The latest and greatest "model"!!!

[VaticanAssassin]

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-models-arent-supposed-be-right/609271/

This is the article Zippy the Pinhead needed to disprove the point I was not making.



After pointing out why the math is necessarily wrong in all these models, it tries to make the point that they matter when you are then making policy decisions on models made with inadequate inputs.

It's really is as fumb as organizing your economy around one of Phrodeau's beloved, fatally flawed "climate change" models.

He really has gotten worse than the last time I was here. Has anyone checked on him?

Dementia?

 

[sygn]

Because one person on the ground would know anything beyond what the Chinese government wanted them to?

sure..... that makes sense
Same way Iran never hides anything from teams and teams of nuclear inspectors....


Hard to believe but I think you have become even more dumb in my absence.

No, Trump slashed the personnel from 47 to 14, epidemiologists and other health professionals included.

Taiwan's CDC contacted WHO end of December to report human to human transmission. So the US Intelligence Knew.
Also Dr. Li Wenliang posted it on Chinese social media.

30 able bodies that could have helped the China branch coordinated themselves much better & inform their colleagues in the US that Chinese authorities are obstructing their investigative work.

 

[zipman]

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-models-arent-supposed-be-right/609271/

This is the article Zippy the Pinhead needed to disprove the point I was not making.



After pointing out why the math is necessarily wrong in all these models, it tries to make the point that they matter when you are then making policy decisions on models made with inadequate inputs.

It's really is as fumb as organizing your economy around one of Phrodeau's beloved, fatally flawed "climate change" models.

Again, no. Your assertion that the math of how quickly the death rate is doubling was meaningless was a stupid statement. That is actual hard data.

What part of that don't you understand? Seriously, you're just looking like even more of a moron than usual.

 

[sygn]

Another interesting thing is that Australian and NZ governments were just as reluctant as the US to take the pandemic seriously.

The main reason they acted in time was because they faced enormous pressure from three or so top local epidemiologists, who mobilized the entire medical workforce to write petitions to the govt.


I keep asking myself why Au and NZ epidemiologists and virologists were more proactive than their American counterparts.

Could have been their proximity to Asia and multiple working relations with Asian Universities, that led them hear off the record how badly things are over there?

 

[zipman]

So hard that the Chinese actually did hide it for months and are still hiding the truth about it.

JFC man! Do you even listen to your own bullshit?

They were able to hide it because WE DIDN'T HAVE ANYONE THERE WITNESSING IT. They would have been right there, inside the Chinese CDC where all the information was.

What do you think they were going to do to hide it, send that person out for donuts and then discuss it?

Jesus fucking Christ how stupid are you?

 

[zipman]

Another interesting thing is that Australian and NZ governments were just as reluctant as the US to take the pandemic seriously.

The main reason they acted in time was because they faced enormous pressure from three or so top local epidemiologists, who mobilized the entire medical workforce to write petitions to the govt.


I keep asking myself why Au and NZ epidemiologists and virologists were more proactive than their American counterparts.

Could have been their proximity to Asia and multiple working relations with Asian Universities, that led them hear off the record how badly things are over there?

They weren't necessarily more proactive, they just had a government that didn't scoff at science at every turn because their moronic leader prefers to believe his gut instincts.

 

[sygn]

They weren't necessarily more proactive, they just had a government that didn't scoff at science at every turn because their moronic leader prefers to believe his gut instincts.

Jacinda Ardern (NZ) acted the very day the drs' petition was filed with the government.

but Scott Morris was a moron.
Unlike NZ press which at least published their doctors' petition in one newspaper,
Australian corporate press put under blackout All the doctors attempts, which preceded NZ ones. People found out about them from NZ press or social media.
I wonder if he would have acted, had Australia not embarassed itself with Bondi Beach disaster, or Jacinda's actions.
Australians are more open-minded than NZers imo, but in this case NZers drew the gold card with Jacinda Arden.



In saying that, it Can be seen to a degree where US, AU politicians were coming from.
They went by the Ebola/ SARS outbreaks in which the virus acted differently and Could be contained. And the perspective of this horrid recession would have stopped many in their tracks.

 

[sygn]

They weren't necessarily more proactive, they just had a government that didn't scoff at science at every turn because their moronic leader prefers to believe his gut instincts.

Or could it be because US doctors no longer have those centralized unions or associations --
which could have allowed them to coordinate themselves & act as one powerful voice on a national level?

 

[sygn]

They weren't necessarily more proactive, they just had a government that didn't scoff at science at every turn because their moronic leader prefers to believe his gut instincts.

Or did he?
Getting rid of CDC staff in China was beyond any excuse.....
But as for this crisis, Trump also followed the advice of the head of CDC.

I'm now listening to this Larry King epusode which makes a compelling case for sharing the blame with CDC headquarters, botched covid testing kits included.

Fmr. Rep. Bob Barr blames CDC for delayed response to COVID-19 pandemic
https://www.rt.com/shows/politicking-larry-king/484634-fmr-rep-bob-barr-blames/

 

[icanhelp1]

Jacinda Ardern (NZ) acted the very day the drs' petition was filed with the government.

but Scott Morris was a moron.
Unlike NZ press which at least published their doctors' petition in one newspaper,
Australian corporate press put under blackout All the doctors attempts, which preceded NZ ones. People found out about them from NZ press or social media.
I wonder if he would have acted, had Australia not embarassed itself with Bondi Beach disaster, or Jacinda's actions.
Australians are more open-minded than NZers imo, but in this case NZers drew the gold card with Jacinda Arden.



In saying that, it Can be seen to a degree where US, AU politicians were coming from.
They went by the Ebola/ SARS outbreaks in which the virus acted differently and Could be contained. And the perspective of this horrid recession would have stopped many in their tracks.

The controversy over the reliability of having a CDC representative in China:

Nevertheless, misleading reports about the Trump campaign's pandemic response efforts have continued to spread. A recent report by Reuters that the U.S. had recently terminated a CDC position in China was widely cited by Democrats and reporters as evidence of a lack of preparedness, and formed the basis for a reporter's question at a recent White House coronavirus briefing.

But, the article itself made clear that experts didn't think the move had anything to do with the spread of coronavirus in the United States.

"One disease expert told Reuters he was skeptical that the U.S. resident adviser would have been able to get earlier or better information to the Trump administration, given the Chinese government’s suppression of information," the outlet noted.

“In the end, based on circumstances in China, it probably wouldn’t have made a big difference,” former CDC epidemiologist and Emory University professor Scott McNabb told Reuters.

This is expert commentary on the effectiveness of a CDC agent in China. China hid the truth.

 

[icanhelp1]

You blame Obama, and defend Trump but you don't carry water for Trump... you ignore Trumps lies, blame shifting, eat up his verbal diarrhea of "well I wanted to do something, but I was advised against it", yet avoid the "there are only 15 cases and expect them to be zero very soon" ( not direct quotes, just going off memory)





Yah rght... Chuckles you do everything else though....



Show me one post I have made that I am taking shots the American people battling this???

Just one post, I fucking dare you!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Trump you can find a couple hundred....but, and here is the big thing, He is President....he is ultimately responsible for the welfare of his citizens....and it is perfectly fair to take pot shots at him, otherwise you all shut the FUCK UP about any other President.




Go check out Conager, or Harpy, or DPshelly's then or are you just fucking blind or choose to ignore them?

For others consideration below, I thought the conversation was relevant...






Note the 2009/2010 H1N1 Pandemic, who was president then?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic

oh and bridges are designed to Standards,set out by AASTHO, not through"risk assessments"....

Take your hypothetical A- E and stick em! Neither you nor I have any idea how previous presidents would have reacted, just another one of your dismal attempts to passively bash Trump and his admin.

It's obvious you hate Trump. You always gloss over the fact that most countries, countries even closer to China, are suffering from the same lack of response as we are. Critical data was hidden from the world, no country knew exactly what we were dealing with, person to person transmission data was hidden. I've posted several factual appraisals of the situation and if one fact supports Trump you go off on a Trump bashing tyrade.

You display an uncanny grasp of the obvious and your monday morning quarterbacking skills are fine tuned. You are the epitome of cut and paste and if it wasn't google, which by the way has very few conservative points of view and is perhaps the reason why your arguments are so flawed, you couldn't post as much crap as you do. Most of my supporting documentation exposes the positives and the negatives of Trump's admin dealings with covid. It's about the Truth not political. There are a whole bunch of things Trump says and many are not very flattering and many are self congratulatory in nature. Stop hanging on what he says and more on what he does. He's listening to his experts and is paying attention to the science. Your inability to see any good at all is why your credibility is flawed.



Go build your bridge to nowhere, I wasn't talking about bridges, you were, I was talking about the process of risk assessment not building bridges or standards.

 

[bellisarius]

Been tracking the model news Vat?

As predicted the "experts" are running away from their models as fast as they can double-talk to the press. It's so damn pathetic you have no choice but to laugh.

 

[zipman]

Except the Obama administration left the Trump administration a playbook on how to handle exactly this kind of epidemic that he promptly ignored because he knew better.

Lying sack of shit.

I think by now people know that you are the lying sack of shit. Why call me a liar on something so easily proven? Senility? Franzia? Inquiring minds want to know.

https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/obama-era-pandemic-playbook-was-thrown-shelf-n1170276

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/03/donald-trump-obama-pandemic-playbook

https://www.axios.com/trump-coronav...yc3thL6Y9Gx1fgpthPsZEfO-TSMCUN3iMVGERFJ2MlsrY

https://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2020/03/31/amanpour-beth-cameron-coronavirus.cnn

Ish, , the cowardly drunk still can't man up and say he was wrong.

Anyone surprised?

 

[jomar]

The playbook probably fell behind a cabinet when Bolton reshuffled the NSCs pandemic preparedness program to reduce redundancy and increase efficiency. Seems that didn’t turn out so well.

 

[SpeareChucker]

Echoes of what I have been pointing out
in an attempt to let rationality
moderate political panic:

Between 100,000 and 240,000 Americans could die from COVID-19 according to epidemiological model projections cited by coronavirus task force members during a White House press conference on Tuesday. "This could be a hell of a bad two weeks," said President Trump. "Or maybe even three weeks." Policies that have locked down the economies of the U.S. and many other countries are based to a considerable extent on the dire projections from a variety of epidemiological models. But are they right, asked my Reason colleague Jacob Sullum.

"I've looked at all the models. I've spent a lot of time on the models. They don't tell you anything. You can't really rely upon models," said Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, who functions as Trump's coronavirus guru, at a task force meeting, according to the Washington Post. And yet, here we are.

Crudely put, models need validation by matching their projections to actual data. In this case, the outputs of infectious disease models might be compared to how well their projections match data on infection, hospitalization, and mortality trends from past epidemics. Of course, certain parameters such as the basic reproduction number and attack rates will have to be adjusted to take into account the differences between, say, influenza viruses and the novel coronavirus.

It turns out that most infectious disease epidemiological models have not been validated by comparing their outputs to empirical data. A 2018 comprehensive review article in the journal Epidemic of 78 global disease spread models found that model validation is uncommon. Why? Most likely, the researchers suggest, because there is a lack of suitable validation data due to the fact that pandemics are relatively rare events.

A more scathing 2009 study in The American Journal of Epidemiology narrowly focused on the accuracy of various statistical methods for predicting the hospitalization rates of young children for respiratory syncytial virus and/or influenza by matching their projections to seven years of empirical data in Quebec. "No method provided accurate or consistent estimates for both viruses and outcomes," concluded the researchers. "Because major public health decisions are made and population programs are promoted on the basis of estimates from these statistical methods, investment in their careful validation is essential to guide rational public policy decisions. Until then, their limitations should be made explicit and estimates used cautiously."

Ronald Bailey, Reason.com

They have not been used cautiously...
They have been welded like Gallagher
going after a watermelon.


https://reason.com/2020/04/03/what-percentage-of-covid-19-patients-are-likely-to-die/

 

[HisArpy]

Echoes of what I have been pointing out
in an attempt to let rationality
moderate political panic:


Ronald Bailey, Reason.com

They have not been used cautiously...
They have been welded like Gallagher
going after a watermelon.


https://reason.com/2020/04/03/what-percentage-of-covid-19-patients-are-likely-to-die/

It's all the watermelons fault, it started it.

 

[hogjack]

Were any of the virus modelers involved in predicting the Hillary Clinton landslide victory?

 

[SpeareChucker]

Were any of the virus modelers involved in predicting the Hillary Clinton landslide victory?

*chuckle*


The media that promotes the models the say what they want to hear
certainly pushed the idea of inevitability, although, I don't know if
they relied upon model as much as intuition, which still
for partisan political purport, might still be true...

 

[hogjack]

The media that promotes...

Promoting a viewpoint is so much more fun than reporting facts!

 

[Adre]

After initially dismissing this health crisis as a flu that will miraculously disappear, Trump has jumped on the “hundreds of thousands deaths” notion only after he figured out the potential political advantage. Wait for him to claim 100% of the credit if the actual number comes in at say only 85,000. “Were it not for my early recognition of this awful pandemic—and immediate actions ordered—this surely would have been far worse. Safe to say I saved hundreds of thousands Americans.”

You can make book on it.

 

[zipman]

Still nothing Ish?

Come on, just admit it that I'm not a liar and there was a Pandemic playbook handed to the Trump administration.

 

[Conager]

After initially dismissing this health crisis as a flu that will miraculously disappear, Trump has jumped on the “hundreds of thousands deaths” notion only after he figured out the potential political advantage. Wait for him to claim 100% of the credit if the actual number comes in at say only 85,000. “Were it not for my early recognition of this awful pandemic—and immediate actions ordered—this surely would have been far worse. Safe to say I saved hundreds of thousands Americans.”

You can make book on it.

Your point is what?

Your idiotic team as per usual over-sold this. You did succeed in scaring the economy into a shutdown, so feel free to celebrate the economic disaster that follows, but after panicking everyone that Millions were going to die Trump's definitely going to look like a genius when Millions don't die. He also is a genius because he shut down flights from China when all of you idiots were saying that it was xenophobic to do so.

 

[SpeareChucker]

[voice=Adre]

I NEVER SAID THAT!
I might have implied it, but I assumed you were to stupid to get it.
After all, you don't hate Trump and everyone I know hates him,
so I must be right and you must be wrong!!!

[/voice]​

 

[bellisarius]

Echoes of what I have been pointing out
in an attempt to let rationality
moderate political panic:


Ronald Bailey, Reason.com

They have not been used cautiously...
They have been welded like Gallagher
going after a watermelon.


https://reason.com/2020/04/03/what-percentage-of-covid-19-patients-are-likely-to-die/

Still nothing Ish?

Come on, just admit it that I'm not a liar and there was a Pandemic playbook handed to the Trump administration.

You might try reading before you run your mouth.

 

[DeluxAuto]

Your point is what?

Your idiotic team as per usual over-sold this. You did succeed in scaring the economy into a shutdown, so feel free to celebrate the economic disaster that follows, but after panicking everyone that Millions were going to die Trump's definitely going to look like a genius when Millions don't die. He also is a genius because he shut down flights from China when all of you idiots were saying that it was xenophobic to do so.

You act like Dems are getting rich off the shutdown.