For Posterity

[Ziggins]

This is not yet a blip in the world population, 7.8 billion and still rising.

 

[VaticanAssassin]

More and more prevalence studies are coming out. With the exception of NY, they are all in line with my model. I’m not ready to include the NY numbers in to my model. I consider it a outlier for now. Or maybe I just like how correct my model is but if I did prevalence would increase and mortality would decrease.

 

[bellisarius]

The only thing the shutdown has achieved is to spread the curve. I suppose that has some merit but its served its purpose and it's time to move on.

 

[Wrong Element]

Since this is what I do for a living (well, use to before becoming upper management)
Here are the current results of my model:

I have a current prevalence of 5.4%. So 17.8m cases, 38k deaths, .21% mortality
By the end of year prevalence will be 6.97%. So 23million cases, mortality stays constant for 49k deaths. W/O social distance the numbers would have been 37mill and 78k deaths at a prevalence of 11.34%

This compares to the flu at 35mill and 34k deaths.

So now you all can come back in 2021 and laugh at how wrong my numbers turn out because you don’t understand how models work...

Obsolete before the end of the week. Even for you, that's impressively terrible.

 

[VaticanAssassin]

The only thing the shutdown has achieved is to spread the curve. I suppose that has some merit but its served its purpose and it's time to move on.

It slowed the rate of spread. Keeping everyone from getting sick at once. Social distancing will not/did not change the overall mortality rate that will end up being .01 to .03.

At the end of the day, unless there is a medical break through, most people will eventually get it. Virus going virus.

In the end, I suspect the shutdown will kill more people via suicide, drug overdose, and increased alcohol related deaths.

Time will tell.

 

[Fuzzy1975]

Since this is what I do for a living (well, use to before becoming upper management)
Here are the current results of my model:

I have a current prevalence of 5.4%. So 17.8m cases, 38k deaths, .21% mortality
By the end of year prevalence will be 6.97%. So 23million cases, mortality stays constant for 49k deaths. W/O social distance the numbers would have been 37mill and 78k deaths at a prevalence of 11.34%

This compares to the flu at 35mill and 34k deaths.

So now you all can come back in 2021 and laugh at how wrong my numbers turn out because you don’t understand how models work...

More and more prevalence studies are coming out. With the exception of NY, they are all in line with my model. I’m not ready to include the NY numbers in to my model. I consider it a outlier for now. Or maybe I just like how correct my model is but if I did prevalence would increase and mortality would decrease.

So you are now at 51,743 deaths, how is that model working out eh?

 

[VaticanAssassin]

Obsolete before the end of the week. Even for you, that's impressively terrible.

You should learn to read......

 

[bellisarius]

It slowed the rate of spread. Keeping everyone from getting sick at once. Social distancing will not/did not change the overall mortality rate that will end up being .01 to .03.

At the end of the day, unless there is a medical break through, most people will eventually get it. Virus going virus.

In the end, I suspect the shutdown will kill more people via suicide, drug overdose, and increased alcohol related deaths.

Time will tell.

Agreed. It's going to spread, no matter what, until we get to "herd immunity" and that is when 60% to 80% (depending on the "expert" you talk to) of the population has had it and recovered.

This virus is of the same family as the common cold and will probably mutate in the same manner. The only question is will that mutation become more virulent or less?

 

[Fuzzy1975]

Agreed. It's going to spread, no matter what, until we get to "herd immunity" and that is when 60% to 80% (depending on the "expert" you talk to) of the population has had it and recovered.

Currently only 2% 3% of recovered COVID-19 virus people are showing any signs of retained anti-bodies after 40-50 days. This low number is both puzzling and potential freighting. Does this mean people may be subjected to repeated infections with the virus?

Is it that the testing is not truly reflecting how the immune system is adjusting to a new first time virus exposure?

So many questions.

One thing I have learned from reading reports etc from experts on virology, currently no one is an expert on the subject of the COVID-19 virus.

 

[Lancecastor19]

Current deaths in the United States are attributed to the Virus as long as the deceased tests positive at the time of death, regardless of the actual cause of death, or preexisting life threatening causes. Hospitals have economic incentives to report deaths as Corona related as well.

Fake Deaths!

 

[bellisarius]

Currently only 2% 3% of recovered COVID-19 virus people are showing any signs of retained anti-bodies after 40-50 days. This low number is both puzzling and potential freighting. Does this mean people may be subjected to repeated infections with the virus?

Is it that the testing is not truly reflecting how the immune system is adjusting to a new first time virus exposure?

So many questions.

One thing I have learned from reading reports etc from experts on virology, currently no one is an expert on the subject of the COVID-19 virus.

How many colds have you had in your lifetime?

 

[SpeareChucker]

The only thing the shutdown has achieved is to spread the curve. I suppose that has some merit but its served its purpose and it's time to move on.

As presaged, it has become politicized power and the frightened
are willing to let this drag on forever if



it saves just one life!

Just ONE!



Redneck translation: MINE!

 

[SpeareChucker]

How many colds have you had in your lifetime?

Better yet, what is the source of that "statistic?"

 

[bellisarius]

As presaged, it has become politicized power and the frightened
are willing to let this drag on forever if



it saves just one life!

Just ONE!



Redneck translation: MINE!

Seriously, everyone needs to tell the government "Fuck You!!" and go back to work. As Vat pointed out the NYC numbers are skewing the curve and the rest of the nation isn't NYC.

 

[SpeareChucker]

I pointed that out too,
but I think that some people are allowing
a hatred of Trump, not limited to these shores, to
cloud perception permitting fears to be built on ever-increasing
crumbling foundations of insecurity and trepidation about the future in general,
which has, because of these group illusions, metastasized into a self-fulfilling prophecy...

They knew that Trump was going to be a disaster and look! we are inundated with disaster!

Those January 2017 predictions of Doom and Gloom are starting to look pretty damned prescient now,
allowing of course, that if there had been no virus, it would have been the warnings that kept the new Hitler from acting...





Funny, though, maybe even ironically, as concerned as they are that Trump would exhibit totalitarian leanings,
it is their governors exorcising raw, unmitigated power that they are extremely comfortable with,
after all, this all falls hardest on deplorable Trump voters...

 

[bellisarius]

It's quite clear that there are some politicians perfectly willing to tank the economy and ruin peoples lives for political and power gains.

More recall petitions need to be fired up.

 

[Conager]

This is not yet a blip in the world population, 7.8 billion and still rising.

I have no doubt that this is in the end going to be found to have contributed disastrously to global warming

You got lots and lots of people who should be contributing to the health of the planet by dying and tragic accident, who are home safe, breathing out planet-killing carbon dioxide and eating steaks.

And in 9 to 12 months from now there's going to be a baby boom.

 

[SpeareChucker]

Okay Con...



That was funny.

Grain of truth funny.

 

[bellisarius]

Okay Con...



That was funny.

Grain of truth funny.

It was.

 

[Bas_van_Fraassen]

How many colds have you had in your lifetime?

How many strains of cold virus are there?

 

[bellisarius]

No immunity


Which means there probably isn't going to be a vaccine that has any longevity either.

How long you think you can shut things down again?

 

[Comshaw]

Since this is what I do for a living (well, use to before becoming upper management)
Here are the current results of my model:

I have a current prevalence of 5.4%. So 17.8m cases, 38k deaths, .21% mortality
By the end of year prevalence will be 6.97%. So 23million cases, mortality stays constant for 49k deaths. W/O social distance the numbers would have been 37mill and 78k deaths at a prevalence of 11.34%

This compares to the flu at 35mill and 34k deaths.

So now you all can come back in 2021 and laugh at how wrong my numbers turn out because you don’t understand how models work...

So educate this semi educated mechanic:
Your model is calling for 49k deaths by the end of the year with social distancing, 78k without? We're at 57,084 now. We have 1,015,277 confirmed cases to date and 818,602 active cases. The confirmed cases/death ration is at 5.6%. Using those numbers we will have another 45,842 deaths by the end of the year, or 102,426 total. That's not even speculating on any new cases which will add to that total.

So how can your model projection be accurate?

Comshaw

 

[butters]

expected deaths rise with latest modeling

"State-level forecasts vary widely, reflecting differences in early epidemic phases, timing of interventions and model-specific assumptions," the CDC says.
Models that factor in strong contact reduction suggest deaths will continue to occur, but will "slow substantially over the next four weeks," the CDC said.
"Conversely, models that do not incorporate as strong contact reductions ... suggest that total deaths may continue to rise quickly."

One model frequently cited by the White House coronavirus task force has upped its predicted death toll again, this time projecting 74,000 Americans will lose their lives to the virus by August.
The projection was adjusted because of longer peaks in some states and signs that people are becoming more active again, according to Dr. Chris Murray, director of the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

Last week, the model projected 67,641 deaths from Covid-19

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/28/health/us-coronavirus-tuesday/index.html

 

[bellisarius]

So educate this semi educated mechanic:
Your model is calling for 49k deaths by the end of the year with social distancing, 78k without? We're at 57,084 now. We have 1,015,277 confirmed cases to date and 818,602 active cases. The confirmed cases/death ration is at 5.6%. Using those numbers we will have another 45,842 deaths by the end of the year, or 102,426 total. That's not even speculating on any new cases which will add to that total.

So how can your model projection be accurate?

Comshaw

New York numbers are thrown out for obvious reasons. No social distancing and several thousand death certificates altered to reflect the Wuhan Flu as cause.

 

[Comshaw]

New York numbers are thrown out for obvious reasons. No social distancing and several thousand death certificates altered to reflect the Wuhan Flu as cause.

Why would you try to skew the base numbers of a model that is designed to forecast the outcome of the epidemic? A bit on the slimy side don't you think? Besides his last set of numbers were with no social distancing and it appears we will be way beyond those too.

W/O social distance the numbers would have been 37mill and 78k deaths at a prevalence of 11.34%

comshaw