What made you smile or laugh today? Part IV

Talking with my best friend in another state the phone, knowing he's alright.
 
Today and tomorrow is a big celebration here normally. People gathering on the streets, having a gigantic picnic, concerts and such. Now it's all online. Both the city and the state have put a lot of effort and money into this. I'm looking forward to seeing how it plays out.
 
A virtual easter egg hunt in a park with a pup looking for easter eggs with ham and cheese in them.
 
Getting a job. People actually went out of their way to carve out a position for me, because they don't want to let me go but also couldn't give me the position I interviewed for.

The crazy gamble paid off in the end. I've been so sad and worried for weeks now, this is good.
 
Getting a job. People actually went out of their way to carve out a position for me, because they don't want to let me go but also couldn't give me the position I interviewed for.

The crazy gamble paid off in the end. I've been so sad and worried for weeks now, this is good.


Congratulations!
 
Watching it all play out. I wonder how many will be left alive by the end of this.

Hmmmm... Well, here in the USA it's looking like upwards of 100,000 people are sadly going to die.

OTOH, it's a country of 330,000,000 people. That would leave 329,900,000 alive. If you prefer percentages, that's 99.97% survival rate. Inasmuch as the disease seems to concentrate highly on the elderly and the already sick, if you are neither one of those your odds are more like 99.998% of surviving.

And that's "if it gets bad."

If it gets really bad, and is ten times that bad, your odds fall to 99.7% THat's with 1,000,000 people dying, which is kind of preposterous.

Those are real numbers. You can check my math. If 1,000,000 Americans Die, which is beyond anyone's scariest estimates, your odds are 99.7% of making it.

We are destroying our economy over this, but those are absolutely accurate numbers.

Worry less. Punish (or be punished) more.
 
Thanks. :)


Another big smile for today... They're starting to lift restrictions here. The very first thing that gets opened are libraries, asap.

Priorities gotten right!

Definitely congratulations are in order!!! A job is always good news.
 
I learned a new word! (I immediately thought of Seela!)

Contumacious.

I think it really should be used in place of brat - but that's just me.
 
The exquisite feeling of a new Dominant easily checking off an important part of my check list: being able to actually make me genuinely blush without trying to do so.
 
Hmmmm... Well, here in the USA it's looking like upwards of 100,000 people are sadly going to die.

OTOH, it's a country of 330,000,000 people. That would leave 329,900,000 alive. If you prefer percentages, that's 99.97% survival rate. Inasmuch as the disease seems to concentrate highly on the elderly and the already sick, if you are neither one of those your odds are more like 99.998% of surviving.

...or if you are, as several folk on this board are, they're worse.

If it gets really bad, and is ten times that bad, your odds fall to 99.7% THat's with 1,000,000 people dying, which is kind of preposterous.

Why is it "preposterous"?

So far, the US case-fatality rate seems to be about 5% (although there are reporting issues in both directions, and we don't really know how much long-term damage it causes). At that rate, 20 million cases = 1 million deaths. It doesn't seem particularly preposterous to think that a fast-spreading, highly infectious disease might be able to infect 20m people in the USA, especially if people aren't willing to continue distancing measures.

Those are real numbers. You can check my math. If 1,000,000 Americans Die, which is beyond anyone's scariest estimates,

Actually, that's less than half of the worst-case scenario predicted in the Imperial College report back in March: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

That prediction assumed no mitigation; obviously the USA has been taking steps to mitigate, but the epidemic isn't anywhere near under control yet, and there's still plenty of space to fuck things up badly.
 
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