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What happened to all of the doom and gloom economic threads?

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Frisco_Slug_Esq said:
Short-term?

When we get the health care tax, the green tax, the sunset of the Bush tax cuts, and the cost of never-ending war in Afghanistan, you think the dollar's gonna go up in value?

Plus next year, the dollars for votes program kicks into high gear as we get a lot of dollars facing fewer goods.

I'm looking at this morning's WSJ and the only enrichment I see is in the people who play with money for a living...
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Ain't it grand!
 
From Politico

But there’s a growing group of market professionals who see a different picture altogether. These self-styled China bears take the less popular view: that the much-vaunted Chinese economic miracle is nothing but a paper dragon. In fact, they argue that the Chinese have dangerously overheated their economy, building malls, luxury stores and infrastructure for which there is almost no demand, and that the entire system is teetering toward collapse.

A Chinese collapse, of course, would have profound effects on the United States, limiting China’s ability to buy U.S. debt and provoking unknown political changes inside the Chinese regime.

The China bears could be dismissed as a bunch of cranks and grumps except for one member of the group: hedge fund investor Jim Chanos.

Chanos, a billionaire, is the founder of the investment firm Kynikos Associates and a famous short seller — an investor who scrutinizes companies looking for hidden flaws and then bets against those firms in the market.

His most famous call came in 2001, when Chanos was one of the first to figure out that the accounting numbers presented to the public by Enron were pure fiction. Chanos began contacting Wall Street investment houses that were touting Enron’s stock. “We were struck by how many of them conceded that there was no way to analyze Enron but that investing in Enron was, instead, a ‘trust me’ story,” Chanos told a congressional committee in 2002.

Now, Chanos says he has found another “trust me” story: China. And he is moving to short the entire nation’s economy. Washington policymakers would do well to understand his argument, because if he’s right, the consequences will be felt here.

Chanos and the other bears point to several key pieces of evidence that China is heading for a crash.

First, they point to the enormous Chinese economic stimulus effort — with the government spending $900 billion to prop up a $4.3 trillion economy. “Yet China’s economy, for all the stimulus it has received in 11 months, is underperforming,” Gordon Chang, author of “The Coming Collapse of China,” wrote in Forbes at the end of October. “More important, it is unlikely that [third-quarter] expansion was anywhere near the claimed 8.9 percent.”

Chang argues that inconsistencies in Chinese official statistics — like the surging numbers for car sales but flat statistics for gasoline consumption — indicate that the Chinese are simply cooking their books. He speculates that Chinese state-run companies are buying fleets of cars and simply storing them in giant parking lots in order to generate apparent growth.

Another data point cited by the bears: overcapacity. For example, the Chinese already consume more cement than the rest of the world combined, at 1.4 billion tons per year. But they have dramatically ramped up their ability to produce even more in recent years, leading to an estimated spare capacity of about 340 million tons, which, according to a report prepared earlier this year by Pivot Capital Management, is more than the consumption in the U.S., India and Japan combined.

This, Chanos and others argue, is happening in sector after sector in the Chinese economy. And that means the Chinese are in danger of producing huge quantities of goods and products that they will be unable to sell.

The Pivot Capital report was extremely popular in Chanos’s office and concluded, “We believe the coming slowdown in China has the potential to be a similar watershed event for world markets as the reversal of the U.S. subprime and housing boom.”

And the bears also keep a close eye on anecdotal reports from the ground level in China, like a recent posting on a blog called The Peking Duck about shopping at Beijing’s “stunningly dysfunctional, catastrophic mall, called The Place.”

“I was shocked at what I saw,” the blogger wrote. “Fifty percent of the eateries in the basement were boarded up. The cheap food court, too, was gone, covered up with ugly blue boarding, making the basement especially grim and dreary. ... There is simply too much stuff, too many stores and no buyers.”
Click to expand...

Moanin' U_D...

Glad the 401K's still doing good...

;) ;)
 
Frisco_Slug_Esq said:
From Politico



Moanin' U_D...

Glad the 401K's still doing good...

;) ;)
Click to expand...

I've been saying for years that China is a paper tiger.

The paper being U.S. Obligations that can be canceled or modified, and the paper U.S. Consumers spend on Chinese goods.
 
Still hoping against hope that the economy fails I see Cap'n Echochamber. :rolleyes:

Dow is still hovering around 10K. Still no sign of inflation. The Consumer spending index hit a 2 year high in September, up 11.6% over the previous month. Real wages are up 4.8% from a year ago.

When do you suppose that commerical real estate crash is going to happen? Next month? 6 months from now? I keep hearing that it's coming from the "right", but no ideas as to when.

Hedging your bets?
 
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Ulaven_Demorte said:
Still hoping against hope that the economy fails I see Cap'n Echochamber. :rolleyes:

Dow is still hovering around 10K. Still no sign of inflation. The Consumer spending index hit a 2 year high in September, up 11.6% over the previous month. Real wages are up 4.8% from a year ago.

When do you suppose that commerical real estate crash is going to happen? Next month? 6 months from now? I keep hearing that it's coming from the "right", but no ideas as to when.

Hedging your bets?
Click to expand...

I just formed a company to serve as a limited partner in a local shopping center renovation. But - I'm in the DC 'burbs where there is lots of Obama-money that needs spent.
 


Christopher Dodd's proposal to remove regulatory oversight from the Federal Reserve is particularly troubling AND A VERY, VERY BAD IDEA. One of the major ideas guiding the governance of the Fed from the date of its creation until today was to keep control of both monetary policy and regulation OUT OF THE HANDS of meddling politicians.

Putting control of banking regulation in the hands of politicians ( most particularly, those who are completely and utterly clueless about banking— this means people like Barney Frank, Christopher Dodd, Barbara Boxer, Paul Sarbanes, Chuckie Schumer, Arlen Specter, "Bigmouth Babs" Mikulski ) is a recipe for disaster.

Anybody with any knowledge of banking knows that the industry periodically forgets the first rule of banking: Lend money to people who don't need it. It is a generational thing; every twenty years or so, a new generation learns that lesson the hard way.

• We were massively overleveraged. Deleveraging will take years (it took decades to become too leveraged).
• Federal deficits are massive and are currently at unsustainable levels. Even allowing for rapidly rising revenues in a recovering economy, there is too much on the government’s plate to be accomplished without large tax increases.
• Tax increases are coming. The impact of rising tax rates and deleveraging will certainly slow the sustainable growth rate of the economy.
• The dollar has fallen 7% so far this year, not too far from its average annual decline this decade. A falling dollar chases investment dollars overseas. With the highest unemployment rate in 25 years, creating new jobs is going to be tough with high taxes, more regulation, and a weak currency.
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So far, the government has effectively gained control of two banks (Citigroup and Bank of America), two car companies (GM and Chrysler), one auto finance company (GMAC), an insurance company (AIG) and two mortgage intermediaries (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac). While it is too early to judge whether these companies are better or worse off as a result of the government’s active intervention, the scorecard to date isn’t very good. Citigroup is still a cluttered mess trying to find a way to separate its good assets from its bad ones. Bank of America is searching for a new CEO. So far, it has gotten a few rejections. GM has emerged from bankruptcy and has an experienced non-executive CEO. But it can’t find a new CFO because of pay constraints. Chrysler is a complete mess that might not survive. AIG finally got a good CEO but he now threatens to leave due to overbearing constraints. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac executive suites have become revolving doors and both have needed more money and continue to do so. They currently operate with completely broken models.

Now the government wants to expand further. A 2,100 page health care bill and a 1,100 page financial reform package promise to become regulatory quagmires. Americans may not be able to travel overseas easily when they catch the flu but financial markets around the world will be more than willing to do business with Americans. Warren Buffett tries to buy good businesses run by good people and then let them alone. I can’t think of even one instance when Congressional intervention helped a company become more efficient or profitable.
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Emerson is one of the U.S.'s "Great Companies." The folks running this company are straight shooters. It is a shame to see what government regulation and policies have done to manufacturing in this country.

Virtually every entrepreneur I know has said essentially the same thing. Most of 'em are older now and their start-up days are in the past— but they all say the same thing:

"I'd never do it today. There are too many rules and regulations and too many ambulance chasers."


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

( Fair Use Excerpt )

Full story: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=a_EbBQyskKl0

Emerson’s Farr Says U.S. Is Destroying Manufacturing
By Will Daley

Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Emerson Electric Co. Chief Executive Officer David Farr said the U.S. government is hurting manufacturers with regulation and taxes and his company will continue to focus on growth overseas.

“Washington is doing everything in their manpower, capability, to destroy U.S. manufacturing,” Farr said today in Chicago at a Baird Industrial Outlook conference. “Cap and trade, medical reform, labor rules.”

Emerson, the maker of electrical equipment and InSinkErator garbage disposals with $20.9 billion in sales for the year ended September, will keep expanding in emerging markets, which represented 32 percent of revenue in 2009. About 36 percent of manufacturing is now in “best-cost countries” up from 21 percent in 2003, according to a slides accompanying his speech.

Farr, in his presentation, also said manufacturers are being hurt by taxes and regulation. He said companies will create jobs in India and China, “places where people want the products and where the governments welcome you to actually do something.”

Emerson has shed more than 20,000 jobs since the end of 2008 to lower expenses.

“What do you think I am going to do?” Farr asked. “I’m not going to hire anybody in the United States. I’m moving. They are doing everything possible to destroy jobs.”

******​
 
WASHINGTON - The Obama administration, under pressure to show it is serious about tackling the budget deficit, is seizing on an unusual target to showcase fiscal responsibility: the $700 billion financial rescue.

The administration wants to keep some of the unspent funds available for emergencies, but is considering setting aside a chunk for debt reduction, according to people familiar with the matter. It is also expected to lower the projected long-term cost of the program -- the amount it expects to lose -- to as little as $200 billion from $341 billion estimated in August.

The idea is still a matter of debate within the administration and it is unclear how much impact it would have on the nation's mounting deficit levels. Still, the potential move illustrates how the Obama administration is trying to find any way it can to bring down the deficit, which is turning into a political as well as an economic liability.
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http://www.foxnews.com/politics/200...iders-using-tarp-cut-deficit/?test=latestnews

In related news, Harry Reid want to tax employers and employees, but only the "rich..."

Re-arraingeing the deck chairs...

Who's "hoping?"

I think you are hoping that the economy is better than it really is...

Just so you don't have to admit how stupid you were to vote for a Marxist because you were blinded by hate...
__________________
Generally speaking we get the joke. We know that the free market is nonsense. We know that the whole point is to game the system, to beat the market, or at least find someone who will pay you a lot of money because they're convinced that there is a free lunch. We know this is largely about power, that it's an adults only, no limit game. We kind of agree with Mao that political power comes largely from the barrel of a gun. And we get it that if you want a friend, you should get a dog.
Ron Bloom
Car Czar
 
Until unemployment gets down to where it was during Bill Clinton's second term,
and median income adjusted for inflation exceeds Clinton's numbers, there is little
point in pretending that Obama is out of the woods on economic issues.

Reagan could survive a double digit recession, but he was a white man's candidate
in a white man's country.
 
( Fair Use Excerpt )
Full story:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=a9xbDq__Y7v4

Fed May Cause Next Crisis, Hong Kong’s Tsang Suggests
By Christopher Anstey and Michael Dwyer

Nov. 13 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve’s policy of keeping interest rates near zero is fueling a wave of speculative capital that may cause the next global crisis, Hong Kong’s leader said.

“I’m scared and leaders should look out,” said Donald Tsang, chief executive of the city, said in Singapore today. “America is doing exactly what Japan did last time,” he said, adding that Japan’s zero interest rate policy contributed to the 1997 Asian financial crisis and U.S. mortgage meltdown.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, a scholar of the Great Depression, has overseen a record injection of liquidity into the world’s largest economy, pledging not to make the mistake of the 1930s, when officials tightened policy. Tsang’s warning contrasts with pledges by the Group of 20 nations that represent the world’s biggest economies to keep stimulus measures in place.

“We have a U.S. dollar carry trade at the moment,” Tsang, 65, said in a speech where leaders of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum are gathering for a weekend summit. The carry trade is where investors borrow cheaply in one currency and use the funds to invest in other currencies.

“Where is the money going -- it’s where the problem’s going to be: Asia,” Tsang said. “You can see asset prices going up, not only in Korea, in Taiwan, in Singapore and in Hong Kong, going up to levels that are incompatible or inconsistent with the economic fundamentals.”
*****​
 
KingOrfeo said:
When are you going to drop that ridiculous lie?
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That you're stupid or he's a Marxist?

He was raised in a Marxist family and attended a Marxist church.

He was mentored by a Marxist.

He was taught by Marxists.

He's hired a bunch of Marxists.

If you think all of that led him to pragmatic centrism and capitalism then you just might not be smarter than a fifth-grader...

__________________
Ayers wrote his book,
Harvard wrote his Review,
Apollo Alliance wrote his TARP,
Congress is writing his Health Care,
Nobel Committee awarded him extra credit...,

... and the Democrat Media is Wrighting his Legacy!
 
Frisco_Slug_Esq said:
That you're stupid or he's a Marxist?
He was raised in a Marxist family and attended a Marxist church.
He was mentored by a Marxist.
He was taught by Marxists.
He's hired a bunch of Marxists.
If you think all of that led him to pragmatic centrism and capitalism then you just might not be smarter than a fifth-grader...
Click to expand...

AJ wakes up each morning outraged that Obama is still alive. :rolleyes:

P.S. He's not a Marxist, AJ. No amount of mindless repetitive babble on your part can change that. Grow up.

P.P.S. I just thought of something....is "Marxist" a synonym for "Negro" on your planet? Just thought I'd ask....
 
RobDownSouth said:
AJ wakes up each morning outraged that Obama is still alive. :rolleyes:

P.S. He's not a Marxist, AJ. No amount of mindless repetitive babble on your part can change that. Grow up.

P.P.S. I just thought of something....is "Marxist" a synonym for "Negro" on your planet? Just thought I'd ask....
Click to expand...

Marxism is the new Black. Let's all go back to school and get indoctrinated. :D
 

I know the author. He's not dumb. He wouldn't want his name mentioned on this website.

Let’s look at where the major risks are.

1. A steady decline in the dollar could accelerate. To me, this is the biggest risk.

2. Housing could roll over and take another leg down if foreclosures accelerate once again. But low interest rates and stabilizing prices less that risk almost daily.

3. The unintended consequences of new Federal legislation can be profound. I said can be, not will be, because little has actually been passed into law so far.

4. Growth can fail to match expectations. If most key legislation initiatives now on the table make it into law in some context, the ensuing tax burden will slow consumer growth significantly.

5. China’s boom, spurred by massive capital spending, could collapse if consumption growth cannot absorb all the new capacity. China is clearly the world’s primary growth engine at the moment.

But the biggest risk already being felt is the pressures building on small businesses. There is no better example right now than what is going on in health insurance. Insurance companies are doing just what you would expect them to do. They are scrambling to raise rates just as fast as they can in front of what they see as a much more negative environment beginning in 2013, when whatever health care insurance reform initiatives now on the table go into effect. We know that Medicare doesn’t pay its share of the freight. The excess is shifted to the private sector. Big companies with bargaining power are telling the insurance companies to pound sand. If economically prudent, they will simply self-insure all but the outlier costs. That means that the entire burden is destined to be borne by small businesses and individuals. That is exactly what is happening. Premiums to those groups are rising by as much as 20%, and increases of that size may continue for the next several years. Creating a new public option in 2013 isn’t going to help anyone for the next 4 years. If human costs are rising at a rapid pace, companies have an obvious choice; they will do everything in their power to make do with fewer people. You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to figure out the economic impact of that decision. Add in higher taxes and more regulation and you see what happens.
Click to expand...

 
It is a shame to see what government regulation and policies have done to manufacturing in this country.
Click to expand...

The US is the leading manufacturing country in the world. 150 million labor force and the US is the number 1 manufacturing country in the world.
 
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