fears

My youngest was sick all last week with these symptoms, didn't think anything about it, there was only a little vomiting, dehydration is the thing to worry about.

The 1918 epidemic ended WWI.

 

[JAMESBJOHNSON]

XSSVE

Too bad Obama spent all our money reviving Wall Street. Youre on your own.

 

[shereads]

I so wish I had not just read "The Great Influenza."

It tells you everything about killer mutant flu pandemics except what you can do to avoid one.

 

[JAMESBJOHNSON]

You cant avoid them. They sweep civilization killing everyone susceptible to the virus. Eventually the virus runs out of victims.

 

[Trinique_Fire]

My first reaction to this is to STAY IN THE HOUSE. I have everything I need here. Hell, my daughter won't run out of diapers for another two or three months. I have trouble leaving the house as it is for anything longer than a grocery trip or appointment.

My second reaction? Don't eat pork.

 

[Vermilion]

From the CDC website

Can people catch swine flu from eating pork?
No. Swine influenza viruses are not transmitted by food. You can not get swine influenza from eating pork or pork products. Eating properly handled and cooked pork and pork products is safe. Cooking pork to an internal temperature of 160°F kills the swine flu virus as it does other bacteria and viruses.

How does swine flu spread?
Influenza viruses can be directly transmitted from pigs to people and from people to pigs. Human infection with flu viruses from pigs are most likely to occur when people are in close proximity to infected pigs, such as in pig barns and livestock exhibits housing pigs at fairs. Human-to-human transmission of swine flu can also occur. This is thought to occur in the same way as seasonal flu occurs in people, which is mainly person-to-person transmission through coughing or sneezing of people infected with the influenza virus. People may become infected by touching something with flu viruses on it and then touching their mouth or nose.

 

[snap1415]

If you see a coughing pig, turn upwind and run as fast as your little legs will carry you.

 

[Liar]

From the CDC website:

Swine influenza viruses are not transmitted by food. You can not get swine influenza from eating pork or pork products. Eating properly handled and cooked pork and pork products is safe. Cooking pork to an internal temperature of 160°F kills the swine flu virus as it does other bacteria and viruses.

B-but, if I can't eat my pigs raw, what then am I gonna do?

 

[Trinique_Fire]

If you see a coughing pig, turn upwind and run as fast as your little legs will carry you.

 

[SeaCat]

I've been following this since the first stories cropped up in the news over a week ago. I've printed out articles and posted them in work and watched as they vanished from the bulletin board.

This morning when I saw this story I again printed it and hung it up in work. Soon after I saw one of the I.D. (Infectious Disease) M.D.'s on the floor and out of curiousity asked him about it. He aske me what I was talking about so I showed him the article. He was surprised to say the least as he had heard nothing about it. He took off for his office.

A shot while later he came back and told me there was nothing in his in-box from the state but he did find some interesting information when he visited the C.D.C. Website. He then thanked me for pointing this out to him.

I'm sure I'll be seeing a lot more information come Monday.

Cat

 

[john-the-author]

Outbreak of Swine flu has killed 68 people in Mexico, 72 sick in New York, Eight possibles in California and Texas, no deaths reported yet.

It's apparently some kind of stew, with strains of Swine flu and human influenza virus that makes it transmissible between humans.

John the Author had a tread on the periodicity of viral influenza mutations not too long ago, I'd appreciate any updates.

I'm doing a joint presentation with a couple of medical experts to a whole bunch of Fortune 100 execs this coming week on business continuity during pandemic. And my co-author and I are going to be having my agent peddle our next book on the subject this summer.

We don't need terrorists to be spreading virus; in fact, it's unlikely that they've got the 'right' virus to spread. But it's evolving, we know that. This coming flu season is the most likely, but it could be any time in the next few years.

John

 

[Guest]

I'm doing a joint presentation with a couple of medical experts to a whole bunch of Fortune 100 execs this coming week on business continuity during pandemic. And my co-author and I are going to be having my agent peddle our next book on the subject this summer.

We don't need terrorists to be spreading virus; in fact, it's unlikely that they've got the 'right' virus to spread. But it's evolving, we know that. This coming flu season is the most likely, but it could be any time in the next few years.

John

I think I'll reread The Stand.

 

[popcorn2721]

Outbreak of Swine flu has killed 68 people in Mexico, 72 sick in New York, Eight possibles in California and Texas, no deaths reported yet.

It's apparently some kind of stew, with strains of Swine flu and human influenza virus that makes it transmissible between humans.

John the Author had a tread on the periodicity of viral influenza mutations not too long ago, I'd appreciate any updates.

We all know this aint shit. You know that we are really fucked when the dead start coming back from the "dead".
http://www.cloudzilla.net/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/z.jpg

 

[john-the-author]

We all know this aint shit. You know that we are really fucked when the dead start coming back from the "dead".
http://www.cloudzilla.net/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/z.jpg

I do like that photo, Popcorn.

 

[NoJo]

From my myopic viewpoint my main concern is whether I'll have to change my month-long driving trip plans in June -- originally taking in all the southernmost states in the U.S. I can easily imagine some kind of travel restrictions being put in place in order to contain its spread.

Of course If it becomes pandemic then one would be equally likely to catch it anywhere.

 

[freshface]

From my myopic viewpoint my main concern is whether I'll have to change my month-long driving trip plans in June -- originally taking in all the southernmost states in the U.S. I can easily imagine some kind of travel restrictions being put in place in order to contain its spread.

Of course If it becomes pandemic then one would be equally likely to catch it anywhere.

That's unlikely. There are confirmed cases now in California, Texas, and Kansas, and the tests in New York are looking like they'll be positive too. This is already too big to be controlled by travel restrictions, so you should be good for the trip. Now whether the UK will let you back in again after...

 

[shereads]

From my myopic viewpoint my main concern is whether I'll have to change my month-long driving trip plans in June -- originally taking in all the southernmost states in the U.S. I can easily imagine some kind of travel restrictions being put in place in order to contain its spread.

Of course If it becomes pandemic then one would be equally likely to catch it anywhere.

It's not the car trip I'd be worried about, but the airports. Giant contagion factories.

BTW, the first U.S. cases include some New York students who visited Cancun during their spring break and became ill after returning home. Their symptoms haven't been serious.

 

[john-the-author]

Sent the proposal in to my agent just now for a book on preparing for pandemic. We'd planning on doing this in May, but things have taken a turn and it looks like now's the time.

Talked to one of my co-authors on this, who says that we'll know in 7-10 days if this is a pandemic threat and 30 days if this a pandemic. (Trust me, it'll be ALL over the news at that point.) It's too early to tell anything but it is worth noting that we normally have but 2 cases of swine flu per year in the US. This is a LOT of swine flu to have suddenly... and the H5N1 is indeed one of the strains that has the potential to be pandemic.

Soap and water, kids, lots and lots of soap and water. It's the single best preventive for getting exposed.

 

[DesertPirate]

My Mom's oldest sister became deaf because of the 1918-1920 flu outbreak.

 

[shereads]

My Mom's oldest sister became deaf because of the 1918-1920 flu outbreak.

Accounts of that pandemic in "The Great Influenza" are as horrific as science fiction. One problem at the outset was a lack of public awareness, due to a gag order on any news that might have a negative impact on the war effort.

Newspapers were officially discouraged from even hinting that there might be an epidemic illness. Eventually, it became obvious because bodies were piling up faster than they could be buried. In some of the worst-hit cities, people who were too ill to move their dead out to the street had no choice but just to cover the bodies with blankets, drag them into a spare room - or share their beds with them.

The origin of that flu has been traced to a Kansas military training barracks. It came to be called "Spanish Flu" only because it was first reported as an epidemic by a newspaper in Spain.

 

[john-the-author]

My Mom's oldest sister became deaf because of the 1918-1920 flu outbreak.

Very interesting. Probably cytokine damage.

Pneumonia and respiratory problems are frequently the cause of death from flu. One of the problems is that a pandemic-strength flu can cause permanent lung damage from the cytokine storm that happens.

 

[DesertPirate]

Accounts of that pandemic in "The Great Influenza" are as horrific as science fiction. One problem at the outset was a lack of public awareness, due to a gag order on any news that might have a negative impact on the war effort.

Newspapers were officially discouraged from even hinting that there might be an epidemic illness. Eventually, it became obvious because bodies were piling up faster than they could be buried. In some of the worst-hit cities, people who were too ill to move their dead out to the street had no choice but just to cover the bodies with blankets, drag them into a spare room - or share their beds with them.

The origin of that flu has been traced to a Kansas military training barracks. It came to be called "Spanish Flu" only because it was first reported as an epidemic by a newspaper in Spain.

She was in Clovis, NM

 

[OhMissScarlett]

I think I'll reread The Stand.

When the story starts, it's in the springtime. Usually I read it every few years in the spring, but I think I'll skip this year. My friend works for the CDC and assures me everything will be fine. I'm sure she'll still be re-assuring me when I'm in a glass room and she's on the other side of the window in a hazmat suit.

 

[john-the-author]

The stats that we have from the Spanish Flu suggest that 2-3% of the US population will die from this over 18-24 months, in waves of 6-9 months/cycle, with 3-4 cycles. This means that we'll see 6-12 million people dead and about 40% of the labor force unable to work at any one time.

One of the issues we're dealing with in the book are how to deal with bodies stacked up. We don't have that many crematorium spaces (~800,000/year, or maybe 1.5-1.75M if the crematoria are working 24/7) nor gravesites. Mass graves are going to be happening again (they did in 1917-1918). It won't be fun.