Ukraine should have given Donbas and Crimea BACK to Russia

[LupusDei]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FRXsuhyXIAQc3f_?format=jpg&name=900x900

Above is the ambition of the borders of Ukraine, circa 1919. They failed to reach them then, but may yet to return to that map if the current war lasts long enough.

 

[Ezkaton]

Russia threw the first punch.... the only thing Ukraine should give them is an ass beating all the way back to Russia, take their pound of flesh for the transgression and do some annexing of their own.

 

[Sh1ne0n67]

"Well, there is, fortunately, one statesman in the United States and Europe, a high political figure, who has made a very sensible statement about how you can solve the crisis. Namely, by facilitating negotiations instead of undermining them and moving toward establishing some kind of accommodation in Europe, in which there are no military alliances, but just mutual accommodation.

...

"His name is Donald J. Trump"

Noam Chomsky (of all people)

 

[Chobham]

This is so tiresome. Ethnically... Donbas was russified in Golodomor, as was Krasnodar.

Just letting the Russians have the Donbas region would work if they were willing to be satisfied with that..............but they won't be.

 

[LupusDei]

Just letting the Russians have the Donbas region would work if they were willing to be satisfied with that..............but they won't be.

Yes, it would have worked excellently for Russia, if that was the extent of their ambition. I wrote here in 23.02. the day before the full scale attack:

Recognition of his own bandits' formations in eastern Ukraine is not a great move by it's own, for him. It narrow his decision space. It adds potential of certain future expenses (the flooded mines in the once busy heavy industry region are a ticking ecological time bomb, among everything). It ends the "Minsk Accords" a private interpretation of with he used to harass Ukraine, and potentially could use to gain possible long term influence in Ukraine politics. It triggered the first wave of western sanctions and incur financial and relationship losses at least short term.

And, it doesn't materially change anything on the ground, merely formalizing existing situation.

On it's own, it could be even leading to practical good for actual people in place. By analogy, the situation on the border and in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the two regions of Georgia occupied by Russia in 2008 are in fact much more stable and secure since Russian and Georgian armed forces face each other directly, without local, and purportedly local gangs perpetrating terror in the middle. The same might happen in Ukraine, at least the daily artillery exchanges might stop. There's none in the Perekop (the land bridge joining Crimea peninsula to the mainland) after all. The loss of the occupied territories is mostly accepted as a fact even in Ukraine, even if it wouldn't be voiced for obvious reasons.

However, it is a pawn sacrifice that opens a combination. How it will be played, and is the whole game winnable must be of concern.

The devil is in the details as always. Putin already confirmed that he's recognized the formations with all their base documents, including their constitutions prescribed their existence in the borders of the whole Donetsk and Luhansk provinces respectively. Each control the respective districts capital (in case of Donetsk, barely, the front line is still effectively in the suburbs) but only roughly a third of the districts total territory.

In hindsight, it was the winning position, the 23th of February 2022 was Putin's best day in this war. Had he be patient in holding it, he would have achieved most of his publicly stated war aims.

By just holding the pressure and the army on the border. Ukraine was in fact hurting badly, economically just by that pressure and increased risk leading to capital withdrawals.

And in contrast, there would be no western sanctions, no broad coalition, the few sending weapons to Ukraine branded as warmongering fools.

The attack on Kyiv was the stupidest thing Putin could possibly do, but he was misinformed by his own intelligence composing feel good reports on possible action they rightfully saw as absurd.

 

[Sh1ne0n67]

In that wasn't he a bit like Hitler who let the name Stalin become his undoing?

 

[mayfly13]

but ish and lupusdei,

The US just said that the Ukraine war will carry on for years. Probably hundreds of thousands will die!!

And more people are starting to feel played for fools,
Biden's rhetoric sneak-iishly changed from "we're trying to save Ukrainians" to "we're trying to make sure Russia never has the capability or power.

I just don't buy your excuses that countries like US and the UK could do nothing to prevent Putin's madness.

 

[Chobham]

Yes, it would have worked excellently for Russia, if that was the extent of their ambition. I wrote here in 23.02. the day before the full scale attack:



In hindsight, it was the winning position, the 23th of February 2022 was Putin's best day in this war. Had he be patient in holding it, he would have achieved most of his publicly stated war aims.

By just holding the pressure and the army on the border. Ukraine was in fact hurting badly, economically just by that pressure and increased risk leading to capital withdrawals.

And in contrast, there would be no western sanctions, no broad coalition, the few sending weapons to Ukraine branded as warmongering fools.

The attack on Kyiv was the stupidest thing Putin could possibly do, but he was misinformed by his own intelligence composing feel good reports on possible action they rightfully saw as absurd.

It's interesting that after all these years the Russians still can't do 'Blitzkrieg.' They do much better when they fall back on massed artillery. Of course that's pretty much been their doctrine since WWII.

They want the whole of Ukraine for the purposes of 'defending the Motherland.' There are nine routes that invaders have used to invade Russia over the years and taking Ukraine plugs two of the gaps.

Looking at the war map it appears that their immediate goal is to pinch off the salient and entrap the 5 Ukrainian brigades there. It then looks like the next step will be to drive on Odessa and land lock the Ukrainians.

The big question is, "Can they afford the cost?"

 

[Chobham]

but ish and lupusdei,

The US just said that the Ukraine war will carry on for years. Probably hundreds of thousands will die!!

And more people are starting to feel played for fools,
Biden's rhetoric sneak-iishly changed from "we're trying to save Ukrainians" to "we're trying to make sure Russia never has the capability or power.

I just don't buy your excuses that countries like US and the UK could do nothing to prevent Putin's madness.

Of course we can. A wholesale nuclear exchange should do the trick. Nothing like returning to the 'Dark Ages.' Life was so much more interesting back then.

 

[LupusDei]

but ish and lupusdei,

The US just said that the Ukraine war will carry on for years. Probably hundreds of thousands will die!!

And more people are starting to feel played for fools,
Biden's rhetoric sneak-iishly changed from "we're trying to save Ukrainians" to "we're trying to make sure Russia never has the capability or power.

I just don't buy your excuses that countries like US and the UK could do nothing to prevent Putin's madness.

I wrote an extended answer to you on just this in other thread. Of course this war is all about ending the Russian empire, and this is the best way available of how to beat them. The war will continue until Russia breaks.

When and how exactly it happens is anyone's guess.

What depends on Ukraine is, would they emerge as strong beacon of freedom, replacement of Russia in the global order, or a martyr. I still hold hope for the first two, combined.

 

[Rightguide]

It is the truth. Your problem is that you view the entire spectrum left of CPAC through the wrong end of a telescope. You think Democrats are leftists and you cannot even distinguish them from Communists. You are also oblivious to the fact that one can hate capitalism and still love America. Eugene Debs was at least as patriotic as Theodore Roosevelt.

There are State capitols and big cities that have radical governance, Seattle, Portland, Chicago, Sacramento, New York City, Washington DC, Baltimore, etc. There is no practical difference between the CPUSA and the present Democrat Party, none that you can articulate with any accuracy. I've asked you to explain that difference many times and you have failed to do so.

 

[Rightguide]

Whoa. Putin to undergo cancer surgery, transfer power​

JAZZ SHAW May 02, 2022 11:19 AM ET

https://hotair.com/jazz-shaw/2022/05/02/whoa-putin-to-undergo-cancer-surgery-transfer-power-n466376

This is only a rumor at this point but if true it may provide a possible solution to the Russian aggression in Ukraine, just maybe.

 

[pecksniff]

There are State capitols and big cities that have radical governance, Seattle, Portland, Chicago, Sacramento, New York City, Washington DC, Baltimore, etc.

None of those cities have "radical governance."