Fear & Greed
- Thread starter trysail
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trysail
Catch Me Who Can
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The thin green line is what you get paid above the rate of inflation for owning a 5-year U.S. Treasury note.
Basically, since 2004, you haven't been paid anything— and since the reign of "Helicopter" Ben Bernanke (and now, his carbon copy, Janet Yellen), you've actually been losing money (after considering the effects of inflation and taxes).
Handley_Page
Draco interdum Vincit
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Oh, I do wish these interesting facts & graphs, etc., would be properly scaled to a simple screen.
49greg
Literotica Hack
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Sometimes I wonder if Fox (and other news operations) don't harp on bad things to reinforce their fears so as to get watchers to come back.
trysail
Catch Me Who Can
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The best investments I ever made were the ones that I couldn't talk anyone else into making. Eventually, I'd give up trying and invest in them myself.
There was energy in 1986.
There was BAT in 1996.
There was MO in 1999.
There was HP in 1994.
There was energy in 1996.
There was U.S. Treasuries in 1998.
There was Rhône-Poulenc/Rhône-Poulenc Rorer in 1998.
There was Merck KGaA (Darmstadt) in 1999.
There was Roche in 1999.
There was Nestlè and Unilever in 2003.
There was cash and Treasuries in 2006.
There was TROW (and just about anything else) in 2009.
Desiremakesmeweak
Literotica Guru
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Once upon a time, I think back especially in the Fifties and Sixties, people were afraid that the world might turn into George Orwell's Big Brother thing.
And then...
It did.
And then...
It did.
Desiremakesmeweak
Literotica Guru
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So okay please tell me, I'm listening up - what are you investing in NOW?
Rowe Price is not doin' it for me.
Bill Gross never did anything for anyone as far as I can tell other than that he had the backing of the German government for some odd reason...
Benjamin Graham would be rolling in his grave if he knew how much Buffett has abandoned monetarism and the fair open market pricing of money.
So...? Where to from here?
Rowe Price is not doin' it for me.
Bill Gross never did anything for anyone as far as I can tell other than that he had the backing of the German government for some odd reason...
Benjamin Graham would be rolling in his grave if he knew how much Buffett has abandoned monetarism and the fair open market pricing of money.
So...? Where to from here?
colddiesel
Literotica Guru
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More or less anything that will produce 5 to 7% after tax in the long term.
I put a lot into Supermarkets in 2006/7 because I figgered that when things went tits up, people gotta eat, but they need another look because the nature of food retailing is changing and the big, all lines Supermarkets are suffering at the hands of Aldi (German) Lidl(German or French) and similar specialists.
I punt a fair bit in mining stocks but only because it's the Industry I know best. Coal, Iron ore, and Oil prices are all in the pan at the moment and I've wound those down to modest levels. BHP and Rio Tinto are ok because their cost of production beats their rivals - but there's still far too much capacity - especially in energy coal.
Some rare earth companies are worth a punt but too many are run by rogues. Same problem with gold explorers, don't touch 'em.
Don't touch Telecoms or media players any more - I just don't understand them.
I reckon that retirement living should be a better investment than it is, but all the management costs of most of the specialists are way too high - which inhibits returns. And they have to compete with charities.
trysail
Catch Me Who Can
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The Federal Reserve's artificial suppression of interest rates is irresponsible. It is distorting markets, encouraging excessive risk-taking and is punishing savers, the liquid and the prudent.
OMAHA, Neb., May 2 (Reuters) - Billionaire investor Warren Buffett said on Saturday that stock prices would look expensive if interest rates normalized from their ultra low levels.
"If we get back to normal interest rates, stocks at these prices will look high," said Buffett, speaking at the annual Berkshire Hathaway meeting of his sprawling conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway...
robertreams
Literotica Guru
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Hate and greed are extremely profitable. Look for those whose message seeks to make you more afraid, then vote/shop against them.
trysail
Catch Me Who Can
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Code:
Current S&P 500:
2078.58
Current S&P 500 Dividend:
$44.001
Yield: 2.12%
Earnings Growth Rate: 6.00% 6.00% 6.00% 6.25% 6.25% 6.25% 6.50% 6.50% 6.50%
Current S&P 500 (Operating) EPS:
2015 $97.52 $108.25 $115.01 $97.52 $108.25 $115.01 $97.52 $108.25 $115.01 Base Year
2016 103.37 114.74 121.91 103.61 115.01 122.20 103.86 115.28 122.49
2017 109.57 121.62 129.23 110.09 122.20 129.84 110.61 122.78 130.45
2018 116.15 128.92 136.98 116.97 129.84 137.95 117.80 130.76 138.93
2019 123.11 136.66 145.20 124.28 137.95 146.57 125.45 139.25 147.96
2020 130.50 144.86 153.91 132.05 146.57 155.73 133.61 148.31 157.58
6 Year Pretax Total Return,
if Terminal P/E is: CAGR
18 ------ 4.2% 6.0% 7.0% 4.4% 6.2% 7.2% 4.6% 6.4% 7.4%
16 ------ 2.2% 3.9% 5.0% 2.4% 4.1% 5.2% 2.6% 4.3% 5.4%
14 ------ 0.0% 1.7% 2.7% 0.2% 1.9% 2.9% 0.4% 2.1% 3.1%
12 ------ -2.5% -0.8% 0.2% -2.3% -0.6% 0.4% -2.1% -0.4% 0.6%
