What made you smile or laugh today? Part IV

[ToPleaseHim]

Twue Doms

 

[Misshotndeep]

Fake bitches. Their hypocrisy and general Karen behavior are always so amusing.

 

[seela]

Definitely congratulations are in order!!! A job is always good news.

Yay!!! I know this has been a cloud over your head. I’m happy for you!

Thank you! It's really such a relief. It's not a permanent thing, but it's until Jan 2023. Which, come to think of it, is probably roughly as long as the humanity has left before we're completely wiped out by corona spreading killer bees. Cheers!

I learned a new word! (I immediately thought of Seela!)

Contumacious.

I think it really should be used in place of brat - but that's just me.

I choose to believe that you thought of me because words are cool, not because you find me contumacious.

That's a great word! I've been learning many new ones recently. Forgotten most already.

 

[edontario559]

Why is it "preposterous"?

So far, the US case-fatality rate seems to be about 5% (although there are reporting issues in both directions, and we don't really know how much long-term damage it causes). At that rate, 20 million cases = 1 million deaths. It doesn't seem particularly preposterous to think that a fast-spreading, highly infectious disease might be able to infect 20m people in the USA, especially if people aren't willing to continue distancing measures.



Actually, that's less than half of the worst-case scenario predicted in the Imperial College report back in March: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

The Imperial College Report is about as disproven as a report can be, up to and including the Author famously ignoring it himself and being caught dipping his wick into his "non-isolated" mistress.

With that said... viruses have seasons. Even the big ones, like the 1957 Asian Flu died off. Why? Lots of theories, but nobody is really sure. Herd immunity is the best all-encompassing guess, but regardless - look at the data.

The curves are flattening even in Sweden, where they are doing a whole lotta nothing other than self-isolation and common sense. In South Korea, this is a "past tense" thing.

Do you know many people who catch the seasonal flu in July? Of course not... because that's not flu season. Viruses have seasons, which is probably just a cycle of mutation and immunity.

The growth rates for the whole of the USA are looking like 150,000... but what if it's a million? What if it's two?

How many women have to be punched in the mouth by men who are "popping" over losing their jobs and being locked up like this?

How many men are blowing their own brains out over this?

How many children are being mauled by dogs that their families "adopted" without having a clue on how to raise them? I know the answer to this one, for personal reasons, and it is "holy smokes!"

The unintended consequences of this far, far outstrip the direct effects.

You appear to be older. If so, consider this: did your grandmother ever mention the great flu of 1957? The "famous" Asian Flu? No?

Mine neither.

OTOH, she talked about the Great Depression almost every Sunday.

You don't see a lot of pictures of the 1918 Spanish Flu, but one of the most iconic photos in US History is a black and white photo of a homeless woman, her children on her knees, with a "thousand yard stare."

Someone asked the odds, so I gave them. Math is math. You want to use anecdotes and micro-data, when the nation is macro.

At the end of the day, the vast vaaaassst majority of people are going to be physically unaffected by the virus. The same cannot be said about domestic violence, substance abuse, depression, economic devastation, etc.

A Depression is forever. The scars never, ever go away. Those who will be hammered by it are, for the most part, young.

What a tragedy. What a grotesque over-reaction.

Sorry, this is supposed to be about Smiling and Laughing. I'll stop posting this here.

 

[gracie920101]

I choose to believe that you thought of me because words are cool, not because you find me contumacious.

That's a great word! I've been learning many new ones recently. Forgotten most already.

LOL!

I thought of you because I smile whenever I see your posts about learning a new word.

I'm in awe of your zeal in learning multiple languages and those posts remind me that no, you are not a native speaker even though your ease of use disguises that fact.

 

[Bramblethorn]

The Imperial College Report is about as disproven as a report can be, up to and including the Author famously ignoring it himself and being caught dipping his wick into his "non-isolated" mistress.

https://ethics.org.au/ethics-explainer-ad-hominem-fallacy/

I'm not arguing the merits or otherwise of that report, simply pointing out that your assertion of "beyond anyone's scariest estimates" is wrong. And if your best rebuttal is that "the author" (actually one of thirty-one authors on that paper) didn't take his own advice, well, that's not actually a rebuttal at all.

With that said... viruses have seasons. Even the big ones, like the 1957 Asian Flu died off. Why? Lots of theories, but nobody is really sure. Herd immunity is the best all-encompassing guess, but regardless - look at the data.

The 1957 flu was caused by A/H2N2, a new strain. It was slowed by the development of a vaccine that same year, but it hung around for another decade before developing into A/H3N2, which was the cause of the 1968-9 flu pandemic. In the short run that second pandemic killed about 100k people in the USA (from a significantly smaller population than today, with a significantly lower CFR) and A/H3N2 has been around ever since. It continues to be one of the major comtributors to seasonal flu deaths.

The curves are flattening even in Sweden, where they are doing a whole lotta nothing other than self-isolation and common sense. In South Korea, this is a "past tense" thing.

"Flattening the curve" has several different meanings depending on who's using it. This is what Sweden looks like:

https://en.wikipedia.org/api/rest_v1/page/graph/png/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Sweden/0/5a5082985527d289c038f367b49055025dee0ef2.png

If you squint hard, possibly some slowing in the last few days, but way too early to be sure if that's sustained.

(Sweden's population is about 1/33rd that of the USA, so those death rates would be equivalent to 100k dead in the USA, and still climbing.)

Do you know many people who catch the seasonal flu in July? Of course not... because that's not flu season.

Actually, yes, I do - getting my annual flu shot tomorrow, as it happens - but we'll save the "not everybody on this board lives in the USA" talk for another day.

Viruses have seasons, which is probably just a cycle of mutation and immunity.

You're conflating different things here. Flu has a regular yearly cycle caused by seasonal effects (people are indoors and closer together in cold months, and some viruses are sensitive to temperature/humidity - this is why July is indeed flu season where I live) overlaid by aperiodic, unpredictable peaks and troughs related to mutation and immunity (and also whether we guessed right about which strains to include in that year's vaccine).

The growth rates for the whole of the USA are looking like 150,000... but what if it's a million? What if it's two?

How many women have to be punched in the mouth by men who are "popping" over losing their jobs and being locked up like this?

I remember when I lost my job a while back and was out of work for a year. It sucked hard, but weirdly I never "had to" punch my partner in the mouth, or anywhere else. The thought never occurred to me.

But if there are guys who really can't or won't stop themselves from violently abusing their partners during lockdown... maybe it's just me, but I feel like I'd prefer to sacrifice those guys instead of a bunch of seniors and asthmatics and healthcare workers and all sorts of other lovely people. Historically, "let's shape our policy around what will appease violent abusive men" is not an approach that works out well for anybody other than violent abusive men.

How many men are blowing their own brains out over this?

So, here's the thing. I don't know you, and you don't have enough of a posting history for me to form much of an impression, so this is not necessarily directed at you. You'll have to decide for yourself whether it applies.

In the last couple of months I am suddenly seeing a whole bunch of people develop Very Serious Concerns about mental illness/domestic violence/etc. caused by lockdown.

I don't intend to downplay those issues - even in normal times, MI and DV are serious issues that don't get anywhere near the attention they deserve, and this situation will undoubtedly exacerbate that.

But when people only seem to notice these issues in the context of lockdown, and their only proposed remedy is "lift the lockdown" without any consideration of other ways those problems might be mitigated... it's hard not to feel like maybe these people aren't actually particularly bothered about mental illness, domestic violence, etc. etc. and perhaps they're just using those issues as smokescreens for their actual agenda, which is usually something like "lift the lockdown because it's costing me money".

Like I say - I don't know you, you will have to decide for yourself whether that applies.

(You know what else contributes to mental illness, BTW? Being seriously ill. Suffering lasting health effects from an infection. Losing loved ones. Or, if you're a healthcare worker, losing a lot of patients in a short time.)

The unintended consequences of this far, far outstrip the direct effects.

By what metric? How do you quantify that?

I acknowledge that the economic and social costs of lockdowns are very serious, but so are the costs of an unchecked pandemic that kills ~ 5% of people it hits and does serious, lasting damage to many more.

You appear to be older. If so, consider this: did your grandmother ever mention the great flu of 1957? The "famous" Asian Flu? No?

Mine neither.

OTOH, she talked about the Great Depression almost every Sunday.

I don't recall my grandparents talking about either of those topics, but then we didn't have a lot of opportunities for conversation.

You want to use anecdotes and micro-data, when the nation is macro.

...dude, you're the one invoking your grandma here.

(also, that's not really what "micro-data" means.)

 

[cookiecat]

Getting a job. People actually went out of their way to carve out a position for me, because they don't want to let me go but also couldn't give me the position I interviewed for.

The crazy gamble paid off in the end. I've been so sad and worried for weeks now, this is good.

I'll add my congrats to the chorus!

 

[Dreamliner]

Getting a job. People actually went out of their way to carve out a position for me, because they don't want to let me go but also couldn't give me the position I interviewed for.

The crazy gamble paid off in the end. I've been so sad and worried for weeks now, this is good.

Congratulations seela, well done and it provides you with a settled period of time through this time of change.

I learned a new word! (I immediately thought of Seela!)

Contumacious.

I think it really should be used in place of brat - but that's just me.

I had to re-read that word cookie, I had the spelling incorrect the first time round, or perhaps it is how I was enunciating the word.

 

[Bramblethorn]

Getting a job. People actually went out of their way to carve out a position for me, because they don't want to let me go but also couldn't give me the position I interviewed for.

The crazy gamble paid off in the end. I've been so sad and worried for weeks now, this is good.

Hooray! Lovely to know you're valued that much.

 

[kiwi_submissive]

Dinner on the beach while watching a beautiful sunset.

 

[lycan_hitch]

Dinner on the beach while watching a beautiful sunset.

Lucky lady, you are.

For me, just a good glass of watermelon juice.

 

[supercollider00]

Being productive so far in the day. Some Sabbath in the background and a lovely cup of tea as I can hear the wind blowing outside.

 

[supercollider00]

Ozzy Sabbath or Dio?
(The answer is “both.”)

The answer is chronological order through all their discs today hehehe

 

[cookiecat]

What makes me smile?
Watching Bramble be Bramble.

Yes!!

Also smile worthy: seeing To Please Me cuss twice this morning!

(Although TPM probably wasn't smiling at all the asshattery)

Kudos to gatekeepers and factfinders

 

[twister947]

What makes me smile?
Watching Bramble be Bramble.

My thoughts, too.

 

[seela]

The library opens tomorrow!!!!

 

[Cumference]

A 3 day weekend

It is the result of a bunch of religious holidays that were bunched into one.
(I have no religious intentions apart from maybe a fertility rite)

 

[Bramblethorn]

What makes me smile?
Watching Bramble be Bramble.

It's all I know!

 

[seela]

A law passing.
Lunch sandwich under a cherry tree.
Sunny weather.

 

[Justis]

A special someone who has me constantly laughing, who holds me and comforts me, who sees into my soul, who blows my mind with their beautiful heart. Who just gets me, all of me and is incredibly delicious.

 

[ToPleaseHim]

Yes!!

Also smile worthy: seeing To Please Me cuss twice this morning!

(Although TPM probably wasn't smiling at all the asshattery)

Kudos to gatekeepers and factfinders

This happened to me IRL, too. I must give off some type of vibe, but in reality I have a potty mouth, lol. People are always surprised the first time.

And I love you all, by the way. We have a lot of good people here.

 

[Misshotndeep]

Bs ass-kissing.

 

[cookiecat]

Who are you, again?

I would ignore this post because, like slv4me in that other thread you went bananas in, you are doing the exact same thing he was doing. Both of you bitch about something and then you turn around and do the exact same thing.

So you don't like someone. That happens. But really? To accuse someone of destroying, hurting, even killing and saying it's fun and laughs? Telling someone they are the reason others commit suicide?

Wow.

Talk about bullying.

 

[gracie920101]

You know how hurt I am by her words.

Damn! What did I miss?
I'm trying to decide if I'm your Karen, Heather or Becky.

 

[cookiecat]

You know how hurt I am by her words.

Yeah.

https://i.imgur.com/JHw2dD9.gif


I need to walk! So close to 10,000 steps!

https://i.imgur.com/bl96UnF.gif