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Pandemics are more than just arithmetic computations.

Conager

Conager

¿Que? Cornelius!
Joined
Dec 2, 2014
Posts
18,282
I get that people want to track the "progress" of the disease for a sense of how imperiled they or loved ones may be. Being able to multiply by two and to notice the interval of time of (reported) cases doubling is meaningless. Being able to do the math(s) on the rate of increases of hospitilizations or deaths is only useful as a measure of a population's general increase in exposure.

Leaving aside the fact that the math is meaningless when you do not know who has been exposed or even who became infected from their exposure, there is a continuum for each contact in terms of exposure time and the viral load transmitted in any given exposure.

Infected does not mean equally infectious for each person or in any individual throughout their course of infection.

Good article for thinking about the degree of risk with each contact with an infected person being non-linear:

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/04/06/how-does-the-coronavirus-behave-inside-a-patient?
 
SpeareChucker said:
It's a chaotic system.





:shrug:
Click to expand...

Agreed.

A lot of discussion leaves out that there are any variables to consider, much less what some of them are.

I am definitely not isolating because that is not feasible in my line of work. I could, obviously, just not work and could afford to do so but that seems less than committed.

Somebody starts hacking up a lung, I'm calling actual, medical professionals.
 
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As a prepper...

;) ;)

I am enjoying the last laugh,
plus, they are still delivering to my door
and I can phone in and arrange a Walmart pickup.
This is golden, no reason to have to interact with people.

I am the new Hermit Kingdom!
Now, if I could just get the dachshunds to fear me...
 
My family were peppers long before prepping was a thing. When we lived all over the country my dad was involved in food processing so we always had cases of can goods around the place. Since the short Phil's and dented Kansas City brought home we're limited by the variety of whatever it is that particular plant or plants work canning it made sense to supplement with other things to make meals out of whatever it is that we had. That led to the mentality of saving through bulk purchases.

I haven't done it in any kind of organized way but if I turned an ankle or something I could probably not leave my house for months. He would be longer than except that I dropped my deep freeze off at my mom's years ago and haven't bothered to pick it up.
 
Ours too, but then I grew up of a generational family farm
and my grandparents lived through the Great Depression,
an episode which we seem bound and determined to reproduce.
 
Conager said:
I get that people want to track the "progress" of the disease for a sense of how imperiled they or loved ones may be. Being able to multiply by two and to notice the interval of time of (reported) cases doubling is meaningless. Being able to do the math(s) on the rate of increases of hospitilizations or deaths is only useful as a measure of a population's general increase in exposure.

Leaving aside the fact that the math is meaningless when you do not know who has been exposed or even who became infected from their exposure, there is a continuum for each contact in terms of exposure time and the viral load transmitted in any given exposure.

Infected does not mean equally infectious for each person or in any individual throughout their course of infection.

Good article for thinking about the degree of risk with each contact with an infected person being non-linear:

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/04/06/how-does-the-coronavirus-behave-inside-a-patient?
Click to expand...

I just had to quote "the math is meaningless."

Feel free to carry on with your conversation.
 
SpeareChucker said:
Ours too, but then I grew up of a generational family farm
and my grandparents lived through the Great Depression,
an episode which we seem bound and determined to reproduce.
Click to expand...

Pirate just thinking about starting a thread about the depression a remind set. My parents were born in the late 30s and so they inherited that mindset from there parents who had to be careful during the depression.

I think individuals and companies are pulling back much more quickly and they would have because all of us just livrd through the wonderful Obama green energy economy for the last 8 years before the Trump boom.
 
zipman said:
I just had to quote "the math is meaningless."

Feel free to carry on with your conversation.
Click to expand...

See there's your trouble- you can't read. I didn't say or imply that math is meaningless.

I pointed to a specific metric and explain why that particular metric is meaningless.
 
Conager said:
See there's your trouble- you can't read. I didn't say or imply that math is meaningless.

I pointed to a specific metric and explain why that particular metric is meaningless.
Click to expand...

Except that particular metric isn't meaningless at all.

But hey, this whole thing is just a hoax to bring down Trump anyway.

Coronavirus isn't any more dangerous than the regular flu, amiright?
 
zipman said:
Except that particular metric isn't meaningless at all.

But hey, this whole thing is just a hoax to bring down Trump anyway.

Coronavirus isn't any more dangerous than the regular flu, amiright?
Click to expand...

You don t know how math works, do you?
 
Conager said:
You don t know how math works, do you?
Click to expand...

Actually I think you're the one proving you don't know how "the maths" work and why scientists rely on the very ones you don't think matter.
 
zipman said:
Actually I think you're the one proving you don't know how "the maths" work and why scientists rely on the very ones you don't think matter.
Click to expand...

Oh, really? How do you solve for a variable when multiple variables are presently unknown? You can't, which is why they are modeling. Modeling is scientific wild-assed guessing which is only useful for getting a handle on best to worst case range based on a few, limited assumptions.. A range of possible values is not a solution, it is a series of possibilities.

Best estimate lately is that known infections represent less than 10% of all infections. How do you calculate lethality if you have no idea how many people are carrying the virus?

"Scientists" quite reasonably disagree on their various assumptions and the resultant range of possibilities.

None of which involve the sort of basic arithmetic calculations that I correctly point out are meaningless in the face of multiple unknowns.
 
SpeareChucker said:
No. I can tell you that based upon experience.
Click to expand...

But, but, SCIENTISTS use math so that means any ratio expressed on a daily countdown MEANS something, especially if displayed in a chart put together by the graphic design team at XYZ Media.
 
There is a difference, a big difference between solving
an equation of many variables and modeling.
Modeling is a way to express chaotic
systems, not to solve them.
Just sayin'.
 
How fake news works

Conager said:
See there's your trouble- you can't read. I didn't say or imply that math is meaningless.

I pointed to a specific metric and explain why that particular metric is meaningless.
Click to expand...


Just reading this thread and came to this warped quote out of context and the clarity of the response.

This is a good example of how fake news works. In some cases, like this one, I really think they don't mean to twist things. I think that things twist in their mind and come out illogical. In other words, I suspect that he really did think you were saying that math is meaningless.

After reading this they will probably think that I believe that people in China don't understand math because they are not as tall as other races.
 
SpeareChucker said:
Diffy-Q...



:eek: ;)
Click to expand...

I don't expect them to be able to solve an equation that I wouldn't even be able to gather all of the variables that should probably be in such an equation. You would think, though, that they could grasp the idea that what is (presently) unknown is far more important to be able to predict outcomes then what is (presently) unknown.

Given that the knowing the diagnosis doesn't help at all with treatment in this case and the "plan" is to duck and hide for a while, testing is almost pointless.

If I could wave a magic wand and gather knowledge of one thing, that would be an antibody test on a decent size sample of the population to have an idea on how many people have had it.

Yuuuge difference if that number is small versus that number is large. Before anyone had any idea that the virus was out in the world and could be transmitted between humans and some sort of a handle on the symptoms it could easily be part of what has been a fairly robust flu season.

So did we have a robusto flu season and a few Wu Flu cases or did we have a minor flu season and a bunch of Wu Flu?

If we knew that we would have a much better idea about what how we should proceed.
 
SusanHaack said:
I'm pretty sure they record and track numbers so the virus can be detected and contained. 🤷
Click to expand...

Oh?

.

How do you detect the and contain the virus in asymptomatic carriers? How do you detect and contain the virus during the long incubation period before any symptoms apear? How do you detect in contain the virus which in many ways mimics influenza in patients that you don't happen to test for the virus?

More testing with obviously help all of that and give a big enough data set to draw some reasonable conclusions.
 
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dp4shelly said:
Just reading this thread and came to this warped quote out of context and the clarity of the response.

This is a good example of how fake news works. In some cases, like this one, I really think they don't mean to twist things. I think that things twist in their mind and come out illogical. In other words, I suspect that he really did think you were saying that math is meaningless.

After reading this they will probably think that I believe that people in China don't understand math because they are not as tall as other races.
Click to expand...

It's hard to say. You got a group of people who don't tend to have very linear thought processes but they also tend to be pretty disingenuous with how they parse other people's statements. It could be that he only got that far in the sentence and just stopped reading or it could be that he deliberately only took that part of the sentence out of context because somehow or another he felt like that was some huge gotcha pull quote.

Either way it's not a particularly productive conversation. He certainly didn't learn anything and he certainly didn't convey anything that I could possibly have learned from.
 
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