What are the odds of WINNING 6 coin tosses in a row?

[Busybody]

100% if you are a CLINTON!

While it was hard to call a winner between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders last night, it’s easy to say who was luckier.

The race between the Democrat presidential hopefuls was so tight in the Iowa caucus Monday that in at least six precincts, the decision on awarding a county delegate came down to a coin toss. And Clinton won all six, media reports said.


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/co...-in-iowa-and-hillary-won-each-time-2016-02-02

 

[Que]

Once she had 5 wins, the sixth one was 50/50.

 

[Busybody]

 

[Killswitch1]

Good. I like a POTUS who knows how to overcome, adapt, survive and ultimately win.

 

[toubab]

One in 64 chance of doing that. If Sanders had done it instead of Clinton he would have won Iowa.

 

[Smootg103]

One in 64 chance of doing that.

lulz... yous not so good at maths are ya brah?

 

[toubab]

lulz... yous not so good at maths are ya brah?

Not bad, brah.

 

[contrifan32]

I wonder if she will be as lucky with the FBI.

 

[Busybody]

I wonder if she will be as lucky with the FBI.

Yes.....

 

[toubab]

I wonder if she will be as lucky with the FBI.

Probably. She seems unusually lucky. When you have a situation where you win six coin flips in a row to win an election, that's pretty lucky. But maybe Sanders is just unusually unlucky. A mere three three split on the tosses would have won him the election. Winning only two out of four would have given him a 699-699 tie, based on the current count which has Clinton winning 701-697.

 

[nerfhearder]

The odds are 50/50 like any other coin toss because it wasn't a case of flipping a coin six times in a row, it was 6 serparate flips in 6 different places at 6 different times. Nothing more than coincidence and a little luck.
Had it actually been 6 flips in a row with the same coin at the same time then the odds would be different and pretty low but as is it's just 50/50 like any other toss.

 

[toubab]

The odds are 50/50 like any other coin toss because it wasn't a case of flipping a coin six times in a row, it was 6 serparate flips in 6 different places at 6 different times. Nothing more than coincidence and a little luck.
Had it actually been 6 flips in a row with the same coin at the same time then the odds would be different and pretty low but as is it's just 50/50 like any other toss.

Wrong. And you mean coincidence and a lot of luck.

 

[VaticanAssassin]

Order of operations to determining Iowa winners:
1. Tallied votes
2. Coin toss
3. Rock paper scissors
4. Staring contest

an no...it is not 50/50

 

[nerfhearder]

Wrong. And you mean coincidence and a lot of luck.

No, it's not wrong. You flip a coin you got a 50/50 shot. You go somewhere else and flip a coin you got another 50/50 shot.
If they flipped six different coins at the same time the odds change dramatically but not anything that can't happen and each coin is still at 50/50 as to what will happen to it. However the odds of all coins coming up the same outweigh everything else so it'd be around 2% which is slim but not none.
Gamblers fallacy says your odds improve if the other side wins more at first but there's a reason it's called a fallacy, it just doesn't work that way.

 

[toubab]

No, it's not wrong. You flip a coin you got a 50/50 shot. You go somewhere else and flip a coin you got another 50/50 shot.
If they flipped six different coins at the same time the odds change dramatically but not anything that can't happen and each coin is still at 50/50 as to what will happen to it.
Gamblers fallacy says your odds improve if the other side wins more at first but there's a reason it's called a fallacy, it just doesn't work that way.

I'm a gambler and I know what I'm talking about. If you flip six different coins at the same time the chance of all of them coming up the same is one in 64.

 

[nerfhearder]

I'm a gambler and I know what I'm talking about. If you flip six different coins at the same time the chance of all of them coming up the same is one in 64.

Yes, that's what I'm saying. But they didn't do that, they flipped 6 coins at different places and different times and different coins. The odds don't change. All can come up heads and the odds were still 50/50.

 

[toubab]

Yes, that's what I'm saying. But they didn't do that, they flipped 6 coins at different places and different times and different coins. The odds don't change. All can come up heads and the odds were still 50/50.

You are looking at it wrong. If there were only six flips, and Clinton's side won all six, the chance of that happening was exactly one out of 64.

 

[nerfhearder]

You are looking at it wrong. If there were only six flips, and Clinton's side won all six, the chance of that happening was exactly one out of 64.

No, I'm not looking at it wrong. The chances were equal. Flip a coin now, you got a 50% chance. Flip one tomorrow, your odds don't change. Flip all of them at once, they change because you've added more to the equation.
Winning 6 50/50 games is just luck.
Now this is without knowing exactly how they do it. Does each toss have someone calling heads or tails at each different place? Is each candidate assigned heads or tails and that is across the board at all precincts?
That changes the odds.

 

[toubab]

No, I'm not looking at it wrong. The chances were equal. Flip a coin now, you got a 50% chance. Flip one tomorrow, your odds don't change. Flip all of them at once, they change because you've added more to the equation.
Winning 6 50/50 games is just luck.
Now this is without knowing exactly how they do it. Does each toss have someone calling heads or tails at each different place? Is each candidate assigned heads or tails and that is across the board at all precincts?
That changes the odds.

Keep thinking it's 50/50. Good luck.

 

[nerfhearder]

Keep thinking it's 50/50. Good luck.

Then explain how it's not in this situation.

 

[Que]

Then explain how it's not in this situation.

Because, although each individual event was 50/50, the odds of all of those individual events coming up the same was 1/64. There are 63 other posdible outcomes from those 6 flips that did not happen.

 

[toubab]

Then explain how it's not in this situation.

I've already explained it, but let me see if I can simplify it for you. The chance of Clinton's side winning one toss was one out of two. You understand that, right? The chance of winning two out of two was one in four. You understand that, I hope. The chance of winning three out of three was one in eight. And so on. And now I'm done. Adios.

 

[phrodeau]

It's obviously the Will of God.

 

[nerfhearder]

Because, although each individual event was 50/50, the odds of all of those individual events coming up the same was 1/64. There are 63 other posdible outcomes from those 6 flips that did not happen.

That was my caveat, do we know they all came up the same? I don't know how that is done. Coming up in favor of one person is not the same as the toss coming up the same each time.

 

[phrodeau]

That was my caveat, do we know they all came up the same? I don't know how that is done. Coming up in favor of one person is not the same as the toss coming up the same each time.

Yes it is, actually.

The only way it would work out to 50/50 is if they decided all six results by a single coin toss. Once multiple tosses are involved, the odds change.