Lost Cause
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According to the best estimates, in 2004 the Earth is predicted to cut through the densest part of the Perseid stream sometime around 7 a.m. ET on Thursday, Aug. 12. Activity could be high for a few hours on either side of that time.
The late-night hours of Wednesday, Aug. 11, on through the first light of dawn on the morning holds the promise of seeing a very fine Perseid display. The bright light of a Full Moon almost totally wrecked last year’s shower, but this year it will be a lovely crescent, about 3½ days before New phase. Moreover, it will not rise until around 2:30 a.m. local daylight time on the morning of the12th, hovering to the east of brilliant Venus.
Lyytinen and Van Flandern believe that this year the Earth will pass through a trail of debris shed by Comet Swift-Tuttle during its 1862 visit. The closest that Earth will come to the center of this debris trail will be 123,000 miles (200,000 kilometers).
The time of the closest approach should be 4:50 p.m. ET (20:50 GMT) on Aug. 11 and could last about 40 minutes, favoring observers in Eastern Europe, eastern North Africa eastward to central Russia, India, and western China. Unfortunately, if a sudden bevy of Perseids materializes, North Americans would miss out, since it happen during local afternoon hours. "I would expect a short peak of a few hundred meteors per hour, though they should be mostly faint," said Lyytinen.
http://www******.com/spacewatch/040806_perseid_guide.html
http://www******.com/spacewatch/meteor_forecast.html
The late-night hours of Wednesday, Aug. 11, on through the first light of dawn on the morning holds the promise of seeing a very fine Perseid display. The bright light of a Full Moon almost totally wrecked last year’s shower, but this year it will be a lovely crescent, about 3½ days before New phase. Moreover, it will not rise until around 2:30 a.m. local daylight time on the morning of the12th, hovering to the east of brilliant Venus.
Lyytinen and Van Flandern believe that this year the Earth will pass through a trail of debris shed by Comet Swift-Tuttle during its 1862 visit. The closest that Earth will come to the center of this debris trail will be 123,000 miles (200,000 kilometers).
The time of the closest approach should be 4:50 p.m. ET (20:50 GMT) on Aug. 11 and could last about 40 minutes, favoring observers in Eastern Europe, eastern North Africa eastward to central Russia, India, and western China. Unfortunately, if a sudden bevy of Perseids materializes, North Americans would miss out, since it happen during local afternoon hours. "I would expect a short peak of a few hundred meteors per hour, though they should be mostly faint," said Lyytinen.
http://www******.com/spacewatch/040806_perseid_guide.html
http://www******.com/spacewatch/meteor_forecast.html
