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Just the Polls

LLCox said:
You have half a dozen go to quips that you have absolutely worn out. Now, come back with, "WTF are you talking about."
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That's reserved for threads without sources, sorry.
 
ll74 said:
That's it. Post a political poll. Just one. Could be on anything like policies, candidates, parties, Presidents. I prefer the source of the poll along with high level outcomes, but won't be upset as long as the source is available in some regard.
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The reason behind this is that I typically see threads of polls which support an author's perspective or fav candidate, but refrain when those same polls turn sour against the same. So I expect that people will post theirs and their opposition will post theirs and we may see the balance that exists more than not.
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I do encourage folks to go to sites like FiveThirtyEight.com and RealClearPolitics.com which do a fairly good job of collecting polls annd weighting them based on credibility. If, for no other reason than to see a good number of polls curated in one place.
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Please feel free to PM me with additional resources that you believe should be added here.

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Basic rules:
1. When possible, provide the originating source of the poll rather than articles referring to them. (I may follow up article posts with the originator from time to time - it's not meant to be a criticism or shit post).
2. If you can't provide the URL to your poll, it's your fault. "Google it" is not relevant.

My perspective is that polls be provided for objective information. Having your own commentary is fine, but this thread is meant to allow others to have their own perspective and therefore have access to the same originating data. Don't blame others if you can't understand this.
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Thank you, thank you, thank you.
 

Republicans Worry as Red State Polls Look ‘Worse Than They Should’ for Trump​

With Harris leading the Democratic ticket, Republicans are increasingly concerned about “softening support” for Trump

This month, GOP operatives and others close to Donald Trump have grown increasingly nervous over trends they’ve seen in recent private polling data produced by different Republican organizations and conservative allies.

It’s not just the swing-state polling or the national surveys that are causing distress lately. The anxiety-spiking numbers are coming out of Trump strongholds like Ohio and Florida, according to three GOP sources, including two people close to the former president, who have reviewed the private polls.

“They’re looking worse than they should,” one Republican operative who has seen the internal data tells Rolling Stone. “Donald Trump is not losing Florida or Ohio, but that isn’t what’s concerning… It’s a trend of softening support.”

The polling results are a mirror image of what spooked Democratic operatives — prior to President Joe Biden dropping out of the 2024 contest — when both public and private polling data showed Biden shedding support in safe terrain like Minnesota, New Mexico, Virginia, and even New York. The question was never, for instance, if the president would win New York; his soft support in liberal bastions foretold doom in critical battleground states.

https://www.rollingstone.com/politi...republicans-worry-red-state-polls-1235080588/
 
jaF0 said:

rump's Losing Baby Boomers, Silent Generation to Kamala Harris​

Republicans have carried voters over 65 in every presidential election since 2000, but a new poll shows Harris with the advantage.
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This is huge, if true (we're still within the margin of error, but to see Harris leading in the Boomer demographic is a seismic shock!)

Interestingly, the rather large gap in favorability between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance might be the tipping point in the election.

Older folks simply don't appear to like Vance.

Makes you wonder if the results would have been different had convicted felon Donald Trump selected someone more amenable to old folks.

Just imagine if Kristi Noehm's publisher had the common sense to edit out the controversial portion of her autobiography dealing with her passion for shooting dogs. Trump picks her as Veep and gets elected, has a "mysterious" fatal stroke a month after assuming the throne once more in 2025, and Noehm is now acting dictator.

Her first imperial decree as American monarch:
Dogs that fail obedience school are dispatched to military bases, where they are used for target practice in live fire exercises.

A very different America.
 
Here's what is going on at the election polls:

Alabama Secretary of State Discovers THOUSANDS of ILLEGALS Registered to Vote in November’s Presidential Election​

by Julian Conradson Aug. 16, 2024 9:30 am

It doesn’t even have to be a swing state… State officials have discovered over 3,000 illegal voters registered on Alabama’s state voter rolls. This report comes following Secretary of State Wes Allen ordering the removal of all non-citizens from the election database.

During the officials’ review, the state found a whopping 3,251 individuals with ‘alien registration numbers’ who were registered to vote – despite it being a federal offense. The U.S. Constitution and federal laws unequivocally stipulate that only U.S. citizens are entitled to vote in federal elections.


Secretary Allen’s decisive action to remove these non-citizens from the voter rolls is a necessary step to rectify this situation. However, the discovery raises critical questions about how such a lapse occurred in the first place.

According to reports from WAFF, the exact method by which these individuals were able to register remains unclear.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/20...discovers-thousands-illegals-registered-vote/

Nothing to see here though, right?
 
Rightguide said:
Here's what is going on at the election polls:

Alabama Secretary of State Discovers THOUSANDS of ILLEGALS Registered to Vote in November’s Presidential Election​

by Julian Conradson Aug. 16, 2024 9:30 am

It doesn’t even have to be a swing state… State officials have discovered over 3,000 illegal voters registered on Alabama’s state voter rolls. This report comes following Secretary of State Wes Allen ordering the removal of all non-citizens from the election database.

During the officials’ review, the state found a whopping 3,251 individuals with ‘alien registration numbers’ who were registered to vote – despite it being a federal offense. The U.S. Constitution and federal laws unequivocally stipulate that only U.S. citizens are entitled to vote in federal elections.


Secretary Allen’s decisive action to remove these non-citizens from the voter rolls is a necessary step to rectify this situation. However, the discovery raises critical questions about how such a lapse occurred in the first place.

According to reports from WAFF, the exact method by which these individuals were able to register remains unclear.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/20...discovers-thousands-illegals-registered-vote/

Nothing to see here though, right?
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This isn't a poll dipshit
 
butters said:
can someone explain to me the difference between 'popular vote probability' and 'predicted popular vote share'?
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Fudge. Explanation of those two are hidden behind "subscriber only" paywall. I am not certain of the difference.
 
Democratic Congressman Adam Schiff holds a clear lead in the race for California's open Senate seat.

In a poll released Thursday by the University of California Berkeley, Schiff was backed by 53 percent of 3,765 Californians likely to vote in the November election. His Republican challenger, former Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres star first baseman Steve Garvey, trailed by 20 points, earning 33 percent of the vote.
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https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/poli...&cvid=cd09bd04016748cc8371f506394d54ec&ei=162
 
Four Sun-Belt states appear to be back in play for Democrats with Vice President Kamala Harris narrowing the gap with former president Donald Trump in Georgia and Nevada and taking the lead in Arizona and North Carolina, a recent New York Times/Siena College poll found.

Harris currently holds a five-percentage-point polling advantage over Trump among likely voters in Arizona at 50 percent to 45 percent, and she has moved in front of the former president in North Carolina with a two-point lead.
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https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/poli...p&cvid=1d46551645c845fab80866d67aa75986&ei=28


:coffee: 🌴
 
butters said:
can someone explain to me the difference between 'popular vote probability' and 'predicted popular vote share'?
Click to expand...

Popular vote probability: the probability the candidate will receive the most votes

Predicted popular vote share: the percentage of the vote they think the candidate will get
 
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