Put your money where your mouf is; predict

[Pure]

OK, it seems to come down to FL, PA, and OH.**

What are your predictions as to who will carry each?

It seems to me, very roughly, that whoever carries two of the three will win.

Can brother Jeb deliver FL, with the help of the SCt., like last time?

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Since you have one chance in eight of being right, I add two more states to confirm your powers of prophecy; who will carry:

New Hampshire and New Mexico.

And give your estimated totals of electoral votes.

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Political Seers Prize to be Awarded as soon as the Court Cases settle.

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There are some other interesting, evenly divided states, such as Iowa and Wisconsin, in case you care to comment.

 

[Lucifer_Carroll]

OK, it seems to come down to FL, PA, and OH.

What are your predictions as to who will carry each?

It seems to me, very roughly, that whoever carries two of the three will win.

Can brother Jeb deliver FL, with the help of the SCt., like last time?

====
Since you have one chance in eight of being right, I add two more states to confirm your powers of prophecy; who will carry:

New Hampshire and New Mexico.

====

Political Seers Prize to be Awarded as soon as the Court Cases settle.

Wasn't this based on a post I made earlier in the night?

Okay, my guesses:

PA goes to Kerry
OH barely ends up in Kerry's hands
FL goes to Bush, blacks complain about the fact that 1,000+ of their ballots were tossed into the Atlantic Ocean by Jeb Bush.
NH goes to Bush because NH Nader backers still don't get it.
NM goes to Kerry by the slimmest margin in a repeat of 2000.

 

[Liar]

I predict a perfect tie, down to the last vote, in a final deciding swing state.

I mean, hey...

#L

 

[oggbashan]

I predict that the lawyers win - piles of money and months of wrangling.

Og

 

[Edward Teach]

My prediction several months ago on another thread was:

Kerry 49%
Bush 48%
Nader 3%


As to your question, Pure:

Kerry wins PA, Oh & NH

Kerry will win Florida but it will once again get stolen by Bush in spite of everything the Dems can do to prevent it. A relative is heavily involved in the Dems attempt prevent fraud and he says it is going to be very, very difficult to prevent. The GOP has too much control and the deck has been stacked.


Ed

edited to add:

I agree with Og also.

 

[Couture]

Kerry will win Florida but it will once again get stolen by Bush in spite of everything the Dems can do to prevent it. A relative is heavily involved in the Dems attempt prevent fraud and he says it is going to be very, very difficult to prevent. The GOP has too much control and the deck has been stacked.

I don't know about that. I for one am not just going to lie down and let my democracy be stolen. I will personally kick the ass of anyone who attempts to challenge my vote today. If they want to mosh, then we'll mosh.

 

[Lauren Hynde]

PA to Kerry (over 5%)
OH to Kerry (3%)
FL to Kerry (2%)
NH to Kerry (2%)
NM to Kerry (0.01%)

Final Results:
Kerry - 311
Bush - 227

 

[Pure]

That provides hope, Lauren. Your predictions, depending on their source confirm the Princeton statistician's at

http://www.princeton.edu/~sswang/pollcalc.html

(see map)

 

[Pure]

For the record, Amicus gives all the five mentioned states (OH FL NM NH) except PA to Bush.

 

[pussy chaser]

I predict that i will have one hell of a hangover tomorrow, and it is so nice of the Americans to help celebrate my birthday with having an election on the same day

 

[pussy chaser]

PS..did you know you have had 12 different presidents since donald duck made his 1st appearance in 1934

 

[Guest]

I predict that i will have one hell of a hangover tomorrow, and it is so nice of the Americans to help celebrate my birthday with having an election on the same day

LOL!

Happy Birthday, Pussy Chaser!!!

Lou

 

[Pure]

For the record,

Kerry wins OH, PA, NM, but not FL or NH.

Kerry 276, Bush 262. (Assuming K wins IA)

 

[BlackShanglan]

I predict a month of whining and wrangling no matter who wins. Somewhere, someone will be close enough that we'll have another four years of "they stole the election!"

Where's my sherry ...

 

[Somme]

PS..did you know you have had 12 different presidents since donald duck made his 1st appearance in 1934

<nods>......a hell of an act to measure up to, too.

 

[Guest]

A lying, thieving, bacstabbing, money-grubbing, powerhungry, corrupt sonovabitch who doesn't give a rodents rectum what your cry-baby, whiney-assed oppinion really is.

Pretty much fits 'em all.

I win and lose either way.

 

[sweetnpetite]

I predict a perfect tie, down to the last vote, in a final deciding swing state.

I mean, hey...

#L

According to the CIA sourcebook, during the last election all gore and gwb recieved an equal amount of the popular vote. 48%each.

"election results: George W. BUSH elected president; percent of popular vote - George W. BUSH (Republican Party) 48%, Albert A. GORE, Jr. (Democratic Party) 48%, Ralph NADER (Green Party) 3%, other 1%"

http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/us.html

 

[Quiet_Cool]

With :33 to go in overtime, George W. Bush hits Tom Ridge for 38 yards. TOUCHDOWN!
(Cheney extra point: Good)

 

[Pure]

ah, come on, sweet, give us your prediction.

 

[Pure]

NEWS

LIAR wins on the overall prediction (tie). Off by 7.

AMICUS wins on the five named states.
Overall, off by 62

Pure off, overall, by 26, runner up, but excessive immodesty noted.

 

[Lauren Hynde]

I had previously decided that the overall impression that most Americans are idiots had to be wrong, based mostly on you, the intelligent and informed people I came to know from here. Last night proved me wrong. The idiots really do outnumber the rest.

Today, the whole world (except Israel) has not only lost its admiration towards the US, but also its respect.

The only doubt is whether 51% of the American voters are living in a parallel universe where news reports don't exist or if they do know what's going on and just don't give a damn.

 

[Pure]

Yes, lots of 'idiots.' Idiots willing to 'go it alone' ('stay the course'). About 51%, 59 million, or a margin of about 3.5 million.

I'd buy the parallel universe theory, esp. as regards lack of exposure to accurate news and lots of exposure to Fox network, etc.

It might be added that war creates 'idiocy.' Perhaps you remember Thatcher's boost from the Faulklands war. (Fear, also.) If you're familiar with the Vietnam era in the States, you might consider how many years the majority, and both parties, went along with it. In relative terms, for Iraq, the US is just not mired and battered enough for the public to question things just yet. Middle class kids are not drafted or (in general) dying.