The Dangers of Junk Science.

[DeeZire]

Originally Posted by amicus

...I hold two things near and dear in my pursuits, the individual, his rights and liberties, and, Truth, Veritas, ....

....sooner or later, each will find his own level of competence and understanding and find his own sources of truth.

Amicus

If the truth you so revere can change depending on the source, does that not invalidate that truth? You may not have noticed, but whenever a truth threatens your rights as an individual, you reject that truth. By your rejection, you only prove that your Veritas is meaningless - nothing but a capitalized word signifying the opposite of what it implies.

Remember Bagdad Bob, the spokesman for Saddam? He would stand in front of the cameras claiming that Bagdad was not under attack, while bombs were exploding behind him. That is your brand of Veritas.

In the interest of credibility, I suggest you drop Veritas from your list of pursuits (unless you really relish the role of the clown.)

 

[amicus]

DeeZire

..."...If the truth you so revere can change depending on the source, does that not invalidate that truth? You may not have noticed, but whenever a truth threatens your rights as an individual, you reject that truth..."

~~~

A little clumsy, big Dee, it was you who suggested that a different source reveals a different truth, not I.

Truth, reality, can be perceived from infinite observation points and remain valid, as reality exists independent of the individual mind. And yes, the word, 'individual' is fundamental as reality is viewed through one set of eyes, yours only, we are not the Borg.

You and I and a few others with sufficient grey matter to comprehend, all part company when you imply but do not support, your concept of the universal hive mind of the collective.

Your words imply that your life choices are based on the collective will, for the good of the whole, to be sacrificed as needed.

I know, for certain, that you are lying through your teeth. You exist and function as a self interested individual, just like everyone else, except you are ashamed of it.

Amicus

 

[Epmd607]

DeeZire

Your words imply that your life choices are based on the collective will, for the good of the whole, to be sacrificed as needed.

I know, for certain, that you are lying through your teeth. You exist and function as a self interested individual, just like everyone else, except you are ashamed of it.

Amicus

Wow, Virtue of Selfishness almost word for word. Were you one of the many who licked her moldy clit back in the day? What if Amicus was Nathaniel Branden? We're onto you, you can't bring your institute here, no one's interested in it out there either. Altruism is alive and well.

 

[trysail]

I'm not that concerned over whether the mean earth temperature will rise by 3 degrees or 6 degrees over the next x years. In this climate debate there are some incontrovertible facts, such as:

(1)CO2 is a known greenhouse gas that absorbs and traps infrared radiation. This can be demonstrated in any lab.
(2)The mean temperature of the earth is increasing while the temperature of the stratosphere is decreasing, as predicted by simple greenhouse-gas GW theory.
(3)The levels of CO2 in the atmosphere are higher than they have been at any time during this current climatological era, and they are increasing. This increase is non-linear and is best explained by attributing it to anthropogenic causes.
(4)The rate of increase will itself increase (exponential curve) as more nations industrialize and bring more fossil-fueled plants and vehicles into existence. (Corollary: Sooner or later we're going to have to address the problem of CO2 emissions.)
(5)Controlling CO2 emissions would be more efficiently and economically done if done now rather than later.

That's it. That's pretty much the rationale behind my position on AGW.

(1) That is not what is being disputed; it is disingenuous of you to suggest otherwise.

(2) and (3)

... all projections of dangerous impacts hinge on climate sensitivity. (To be sure, the projections of catastrophe also depend on many factors besides warming itself.) Embarrassingly, the estimates of the equilibrium response to a doubling of CO2 have basically remained unchanged since 1979...

p. 35.
Professor Lindzen's lecture slides

IPCC ‘Consensus.’
"It is likely that most of the warming over the past 50 years is due to man’s emissions."
How was this arrived at?
What was done, was to take a large number of models that could not reasonably simulate known patterns of natural behavior (such as ENSO, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), claim that such models nonetheless accurately depicted natural internal climate variability, and use the fact that these models could not replicate the warming episode from the mid seventies through the mid nineties, to argue that forcing was necessary and that the forcing must have been due to man.
The argument makes arguments in support of intelligent design sound rigorous by comparison. It constitutes a rejection of scientific logic, while widely put forward as being ‘demanded’ by science.

Equally ironic, the fact that the global mean temperature anomaly ceased increasing by the mid nineties is acknowledged by modeling groups as contradicting the main underlying assumption of the so-called attribution argument (Smith et al, 2007, Keenlyside et al, 2008, Lateef, 2009). Yet the iconic statement continues to be repeated as authoritative gospel, and as implying catastrophe.

p. 33-34

-Richard Lindzen, Ph.D.
Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Atmospheric Sciences
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
October 26, 2009


The heart of the dispute revolves around climate sensitivity. Based on your statements, you— apparently— don't give a damn what evidence exists or does not exist with respect to climate sensitivity. Either that or you admit that you don't understand it.

The term "greenhouse effect" is unfortunate since it results in a false impression of the activity of so-called "greenhouse gases." An actual greenhouse works as a physical barrier to convection (the transfer of heat by currents in a fluid) while the atmosphere really facilitates convection so the impression of actual greenhouse-like activity in the Earth's atmosphere is incorrect.

This does seem to cause some confusion so, to highlight the distinction between actual greenhouses and Earth's inaccurately named greenhouse effect simply note that greenhouse temperatures are maintained by controlling the mixing air inside and outside the greenhouse (if it's too warm in the greenhouse you open a top and bottom window and let convective action displace warmed air with cool) while Earth's atmosphere is surrounded by the near-vacuum of space.

So, real greenhouses work mainly by modulating convection while the 'greenhouse effect' works by modulating radiation.

Are greenhouse gases like a blanket around the Earth?
No, for the same reason that they don't behave like an actual greenhouse, they simply do not behave as a barrier to convective activity and so aren't "like a blanket."

Forgetting about the unfortunate-but-commonly-used terminology for a moment, is the so-called 'greenhouse effect' bad?
No, it's necessary to maintain a habitable planet. Our moon, lacking greenhouse effect, makes a kind of comparison even though lack of atmosphere makes it uninhabitable regardless of temperature. The moon's mean surface temperature by day is 107 °C (380 K, 225 °F) and by night drops to -153 °C (120 K, -243 °F). The Lunar surface temperature increases about 260 °C from just before dawn to Lunar noon.

How much does the so-called 'greenhouse effect' warm the Earth?
It's estimated that the Earth's surface would be about -18 °C (0 °F, 255 K) with atmosphere and clouds but without the greenhouse effect and that the (we'll call it "natural") greenhouse effect raises the Earth's temperature by ~33 °C (59 °F).

We should note that devoid of atmosphere Earth would actually be a less-cold -1 °C (272 K) because the first calculation strangely includes 31% reflection of solar radiation by clouds (which obviously could not occur without an atmosphere) while ignoring that clouds add significantly to the greenhouse effect. Granted it's kind of a bizarre to include clouds in one half the calculation and not the other but that is the way it's commonly done, so, for simplicity, just stick with ~33 °C.


The workings: thermal equilibrium for an Earth without an atmosphere:
The sun behaves approximately like a black body of radius rs=6.599 x 105 Km, at a temperature of Ts=5,783 K. The radiative flux at the sun's surface is given by the expression σTs4, where σ is the Stefan-Boltzmann Constant (5.6704 x 10-8 Wm2K4). Flux refers to radiation per unit area. Thus, at the Earth's distance from the sun, res=1.496 x 108 Km, this flux is reduced by the factor (rs/res)2. The Earth's disk has a cross section, acs=πre2, where re is the Earth's radius (6.378 x 103 Km), and thus intercepts acsσTs4(rs/res)2 radiation from the sun. In order to balance this intercepted radiation, the Earth would warm to a temperature Te, where σTe44πre2 = acsσTs4(rs/res)2. This leads to a solution Te=272 K.

Clouds, which obviously require an atmosphere, and other features of the Earth reflect 31% of the incident radiation. Taking this into account reduces Te to 255 K.

Theoretically, if the planet's surface cooled by radiation alone, then the greenhouse-induced surface temperature would be much warmer, about 350 K (77 °C). Atmospheric motion (convective towers carrying latent and sensible heat upwards and large scale circulation carrying it both upwards and polewards) circumvent much of the greenhouse effect and significantly increase the "escape" of energy to space, leaving Earth's surface more than 60 °C cooler than a static atmosphere would do.

Additionally, greenhouse gases are only able to absorb radiation in very specific electromagnetic frequencies and Earth does not radiate limitless amounts of energy in the appropriate bandwidths. This means there is 'competition' for available energy and significant greenhouse potential is unrealized (carbon dioxide could absorb more than 3 times the energy it currently does in the atmosphere were it not for competition from clouds and water vapor, clouds alone could absorb 50% of available energy but manage to capture just 14% and so on...).

So, despite there being far more greenhouse gas in the atmosphere than required to achieve the current greenhouse effect, something which has been true since before humans discovered fire, evapo-transpiration and thermals transport heat higher in the atmosphere where radiation to space is increased. This is why Earth remains about 15 °C (288 K) rather than about 77 °C (350 K).

Wait a minute! Those aren't the numbers I learned!
Ah! Someone who remembers their science classes eh? Well, you got us. Reference works frequently list the planet's mean surface temperature as 16 °C (289 K, 61 °F); sometimes 15 °C (288 K, 59 °F) is mentioned and yes, these are about the expected temperatures by calculation -- in the 1960s and 1970s numbers as high as 65 °F (18 °C, 291 K) were popular but we haven't seen those for some time. Here we run into a little bit of a problem, however -- taking the Earth's temperature is no trivial task. In fact, even defining precisely what we mean by the absolute surface air temperature is challenging.

The absolute mean surface air temperature of the Earth is actually not known and there is no specification of exactly what we are trying to measure or how to go about doing so. No one knows what Earth's optimal temperature would be or how it could be knowingly and predictably adjusted even if an optimum could be agreed.

Do greenhouse gases trap the sun's radiation/'heat'?
Not to any great extent. The Sun, being much hotter than Earth, emits high energy, shortwave radiation while in response Earth emits longwave radiation. The cooler the portion of the Earth or atmosphere, the lower energy intensity, longer wave radiation is emitted (that old white hot, yellow hot, red hot thing).

Greenhouse gases are generally transparent to incoming solar radiation (they let most solar radiation through) and opaque to Earth's radiation (they absorb and transfer the Earth's infrared radiation by a variety of means). That said, oxygen and ozone do absorb incoming Ultraviolet (UV) radiation (<0.3µm) and water, ozone, oxygen and, to a tiny extent, carbon dioxide also absorb a small amount of incoming shortwave below the 3 micron (µm) wavelength range and it is mostly the UV absorption by ozone that causes warming in the stratosphere above the tropopause.

The tropopause is the boundary between the troposphere (which is based at the earth's surface and has temperature that decreases with height, extending about 10-50Km or 6-30 miles above the surface) and the stratosphere (which is a stable region of very low levels of vertical mixing above the troposphere).

Greenhouse gases do not really "trap Earth's heat" but could be fairly described as delaying the energy transfer from Earth to space. ("Trapping heat" implies that the energy is stuck in the system forever, which is a false notion.) Greenhouse gases do not emit energy in the same bandwidth in which they absorb energy and thus emissions from carbon dioxide are not absorbed by carbon dioxide.

http://www.junkscience.com/Greenhouse/Kiehl_Trenberth-1997_Fig7.jpg






==================================================



http://www.openletter-globalwarming.info/Site/open_letter.html

Regarding the National Policy Statement on Climate Change of the APS Council: An Open Letter to the Council of the American Physical Society


As physicists who are familiar with the science issues, and as current and past members of the American Physical Society, we the undersigned urge the Council to revise its current statement* on climate change as follows, so as to more accurately represent the current state of the science:


Greenhouse gas emissions, such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, accompany human industrial and agricultural activity. While substantial concern has been expressed that emissions may cause significant climate change, measured or reconstructed temperature records indicate that 20th and 21st century changes are neither exceptional nor persistent, and the historical and geological records show many periods warmer than today. In addition, there is an extensive scientific literature that examines beneficial effects of increased levels of carbon dioxide for both plants and animals.


Studies of a variety of natural processes, including ocean cycles and solar variability, indicate that they can account for variations in the Earth’s climate on the time scale of decades and centuries. Current climate models appear insufficiently reliable to properly account for natural and anthropogenic contributions to past climate change, much less project future climate.


The APS supports an objective scientific effort to understand the effects of all processes – natural and human --on the Earth’s climate and the biosphere’s response to climate change, and promotes technological options for meeting challenges of future climate changes, regardless of cause.

http://www.openletter-globalwarming.info/Site/signatures.html
<signed>

Harold M. Agnew
President, General Atomics Corporation (1979 -1984)
White House Science Councilor (1982 -1989)
Director, Los Alamos National Laboratory (1970 -1979)
E.O. Lawrence Award 1966, Enrico Fermi Award 1978, Los Alamos Medal (with H.A. Bethe) 2001
Member National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering; Fellow APS, AAAS

Sol Aisenberg
President, International Technology Group
Formerly Staff Member, MIT; Lecturer, Harvard Medical School;
Visiting Research Professor, Boston University

Ralph B. Alexander
Former Associate Professor of Physics
Wayne State University
President, R.B. Alexander & Associates
Technology and market analysis in environmentally friendly materials and coatings
Author, Global Warming False Alarm (Canterbury)

Moorad Alexanian
Professor of Physics and Physical Oceanography
University of North Carolina - Wilmington
Member Mexican Academy of Sciences, American Scientific Affiliation

Louis J. Allamandola
Director, Astrochemistry Laboratory
NASA Ames Research Center
Fellow APS, AAAS
Member ACS, American Astronomical Society, International Astronomical Union

James L. Allen
Engineer/Scientist
International Space Station Program
The Boeing Company (retired)

Eva Andrei
Professor of Physics
Rutgers University
Fellow APS

Robert H. Austin
Professor of Physics
Princeton University
Fellow APS, AAAS; APS Council: 1991-1994, 2007-2010
Member National Academy of Sciences, American Association of Arts and Sciences

Franco Battaglia,
Professor of Chemical Physics and Environmental Chemistry
University of Modena, Italy
Life Member APS

David J. Benard
Retired Aerospace Scientist
Co-Inventor of the Chemical Oxygen-Iodine Laser

Lev I. Berger
President
California Institute of Electronics and Materials Science
Author, Semiconductor Materials; and
Material and Device Characterization Measurements (CRC Press)

Stuart B. Berger
Research Fellow and Divisional Time-to-Market Manager
Xerox Corporation (retired)

Ami E. Berkowitz
Emeritus Professor of Physics
University of California at San Diego
Fellow APS

Barry L. Berman
Columbian Professor and Chair
Physics Department
The George Washington University
Fellow APS

Edwin X. Berry
Atmospheric Physicist, Climate Physics, LLC
Certified Consulting Meteorologist #180
Member American Meteorological Society

Frances M. Berting
Northern New Mexico Citizens Advisory Board and Committee (2000-present)
Los Alamos County Council (2001-2008)
Formerly Materials Scientist, Hanford (DOE), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory,
Westinghouse, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

Vladislav A. Bevc
Associate Professor, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey (retired);
Formerly Member of the Technical Staff, The Aerospace Corporation;
Physicist, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory;
Visiting Fellow, Hoover Institution (Stanford University)
Senior Member IEEE

Clifford Bruce Bigham
Atomic Energy of Canada, Ltd. (retired)
Senior Member APS, Sustaining Member CAP

Arie Bodek
George E. Pake Professor of Physics
University of Rochester
Wolfgang K. H. Panofsky Prize in Experimental Particle Physics (APS) 2004
Fellow APS

John W. Boring
Professor Emeritus of Engineering Physics
University of Virginia

Lowell S. Brown
Emeritus Professor of Physics
University of Washington
Scientific Staff Member, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Fellow APS, AAAS

Daniel M. Bubb
Associate Professor and Chair
Department of Physics
Rutgers University, Camden

Timothy D. Calvin
President, Bearfoot Corporation (retired)
Fabricated rubber products for the DOD, shoe and automobile industries
Member ACS

Mark L. Campbell
Professor, Department of Chemistry
United States Naval Academy
Life Member APS

Gregory H. Canavan
Senior Fellow and Scientific Advisor,
Los Alamos National Laboratory
Fellow APS

Jack G. Castle
Senior Scientist
Sandia National Laboratories (retired)
Fellow and Life Member APS

Joseph F. Chiang
Professor and Former Chairman
Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry
State University of New York, Oneonta
Life Member APS

Roger W. Cohen
Manager, Strategic Planning and Programs
ExxonMobil Corporation (retired)
Otto Schade Prize (Society for Information Display) 2006
Fellow APS

Barry D. Crane
Project Director
Institute for Defense Analyses
Life Member APS

Steven R. Cranmer
Astrophysicist, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics
Karen Harvey Prize (AAS) 2006
Associate Editor, Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics
Member American Astronomical Society, American Geophysical Union

J. F. Cuderman
Distinguished Member of the Technical Staff
Sandia National Laboratories (retired),
Life Member APS

Jerry M. Cuttler
President, Cuttler and Associates, Inc.
Engineering, consulting, and licensing services for the nuclear power industry
President, Canadian Nuclear Society (1995-1996)
Fellow Canadian Nuclear Society, Member American Nuclear Society

James H. Degnan
Principal Physicist
Directed Energy Directorate
Air Force Research Laboratory
Fellow APS

Joseph G. Depp
Founding President and CEO, Accuray Incorporated (retired)
Stereotactic radiosurgery technology
Founding President and CEO, PsiStar Incorporated
Life Member APS

Riccardo DeSalvo
Senior Scientist
Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Observatory (LIGO)
California Institute of Technology
Member ASME

James A. Deye
Nuclear and Medical physicist
Life Member APS

Eugene H. Dirk
APS Division of Astrophysics, and
Division of Computational Physics
Topical Groups on Gravity, and
Precision Measurement and Fundamental Constants

David H. Douglass
Professor of Physics
University of Rochester
Fellow APS

Paul J. Drallos
President and CEO, Plasma Dynamics Corporation (retired)
Kinetic & fluid dynamic computer simulation services

Murray Dryer
Emeritus Scientist
Space Weather Prediction Center (retired), NWS
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Member American Astronomical Society, American Geophysical Union, AIAA

William T. Duffy Jr.
Professor Emeritus of Physics
Santa Clara University

David F. Edwards
Physicist, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (retired)
Formerly Los Alamos National Laboratory;
Professor of Physics and Electrical Engineering, Colorado State University;
Lincoln Laboratory, MIT

Albert G. Engelhardt
President and CEO, Enfitek, Inc.
Environmental control and security systems
Senior Life Member IEEE

James E. Enstrom
Research Professor
Jonsson Comprehensive Cancer Center
University of California at Los Angeles
Life Member APS

Jens G. Feder
Professor of Physics of Geological Processes
University of Oslo
Fellow APS

Douglas E. Fields
Associate Professor
Department of Physics and Astronomy
University of New Mexico

Michael M. Fitelson
Chief Scientist, Micro-Systems Enablers
Northrop Grumman Electronic Systems

Harold K. Forsen
Senior Vice President, Bechtel Corporation (retired)
Governing Board, National Research Council (1994-2003)
Foreign Secretary, National Academy of Engineering (1995-2003)
Arthur Holly Compton Award (ANS) 1972
Member National Academy of Engineering; Fellow APS, ANS, American Academy of Arts and Sciences

Bruce L. Freeman
Senior Experimental Physicist, Ktech Corporation
Formerly Professor of Nuclear Engineering, Texas A&M
Coauthor Explosively Driven Pulsed Power (Springer);
Explosive Pulsed Power (Imperial College)
Member IEEE Plasma Sciences, Directed Energy Professional Society

Peter D. Friedman
Associate Professor of Mechanical Engineering
University of Massachusetts Dartmouth
Member American Geophysical Union, ASME, American Nuclear Society

Michael H. Frese
Designer/Developer of Multiphysics
Simulation Codes and Applications
Founder and Managing Member of NumerEx, LLC
Member SIAM, IEEE

Ian J. Fritz
Research Physicist, Sandia National Laboratories (retired)
R&D 100 Award 1991
Basic Energy Sciences Sustained Outstanding Achievement Award (DOE) 1993
Lockheed Martin NOVA Award 2001

Rodger L. Gamblin
Managing Director
Corona Color, LLC

John C. Garth
Research Physicist
Air Force Research Laboratory (retired)
Member ANS, ASTM, American Association of Physicists in Medicine,
Computational Medical Physics Working Group

G. Roger Gathers
Senior Scientist, M. H. Chew and Associates
Physicist, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (1967-1993)
Author, Selected Topics in Shock Wave Physics and
Equation of State Modeling (World Scientific Publishing)

Gary J. Gerardi
Professor, Department of Chemistry and Physics
William Paterson University

Ivar Giaever
Institute Professor, School of Engineering and School of Science
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute
Nobel Prize in Physics 1973
Member National Academy of Science, National Academy of Engineering; Fellow APS

George T. Gillies
Research Professor, School of Engineering and Applied Science; and
Research Professor, Department of Physics
University of Virginia
Clinical Professor, Department of Neurosurgery, Virginia Commonwealth University
Fellow APS

Damon Giovanielli
President, Sumner Associates scientific consultants
Former Division Leader, Physics Division
Los Alamos National Laboratory
LANL staff member, program and line manager (1972-1993)
Fellow AAAS

Albert Gold
Associate Dean of Engineering and Applied Sciences
Harvard University (retired)

Ronald B. Goldfarb
National Institute of Standards and Technology
Life Member APS

Laurence I. Gould
Professor of Physics
University of Hartford
Member Executive Board of the New England Section of the APS
Chairman (2004), New England Section APS

Paul M. Grant
EPRI Science Fellow (retired)
IBM Research Staff Member Emeritus
Senior Life Fellow APS

Howard D. Greyber
University of Pennsylvania (retired)
Formerly Princeton University, LLNL Theory Group, Northeastern University
Member American Astronomical Society, Fellow Royal Astronomical Society

Ronald J. Gripshover
Senior Research Physicist
Naval Surface Weapons Center (retired)

Mike Gruntman
Professor of Astronautics
University of Southern California
Author, Blazing the Trail. The Early History of Spacecraft and Rocketry (AIAA)
Luigi G. Napolitano Book Award (International Academy of Astronautics) 2006
Member American Geophysical Union, Associate Fellow AIAA

George Hacken
Senior Director, Safety-Critical Systems
New York City Transit Authority
Formerly Senior Member of the Technical Staff, GEC-Marconi Aerospace
Chair, New York Chapter, IEEE Computer Society
Member AMS, SIAM, ANS, AIAA, New York Academy of Sciences

David S. Hacker
Senior Staff Research Engineer
Amoco Corporation (retired)
Associate Professor of Chemical Engineering
University of Illinois, Chicago Circle (1965-1981)
Fellow AIChE

Sultan Hameed
Professor of Atmospheric Science
School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences
Stony Brook University, New York

William Happer
Cyrus Fogg Brackett Professor of Physics
Princeton University
Fellow APS, AAAS
Member National Academy of Sciences

Howard C. Hayden
Emeritus Professor of Physics
University of Connecticut
Editor, The Energy Advocate
Author, A Primer on CO2 and Climate (Vales Lake)

Dennis B. Hayes
Research Physicist
Los Alamos, Sandia, and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories
President, Lockheed Martin Nevada Technologies, Inc. (retired)
Fellow APS

Jack M. Hollander
Professor Emeritus of Energy and Resources, University of California, Berkeley
Vice-President Emeritus, The Ohio State University
First Head, Energy and Environment Division, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory
Fellow APS, AAAS

David B. Holtkamp
Scientific Staff Member, Physics Division
Los Alamos National Laboratory

John C. Ingraham
Scientific Staff Member
Los Alamos National Laboratory (retired)
Member American Geophysical Union

Helen Jackson
Research Physicist, Air Force Research Laboratory
Wright Laboratory
Member Materials Research Society, IEEE

H. Richard Johnson
Co-Founder and Former CEO
Watkins-Johnson Company (retired)
Life Fellow IEEE, Member National Academy of Engineering

James R. Johnson
3M Company (retired)
Member Carlton Society (3M Hall of Fame)
Member National Academy of Engineering

O’Dean Judd
LANL Fellow
Los Alamos National Laboratory (retired)
Technical Advisor and Consultant
Fellow APS, IEEE, AAAS

Andrew Kaldor
Distinguished Scientific Advisor
Manager of Breakthrough Research
ExxonMobil Corporation (retired)
Fellow AAAS, Member ACS

Alexander E. Kaplan
Professor, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering
The Johns Hopkins University
Max Born Award (Optical Society of America) 2005
Alexander von Humboldt Award (von Humboldt Foundation) 1996
Fellow OSA

Thomas J. Karr
Director in the Advanced Concepts & Technology Division
Northrop Grumman Electronic Systems
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (1984-1996)
Editor, Applied Optics (1991-1994)
Member OSA, AAAS; Senior Member IEEE

Jonathan Katz
Professor of Physics
Washington University

William E. Keller
Leader, Low Temperature Physics Group 1971-1985
Los Alamos National Laboratory (retired)
Fellow APS

John M. Kennel
Autonetics Division,
Boeing North American (retired)
Formerly Electronics Division,
Northrop Grumman Corporation
Member AAAS, AIAA

Paul I. Kingsbury
Manager, Physical Properties Research Department
Corning Inc.(retired)

Robert S. Knox
Professor of Physics Emeritus
University of Rochester
Member APS Council 1985-1988
Fellow APS

M. Kristiansen
C.B.Thornton/P.W.Horn Professor
Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering
Texas Tech University
Fellow APS, IEEE

Moyses Kuchnir
Applied Scientist
Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (retired)
Life Member APS, Member IEEE, AAAS

Joseph A. Kunc
Professor, Physics and Astronomy
University of Southern California
Fellow APS

Paul L. La Celle
Professor, Department of Biomedical Engineering
Former Chair, Department of Biophysics
University of Rochester
Alexander von Humboldt Senior Fellow,
Max Planck Institute for Biophysics, Frankfort

Robert E. LeLevier
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (1951-1957)
Physics Department, RAND Corp (1957-1971)
R&D Associates (1971-1983)
Eos Technologies, Inc. (1983-1993)

Robert E. Levine
Industrial and Defense Physics and Engineering (retired)
Member ACM, IEEE

Harold W. Lewis
Professor of Physics Emeritus
University of California at Santa Barbara
Chairman, Defense Science Board Panel on Nuclear Winter
Fellow APS, AAAS; Chairman, APS Reactor Safety Study

John D. Lindl
James Clerk Maxwell Prize for Plasma Physics (APS) 2007
Fellow APS, AAAS

Gabriel G. Lombardi
Senior Scientist, Phase Coherence, Inc.
National Research Council Associate (NIST, 1980-82)
Life Member APS, Member OSA

Michael D. Lubin
Colonel,
United States Air Force (retired)

Alfred U. MacRae
President, MacRae Technologies
Member National Academy of Engineering; Fellow APS, IEEE,

Phillip W. Mange
Associate Superintendent, Space Science Division
Scientific Consultant to the Director of Research,
Naval Research Laboratory (retired)

John E. Mansfield
Vice Chairman
Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board

Joseph Maserjian
Senior Research Scientist,
California Institute of Technology --
Jet Propulsion Laboratory (retired)

John H. McAdoo
Aerospace Physicist
Member IEEE, AAAS

Thomas A. McClelland
Vice President, Commercial Products
Frequency Electronics, Inc.

Harold Mirels
Principal Scientist,
The Aerospace Corporation (retired)
Fellow APS, AIAA
Member National Academy of Engineering

Jim Mitroy
Lecturer in Physics, School of Engineering and Information Technology
Charles Darwin University, Australia

Michael Monce
Professor of Physics, Astronomy, and Geophysics
Connecticut College
Member AAPT, American Geophysical Union

Nasif Nahle
Scientific Research Director
Biology Cabinet, Mexico
Member AAAS, NYAS

Rodney W. Nichols
President and CEO, New York Academy of Sciences (1992-2001)
Vice President and Executive Vice President, The Rockefeller University (1970-1990)
Secretary of Defense Medal for Distinguished Meritorious Civilian Service (1970)
Fellow AAAS, NYAS

Gordon C. Oehler
Senior Fellow, Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
Working Group Chairman, Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States.
Corporate Vice President for Corporate Development, SAIC (1998-2004)
National Intelligence Officer for Science, Technology and Proliferation (1989-1992)

William P. Oliver
Professor of Physics
Tufts University
Life Member APS

Frank R. Paolini
Adjunct Professor of Physics, University of Connecticut at Stamford (retired)
Senior Member APS, Member IEEE

Daniel N. Payton III
Senior Scientist, SAIC (1992-present)
Eos Technologies (1984-1992)
Technical Director of Nuclear Technology
Air Force Weapons Laboratory (1976-1984)

Erik M. Pell
Xerox Corporation (retired)
Author: From Dreams to Riches – The Story of Xerography (Carlson)
Edward Goodrich Acheson Medal (Electrochemical Society) 1986
President, Electrochemical Society (1980-1981)
Fellow APS, Honorary Member ECS, Senior Member IEEE

Thomas E. Phipps, Jr.
Physicist (retired)
Operations Evaluation Group, MIT
US Naval Ordnance Laboratory
Senior Member APS

John X. Przybysz

Donald Rapp
Chief Technologist, Mechanical and Chemical Systems,
Jet Propulsion Laboratory (retired)
Professor of Physics and Environmental Engineering, University of Texas (1973-1979)
Author, Assessing Climate Change and Ice Ages and Interglacials (Springer-Verlag)
Fellow APS

Ned S. Rasor
Consulting Physicist
Formerly President and CEO, Rasor Associates, Inc.
Member IEEE, AIAA

Richard T. Rauch
NASA Stennis Space Center
Life Member APS, Associate Fellow AIAA

John E. Rhoads
Professor of Physics
Midwestern State University (retired)
Member SPE

Harry I. Ringermacher
Sr. Research Physicist
General Electric Global Research Center
AIP "History of Physics in Industry" Participant at GE
Sir William Herschel Medal (American Academy of Thermology)
Copper Black Award (American Mensa) 2003 and 2007

Stanley Robertson
Emeritus Professor of Physics
Southwestern Oklahoma State University

Robert C. Rohr
Reactor Physicist
Knolls Atomic Power Laboratory (retired)
Former Adjunct Professor of Nuclear Engineering,
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute

Berol Robinson
Principal Scientific Officer
UNESCO (retired)
Member AAPT, AAAS, Association des Écologistes Pour le Nucléaire

Daniel J. Rogers
Staff Scientist
Applied Information Sciences Department
Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory
Member OSA

Kelly R. Roos
Professor of Physics
Bradley University

Isaac C. Sanchez
William J. Murray, Jr. Chair in Engineering and Associate Chair
Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Texas at Austin
U.S. Department of Commerce Medals 1980, 1983
Edward U. Condon Award (NIST) 1983; SPE International Research Award 1996
Member National Academy of Engineering, Fellow APS

Raymond E. Sarwinski
President, Cryogenic Designs, Inc.
Life Member APS

Nicola Scafetta
Research Scientist, Physics Department, Duke University
Member American Geophysical Union

Mark D. Semon
Professor, Department of Physics and Astronomy
Bates College
Member American Academy of Forensic Scientists, American College of Forensic Examiners

Thomas P. Sheahen
President/ CEO, Western Technology, Inc. (energy sciences consulting)
Member AAAS; APS Congressional Science Fellowship (1977-78)
Author, Introduction to High Temperature Superconductivity (Springer)

Arnold J. Sierk
Technical Staff Member
Theoretical Division
Los Alamos National Laboratory
Fellow APS

Joseph Silverman
Professor Emeritus of Nuclear Engineering,
Department of Materials Science and Engineering
University of Maryland
Fellow APS, ANS

S. Fred Singer
Professor of Environmental Sciences Emeritus
University of Virginia
First Director of the National Weather Satellite Service
Fellow APS, AAAS, American Geophysical Union

Frans W. Sluijter
Professor, Department of Applied Physics
Eindhoven University of Technology
Former Chair, Plasma Physics Division, European Physics Society
Former Vice President, International Union of Pure and Applied Physics
Member Dutch Physical Society, Institute of Physics UK

John R. Smith
Project Physicist, Experimental High Energy Physics
Department of Physics
University of California, Davis
Life Member APS

Hermann Statz
Raytheon Corporation (retired)
Microwave Pioneer Award (IEEE) 2004
Fellow APS

Nick Steph
Chair, Department of Physics
Franklin College
Member AAPT, ACS

Peter Stilbs
Professor of Physical Chemistry
Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Stockholm, Sweden
Life Member APS

Norman D. Stockwell
Senior Project Engineer, TRW (retired)
Former Member of the Technical Staff, The Aerospace Corporation
Life Member APS, Member AAAS

Thomas F. Stratton
Fellow, Los Alamos National Laboratory (retired)
Fellow APS

William R. Stratton
Scientific Staff Member
Los Alamos National Laboratory (retired)
Member AEC Advisory Committee on Reactor Safety
Chair ANS Nuclear Reactor Accident Study
Fellow ANS

Szymon Suckewer
Professor of School of Engineering & Applied Sciences
Director of Plasma Science & Technology Program
Princeton University
Fellow APS, OSA

Ronald M. Sundelin
Associate Director, DOE Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (retired)
Commonwealth Professor Emeritus of Physics, Virginia Tech
Fellow APS

Willard L. Talbert
Scientific Consultant (1993-present)
Scientific Staff Member, Los Alamos National Laboratory, 1976-1993 (retired)
Professor of Physics, Iowa State University (1961-1976)
Fellow APS

Lu Ting
Professor Emeritus of Mathematics
Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University
Lead Author, Vortex Dominated Flows (Applied Mathematical Sciences, Springer)
Member SIAM, AIAA, AAM

Frank J. Tipler
Professor of Mathematical Physics
Tulane University
Coauthor, The Anthropic Cosmological Principle (Oxford University Press)

Salvatore Torquato
Professor of Chemistry and the Princeton Center for Theoretical Science,
Materials Institute and Applied & Computational Mathematics
Princeton University
2009 APS David Alder Lectureship Award in the Field of Material Physics
Fellow APS

Rusty S. Towell
Professor of Physics
Abilene Christian University
Member IEEE

Edward S. Troy
Principal Engineer
Aerospace Consulting
Wireless, RF, microwave, analog/DSP, and GPS circuits and systems
Member IEEE, AAAS

William B. Walters
Professor of Chemistry and Biochemistry, University of Maryland
John Simon Guggenheim Fellow (1986)
ACS Award in Nuclear Chemistry (2001)
Alexander von Humboldt Senior Fellow, University of Mainz (2002)
Life Member APS, Member ACS

Samuel A. Werner
Curators’ Professor Emeritus
The University of Missouri
Guest Researcher, NIST
Fellow APS, AAAS

Bruce J. West
Adjunct Professor of Physics
Duke University
Fellow APS

Peter J. Wojtowicz
Group Head, Senior Member Technical Staff (retired)
RCA Labs, GE, Sarnoff Corporation
Fellow APS

Ya-Hong Xie
Professor of Materials Science and Engineering
University of California at Los Angeles
Senior Member IEEE, Member Materials Research Society

M. John Yoder
Principal Physicist
The MITRE Corporation
Life Member APS

Claude Zeller
Principal Fellow
Pitney Bowles Inc.
Member IEEE

Martin V. Zombeck
Physicist, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics (retired)
Author, Handbook of Space Astronomy and Astrophysics (Cambridge University Press)
Coauthor, High Resolution X-Ray Spectroscopy of Cosmic Plasmas (Cambridge University Press)

 

[Epmd607]

(1) That is not what is being disputed; it is disingenuous of you to suggest otherwise.

(2) and (3) p. 35.

p. 33-34

-Richard Lindzen, Ph.D.
Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Atmospheric Sciences
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
October 26, 2009


The heart of the dispute revolves around climate sensitivity. Based on your statements, you— apparently— don't give a damn what evidence exists or does not exist with respect to climate sensitivity. Either that or you admit that you don't understand it.









http://www.junkscience.com/Greenhouse/Kiehl_Trenberth-1997_Fig7.jpg






==================================================



http://www.openletter-globalwarming.info/Site/open_letter.html

Regarding the National Policy Statement on Climate Change of the APS Council: An Open Letter to the Council of the American Physical Society


As physicists who are familiar with the science issues, and as current and past members of the American Physical Society, we the undersigned urge the Council to revise its current statement* on climate change as follows, so as to more accurately represent the current state of the science:


Greenhouse gas emissions, such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, accompany human industrial and agricultural activity. While substantial concern has been expressed that emissions may cause significant climate change, measured or reconstructed temperature records indicate that 20th 21st century changes are neither exceptional nor persistent, and the historical and geological records show many periods warmer than today. In addition, there is an extensive scientific literature that examines beneficial effects of increased levels of carbon dioxide for both plants and animals.


Studies of a variety of natural processes, including ocean cycles and solar variability, indicate that they can account for variations in the Earth’s climate on the time scale of decades and centuries. Current climate models appear insufficiently reliable to properly account for natural and anthropogenic contributions to past climate change, much less project future climate.


The APS supports an objective scientific effort to understand the effects of all processes – natural and human --on the Earth’s climate and the biosphere’s response to climate change, and promotes technological options for meeting challenges of future climate changes, regardless of cause.

http://www.openletter-globalwarming.info/Site/signatures.html
<signed>

Harold M. Agnew
President, General Atomics Corporation (1979 -1984)
White House Science Councilor (1982 -1989)
Director, Los Alamos National Laboratory (1970 -1979)
E.O. Lawrence Award 1966, Enrico Fermi Award 1978, Los Alamos Medal (with H.A. Bethe) 2001
Member National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering; Fellow APS, AAAS

Sol Aisenberg
President, International Technology Group
Formerly Staff Member, MIT; Lecturer, Harvard Medical School;
Visiting Research Professor, Boston University

Ralph B. Alexander
Former Associate Professor of Physics
Wayne State University
President, R.B. Alexander & Associates
Technology and market analysis in environmentally friendly materials and coatings
Author, Global Warming False Alarm (Canterbury)

Moorad Alexanian
Professor of Physics and Physical Oceanography
University of North Carolina - Wilmington
Member Mexican Academy of Sciences, American Scientific Affiliation

Louis J. Allamandola
Director, Astrochemistry Laboratory
NASA Ames Research Center
Fellow APS, AAAS
Member ACS, American Astronomical Society, International Astronomical Union

James L. Allen
Engineer/Scientist
International Space Station Program
The Boeing Company (retired)

Eva Andrei
Professor of Physics
Rutgers University
Fellow APS

Robert H. Austin
Professor of Physics
Princeton University
Fellow APS, AAAS; APS Council: 1991-1994, 2007-2010
Member National Academy of Sciences, American Association of Arts and Sciences

Franco Battaglia,
Professor of Chemical Physics and Environmental Chemistry
University of Modena, Italy
Life Member APS

David J. Benard
Retired Aerospace Scientist
Co-Inventor of the Chemical Oxygen-Iodine Laser

Lev I. Berger
President
California Institute of Electronics and Materials Science
Author, Semiconductor Materials; and
Material and Device Characterization Measurements (CRC Press)

Stuart B. Berger
Research Fellow and Divisional Time-to-Market Manager
Xerox Corporation (retired)

Ami E. Berkowitz
Emeritus Professor of Physics
University of California at San Diego
Fellow APS

Barry L. Berman
Columbian Professor and Chair
Physics Department
The George Washington University
Fellow APS

Edwin X. Berry
Atmospheric Physicist, Climate Physics, LLC
Certified Consulting Meteorologist #180
Member American Meteorological Society

Frances M. Berting
Northern New Mexico Citizens Advisory Board and Committee (2000-present)
Los Alamos County Council (2001-2008)
Formerly Materials Scientist, Hanford (DOE), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory,
Westinghouse, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

Vladislav A. Bevc
Associate Professor, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey (retired);
Formerly Member of the Technical Staff, The Aerospace Corporation;
Physicist, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory;
Visiting Fellow, Hoover Institution (Stanford University)
Senior Member IEEE

Clifford Bruce Bigham
Atomic Energy of Canada, Ltd. (retired)
Senior Member APS, Sustaining Member CAP

Arie Bodek
George E. Pake Professor of Physics
University of Rochester
Wolfgang K. H. Panofsky Prize in Experimental Particle Physics (APS) 2004
Fellow APS

John W. Boring
Professor Emeritus of Engineering Physics
University of Virginia

Lowell S. Brown
Emeritus Professor of Physics
University of Washington
Scientific Staff Member, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Fellow APS, AAAS

Daniel M. Bubb
Associate Professor and Chair
Department of Physics
Rutgers University, Camden

Timothy D. Calvin
President, Bearfoot Corporation (retired)
Fabricated rubber products for the DOD, shoe and automobile industries
Member ACS

Mark L. Campbell
Professor, Department of Chemistry
United States Naval Academy
Life Member APS

Gregory H. Canavan
Senior Fellow and Scientific Advisor,
Los Alamos National Laboratory
Fellow APS

Jack G. Castle
Senior Scientist
Sandia National Laboratories (retired)
Fellow and Life Member APS

Joseph F. Chiang
Professor and Former Chairman
Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry
State University of New York, Oneonta
Life Member APS

Roger W. Cohen
Manager, Strategic Planning and Programs
ExxonMobil Corporation (retired)
Otto Schade Prize (Society for Information Display) 2006
Fellow APS

Barry D. Crane
Project Director
Institute for Defense Analyses
Life Member APS

Steven R. Cranmer
Astrophysicist, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics
Karen Harvey Prize (AAS) 2006
Associate Editor, Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics
Member American Astronomical Society, American Geophysical Union

J. F. Cuderman
Distinguished Member of the Technical Staff
Sandia National Laboratories (retired),
Life Member APS

Jerry M. Cuttler
President, Cuttler and Associates, Inc.
Engineering, consulting, and licensing services for the nuclear power industry
President, Canadian Nuclear Society (1995-1996)
Fellow Canadian Nuclear Society, Member American Nuclear Society

James H. Degnan
Principal Physicist
Directed Energy Directorate
Air Force Research Laboratory
Fellow APS

Joseph G. Depp
Founding President and CEO, Accuray Incorporated (retired)
Stereotactic radiosurgery technology
Founding President and CEO, PsiStar Incorporated
Life Member APS

Riccardo DeSalvo
Senior Scientist
Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Observatory (LIGO)
California Institute of Technology
Member ASME

James A. Deye
Nuclear and Medical physicist
Life Member APS

Eugene H. Dirk
APS Division of Astrophysics, and
Division of Computational Physics
Topical Groups on Gravity, and
Precision Measurement and Fundamental Constants

David H. Douglass
Professor of Physics
University of Rochester
Fellow APS

Paul J. Drallos
President and CEO, Plasma Dynamics Corporation (retired)
Kinetic & fluid dynamic computer simulation services

Murray Dryer
Emeritus Scientist
Space Weather Prediction Center (retired), NWS
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Member American Astronomical Society, American Geophysical Union, AIAA

William T. Duffy Jr.
Professor Emeritus of Physics
Santa Clara University

David F. Edwards
Physicist, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (retired)
Formerly Los Alamos National Laboratory;
Professor of Physics and Electrical Engineering, Colorado State University;
Lincoln Laboratory, MIT

Albert G. Engelhardt
President and CEO, Enfitek, Inc.
Environmental control and security systems
Senior Life Member IEEE

James E. Enstrom
Research Professor
Jonsson Comprehensive Cancer Center
University of California at Los Angeles
Life Member APS

Jens G. Feder
Professor of Physics of Geological Processes
University of Oslo
Fellow APS

Douglas E. Fields
Associate Professor
Department of Physics and Astronomy
University of New Mexico

Michael M. Fitelson
Chief Scientist, Micro-Systems Enablers
Northrop Grumman Electronic Systems

Harold K. Forsen
Senior Vice President, Bechtel Corporation (retired)
Governing Board, National Research Council (1994-2003)
Foreign Secretary, National Academy of Engineering (1995-2003)
Arthur Holly Compton Award (ANS) 1972
Member National Academy of Engineering; Fellow APS, ANS, American Academy of Arts and Sciences

Bruce L. Freeman
Senior Experimental Physicist, Ktech Corporation
Formerly Professor of Nuclear Engineering, Texas A&M
Coauthor Explosively Driven Pulsed Power (Springer);
Explosive Pulsed Power (Imperial College)
Member IEEE Plasma Sciences, Directed Energy Professional Society

Peter D. Friedman
Associate Professor of Mechanical Engineering
University of Massachusetts Dartmouth
Member American Geophysical Union, ASME, American Nuclear Society

Michael H. Frese
Designer/Developer of Multiphysics
Simulation Codes and Applications
Founder and Managing Member of NumerEx, LLC
Member SIAM, IEEE

Ian J. Fritz
Research Physicist, Sandia National Laboratories (retired)
R&D 100 Award 1991
Basic Energy Sciences Sustained Outstanding Achievement Award (DOE) 1993
Lockheed Martin NOVA Award 2001

Rodger L. Gamblin
Managing Director
Corona Color, LLC

John C. Garth
Research Physicist
Air Force Research Laboratory (retired)
Member ANS, ASTM, American Association of Physicists in Medicine,
Computational Medical Physics Working Group

G. Roger Gathers
Senior Scientist, M. H. Chew and Associates
Physicist, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (1967-1993)
Author, Selected Topics in Shock Wave Physics and
Equation of State Modeling (World Scientific Publishing)

Gary J. Gerardi
Professor, Department of Chemistry and Physics
William Paterson University

Ivar Giaever
Institute Professor, School of Engineering and School of Science
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute
Nobel Prize in Physics 1973
Member National Academy of Science, National Academy of Engineering; Fellow APS

George T. Gillies
Research Professor, School of Engineering and Applied Science; and
Research Professor, Department of Physics
University of Virginia
Clinical Professor, Department of Neurosurgery, Virginia Commonwealth University
Fellow APS

Damon Giovanielli
President, Sumner Associates scientific consultants
Former Division Leader, Physics Division
Los Alamos National Laboratory
LANL staff member, program and line manager (1972-1993)
Fellow AAAS

Albert Gold
Associate Dean of Engineering and Applied Sciences
Harvard University (retired)

Ronald B. Goldfarb
National Institute of Standards and Technology
Life Member APS

Laurence I. Gould
Professor of Physics
University of Hartford
Member Executive Board of the New England Section of the APS
Chairman (2004), New England Section APS

Paul M. Grant
EPRI Science Fellow (retired)
IBM Research Staff Member Emeritus
Senior Life Fellow APS

Howard D. Greyber
University of Pennsylvania (retired)
Formerly Princeton University, LLNL Theory Group, Northeastern University
Member American Astronomical Society, Fellow Royal Astronomical Society

Ronald J. Gripshover
Senior Research Physicist
Naval Surface Weapons Center (retired)

Mike Gruntman
Professor of Astronautics
University of Southern California
Author, Blazing the Trail. The Early History of Spacecraft and Rocketry (AIAA)
Luigi G. Napolitano Book Award (International Academy of Astronautics) 2006
Member American Geophysical Union, Associate Fellow AIAA

George Hacken
Senior Director, Safety-Critical Systems
New York City Transit Authority
Formerly Senior Member of the Technical Staff, GEC-Marconi Aerospace
Chair, New York Chapter, IEEE Computer Society
Member AMS, SIAM, ANS, AIAA, New York Academy of Sciences

David S. Hacker
Senior Staff Research Engineer
Amoco Corporation (retired)
Associate Professor of Chemical Engineering
University of Illinois, Chicago Circle (1965-1981)
Fellow AIChE

Sultan Hameed
Professor of Atmospheric Science
School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences
Stony Brook University, New York

William Happer
Cyrus Fogg Brackett Professor of Physics
Princeton University
Fellow APS, AAAS
Member National Academy of Sciences

Howard C. Hayden
Emeritus Professor of Physics
University of Connecticut
Editor, The Energy Advocate
Author, A Primer on CO2 and Climate (Vales Lake)

Dennis B. Hayes
Research Physicist
Los Alamos, Sandia, and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories
President, Lockheed Martin Nevada Technologies, Inc. (retired)
Fellow APS

Jack M. Hollander
Professor Emeritus of Energy and Resources, University of California, Berkeley
Vice-President Emeritus, The Ohio State University
First Head, Energy and Environment Division, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory
Fellow APS, AAAS

David B. Holtkamp
Scientific Staff Member, Physics Division
Los Alamos National Laboratory

John C. Ingraham
Scientific Staff Member
Los Alamos National Laboratory (retired)
Member American Geophysical Union

Helen Jackson
Research Physicist, Air Force Research Laboratory
Wright Laboratory
Member Materials Research Society, IEEE

H. Richard Johnson
Co-Founder and Former CEO
Watkins-Johnson Company (retired)
Life Fellow IEEE, Member National Academy of Engineering

James R. Johnson
3M Company (retired)
Member Carlton Society (3M Hall of Fame)
Member National Academy of Engineering

O’Dean Judd
LANL Fellow
Los Alamos National Laboratory (retired)
Technical Advisor and Consultant
Fellow APS, IEEE, AAAS

Andrew Kaldor
Distinguished Scientific Advisor
Manager of Breakthrough Research
ExxonMobil Corporation (retired)
Fellow AAAS, Member ACS

Alexander E. Kaplan
Professor, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering
The Johns Hopkins University
Max Born Award (Optical Society of America) 2005
Alexander von Humboldt Award (von Humboldt Foundation) 1996
Fellow OSA

Thomas J. Karr
Director in the Advanced Concepts & Technology Division
Northrop Grumman Electronic Systems
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (1984-1996)
Editor, Applied Optics (1991-1994)
Member OSA, AAAS; Senior Member IEEE

Jonathan Katz
Professor of Physics
Washington University

William E. Keller
Leader, Low Temperature Physics Group 1971-1985
Los Alamos National Laboratory (retired)
Fellow APS

John M. Kennel
Autonetics Division,
Boeing North American (retired)
Formerly Electronics Division,
Northrop Grumman Corporation
Member AAAS, AIAA

Paul I. Kingsbury
Manager, Physical Properties Research Department
Corning Inc.(retired)

Robert S. Knox
Professor of Physics Emeritus
University of Rochester
Member APS Council 1985-1988
Fellow APS

M. Kristiansen
C.B.Thornton/P.W.Horn Professor
Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering
Texas Tech University
Fellow APS, IEEE

Moyses Kuchnir
Applied Scientist
Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (retired)
Life Member APS, Member IEEE, AAAS

Joseph A. Kunc
Professor, Physics and Astronomy
University of Southern California
Fellow APS

Paul L. La Celle
Professor, Department of Biomedical Engineering
Former Chair, Department of Biophysics
University of Rochester
Alexander von Humboldt Senior Fellow,
Max Planck Institute for Biophysics, Frankfort

Robert E. LeLevier
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (1951-1957)
Physics Department, RAND Corp (1957-1971)
R&D Associates (1971-1983)
Eos Technologies, Inc. (1983-1993)

Robert E. Levine
Industrial and Defense Physics and Engineering (retired)
Member ACM, IEEE

Harold W. Lewis
Professor of Physics Emeritus
University of California at Santa Barbara
Chairman, Defense Science Board Panel on Nuclear Winter
Fellow APS, AAAS; Chairman, APS Reactor Safety Study

John D. Lindl
James Clerk Maxwell Prize for Plasma Physics (APS) 2007
Fellow APS, AAAS

Gabriel G. Lombardi
Senior Scientist, Phase Coherence, Inc.
National Research Council Associate (NIST, 1980-82)
Life Member APS, Member OSA

Michael D. Lubin
Colonel,
United States Air Force (retired)

Alfred U. MacRae
President, MacRae Technologies
Member National Academy of Engineering; Fellow APS, IEEE,

Phillip W. Mange
Associate Superintendent, Space Science Division
Scientific Consultant to the Director of Research,
Naval Research Laboratory (retired)

John E. Mansfield
Vice Chairman
Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board

Joseph Maserjian
Senior Research Scientist,
California Institute of Technology --
Jet Propulsion Laboratory (retired)

John H. McAdoo
Aerospace Physicist
Member IEEE, AAAS

Thomas A. McClelland
Vice President, Commercial Products
Frequency Electronics, Inc.

Harold Mirels
Principal Scientist,
The Aerospace Corporation (retired)
Fellow APS, AIAA
Member National Academy of Engineering

Jim Mitroy
Lecturer in Physics, School of Engineering and Information Technology
Charles Darwin University, Australia

Michael Monce
Professor of Physics, Astronomy, and Geophysics
Connecticut College
Member AAPT, American Geophysical Union

Nasif Nahle
Scientific Research Director
Biology Cabinet, Mexico
Member AAAS, NYAS

Rodney W. Nichols
President and CEO, New York Academy of Sciences (1992-2001)
Vice President and Executive Vice President, The Rockefeller University (1970-1990)
Secretary of Defense Medal for Distinguished Meritorious Civilian Service (1970)
Fellow AAAS, NYAS

Gordon C. Oehler
Senior Fellow, Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
Working Group Chairman, Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States.
Corporate Vice President for Corporate Development, SAIC (1998-2004)
National Intelligence Officer for Science, Technology and Proliferation (1989-1992)

William P. Oliver
Professor of Physics
Tufts University
Life Member APS

Frank R. Paolini
Adjunct Professor of Physics, University of Connecticut at Stamford (retired)
Senior Member APS, Member IEEE

Daniel N. Payton III
Senior Scientist, SAIC (1992-present)
Eos Technologies (1984-1992)
Technical Director of Nuclear Technology
Air Force Weapons Laboratory (1976-1984)

Erik M. Pell
Xerox Corporation (retired)
Author: From Dreams to Riches – The Story of Xerography (Carlson)
Edward Goodrich Acheson Medal (Electrochemical Society) 1986
President, Electrochemical Society (1980-1981)
Fellow APS, Honorary Member ECS, Senior Member IEEE

Thomas E. Phipps, Jr.
Physicist (retired)
Operations Evaluation Group, MIT
US Naval Ordnance Laboratory
Senior Member APS

John X. Przybysz

Donald Rapp
Chief Technologist, Mechanical and Chemical Systems,
Jet Propulsion Laboratory (retired)
Professor of Physics and Environmental Engineering, University of Texas (1973-1979)
Author, Assessing Climate Change and Ice Ages and Interglacials (Springer-Verlag)
Fellow APS

Ned S. Rasor
Consulting Physicist
Formerly President and CEO, Rasor Associates, Inc.
Member IEEE, AIAA

Richard T. Rauch
NASA Stennis Space Center
Life Member APS, Associate Fellow AIAA

John E. Rhoads
Professor of Physics
Midwestern State University (retired)
Member SPE

Harry I. Ringermacher
Sr. Research Physicist
General Electric Global Research Center
AIP "History of Physics in Industry" Participant at GE
Sir William Herschel Medal (American Academy of Thermology)
Copper Black Award (American Mensa) 2003 and 2007

Stanley Robertson
Emeritus Professor of Physics
Southwestern Oklahoma State University

Robert C. Rohr
Reactor Physicist
Knolls Atomic Power Laboratory (retired)
Former Adjunct Professor of Nuclear Engineering,
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute

Berol Robinson
Principal Scientific Officer
UNESCO (retired)
Member AAPT, AAAS, Association des Écologistes Pour le Nucléaire

Daniel J. Rogers
Staff Scientist
Applied Information Sciences Department
Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory
Member OSA

Kelly R. Roos
Professor of Physics
Bradley University

Isaac C. Sanchez
William J. Murray, Jr. Chair in Engineering and Associate Chair
Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Texas at Austin
U.S. Department of Commerce Medals 1980, 1983
Edward U. Condon Award (NIST) 1983; SPE International Research Award 1996
Member National Academy of Engineering, Fellow APS

Raymond E. Sarwinski
President, Cryogenic Designs, Inc.
Life Member APS

Nicola Scafetta
Research Scientist, Physics Department, Duke University
Member American Geophysical Union

Mark D. Semon
Professor, Department of Physics and Astronomy
Bates College
Member American Academy of Forensic Scientists, American College of Forensic Examiners

Thomas P. Sheahen
President/ CEO, Western Technology, Inc. (energy sciences consulting)
Member AAAS; APS Congressional Science Fellowship (1977-78)
Author, Introduction to High Temperature Superconductivity (Springer)

Arnold J. Sierk
Technical Staff Member
Theoretical Division
Los Alamos National Laboratory
Fellow APS

Joseph Silverman
Professor Emeritus of Nuclear Engineering,
Department of Materials Science and Engineering
University of Maryland
Fellow APS, ANS

S. Fred Singer
Professor of Environmental Sciences Emeritus
University of Virginia
First Director of the National Weather Satellite Service
Fellow APS, AAAS, American Geophysical Union

Frans W. Sluijter
Professor, Department of Applied Physics
Eindhoven University of Technology
Former Chair, Plasma Physics Division, European Physics Society
Former Vice President, International Union of Pure and Applied Physics
Member Dutch Physical Society, Institute of Physics UK

John R. Smith
Project Physicist, Experimental High Energy Physics
Department of Physics
University of California, Davis
Life Member APS

Hermann Statz
Raytheon Corporation (retired)
Microwave Pioneer Award (IEEE) 2004
Fellow APS

Nick Steph
Chair, Department of Physics
Franklin College
Member AAPT, ACS

Peter Stilbs
Professor of Physical Chemistry
Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Stockholm, Sweden
Life Member APS

Norman D. Stockwell
Senior Project Engineer, TRW (retired)
Former Member of the Technical Staff, The Aerospace Corporation
Life Member APS, Member AAAS

Thomas F. Stratton
Fellow, Los Alamos National Laboratory (retired)
Fellow APS

William R. Stratton
Scientific Staff Member
Los Alamos National Laboratory (retired)
Member AEC Advisory Committee on Reactor Safety
Chair ANS Nuclear Reactor Accident Study
Fellow ANS

Szymon Suckewer
Professor of School of Engineering & Applied Sciences
Director of Plasma Science & Technology Program
Princeton University
Fellow APS, OSA

Ronald M. Sundelin
Associate Director, DOE Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (retired)
Commonwealth Professor Emeritus of Physics, Virginia Tech
Fellow APS

Willard L. Talbert
Scientific Consultant (1993-present)
Scientific Staff Member, Los Alamos National Laboratory, 1976-1993 (retired)
Professor of Physics, Iowa State University (1961-1976)
Fellow APS

Lu Ting
Professor Emeritus of Mathematics
Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University
Lead Author, Vortex Dominated Flows (Applied Mathematical Sciences, Springer)
Member SIAM, AIAA, AAM

Frank J. Tipler
Professor of Mathematical Physics
Tulane University
Coauthor, The Anthropic Cosmological Principle (Oxford University Press)

Salvatore Torquato
Professor of Chemistry and the Princeton Center for Theoretical Science,
Materials Institute and Applied & Computational Mathematics
Princeton University
2009 APS David Alder Lectureship Award in the Field of Material Physics
Fellow APS

Rusty S. Towell
Professor of Physics
Abilene Christian University
Member IEEE

Edward S. Troy
Principal Engineer
Aerospace Consulting
Wireless, RF, microwave, analog/DSP, and GPS circuits and systems
Member IEEE, AAAS

William B. Walters
Professor of Chemistry and Biochemistry, University of Maryland
John Simon Guggenheim Fellow (1986)
ACS Award in Nuclear Chemistry (2001)
Alexander von Humboldt Senior Fellow, University of Mainz (2002)
Life Member APS, Member ACS

Samuel A. Werner
Curators’ Professor Emeritus
The University of Missouri
Guest Researcher, NIST
Fellow APS, AAAS

Bruce J. West
Adjunct Professor of Physics
Duke University
Fellow APS

Peter J. Wojtowicz
Group Head, Senior Member Technical Staff (retired)
RCA Labs, GE, Sarnoff Corporation
Fellow APS

Ya-Hong Xie
Professor of Materials Science and Engineering
University of California at Los Angeles
Senior Member IEEE, Member Materials Research Society

M. John Yoder
Principal Physicist
The MITRE Corporation
Life Member APS

Claude Zeller
Principal Fellow
Pitney Bowles Inc.
Member IEEE

Martin V. Zombeck
Physicist, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics (retired)
Author, Handbook of Space Astronomy and Astrophysics (Cambridge University Press)
Coauthor, High Resolution X-Ray Spectroscopy of Cosmic Plasmas (Cambridge University Press)

http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-ts.pdf

Refutes everything you've ever posted on climate science.

Here's the HTML: http://74.125.93.132/search?q=cache...cc+technical+summary&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us

Contribution of Working Group III to the
Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Technical Summary
Authors:
Terry Barker (UK), Igor Bashmakov (Russia), Lenny Bernstein (USA), Jean E. Bogner (USA), Peter Bosch (The Netherlands),
Rutu Dave (The Netherlands), Ogunlade Davidson (Sierra Leone), Brian S. Fisher (Australia), Sujata Gupta (India),
Kirsten Halsnæs (Denmark), BertJan Heij (The Netherlands), Suzana Kahn Ribeiro (Brazil), Shigeki Kobayashi (Japan),
Mark D. Levine (USA), Daniel L. Martino (Uruguay), Omar Masera (Mexico), Bert Metz (The Netherlands), Leo Meyer (The Netherlands),
Gert-Jan Nabuurs (The Netherlands), Adil Najam (Pakistan), Nebojsa Nakicenovic (Austria/Montenegro), Hans-Holger Rogner (Germany),
Joyashree Roy (India), Jayant Sathaye (USA), Robert Schock (USA), Priayadarshi Shukla (India), Ralph E. H. Sims (New Zealand),
Pete Smith (UK), Dennis A. Tirpak (USA), Diana Urge-Vorsatz (Hungary), Dadi Zhou (PR China)

 

[trysail]

Garbage in, garbage out: this is truth of science--it is only as good as the data. Data is apolitical. Eloquent. So how do we measure temperature data? More recently--satellites and radiosonde measurements. But up to the end of the new millenium, and still today but not as widely--Stevenson screens. These screens are insulated measuring apparatuses (apparati???) First; there are no standardize thermometers--thus a thermometer reading 30 degrees in Miami and one reading 30 degrees in Perth might actually be different absolute temperatures. We learn in high school that you perform an experiment with the same apparatus, or a standardized apparatus, for reliable relative or actual data respectively.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stevenson_screen

Siting for Stevenson screens is specific: a specific height over mowed lawn. However, urban island heat effect is not taken into account. A screen in a farmers field will read different measurements than one in New York City despite a similar overall regional temperature.

It gets worse: many Stevenson screens are improperly sited (Pielke et al. 2007, Documentation of uncertainties and biases associated with surface temperature measurment sites for climate change assessment. Bulletin of the American Meterological Society, 88: 913-928). Up to half are improperly sited.

Now consider that no such screens are on the oceans which covers 71% of the planet's surface, 3% by ice. IN total 1.4% of the earths surface is sitable when you exclude deserts, mountains, swamps and lakes. Obviously a good part of that 1.4% has no screens.

The point is--this 1.4% accounts for measurements of the global surface temperature. It is extrapolated worldwide, including over oceans, which is a huge climate driver. This extrapolation is a scientific leap of faith. Science doesn't believe in leaps of faith...except maybe at the quantum level.

An Open Letter to the Community from Chris Landsea
(Resignation Letter of Chris Landsea from IPCC)


Dear colleagues,

After some prolonged deliberation, I have decided to withdraw from
participating in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC). I am withdrawing because I have come to view
the part of the IPCC to which my expertise is relevant as having become
politicized. In addition, when I have raised my concerns to the IPCC
leadership, their response was simply to dismiss my concerns.

With this open letter to the community, I wish to explain the basis for my
decision and bring awareness to what I view as a problem in the IPCC
process. The IPCC is a group of climate researchers from around the world
that every few years summarize how climate is changing and how it may be
altered in the future due to manmade global warming. I had served both as an
author for the Observations chapter and a Reviewer for the 2nd Assessment
Report in 1995 and the 3rd Assessment Report in 2001, primarily on the topic
of tropical cyclones (hurricanes and typhoons). My work on hurricanes, and
tropical cyclones more generally, has been widely cited by the IPCC. For the
upcoming AR4, I was asked several weeks ago by the Observations chapter Lead
Author---Dr. Kevin Trenberth---to provide the writeup for Atlantic
hurricanes. As I had in the past, I agreed to assist the IPCC in what I
thought was to be an important, and politically-neutral determination of
what is happening with our climate.

Shortly after Dr. Trenberth requested that I draft the Atlantic hurricane
section for the AR4's Observations chapter, Dr. Trenberth participated in a
press conference organized by scientists at Harvard on the topic "Experts to
warn global warming likely to continue spurring more outbreaks of intense
hurricane activity" along with other media interviews on the topic. The
result of this media interaction was widespread coverage that directly
connected the very busy 2004 Atlantic hurricane season as being caused by
anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming occurring today. Listening to and
reading transcripts of this press conference and media interviews, it is
apparent that Dr. Trenberth was being accurately quoted and summarized in
such statements and was not being misrepresented in the media. These media
sessions have potential to result in a widespread perception that global
warming has made recent hurricane activity much more severe.

I found it a bit perplexing that the participants in the Harvard press
conference had come to the conclusion that global warming was impacting
hurricane activity today. To my knowledge, none of the participants in that
press conference had performed any research on hurricane variability, nor
were they reporting on any new work in the field. All previous and current
research in the area of hurricane variability has shown no reliable,
long-term trend up in the frequency or intensity of tropical cyclones,
either in the Atlantic or any other basin. The IPCC assessments in 1995 and
2001 also concluded that there was no global warming signal found in the
hurricane record.

Moreover, the evidence is quite strong and supported by the most recent
credible studies that any impact in the future from global warming upon
hurricane will likely be quite small. The latest results from the
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (Knutson and Tuleya, Journal of
Climate, 2004) suggest that by around 2080, hurricanes may have winds and
rainfall about 5% more intense than today. It has been proposed that even
this tiny change may be an exaggeration as to what may happen by the end of
the 21st Century (Michaels, Knappenberger, and Landsea, Journal of Climate,
2005, submitted).

It is beyond me why my colleagues would utilize the media to push an
unsupported agenda that recent hurricane activity has been due to global
warming. Given Dr. Trenberth's role as the IPCC's Lead Author responsible
for preparing the text on hurricanes, his public statements so far outside
of current scientific understanding led me to concern that it would be very
difficult for the IPCC process to proceed objectively with regards to the
assessment on hurricane activity. My view is that when people identify
themselves as being associated with the IPCC and then make pronouncements
far outside current scientific understandings that this will harm the
credibility of climate change science and will in the longer term diminish
our role in public policy.

My concerns go beyond the actions of Dr. Trenberth and his colleagues to how
he and other IPCC officials responded to my concerns. I did caution Dr.
Trenberth before the media event and provided him a summary of the current
understanding within the hurricane research community. I was disappointed
when the IPCC leadership dismissed my concerns when I brought up the
misrepresentation of climate science while invoking the authority of the
IPCC. Specifically, the IPCC leadership said that Dr. Trenberth was speaking
as an individual even though he was introduced in the press conference as an
IPCC lead author; I was told that that the media was exaggerating or
misrepresenting his words, even though the audio from the press conference
and interview tells a different story (available on the web directly); and
that Dr. Trenberth was accurately reflecting conclusions from the TAR, even
though it is quite clear that the TAR stated that there was no connection
between global warming and hurricane activity. The IPCC leadership saw
nothing to be concerned with in Dr. Trenberth's unfounded pronouncements to
the media, despite his supposedly impartial important role that he must
undertake as a Lead Author on the upcoming AR4.

It is certainly true that "individual scientists can do what they wish in
their own rights", as one of the folks in the IPCC leadership suggested.
Differing conclusions and robust debates are certainly crucial to progress
in climate science. However, this case is not an honest scientific
discussion conducted at a meeting of climate researchers. Instead, a
scientist with an important role in the IPCC represented himself as a Lead
Author for the IPCC has used that position to promulgate to the media and
general public his own opinion that the busy 2004 hurricane season was
caused by global warming, which is in direct opposition to research written
in the field and is counter to conclusions in the TAR. This becomes
problematic when I am then asked to provide the draft about observed
hurricane activity variations for the AR4 with, ironically, Dr. Trenberth as
the Lead Author for this chapter. Because of Dr. Trenberth's pronouncements,
the IPCC process on our assessment of these crucial extreme events in our
climate system has been subverted and compromised, its neutrality lost.
While no one can "tell" scientists what to say or not say (nor am I
suggesting that), the IPCC did select Dr. Trenberth as a Lead Author and
entrusted to him to carry out this duty in a non-biased, neutral point of
view. When scientists hold press conferences and speak with the media, much
care is needed not to reflect poorly upon the IPCC. It is of more than
passing interest to note that Dr. Trenberth, while eager to share his views
on global warming and hurricanes with the media, declined to do so at the
Climate Variability and Change Conference in January where he made several
presentations. Perhaps he was concerned that such speculation---though
worthy in his mind of public pronouncements---would not stand up to the
scrutiny of fellow climate scientists.

I personally cannot in good faith continue to contribute to a process that I
view as both being motivated by pre-conceived agendas and being
scientifically unsound. As the IPCC leadership has seen no wrong in Dr.
Trenberth's actions and have retained him as a Lead Author for the AR4, I
have decided to no longer participate in the IPCC AR4.

Sincerely,

Chris Landsea

17 January 2005

http://www.climatechangefacts.info/ClimateChangeDocuments/LandseaResignationLetterFromIPCC.htm

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/ssn_predict_l.gif

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/images/deepsolarminimum/irradiance.jpg

A 55-year low in solar radio emissions:
After World War II, astronomers began keeping records of the sun's brightness at radio wavelengths. Records of 10.7 cm flux extend back all the way to the early 1950s. Radio telescopes are now recording the dimmest "radio sun" since 1955. Some researchers believe that the lessening of radio emissions is an indication of weakness in the sun's global magnetic field. No one is certain, however, because the source of these long-monitored radio emissions is not fully understood.

All these lows have sparked a debate about whether the ongoing minimum is "weird", "extreme" or just an overdue "market correction" following a string of unusually intense solar maxima.

"Since the Space Age began in the 1950s, solar activity has been generally high," notes Hathaway. "Five of the ten most intense solar cycles on record have occurred in the last 50 years. We're just not used to this kind of deep calm."

Deep calm was fairly common a hundred years ago. The solar minima of 1901 and 1913, for instance, were even longer than the one we're experiencing now. To match those minima in terms of depth and longevity, the current minimum will have to last at least another year.

In a way, the calm is exciting, says Pesnell. "For the first time in history, we're getting to see what a deep solar minimum is really like." A fleet of spacecraft including the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), the twin STEREO probes, the five THEMIS probes, Hinode, ACE, Wind, TRACE, AIM, TIMED, Geotail and others are studying the sun and its effects on Earth 24/7 using technology that didn't exist 100 years ago. Their measurements of solar wind, cosmic rays, irradiance and magnetic fields show that solar minimum is much more interesting and profound than anyone expected.

Modern technology cannot, however, predict what comes next. Competing models by dozens of top solar physicists disagree, sometimes sharply, on when this solar minimum will end and how big the next solar maximum will be. Pesnell has surveyed the scientific literature and prepared a "piano plot" showing the range of predictions. The great uncertainty stems from one simple fact: No one fully understands the underlying physics of the sunspot cycle.

Pesnell believes sunspot counts will pick up again soon, "possibly by the end of the year," to be followed by a solar maximum of below-average intensity in 2012 or 2013.

But like other forecasters, he knows he could be wrong.

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/01apr_deepsolarminimum.htm


Solar Wind Loses Power, Hits 50-year Low
Sept. 23, 2008: In a briefing today at NASA headquarters, solar physicists announced that the solar wind is losing power.

"The average pressure of the solar wind has dropped more than 20% since the mid-1990s," says Dave McComas of the Southwest Research Institute in San Antonio, Texas. "This is the weakest it's been since we began monitoring solar wind almost 50 years ago."

Curiously, the speed of the million mph solar wind hasn't decreased much—only 3%. The change in pressure comes mainly from reductions in temperature and density. The solar wind is 13% cooler and 20% less dense.

"What we're seeing is a long term trend, a steady decrease in pressure that began sometime in the mid-1990s," explains Arik Posner, NASA's Ulysses Program Scientist in Washington DC.

How unusual is this event?

"It's hard to say. We've only been monitoring solar wind since the early years of the Space Age—from the early 60s to the present," says Posner. "Over that period of time, it's unique. How the event stands out over centuries or millennia, however, is anybody's guess. We don't have data going back that far."

Flagging solar wind has repercussions across the entire solar system—beginning with the heliosphere.

The heliosphere is a bubble of magnetism springing from the sun and inflated to colossal proportions by the solar wind. Every planet from Mercury to Pluto and beyond is inside it. The heliosphere is our solar system's first line of defense against galactic cosmic rays. High-energy particles from black holes and supernovas try to enter the solar system, but most are deflected by the heliosphere's magnetic fields.

"The solar wind isn't inflating the heliosphere as much as it used to," says McComas. "That means less shielding against cosmic rays."

In addition to weakened solar wind, "Ulysses also finds that the sun's underlying magnetic field has weakened by more than 30% since the mid-1990s," says Posner. "This reduces natural shielding even more."

Unpublished Ulysses cosmic ray data show that, indeed, high energy (GeV) electrons, a minor but telltale component of cosmic rays around Earth, have jumped in number by about 20%.

These extra particles pose no threat to people on Earth's surface. Our thick atmosphere and planetary magnetic field provide additional layers of protection that keep us safe.

But any extra cosmic rays can have consequences. If the trend continues, astronauts on the Moon or en route to Mars would get a higher dose of space radiation. Robotic space probes and satellites in high Earth orbit face an increased risk of instrument malfunctions and reboots due to cosmic ray strikes. Also, there are controversial studies linking cosmic ray fluxes to cloudiness and climate change on Earth.

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/23sep_solarwind.htm

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Tropics_Christy.jpg

 

[dr_mabeuse]

Isn't that the same petition from the American Physical Society that you published before? Those names look familiar.

No, I don't understand all the physics of global warming, which is why I defer to the specialists and professionals in the field. I have a great respect for my own ignorance and am very cautious of it, a concern the layman opponents of AGW apparently don't share.

However, I can say that your article on the “real greenhouse effect” is just dead wrong, and I'm shocked that anyone who's had a basic course in physics would attempt to foist off such nonsense.

An actual greenhouse works as a physical barrier to convection (the transfer of heat by currents in a fluid) while the atmosphere really facilitates convection so the impression of actual greenhouse-like activity in the Earth's atmosphere is incorrect.

Yes, that's true. But this isn't what makes a greenhouse warm, which is the salient part of the analogy. If the greenhouse effect is only caused by stopping convectional transfer of heat as he claims, then why do greenhouses have to be made of glass or other transparent material? A wooden or concrete greenhouse would work just as well to stop convectional mixing.

No, a greenhouse works by admitting radiant solar energy which serves to warm up its contents. The contents then re-radiate the heat as longer wavelength infrared radiation, which can't pass back out through the glass (glass is not transparent to IR) and becomes trapped inside. In such a way is a greenhouse able to maintain a warmer atmosphere on cooler days.

In the same way, the sun's radiant energy enters the earth's atmosphere and heats the surface, which then re-radiates the energy back into space in the form on infrared radiation. Greenhouse gases are not transparent to IR, however, and so they absorb the radiation, which heats them up, raising the temperature of the atmosphere.

Organic molecules (molecules containing carbon) absorb strongly in the infrared. This is an area in which I have considerable experience and so can address with some authority. Each different chemical group absorbs IR at a slightly different frequency, and so chemists use the Infra red absorbance spectrum of a compound to identify the groups present.

When a molecule absorbs IR radiation, it sets the molecule to vibrating, and some of the energy is converted into translational movement. i.e., it makes the molecule move faster. Molecular motion is heat, one and the same. Greenhouse gases turn the IR which would be radiated into space into atmospheric heat.

The rest of the article is disingenuous to the point of being deliberately misleading.

After calculating what the earth's temperature should be based on total solar radiation intercepted, he finds that the measured temperature is actually 55 degrees warmer. This is largely due to the greenhouse effect, he says. Okay. Agreed. There might be other factors too, but clearly, something's going on.

And then his conclusion for that section says:

So, despite there being far more greenhouse gas in the atmosphere than required to achieve the current greenhouse effect[BTW, how does he know this? No where does he do a calculation of provide a reference], something which has been true since before humans discovered fire, evapo-transpiration and thermals transport heat higher in the atmosphere where radiation to space is increased. This is why Earth remains about 15 °C (288 K) rather than about 77 °C (350 K).[Where is he getting these numbers from?]

Okay, fine. Let's give him the benefit of the doubt. So there are other cooling mechanisms in place. No one's disputing that. But no one knows whether these are sufficient to radiate away the excess heat caused by the greenhouse effect. It appears that they're not.


Then he really gets dirty.

Do greenhouse gases trap the sun's radiation/'heat'?
Not to any great extent.

No. No one's saying they do. The greenhouse gases trap heat being radiated back into space from the earth.

This is sophistry of the worst sort.

His conclusion?

Greenhouse gases do not really "trap Earth's heat" but could be fairly described as delaying the energy transfer from Earth to space. ("Trapping heat" implies that the energy is stuck in the system forever, which is a false notion.) Greenhouse gases do not emit energy in the same bandwidth in which they absorb energy and thus emissions from carbon dioxide are not absorbed by carbon dioxide.

Of course they don't trap the heat “forever”. Again, no one's making such a preposterous assertion. What they do is trap heat in the atmosphere long enough to raise atmospheric temperature. They upset the rate of re-radiation. Same heat input, reduced heat output, and what happens to the system? Surprise, surprise, it gets hotter.

I don't know where this information is from, but it's either astonishingly ignorant, or just deliberately misleading. A finer example of junk science would be difficult to find.

It doesn't reflect well on your sources of information.

===========================
Carbon Isotope Ratios in Atmospheric CO2


Incidentally, came across a little study about the isotopic composition of atmospheric CO2. Carbon exists as either C12, which is stable, or C14, which is radioactive and decays over time (that's how they do radiocarbon dating). “Normal” biogenic CO2 is a mixture of these two isotopes in a fixed ratio that's been constant over time and can be measured and demonstrated.

The C14 in fossil fuels has all decayed away though, and so the CO2 produced by burning coal and oil is almost all C12.

The proportional amount of C12 in the atmosphere has been found to be rising rather rapidly over the last 200 years or so, which strongly suggests it's being put there by the burning of fossil fuels.

It's like finding man's fingerprint on the increasing amounts of CO2 in the atmosphere.

If you'd like, I can probably hunt down the reference.

 

[dr_mabeuse]

Okay. It's obvious, Trysail, that you can't refute any of the established facts I produced that lead to my stance on global warming, and so you're reduced to using an informational blunderbus to try and shoot some kind of hole--any kind of hole--in the theory. The science behind the greenhouse effect is wrong; there's no way to measure the earth's temperature; models are wrong; methodology is wrong; this study made errors; that study made errors. Heating is due to solar cycles; people are lying about the effect of GW on hurricanes; it's actually getting cooler (that graph was dealt with in the statistical study I posted a link to last week that found an overall rise in global temperatures despite the presence of local noise); etc. etc. etc. etc.

And finally, your ultimate argument: If it should be true, who's to say it won't be good for us?

What kind of intellectual effort is this? What would motivate you to take such an approach? There's no integrity to such an argument. You just throw up every conflicting or ambiguous study you can find and hope something will stick. Those are anecdotes, not proof.

I've spent far too much time on this as is. I'm never going to convince you, because you're simply unconvinceable. Your mind is made up.

I, on the other hand, am the very apotheosis of rationality. Simple provide me with the name of one major Scientific organization that opposes the generally accepted theory of AGW, and I'll listen. I want the doubts vetted through a legitimate organization though, and I don't want anecdote. I want facts.

Until then, I'm bowing out of this debate while it's still civil.

 

[trysail]

Thought experiments are not proofs of hypotheses and should not be confused as such.

Teleological argument is not proof of principle.

There are ( obviously ) several potentially fatal problems with the AGW hypothesis, not least of which is the fairly well-documented lack of integrity of the data and the indeterminate climate sensitivity of CO2 resulting in models with no demonstrable predictive power.

What is the explanation for previous eras where CO2 levels were far higher than current levels? Why didn't earth's climate demonstrate the hypothesized "exponential" positive feedback loop then? That's an empirical demonstration if ever there were one ( if not flat-out proof ) of CO2's failure as a sole causative variable of warming.

The main problem is that proponents of the AGW hypothesis have nailed their colors to the mast of a ship that is shipping water in a sea of contradictions, inconsistencies and lack of evidence.



Imagine not being able to distinguish the real cause from that without which the cause would not be able to act as a cause. It is what the majority appear to do, like people groping in the dark; they call it a cause, thus giving it a name that does not belong to it. That is why one man surrounds the earth with a vortex to make the heavens keep it in place, another makes the air support it like a wide lid. As for their capacity of being in the best place they could possibly be put, this they do not look for, nor do they believe it to have any divine force, but they believe that they will some time discover a stronger and more immortal Atlas to hold everything together more, and they do not believe that the truly good and 'binding' binds and holds them together.

—Plato

 

[DeeZire]

Originally Posted by amicus
DeeZire

Your words imply that your life choices are based on the collective will, for the good of the whole, to be sacrificed as needed.

I know, for certain, that you are lying through your teeth. You exist and function as a self interested individual, just like everyone else, except you are ashamed of it.

Amicus

We all deal with self interest. For you to assume everyone deals with it the way you do is the height of arrogance, but that's no surprise.

 

[Dragonlipz]

Thought experiments are not proofs of hypotheses and should not be confused as such.

Teleological argument is not proof of principle.

There are ( obviously ) several potentially fatal problems with the AGW hypothesis, not least of which is the fairly well-documented lack of integrity of the data and the indeterminate climate sensitivity of CO2 resulting in models with no demonstrable predictive power.

What is the explanation for previous eras where CO2 levels were far higher than current levels? Why didn't earth's climate demonstrate the hypothesized "exponential" positive feedback loop then? That's an empirical demonstration if ever there were one ( if not flat-out proof ) of CO2's failure as a sole causative variable of warming.

The main problem is that proponents of the AGW hypothesis have nailed their colors to the mast of a ship that is shipping water in a sea of contradictions, inconsistencies and lack of evidence.



Imagine not being able to distinguish the real cause from that without which the cause would not be able to act as a cause. It is what the majority appear to do, like people groping in the dark; they call it a cause, thus giving it a name that does not belong to it. That is why one man surrounds the earth with a vortex to make the heavens keep it in place, another makes the air support it like a wide lid. As for their capacity of being in the best place they could possibly be put, this they do not look for, nor do they believe it to have any divine force, but they believe that they will some time discover a stronger and more immortal Atlas to hold everything together more, and they do not believe that the truly good and 'binding' binds and holds them together.

—Plato

Smoke em if ya got em.......