So what's the best the democrats can hope for in November?

[WriterDom]

It's only 190 days away. If Jupiter aligns with Mars and Joe and Barry start shitting golden cufflinks, I see the very best they can do is lose 30 seats in the House. Only losing 30 seats would be a huge victory.

In the Senate I hope Reid is knocked off. We have to remove democrat senate majority leaders the old fashioned way. Fire their asses.

 

[Netzach]

I think the best the Dems can hope for are more repeats of the district in NY that went all purity test, and more Ted Deutch kinda scenarios.

I think you're actually going to be kind of surprised WD. 24 percent of pissed off people upset elections but don't sweep them.

 

[WriterDom]

I think the best the Dems can hope for are more repeats of the district in NY that went all purity test, and more Ted Deutch kinda scenarios.

I think you're actually going to be kind of surprised WD. 24 percent of pissed off people upset elections but don't sweep them.

That's a blue district that went 65% for Obama. Like it or not it's still a middle right country. The dems didn't win a majority with progressive candidates. They won with Jesus and Gun conservative democrats. Obama has pretty much left these guys to wither and die on the vine. That's the 30 seats that are Poof, gone forever. It remains to be seen how many replays of the Kennedy seat, New Jersey, and Virginia governor turnarounds we see.

A net loss of only 30 I'd find pretty shocking.

 

[midwestyankee]

The best they can hope for is to win every election.

Next question.

 

[Betticus]

Ron Paul!!!!!

At this point I think that the third coming of the antichrist should happen and we should elect the villainous offspring of satan to the office of president. He couldn't be a bigger fuck up than the Obamanator.

 

[JMohegan]

It's only 190 days away. If Jupiter aligns with Mars and Joe and Barry start shitting golden cufflinks, I see the very best they can do is lose 30 seats in the House. Only losing 30 seats would be a huge victory.

In the Senate I hope Reid is knocked off. We have to remove democrat senate majority leaders the old fashioned way. Fire their asses.

If I were a betting man, I'd make good use of Silver's blog.

Latest for the House:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/house

And the Senate:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/04/senate-forecast-update-little-chance-of.html

 

[JMohegan]

That's a blue district that went 65% for Obama.

No, she's referring to NY's 23rd. Upstate, Jesus country, red.

Last time a non-Republican won there was 1852.

 

[00Syd]

Yawn.

 

[DeepGreenEyes]

A lot depends on the economy. If things accelerate, it will blunt some of the GOP enthusiasm gap.

It will be bad for the Dems, though, as it invariably is for the party of the sitting president. From Wikipedia:
"...over the past 17 midterm elections, the president's party has lost an average 28 seats in the House, and an average 4 seats in the Senate."

I say, put the pedal down, Obama. Nominate a true liberal to SCOTUS (you may not get another chance). After this Wall Street package passes, get out in campaign mode, hard, like you did in the crucial days of the health care vote. You need to grab control of the debate.

Regardless of what happens in November, Dems should take solace in this Frum column:
"So what? Legislative majorities come and go. This healthcare bill is forever. A win in November is very poor compensation for this debacle now."



They at least got some of what Truman, Nixon and Clinton couldn't get done.

 

[JMohegan]

A lot depends on the economy. If things accelerate, it will blunt some of the GOP enthusiasm gap.

It will be bad for the Dems, though, as it invariably is for the party of the sitting president. From Wikipedia:
"...over the past 17 midterm elections, the president's party has lost an average 28 seats in the House, and an average 4 seats in the Senate."

I say, put the pedal down, Obama. Nominate a true liberal to SCOTUS (you may not get another chance). After this Wall Street package passes, get out in campaign mode, hard, like you did in the crucial days of the health care vote. You need to grab control of the debate.

Regardless of what happens in November, Dems should take solace in this Frum column:
"So what? Legislative majorities come and go. This healthcare bill is forever. A win in November is very poor compensation for this debacle now."



They at least got some of what Truman, Nixon and Clinton couldn't get done.

Yet another classic from Frum. "We followed the most radical voices in the party and the movement, and they led us to abject and irreversible defeat."

On a related note, word from a friend of mine, on the ground in Arizona, is that the D's are registering previously apathetic voters at a furious pace this spring. He also reported a moderate Republican peer's lament: "We're letting the fringe dictate policy here. In the process, we're violating basic standards of human decency and committing long-term demographic suicide as well."

 

[rosco rathbone]

A lot depends on the economy. If things accelerate, it will blunt some of the GOP enthusiasm gap.

It will be bad for the Dems, though, as it invariably is for the party of the sitting president. From Wikipedia:
"...over the past 17 midterm elections, the president's party has lost an average 28 seats in the House, and an average 4 seats in the Senate."

I say, put the pedal down, Obama. Nominate a true liberal to SCOTUS (you may not get another chance). After this Wall Street package passes, get out in campaign mode, hard, like you did in the crucial days of the health care vote. You need to grab control of the debate.

Regardless of what happens in November, Dems should take solace in this Frum column:
"So what? Legislative majorities come and go. This healthcare bill is forever. A win in November is very poor compensation for this debacle now."



They at least got some of what Truman, Nixon and Clinton couldn't get done.

It actually seems as if the Dems have taken something of a "fuck it" attitude now, instead of playing it so safe. Which is good. Who wants to live forever, legislatively speaking?

 

[DeepGreenEyes]

Yet another classic from Frum. On a related note, word from a friend of mine, on the ground in Arizona, is that the D's are registering previously apathetic voters at a furious pace this spring.

Okay. That makes me guardedly optimistic. I wonder, though, if that's in reaction to the new immigration law there and the teabaggers grabbing the state agenda. I wonder what other states are showing.

He also reported a moderate Republican peer's lament: "We're letting the fringe dictate policy here. In the process, we're violating basic standards of human decency and committing long-term demographic suicide as well."

Man, that's true. Unless there's a sudden explosion in the birth rate of rural white evangelicals. Maybe that's why they continue to push for *wink, wink* abstinence-only education.

 

[rosco rathbone]

We got healthcare reform, and it's looking like we might actually get Wall Street reform too. The meme was against that only a month or two ago. If a political union of enraged baggers with confused and fed-up Reagan Democrat/independent/socially-conservative-and-economically-liberal/Scott Brown voters hands Congress to the GOP after accomplishing that, I'd say we've done pretty well.

If we actually get climate reform and immigration too, I'd say we'd done extremely well.

 

[WriterDom]

No, she's referring to NY's 23rd. Upstate, Jesus country, red.

Last time a non-Republican won there was 1852.

Not Ted Deutch.

Jesus, you know what a special case the 23rd was right? Putting your hopes on that scenario all over the country, Nancy? You aren't that dumb.

 

[JMohegan]

Not Ted Deutch.

Jesus, you know what a special case the 23rd was right? Putting your hopes on that scenario all over the country, Nancy? You aren't that dumb.

Awww, thanks for the vote of confidence, WD!

Come on, man. I wasn't looking for a fight; just illuminating the point of Netzach's comment on NY, which you originally either ignored or missed.

Okay. That makes me guardedly optimistic. I wonder, though, if that's in reaction to the new immigration law there and the teabaggers grabbing the state agenda. I wonder what other states are showing.



Man, that's true. Unless there's a sudden explosion in the birth rate of rural white evangelicals. Maybe that's why they continue to push for *wink, wink* abstinence-only education.

At the moment, as far as I can tell that's state-specific.

As for abstinence only - I lol'd.

We got healthcare reform, and it's looking like we might actually get Wall Street reform too. The meme was against that only a month or two ago. If a political union of enraged baggers with confused and fed-up Reagan Democrat/independent/socially-conservative-and-economically-liberal/Scott Brown voters hands Congress to the GOP after accomplishing that, I'd say we've done pretty well.

If we actually get climate reform and immigration too, I'd say we'd done extremely well.

Don't forget the stimulus package, and two SCOTUS appointees. Do you have a specific preference for the 2nd of the latter?

 

[WriterDom]

Think I'll keep the Kennedy/Kennedy senate seat and the two blue state governorships and call it a win. Congressmen have to start running the day after they get sworn in, anyway. I can understand Nancy being thrilled but that's her job.

Yeah the stimulus/PORK. Thank God for that or unemployment would have gone over 8%. Obama didn't sign that a minute too late. Makes me thankful no one read it now.

 

[midwestyankee]

Think I'll keep the Kennedy/Kennedy senate seat and the two blue state governorships and call it a win. Congressmen have to start running the day after they get sworn in, anyway. I can understand Nancy being thrilled but that's her job.

Yeah the stimulus/PORK. Thank God for that or unemployment would have gone over 8%. Obama didn't sign that a minute too late. Makes me thankful no one read it now.

You know, WD, I have the sense that if Obama signed a bill into law that did just one thing: legislate that you get a daily blowjob from the gorgeous woman of your choice you'd still find reason to bitch about him.

Have you gone to the Faux News website to buy your supply of tea bags and misspelled signs yet?

 

[MisterSir]

My knowledge of American politics is spotty at best, but the sheer hamfistedness of WriterDom's attacks on Obama and the Democrats would make me support them if I had any interest in the subject.

 

[JMohegan]

Think I'll keep the Kennedy/Kennedy senate seat and the two blue state governorships and call it a win. Congressmen have to start running the day after they get sworn in, anyway. I can understand Nancy being thrilled but that's her job.

Yeah the stimulus/PORK. Thank God for that or unemployment would have gone over 8%. Obama didn't sign that a minute too late. Makes me thankful no one read it now.

Why so snarky?

Believe it or not, WD, some of us are genuinely pleased about this stuff. NOT because we're keeping score in a points-per-quarter or yards advanced before the next turnover, politics as sport, kind of way. But rather because we sincerely believe the changes move the country in a more positive direction.

The problem with judging Keynesian infusions is that it's impossible to know what would have transpired without them. Personally I would have preferred more spent on infrastructure, and a fuckload more spent on energy. But one can't have everything.

Funny how the rightwingers who bitch about the stimulus ignore that key $288 billion element....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Investmentbubble.jpg

 

[Netzach]

No, she's referring to NY's 23rd. Upstate, Jesus country, red.

Last time a non-Republican won there was 1852.

The reason is won is because the pubs are purging every moderate like they're Mao. So it's not like they're hanging onto the Gun and Weed Jesus optional middle.

 

[Netzach]

Why so snarky?

Believe it or not, WD, some of us are genuinely pleased about this stuff. NOT because we're keeping score in a points-per-quarter or yards advanced before the next turnover, politics as sport, kind of way. But rather because we sincerely believe the changes move the country in a more positive direction.

The problem with judging Keynesian infusions is that it's impossible to know what would have transpired without them. Personally I would have preferred more spent on infrastructure, and a fuckload more spent on energy. But one can't have everything.

Funny how the rightwingers who bitch about the stimulus ignore that key $288 billion element....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Investmentbubble.jpg

As strongly as I feel about healthcare, I think Obama squandered a political moment as badly as Bush squandered the good will of the world after 9/11. If I ran the zoo, I would have pushed everything, and I mean EVERYTHING aside until the employment situation could be addressed. Yes, with a massive WPA style acknowledgment that we're really hurting. Let the Republicans throw a hissy over that one right in the postelection glow - they'd look good.

That's how I personally would have played it.

I think that if the economy does NOT improve one single pussy hair or gets any worse we may have a one-term. I think that if it gets any better, people do vote with their wallet.

Besides, what, they're gonna FLOCK to the charisma of what, Tim Pawlenty?

 

[JMohegan]

The reason is won is because the pubs are purging every moderate like they're Mao. So it's not like they're hanging onto the Gun and Weed Jesus optional middle.

Right. This is the part WD's missing.

In contrast - Brown ran around MA calling himself an "Independent Republican" and deftly avoiding any appearance with prominent baggers, such as Palin. McDonnell won by ignoring the rabid right and focusing on jobs, jobs, jobs in Virginia. Both ran against politically incompetent, personally unappealing D's.

 

[Netzach]

Ron Paul!!!!!

At this point I think that the third coming of the antichrist should happen and we should elect the villainous offspring of satan to the office of president. He couldn't be a bigger fuck up than the Obamanator.

I like this simply because it brings home the truth that when the chips are in, the POTUS effects the quality of my day about as much as the weather in Tahiti.

 

[Netzach]

Right. This is the part WD's missing.

In contrast - Brown ran around MA calling himself an "Independent Republican" and deftly avoiding any appearance with prominent baggers, such as Palin. McDonnell won by ignoring the rabid right and focusing on jobs, jobs, jobs in Virginia. Both ran against politically incompetent, personally unappealing D's.

Details details.

Rgarding Deutch, well I was thinking with all the throw the bums out on their ass fervor you'd think that it would start happening.

 

[DeepGreenEyes]

When I think about all the teachers alone that would've been axed a year ago without the stimulus bills, I think it's been a good thing for communities.

I see it in my community every night as crews work on patching and replacing huge swaths of torn up highway. At a school near me, a high school auditorium was so decrepit it was becoming unsafe. They had a plan ready to go, but no money; stimulus money filled the gap, put people to work and gave the high school a safe auditorium to be proud of for another 40 years.

Nothing is perfect, but a lot of this was stuff that had to be done anyway, and people needed the jobs.