What coming recession?

[Guest]

Re: here's a hint

My friend made his money helping crappy companies take over good ones. The record thus far shows that no one benefited much except the top execs and the financial players. Slick, yes, but not useful. But oh so rewarding.

And sure, Samuari - that's one of the problems with teacher salaries. People don't truly feel that it's a valuable service. Is it? Do we need good teachers? Guess not. The market's never wrong!

Shadow baby, whats happened is that the market has been skewed by outside influences (tax laws, security laws, anti-trust laws, that sort of thing) that were intended to keep folks from hurting themselves, but have had the unintended consequence of making the takeover and rape of good companies very lucertive.

I'm not sure what that has to do with teacher salaries, but I point once again to there are a lot of folks that can do that job (depending on the subject) so that makes the compensation not as lucertive as it perhaps it should be. We need good teachers, (and I suspect that you are one), but teacher unions force school boards to pay you the same as the teacher that is incompetent, another facter that skews the market.

 

[Samuari]

That was me, Damn cokies

 

[shadowsource]

No way!

I'm not a teacher. Never was. I empathize with them. I don't have kids either. Guess that shows you what a liberal I am, caring about teachers and kids without any Objectivist interest. Guess I think that somehow it's good for me if people can read and think and sleep safely til they croak.

 

[Samuari]

Re: No way!

I'm not a teacher. Never was. I empathize with them. I don't have kids either. Guess that shows you what a liberal I am, caring about teachers and kids without any Objectivist interest. Guess I think that somehow it's good for me if people can read and think and sleep safely til they croak.

I do wish that you would stop trying to confuse me. I guessed wrong, and made a conclusion that was unjustified. If I offended you, I'm sorry. I never thought that assuming someone was a good teacher (or good any other profession for that matter) would be construed as insulting.

You never did answer the point that it is "do good" legeslation and other outside influnces that skew the market, and make posable the abuses that you are complaining about. I agree with you that these problems are real; but what is thier source, and how do you fix it? I suspect that we will have very different answers there.

The "from each according to his ability, and to each according to his need," model of ecnomic activity, so far has only worked in monestaries and convents over any length of time. It works there because the folks there have another purpose for being there, and have freely chosen that life.

 

[shadowsource]

I think -

That having the SEC is worth more than not having an SEC. That the institutions created since the Great Crash and the Depression have worked well enough to let people think we no longer need them (Yay! The New Economy doesn't need earnings! kind of thinking). Sure, regulation leaves openings for interested parties to try to make some hay. But unregulated markets, a total lack of retirement security, etc. are eventually catastrophic. As that "Great Generation" that endured the Depression and World War II die off, we're going to get closer to 1) a new Depression and 2) a new big war, probably with China if Bush has his way (the US Undersecretary of State was just pissing off the Aussies, telling them we need their kids to die for us in defense of Taiwan).

I didn't take offense at anything you said. I was sharp, I suppose, at the thought that I was only saying that about teachers because I am one. I work for myself, hate corporations, bosses, bureaucracies, etc. as much as anyone. Intellectually, I accept that they exist and should be made to work well. But I'm not a socialist - gave all that up long ago, and I'm content that most people want a relatively free market.

Don't worry about offending me, Samuari. Be well.

 

[Latina]

Lost my job (layoff) two months ago. That's about $15,000 in lost wages so far. The government wants me to feel good about losing $15,000, because, after all, they're going to mail me Bush's infamous $600 tax refund one of these days! And in the meantime, I can collect about 10% of my normal salary from unemployment.

But things are getting a little better. At the local career fair, in July I found 3 companies hiring in my field; in August I found about 20. That's a bit better, but a year ago, it would have been about 100 companies hiring. And still not hired yet.

We're not ENTERING a recession, it's already here!

-- Frank

 

[Ask For More]

Credit is the next reason we're hitting a recession. People get too much on credit that they can't pay for. We are an instant gratification culture. We want it, we want it NOW, not next week. A salesman says that you can drive home in that brand new {car of choice} today that you have to finance, rather than the cheaper used car in the back row that you may actually have the cash to pay for. You want a system for your car? Finance it. You want a new couch? Finance it, hey get that big screen while you're at it, can't live with it right? New clothes, new cell phone, new shoes, jewelery, no cash, finance it! Get laid off, go bankrupt and work in Wallyhell. Hey, at least you got your health.

I can't believe no one else has picked on this. To me this is the most insightful statement mdae so far; Japan had the same problem in the 80's and is now suffering the consequences over 20 years later.

Obviously we can't take the case of Japan and apply that to America since we're talking about two completely different cultures. But anyway, here's the main gist of it. In the 80's Japan was stuck in an asset price bubble (I think that's the term....my memory's a bit hazy), which basically means that asset prices are so high that it's easy to get loans and investment. since properties/stocks/etc were worth so much, banks would willingly lend large sums to companies/consumers, who would then use this money for futher investments or just general consumption. So when the prices started dropping, people started panicking since they wouldn't be able to pay back their loans, and chaos ensued and Japan is still recovering today.

So now America is in a similar situation. Obviously I'm not an expert, but I'm under the impression that America is a totally consumer driven culture, KM's statement just confirms that for me. Stock prices high, and assets worth lots, and so plenty of collateral to go around for loans. Also, people are too inclined towards saving any amount of their loans and so forth.

I'm not sure that America can recover so easily. Am I the only one?

 

[shadowsource]

Actually -

The problem in Japan is that the banks don't want to write off their bad loans, which would sink a lot of them, and everyone's pretending things will get better soon.

Our problem is that all the companies overproduced, trying to keep expanding throughout that glorious bubble. Their inventories are full, and we're all buying less... and less. As they lay people off, the credit issue begins to grow. But with the new bankruptcy law that Bush signed a few months ago, we don't have to worry about the banks not recognizing their bad loans; the risk is that zillions of consumers will be busted, flat, no pity, no grace. And small businesses will have it worse. Historically, a little leeway went a long way at keeping these little job providers in business through recessions.

Essentially, we're on a very tight wire that could unravel in a very nasty way. Then, if the economy flatlines for a long time, and no one can figure out how to jump start it, we'll be like Japan.

Running deficits again, especially with huge balance of payments problems (importing way more than we export - the opposite of the japanese way) will further foul everything, much the way Reagan had it going. This way lies the toilet.

 

[Cheyenne]

Re: That scorn and ignorance -

How much money would you want, Cheyenne or Miles, to clean toilets all day?

I can't speak for Miles, but I won't clean toilets all day so the pay is a moot point. I went to school and got a good desk job to avoid doing manual labor. Personal preference, but that was my choice.

 

[Cheyenne]

Re: here's a hint

My friend made his money helping crappy companies take over good ones.

Hmmm... define "crappy" and "good" please.

In my experience, a company that is a target for a takeover is generally the company that has the problems. Could be cash flow, poor stock price performance, labor issues, management weakness, etc. Being taken over is seen as a potential solution to those problems. Unless we're talking proxy fight, and even then there would be something about the target company that says "weakness" to the company attempting the takeover.

It is the "good" company that does the taking over, not the other way around.

 

[Samuari]

Arguing with an Eel

Shadow Baby, you might want to go back through this thread and really look at it. You rarely respond directly to other posts, and usally go off on a tangent. You have a decent mind, but I'm tired of arguing with an eel, you're too hard to get a hold off and I'm not sure what to do with you if I catch you.



Bless yer heart!

 

[miles]

shadow

How much money would you want, Cheyenne or Miles, to clean toilets all day?

I'll do it free, but only if I can use your head as a brush to clean the bowl.

I can hear you now in a muffled, upside-down voice, "Toilet bowl workers of the world unite."

 

[miles]

Samuari

You nailed the eel on the head.

He rarely responds because he can't support his opinion with logic. Hence the hysterical, rhetoric-filled rants.

 

[Cheyenne]

Re: shadow

I'll do it free, but only if I can use your head as a brush to clean the bowl.

I can hear you now in a muffled, upside-down voice, "Toilet bowl workers of the world unite."

Damn, I should have gone for the funny answer.

LMAO

 

[shadowsource]

yeah yeah

Mike Milken never existed. Chainsaw Al's a figment. LBO operators never plunder pension funds. Only the good get rich. Flush hard.

 

[Puddles The Wonder Poodle]

Re: yeah yeah

Mike Milken never existed. Chainsaw Al's a figment. LBO operators never plunder pension funds. Only the good get rich. Flush hard.

I thinkthat you intended this post for the pension 401k thread but hat may make too much sence. Its here and this is what I think of it:

http://home.wanadoo.nl/astrila/a/udo2w.gif

 

[Ask For More]

Re: Actually -

The problem in Japan is that the banks don't want to write off their bad loans, which would sink a lot of them, and everyone's pretending things will get better soon.

I'm not so sure about this. Alot of banks went bust and there was bad management which went all the way back to the interventioniest government. The problem was that banks, influenced by the governemnt, had given lots of money to companies to make investments that weren't so solid; and they thought they would have no problems because assets were valued so higly.

Our problem is that all the companies overproduced, trying to keep expanding throughout that glorious bubble. Their inventories are full, and we're all buying less... and less. As they lay people off, the credit issue begins to grow. But with the new bankruptcy law that Bush signed a few months ago, we don't have to worry about the banks not recognizing their bad loans; the risk is that zillions of consumers will be busted, flat, no pity, no grace. And small businesses will have it worse. Historically, a little leeway went a long way at keeping these little job providers in business through recessions.

What's this bankruptcy law? Can someone enlighten me?

Essentially, we're on a very tight wire that could unravel in a very nasty way. Then, if the economy flatlines for a long time, and no one can figure out how to jump start it, we'll be like Japan.

Running deficits again, especially with huge balance of payments problems (importing way more than we export - the opposite of the japanese way) will further foul everything, much the way Reagan had it going. This way lies the toilet.

I agree on the deficit part, America has a huge gap beteween savings-debt and that's where the inhernet problem lies. Unfortunately, it seems that turning this around is a very difficult task.